I don’t have time for a long banzuke post, but for the record, here is my official Guess The Banzuke entry, with a few comments below.
Based on other publicly posted entries, I may not have been lenient enough to Wakamotoharu and Abi, as some guesses have them either at M1e and M2e, respectively, or even at M1e and M1w. Ryuden and Nishikigi could easily be swapped. Putting Meisei all the way down at M9w seems harsh, but I didn’t see a clean way to move him higher without being unfair to Hiradoumi and Mitakeumi. I went against the math and moved Endo ahead of Churanoumi, which could well turn out to be a mistake. And it seems fairly popular to rank Takarafuji above Onosato. Of course, the banzuke committee is known for throwing in some wrinkles none of the guessers anticipate. The official banzuke comes out on Christmas Day; I probably won’t review it until after the new year.
EDIT: For completeness, since I have 5 rikishi coming up from Juryo (Kotoshoho, Onosato, Bushozan, Shimazuumi, Aoiyama), 5 Makuuchi rikishi will be dropping down: Kitanowaka, Roga, Kotoeko, Tohakuryu, Nishikifuji. The 5 promotion claims are all strong, and the 5 demotion cases are clear-cut, so I would be very surprised if any of these exchanges did not take place.
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Here is what I had:
Yokozuna E : Terunofuji Y1e (0-0-15) _______
Ozeki E: Kirishima O1w (13-2) Ozeki W: Hoshoryu O2w (10-5)
________ Ozeki W2: Takakeisho O1e (9-6)
Sekiwake E: Kotonowaka S2e (11-4) Sekiwake W: Daieisho S1e (9-6)
Komusubi E: Takayasu M3e (10-5) Komusubi W: Ura M1w (8-7)
Maegashira E1: Wakamotoharu S1w (6-9) Maegashira W: Atamifuji M8w (11-4)
Maegashira E2: Abi K1e (6-9) Maegashira W2: Midorifuji M5w (9-6)
Maegashira E3: Gonoyama M4e (8-7) Maegashira W3: Hokutofuji K1w (5-10)
Maegashira E4: Shodai M2e (6-9) Maegashira W4: Tobizaru M3w (7-8)
Maegashira E5: Ryuden M10e (10-5) Maegashira W5: Nishikigi M4w (7-8)
Maegashira E6: Kinbozan M7w (8-7) Maegashira W6: Ichiyamamoto M14w (11-4)
Maegashira E7: Shonannoumi M6e (7-8) Maegashira W7: Asanoyama M1e (4-4-7)
Maegashira E8: Hokuseiho M7e (7-8) Maegashira W8: Mitakeumi M9w (8-7)
Maegashira E9: Meisei M2w (4-11) Maegashira W9: Hiradoumi M11w (9-6)
Maegashira E10: Sadanoumi M11e (8-7) Maegashira W10: Tamawashi M12w (9-6)
Maegashira E11: Oho M12e (8-7) Maegashira W11: Tsurugisho M13w (9-6)
Maegashira E12: Myogiryu M9e (6-9) Maegashira W12: Takanosho M6w (5-6-4)
Maegashira E13: Onosho M5e (3-12) Maegashira W13: Churanoumi M15w (9-6)
Maegashira E14: Endo M8e (5-10) Maegashira W14: Kotoshoho J1w (12-3)
Maegashira E15: Tomokaze M14e (7-8) Maegashira W15: Takarafuji M13e (6-9)
Maegashira E16: Onosato J5e (12-3) Maegashira W16: Bushozan J2e (10-5)
Maegashira E17: Shimazuumi J2w (9-6) Maegashira W17: Aoiyama J1e (8-7)
Aside from east-west movements:
I moved Ichiyamamoto higher than Asanoyama – we switched them.
You were more generous with Hiradoumi’s 9-6 compared to others. I sort of kept them the same, which kept Meisei a half rank higher in comparison to your prediction. We swapped Onosho and Endo and I kept Takarafuji a half rank higher.
Pretty similar! Some banzuke are all over the place, this one comes together fairly naturally.
Where’s Kotoeko? 😢
In Juryo. 2 wins at M10 won’t be enough to stay.
So a kachikoshi preserves your rank in lower san’yaku, unlike upper san’yaku? I feel like I should have known that… Just as I was thinking how straightforward the banzuke looked this time!
Up until ~2011, they reshuffled the KK in lower sanyaku just like they do with upper sanyaku, but then for some reason they stopped, unless the difference is really extreme: back in 2018, they exchanged S1e Ichinojo (8-7) and S1w Mitakeumi (13-2 Y) so now we’re left guessing what counts as extreme. This time, there’s also the extra wrinkle that Koto gets to move up from S2e to S1w.
Thanks. It makes sense the way it is now, in that an 8-7 can be a big achievement at komusubi, but is usually a disappointment for an Ozeki or Yokozuna.
Wow. Asanoyama the only full rank miss and he was just one rank away. So many bang on and just a few swaps.
40 of 42 at the correct rank! Definitely the closest I’ve come to the real thing.
Nice job
Elder Iksumo is definetly ready to be part of the JSA. :3
OK, I’m going to brag, solely because my predictions are usually catastrophic (leading to questions like “why did they have X at M5 when I had them at M11?”).
I was all correct, except 5 one-place swaps. Daieisho and Kotonowaka, of course (don’t be led astray is the moral there..); Abi and Midorifuji; Ichiyamamoto and Shonnanoumi; Mitakeumi and Hiradoumi (obviously I’m not an ocean person); and Kotosho and Endo.
Unfortunately, 3 of those 5 are rank swaps, but still, all just one place off!
Time to buy a lottery ticket..
Nice! That would have won a lot of rounds of GTB, just not this one.