Congratulations to Yokozuna Terunofuji on a well-deserved 9th career yusho! Now that the dust has settled on the Hatsu basho, it’s time for our usual look at what the results might mean for the Haru banzuke. Unlike last time, when the ranking changes were quite predictable, this banzuke is a challenge to put together. This is a largely a consequence of the strong performance of the upper ranks. The Yokozuna, Ozeki, Sekiwake, and M1e Wakamotoharu combined for a total win-loss differential of +43, and someone had to eat all those losses. Both Komusubi had losing records, and between Wakamotoharu going 10-5 at M1e and Asanoyama achieving 9 wins at M7w, there were only two winning records: M2w Abi (8-7) and M5w Nishikigi (8-7). Combine that with Kotonowaka’s upcoming Ozeki promotion, which expands the san’yaku ranks from 8 to 9, and there are a lot of open slots to fill, which will require some extreme over-promotions and under-demotions.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
This is the easy part. With Kirishima falling short of 13 wins and/or yusho that might have led to promotion, Terunofuji will remain as our sole Yokozuna since Hakuho’s retirement. But we will have 4 Ozeki for the first time since July, 2021 and only the 4th time since the quartet of Kisenosato, Terunofuji, Kotoshogiku, and Goeido held the rank for 10 straight basho in 2015-2017. The three incumbents—Kirishima, Hoshoryu, and Takakeisho—will be joined by newcomer Kotonowaka (or will it be Kotozakura?) Only Takakeisho, who withdrew after 3 days, will be kadoban at Haru, where he will require a winning record to maintain his rank.
Sekiwake and Komusubi
S1w Daieisho (9-6) is the only incumbent member of the lower san’yaku who will stay there, reaching 6 straight basho at Sekiwake. He will be joined at the rank by the only maegashira with a clear promotion case—Wakamotoharu, who’ll be returning to the rank he’d occupied since last May after a one-basho absence. With Takayasu withdrawing (twice) and Ura only managing 6 wins, we have two Komusubi slots to fill. The first has to go to Abi. The second is a coin flip between Nishikigi and Asanoyama; whoever gets it will receive one of the luckiest promotions to Komusubi in the modern era in terms of his rank and record.
Upper Maegashira
This is where things get really challenging. Remember, we only had 4 winning records at M1-M7, and we’ll have used up 3 of them to fill the lower san’yaku. The two obvious candidates here are Ura and whoever between Nishikigi and Asanoyama misses out on the last Komusubi slot. After that, it has to be a combination of very lenient demotions of incumbents like M1w Atamifuji (6-9), M2e Midorifuji and M3e Gonoyama, both 5-10, and M4e Tobizaru and M6e Kinbozan (7-8). That only gets us up to 7 rikishi to occupy the 12 slots from M1 to M6, so we’ll need to rely on some very generous promotions for wrestlers like M8w Hiradoumi (8-7), M9w Meisei (9-6), M11e Tsurugisho (9-6), M11w Oho (10-5), and M12e Takanosho (10-5). Not the kind of rank-record combinations we’d like to see in the joi, but beggars can’t be choosers.
Division Exchanges
This is also not completely straightforward. Some rikishi clearly earned a seat on the Juryo barge, and there are clear-cut promotion candidates to replace them, but there’s also a middle ground of potential exchanges that could go either way. The three obvious demotions are winless M17w Aoiyama, M16w Bushozan (4-11), whose third appearance in the top division wasn’t any more successful than the first two, and M15e Tomokaze (5-10). The top two candidates to take their places are making an immediate return to Makuuchi: J2e Nishikifuji (10-5) and J3w Kitanowaka (10-5). Three other Juryo men have rank-record combinations that warrant promotion. New sekitori J10e Takerufuji (13-2) is looking to become only the 9th wrestler in the six-basho era to get through Juryo in a single basho. The latest Isegahama phenom just completed his 8th professional basho, owns a career record of 56-8, and added the Juryo yusho to the ones he won in Jonokuchi and Jonidan; he has yet to lose more than 2 bouts in any tournament. J3e Roga (9-6) is looking to rebound right back to Makuuchi after his rough first basho there, and J1e Daiamami (8-7) managed the 8 wins that almost always suffice for promotion of the top-ranked man in the division; the last of his several top-division appearances came in July of 2022. To make room for this trio, we need two more demotions, and the likeliest candidates are M16e Takarafuji (6-9), who owns the longest current uninterrupted run in the top division, starting in January, 2013, and injury victim M8e Hokuseiho (2-4-9).
We could get the 5 exchanges as above, or someone (Takerufuji, by virtue of his lower rank?) could miss out in favor of keeping either Takarafuji or Hokuseiho. One could also make a case for demoting M12w Myogiryu or (more likely) M13w Endo, both 5-10, and bringing up J2w Tohakuryu (8-7) and/or J6e Tokihayate (10-5), though such borderline calls usually go in favor of the incumbents.
The March banzuke comes out on February 26, and I should have a more complete banzuke prediction post up before then. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments!
Discover more from Tachiai (立合い)
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Takerufuji only faced 2 opponents in the Juryo top 5, and he lost both matches. I expect Takerufuji to be left in Juryo, with Hokuseiho staying up.
It’s certainly possible; I don’t know if they’ll take into account the fact that Hokuseiho is known to be out for March.
In my guessed banzuke I demoted Endo instead of Hakuseiho exactly because I hoped they would give the tower two basho’s time before falling out of the salaried ranks after his injury.
Plus Endo, together with Takarafuji and of course Shimanoumi (!) would be an attraction for Juryo while in Makuuchi he at the moment seems to be unable to cope.
The Kyokai seems to demote kyujo competitors quicker than those who fight.
Well, if he drops, he’ll probably be J1, and an absence at that rank should only drop him to the bottom of Juryo.
Takerufuji took the yusho with 3 (in words: three) wins more than any other rikishi, he was a rookie and the maths are clearly pro promotion! In my mind there can be no question about him fighting in Makuuchi next time.
This is definitely a basho where everything will come down to how much the committee wants to shake things up. Would the rikishi from Juryo get over-promoted based on the current state of the banzuke? This feels like there’s going to be a lot of negotiating going on while things are sorted out. Hokuseiho’s fate will be determined either by him being used to plug a gap or moved to make room for someone else. I would think that because of the number of promotable candidates from Juryo he’ll fall into the latter category (especially with how long he’ll be out of action), but we’ll have to see what happens. My knee-jerk assumption is that we’ll get the minimum number of promotions they can’t avoid because that’s what they seem to do most of the time.
Off topic but thinking today…if they didn’t f____ Uncle (Asashoryu) does Hak Yusho 40+ times?
I think no.
On topic I’d rather we keep Takarafuji. The man deserves it and I can’t stand to watch Hokuseiho unless he’s getting tossed by someone a fraction of his size.
The Joi will be very weird this time around. I can’t wait to see what they come up with once that sake barrel’s seal breaks and they sit down to it.
I also can’t wait for the prediction here in full.
Thank you Tachiai team – loving your coverage as ever.
“Off topic but thinking today…if they didn’t f____ Uncle (Asashoryu) does Hak Yusho 40+ times?”
I think the prevailing wisdom on this would be that the “they” in question was Asashoryu himself. In another era he might have been made to go intai a few years prior.
Juryo could be an interesting battle in March if Wakatakage, Hakuoho and Takerufji are all there. It would be nice to see Takarafuji battle back up as well if he drops down.
As to the hypothetical, he was definitely not the force he had been a few years earlier, Hakuho was coming into his prime, and the balance of power between them had shifted, so a few yusho would probably have changed hands, but I’d guess not that many.
I know, one tends to remember it like that, but I beg to differ.
Of the twelve basho Asashoryu and Hakuho both fought as Yokozuna, Asa won five and Hak four (plus two more when Asa pulled out after a few matches). Of Asas four last basho at the beginning of 2009 both won two.
Therefore it seems to me, they were both at the same level when the JSA unfortunately put an end to that fascinating duel.
Time was clearly on Hakuho’s side. In 2009 Hakuho lost 4 bouts, Asashoryu lost 18.
Maybe Asashoryu could have gotten closer to 30 and maybe he would have slowed the rise of some others, but he was clearly not the same level as Hakuho anymore and not getting younger either.
Unfortunately my first sumo tournament was march 2010, so I never got to see the two fight.
Exactly. People watch those last few bouts between Hakuho and Asashoryu and believe they were still of equal skill, but you’re not winning yusho in one bout, but in 15. Asashoryu was clearly not the same force he used to be, and it was very obvious to anyone who was watching at the time and not a blinkered Asashoryu superfan. His biggest issue was that he struggled to actually get through a full tournament in one piece anymore, having to power through the second half of many basho at a much lower physical level than he’d start them with.
Asashoryu was very lucky that his career ended when it did. In all likelihood, if he’d have been active 2010-2012, he just would have been the same type of second fiddle to Hakuho that Harumafuji was from 2013 onward, and nobody would look at his late career through rose-tinted glasses.
After Asashoryu sat out the second half of 2008 with injuries and came back at Hatsu 2009, they met 7 times in regulation, with Hakuho taking all 7, although Asashoryu did win their 2 playoff bouts.
People who subscribe to the “they were still equal” notion – if they bother to look beyond their H2H matches at all – usually excuse most of those losses by saying that they weren’t decisive for the yusho, unlike the playoffs. He was still great “when it mattered”.
But that unintentionally points at a different aspect of 2009 Asashoryu: In his last few tournaments, people started to remark that his physique didn’t look as defined as it used to be, questioning his motivation levels now that he was no longer top dog, and wondering how much longer he’d stick around. Of course most rikishi get retired by fans long before it actually happens, but still, that kind of talk wouldn’t come up for somebody who’s still universally seen as a co-equal #1, so he clearly wasn’t.
With the widening gulf in ability between him and Hakuho, and his ongoing war of attrition with the NSK leadership, I have little doubt that even without the incident that ended his career at the start of 2010, he would have lasted no more than 24 months from there. Either a different career-ending situation would have happened or he would have said, “I’ve had it.”
(I daresay he also got lucky to be gone before the match-fixing scandal hit sumo in early 2011 – irrespective of whether there was anything to find, given his low reputation with parts of the press they almost certainly would have gone digging for yaocho dirt on him, because they had tried before and the chance would have been too good to pass up.)
…on the other hand I am one of those who think that Hakuho probably gave yusho away to Kakuryu and Ama later on, because he didn’t like to fulfill all the Yokozuna duties alone.
The content of Asanoyama’s sumo was better and he won a much higher percentage of matches he competed in, but I have a feeling if it’s a coin flip that Nishikigi gets the promotion due to completing the basho.
I would be curious though how many times in edge cases like this the tie goes to the guy who was in some part kyujo.
From Juryo, I’m assuming the four guys going down are Tenshoho, Yuma, Chiyosakae and Tochimusashi. Chiyomaru seems fairly lucky with a 10 loss basho at J12 to survive based on there simply being no other candidates for promotion.
Nishikigi had a bit less weak opponents than Asanoyama as his rank was near the jo’i, he even fought Terunofuji. And Asanoyama wasn’t able to deliver in his only fight against a Sanyaku. Therefore I see no reason while he should overtake Nishikigi.
Correct; there is at least precedent (though only one!) for keeping at J12e with 10 losses.
It‘s not that long ago when Kiribayama changed his shikona to Kirishima. Indeed only eight months since Ozeki promotion…
Thanks to lksumo for the previous banzuke puzzle work!
Is there a historical precedent for an Ozeki temporarily filling a vacant Sekiwake slot (like a Yokuzuna can help out when there are less than two Ozekis)? In this case Wakamotoharu and Abi could be promoted to Komusubi, Nishikigi and Asanoyama would remain Maegashira.
Good question; I don’t believe there is. A Yokozuna can serve as a Yokozuna-Ozeki, but that’s because historically Ozeki was the highest rank, with Yokozuna added later, first just as an extra honorific distinguishing the best Ozeki, and only more recently as an actual rank.
I absolutely guarantee you this will not happen. Nishikigi or Asanoyama getting promoted to Komusubi is not that big a deal.
from Sumo wiki: “At any time there must be a minimum of two wrestlers ranked at sekiwake. If circumstances require, this can rise typically to three or four. The minimum of two requirement means that a certain amount of luck can lead to wrestlers achieving this rank on occasion, if the performance of other wrestlers leaves no obvious candidates to fill the rank. This luck factor is less common than it is for komusubi promotions.”
The weakest komusubi promotions I can find since 1958 are an M6w with an 8-7 and an M8e with a 9-6. I don’t know how much worse the candidates would have to get for them to drop a 6-9 sekiwake at K or do something else unconventional.
Did Kirishima change his shikona back to Kiribayama?
I too think along the same lines regarding the top of the Maegashira ranks and the demotion/promotion mess. It will be interesting to see how they pull this off. Like you said, lenient demotions and generous promotions are probably what we’ll see.
Man, I keep doing that!
Kotonowaka sez he’s not changing his shikona till May’s honbasho, gives you another one to forget about, lol
I still think his original Kotokamatani shikona was pretty awesome … I guess I no longer think of Takakeisho as Sato, so that’s something lol
I wonder just how high Onosho will be over-promoted for next basho, after being over-demoted for the previous one. He’s got previous experience in the joi, but from his current rank, it’d be some gargantuan banzuke luck to be back up there in March. Yet I look around and see few others worthy of taking one of those spots. Also, will the upcoming banzuke perhaps set a record for the most rikishi staying in place from one basho to the next?
According to my draft Onosho should be in the mid-maegashira ranks. Probably better for his March score. And I only see a couple of rikishi staying at the same rank…
Given he got diddled out of his opening bout, I wouldn’t begrudge Onosho some luck. Although, maybe that got him fired up for the rest of the basho..
I’m new to sumo and banzuke: why did Wakamotoharu drop to maegashira and not just komusubi, and why is he potentially going back to sekiwake and not just komusubi? Why the komusubi leap frog?
In the modern era (since 1958), 6-9 at Sekiwake always gets someone dropped to M (the COVID basho aside). Why? That’s just how they do it (a 7-8 S always drops only to K). He’s going back to S because there must be two on the banzuke, and with Koto’s promotion, there’s an open slot, which he is by far the best candidate to fill.
I’d rather see a waning Takarafuji that watch Diaimaimi struggle to move that massive girth around the doyhyo. Doubt if he’d win more than 5 matches. just swing him around and push him out from behind. As for my personal favorite, I hope that Mitakeumi has enough left in him to have at least one more fantastic basho and win a prize before he needs to think about hanging up his mawashi. As for Shodai, I think he needs to consider throwing in the towel. Its getting embarrassing.
I think Hakuoho needs promoted past Juryo back to Makuuchi. He was demoted to far in my opinion after sitting out with an injury.
Promotions/demotions are done almost entirely according to a numerical algorithm based on how many wins someone got at a rank. Sitting out = zero wins = big demotion. They don’t take into account things like where someone’s true level is likely to be, or at least only minimally. Not saying I agree with them, but that’s the system.
Regardless of rankings, I’ll just be happy if some of them find their brand of sumo again. Ura, Atamifuji and Mirdorifuji all looked as though they were trying out a different style through the first 2/3 of the basho. Atamifuji was especially disappointing, considering his prior 2 bashos; he seemed uncomfortable in his body this time, getting stood up or dancing around the edges like Tobizaru and hoping for a lucky break. I’d like to see him return to a more mawashi-focused fighter who uses his weight and low center of gravity better.
Here’s the official announcement on Kotonowaka, for anyone waiting on that :
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15136329
https://sumo.or.jp/EnKyokai/information?id=629
I bet this is why Asanoyama came back injured; one win=KK was going to be enough for jumping rank
I think Asanoyama is more than worthy of a promotion.
Thank You Iksumo for all of your posts-I can always count on you for the best and accurate information and statistics!
I just now watched the youtube video of Kotnowaka’s Ozeki promotion – it was in Japanese but I enjoyed it. Best wishes to the new Ozeki! Still can’t wait to see Wakatakakage and Hakuoho’s return to Juryo too!
By the way, I liked the micro second clip of Ishiura on the final day at the end of NHK’s coverage!