This is a bit late due to the holidays, but I thought I’d briefly review my banzuke forecast. Thanks to Andy for filling in and for the kinds words! The Crystal Ball really lived up to its name this time around: of the 42 Makuuchi wrestlers, my guess had 40 (!!) at the correct rank, with 31 placed exactly at the right rank and side. My only big miss was giving some leniency to M1e Asanoyama (4-4-7) by placing him at M6w, ahead of Shonannoumi and Ichiyamamoto; the banzuke committee placed him behind both, which is the correct choice if you go purely by rank and record. Asanoyama is the only rikishi I missed by one full rank, and Shonannoumi was the only other rikisihi I didn’t have at the correct rank (7e instead of 6w). My other misses were limited to 4 East-West swaps, two of which I consider completely unpredictable, and two of which I called out in my prediction post (quoted in italics):
- I may not have been lenient enough to Wakamotoharu: Correct. He’s at M1e, ahead of Atamifuji.
- I went against the math and moved Endo ahead of Churanoumi, which could well turn out to be a mistake: Indeed. If I had stuck with the math here and for Asanoyama, I would have tied for the winning score in Guess The Banzuke. Frustrating, since I tried to anticipate how the banzuke committee might favor higher-ranked rikishi, instead of sticking with my own quantitative approach.
One swap that I don’t think most people anticipated was S2e Kotonowaka (11-4) leapfrogging S1e Daieisho (9-6) for the top Sekiwake rank, something the committee hasn’t been doing since 2011. The best guess here, courtesy of Ryan from Grand Sumo Breakdown, is that the deciding factor was Kotonowaka’s jun-yusho. The other switch no one saw coming was the placement of Kotoshoho, who is coming up from Juryo, ahead of M5e Onosho (3-12), who not only didn’t get any leniency despite his high rank, but got bumped down half a rank more than the math called for in favor of someone being promoted from the second division.
Now on to the basho, which promises to be an exciting one across the board, especially if some of the recently injured rikishi (Terunofuji, Asanoyama, Hakuoho…) are back and in fighting form. I might do a follow-up post on what I’m most excited about across the different divisions. Given the quirks of the calendar, the January tournament starts on the latest possible day, January 14, so we have some time to cover the top storylines!
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Monday for New Year’s Day is awesome. And we get an extra day in February, I think.
Congratulations for your good prediction!!
What is your name in GTB?
Reonito
I think it’s fair to say Asanoyama is never getting the benefit of the doubt again. If he wants to make ozeki, he’ll need 33 legit wins once he gets to Sekiwake. And he’ll have to earn that rank as much or more than anyone ever has. I don’t think they’ll go out of their way to punish him more than they have, but if there’s ever a borderline decision, bet on it going against him.
I am not sure how much to weigh Asanoyama’s history here; it could have been a regular banzuke decision given how little leniency guys like Meisei also got…
Something that occurred to me as I read this given how hopeful many of us are that Teru will finally be back – is there a stat out there about Yokozuna with the most missed consecutive basho (or basho missed within a given year?). I’m just wondering as it seems Teru has been missing so much. Is there an unwritten rule in sumo about how much leeway Yokozuna get?
There’s definitely a limit to how long they can sit out, but it changes with the times and the circumstances. The yokozuna deliberation council at their last meeting chose not to formally say anything about Teru, but they said that if he misses January, they may have to say something official (there are 3 tiers: encouragement, warning, recommendation to retire). I don’t know all the records, but Takanohana sat out 7 entire tournaments, came back for one, sat out another, tried to fight in the next and retired. More recently, Kisenosato was absent for some or all of 8 straight tournaments, came back for one, pulled out of the next, tried to fight and retired. Hakuho and Kakuryu also missed a lot of time late in their careers. So the clock is ticking, and if Teru’s not back soon, it will strike midnight. It sounds like he’s planning to show up in January but hasn’t fully committed yet. I’d say he must show up in March at the latest, or retire.