Hoshoryu lost last night, leaving us with two undefeated leaders heading into Day 6: Kotonowaka and Asanoyama. Terunofuji and Kirishima are performing well despite the early upsets.
Late-breaking news tonight that Hokuseiho is kyujo. He injured his knee in last night’s bout against Shonannoumi and will sit out for the rest of the tournament. This puts him in real danger of demotion to Juryo, depending on how many promotion and demotion candidates we have.
Many of you will know that I love to make visualizations. One that I made a couple of years ago visualizes promotion and demotion history based on the previous tournament’s record. When we look at 2-win records by clicking on the small “2-win” bar, and use data from SumoDB going back to 1970, only in one instance the wrestler remained in Makuuchi and the rest are spread from J1 all the way to J6.
There is a small number of cases here, especially recent cases, so I am calling this as one of the early challenges for Guess the Banzuke participants. Hokuseiho’s chances of staying up will be made more certain if guys like Aoiyama, Endo, and Tomokaze continue to fare poorly and if there aren’t strong promotion candidates from Juryo. But slotting them appropriately will be the nature of your quest.
The same thing is possible via query on SumoDB, directly. I just like pretty charts because it makes it easier for me to see a trend than a text-based table. This data only goes through 2021 and needs an update. I’ll put it on the to-do list.
Well, let’s get to the action.
Makuuchi Highlights
Mitoryu (J1W, 3-3) defeated Shimazuumi (3-3). Shimazuumi drove forward at the tachiai and… Mitoryu slung him around and out. What was that? This is the best move I have seen from these early bouts and it was performed by a Juryo visitor. What a slick throw. How are they calling it oshidashi? That was a sukuinage or something.
Bushozan (3-3) defeated Tomokaze (1-5). Rather ineffective tsuppari from both as neither made much headway. Tomokaze’s clearly favoring that right leg and slipped as he started to yield ground. Oshitaoshi.
Onosato (5-1) defeated Takarafuji (3-3). Onosato dispatched Takarafuji with ease. Oshidashi.
Kotoshoho (5-1) defeated Aoiyama (0-6). Aoiyama threw one, two, three! slaps before Kotoshoho drove forward and shoved him out. Aoiyama is hurt, bad, and had trouble walking after the bout. Oshidashi.
Onosho (5-1) defeated Myogiryu (1-5). Myogiryu also looks hurt. Onosho shoved him out quickly. Tsukidashi.
Takanosho (4-2) defeated Tsurugisho (1-5). Tsurugisho whiffed with a half-hearted (maybe quarter-hearted) slap at the tachiai and Takanosho gingerly walked him out. Yorikiri.
Oho (5-1) defeated Endo (1-5). Endo made a better go of it but was no match for Oho. After his early slapdown attempt failed, Oho put his head down and drove forward and blasted Endo from the dohyo. Two female fans in the front row seemed thrilled by the premium-level fansa. Oshidashi.
Churanoumi (4-2) defeated Sadanoumi (1-5). Sadanoumi locked in and started to churn those legs…but they quickly started churning in reverse as Churanoumi plowed forward. Yorikiri.
Meisei (4-2) defeated Tamawashi (3-3). Meisei laid into Tamawashi and walked him out. Yorikiri.
Ichiyamamoto (2-4) defeated Mitakeumi (3-3). Mitakeumi never read the brief. Ichiyamamoto’s thing is tsuppari and misdirection. Mitakeumi fell forward on his face. Hikiotoshi.
Hiradoumi (4-2) defeated Shonannoumi (1-5). Shonannoumi’s slapdown attempts were ineffective as Hiradoumi plugged ahead. Yorikiri.
Halftime
Ryuden (3-3) fusen, Hokuseiho (2-4) kyujo.
Asanoyama (6-0) defeated Nishikigi (3-3). Great belt battle here as Asanoyama fought to get his favorite grip and Nishikigi did what he could to stop him. Once Asanoyama got the left-hand inside, he started to tug, hard while trying to also lock up the right. It wasn’t needed as he dropped Nishikigi to the clay. Shitatenage.
Kinbozan (3-3) defeated Shodai (3-3). Shodai nearly pulled off something clever as he escaped with a clever little swim move/slapdown. Unfortunately, when Kinbozan recovered his balance, Shodai couldn’t get himself righted to launch an attack on Kinbozan. Instead, Kinbozan re-engaged from behind. Okuridashi.
Hokutofuji (4-2) defeated Midorifuji (1-5). Hokutofuji’s tsuppari was effective at keeping Midorifuji at bay and set up a well-timed slapdown. Hatakikomi.
Sanyaku
Takayasu (2-2-2) defeated Ura (1-5). The suicide throw here as both men had opposing belt grips and attempted to tip the other over. Ura’s head hit first. Ouch. Uwatenage.
Wakamotoharu (3-3) defeated Kotonowaka (5-1). Kotonowaka tried to keep Wakamotoharu at bay with a left hand to WMH’s face. When Wakamotoharu batted it away, Kotonowaka stumbled forward. Wakamotoharu pounced as Kotonowaka attempted to regain his balance and position at the center of the ring. A few powerful shoves from Wakamotoharu and we have another big upset from WMH. Oshidashi.
Atamifuji (2-4) defeated Daieisho (4-2). Daieisho plugged forward with his powerful tsuppari. At the edge, Atamifuji got his arm up under Daieisho’s armpit and dragged him forward for the win. Almost effortless. Tsukiotoshi.
Abi (1-5) defeated Hoshoryu (4-2). Abi looked a bit more like Daieisho here. Rather than rapid-fire tsuppari, he thrust forward and drove into Hoshoryu with his right hand. He pressed forward hard and then suddenly dropped away. Hoshoryu fell forward. Hikiotoshi.
Kirishima (5-1) defeated Gonoyama (2-4). Kirishima dug deep and overpowered Gonoyama. More of this, please. Yorikiri.
Terunofuji (5-1) defeated Tobizaru (3-3). Tobizaru half-henka’d Terunofuji, jumping a half-step to the side. As he shoved and kicked out at Terunofuji, the Kaiju seemed to get angrier and angrier. Terunofuji grabbed at Tobizaru’s right arm and seemed to trigger Tobizaru’s escape function. This shut off Tobizaru’s attack mode and sent him into “flight.” Terunofuji pursued until Tobizaru lept from the dohyo, into the crowd. Oshidashi.
Wrap-up
Hopefully, Aoiyama, Tsurugisho and Myogiryu join the growing kyujo queue. They’re injured and listless. Watching them “compete” is painful.
This tournament might be what Wakamotoharu needed for his confidence. He seemed very bashful when, ranked at Sekiwake, the media started talking about an unprecedented 3-way Ozeki promotion which included him. His head should be in the game now. He deserves to be in sanyaku.
Abi picked up his first win with the big upset of the day. I felt that his attack was a bit different today, more like Daieisho’s. I may be parsing hairs here but Abi’s attacks have always felt like they lack follow-through, compared to Daieisho’s. I’ll be watching to see if there is an evolution in Abi’s technique that makes him more effective at this level on a consistent basis. So far this tournament, he has been anything but.
Asanoyama remains the lone undefeated wrestler. He will face Meisei on Day 7. Terunofuji will face a dangerous Shodai, while Kirishima will face Hokutofuji and Kotonowaka will get Ryuden. Any upsets here will have serious implications on promotion and yusho hopes. These should all be wins.
Lower on the banzuke, Oho, Kotoshoho, Onosho, and Onosato sit on 1 loss. Oho and Onosato will face off tomorrow. Kotoshoho will face Shimazuumi while Onosho will take on Aoiyama, if Aoiyama shows up.
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The wrap-up text is what I wanted to hear, especially “promotion and yusho hopes” stuff, very nice, thank you.
The more days pass, the more interesting Basho becomes.
Yikes that fall by Ura, will he back tomorrow? I couldn’t watch the playbacks.
And Tobi, don’t kick a Kaiju unless he is down.
Those suicide throws really make me cringe. The only thing worse is when a small guy is clinging on the tawara with his toes and he gets crushed out by his opponent. I think Kizakiumi’s fall in the bout with Ikioi is the worst example that I can think of. Though Toma crushed another poor kid one time.
Good call on Hokuseiho’s demotion chances. His score will be just good enough that they won’t feel the need to push him down for any remotely plausible juryo KK, but bad enough that he’ll go down if he’s next in line and there’s a legit promotion case.
I enjoyed seeing Terunofuji getting angry at Tobizaru’s cheeky behavior. It shows he’s still feeling like a yokozuna, which is a good sign.
What cheeky behavior?
Kicking the Yokozuna on his bad knees
Mitoryu is an interesting case. He was a big prospect who got to start at Ms15TD, got to Juryo after 4 basho, and then … stayed in Juryo for the better part of 5 years before making a couple of forgettable Makuuchi appearances in 2022-23. He’s got serious size, some nifty moves, and can look absolutely dominant against solid rikishi some days, but this doesn’t translate into greater success.
I’m noticing a pattern with Takayasu – every time he gets blasted out of the ring he claims injury, sits out the next days bout or two or more if the opponents are tough, and then returns for an easy match. No disrespect intended but this poor guy should get his injuries fixed once and for all or leave before the damage is permanent.
I don’t think that’s fair or supported by the evidence. He suffers from a bad lower back, which can flare up and resolve. But even with that, he fought all 15 days in the past 3 basho. I can’t really find another instance of the pattern you mention, except maybe when he missed the first two days back in July of 2021: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=6480
Thank you Iksumo – I can always count on you to come up with the correct stats every time I think my imagination is running wild – which it obviously has been this week!
Much more dominant from Kirishima. Keep going, son.
Does Kotonowaka have a downshift for the steeper climb?
This basho has room for one long range missile, but will it be Kotoshoho or green Onosato?
Onosho.
Wakatakakage made an appearance in Juryo and got his kachikoshi from Ms1. Hopefully if all goes well, he’ll be back in Makuuchi by September.
Great point. Good catch.
Terunofuji haz a heckin amgery
Is it me or this basho seem very polarized up to now ?
I feel there is a lot, but really A LOT of rishiski in the top division right now who are at either 1-5 or 5-1. Wow !
If that keep up, there will be some huge swing in the next banzuke. The next crystal ball by Iksumi will be a headache !
You’re right, 8 rikishi have 5 or 6 wins, and 10 have zero or 1! About twice what you’d expect if you were flipping coins.
Most angry I’ve seen Terunofuji since his final bout with Hakuho with all those face slaps. The anger worked against him then but worked in his favor today.
Do i recall correctly that it was in a wild match with Tobi that Teru messed up his back and left his last basho ? .. Extra motivation today?
Hoshoryu’s right knee looks gimpy .. Abi’s slap down looked to occur when he hesitated to nimbly step forward on it .. He looks a little slow vs his usual amazing foot speed ..
The basho is looking like a survival match of the walking wounded ..