Promotion/Demotion Picture, Day 11

Ozeki Watch

Absent Takakeisho will be kadoban at Aki, needing 8+ wins to save his rank. To avoid the same fate, shin-Ozeki Kirishima (5-4-2) needs to win 3 of his final 4 bouts. S1e Hoshoryu (9-2) and S1w Daieisho (8-3) each need 3 more wins to reach the nominal Ozeki promotion target of 33 wins over 3 basho, while S2w Wakamotoharu (8-3) has to win out.


All three Sekiwake have done enough to at least hold their ranks, meaning that the only way for Sekiwake slots to open is via Ozeki promotion. But we might be looking for at least one new Komusubi—K1e Kotonowaka (7-4) only needs one more win to return, but K1w Abi (4-7) must win out. Surprise yusho race leader M1e Nishikigi (10-1) is a lock to make his san’yaku debut at Aki. If more than one slot needs to be filled, the best contenders are Tobizaru, Hokutofuji, Shodai, and Onosho.

Makuuchi Men in Danger

Absent M12w Wakatakakage will drop to Juryo. M16w Bushozan (3-8) must win out to avoid joining him. The other endangered incumbents are M17e Aoiyama (5-6), who needs 3 more wins for safety, followed by M14e Daishoho (4-7), M13w Kotoshoho (4-7), and M11w Tsurugisho (3-8), who need two apiece, and M8e Sadanoumi (2-9), who needs one.

Juryo Promotion Contenders

Top-ranked J1e Kagayaki (8-3) has earned an immediate return to the top division, taking the spot vacated by Wakatakakage. J1w Atamifuji (8-3) should be back after 4 basho in the second division, unless there is absolutely no room. The rest of the contenders need wins, as well as losses by the endangered incumbents; in rough order, they are J5e Tamashoho (8-3), J2e Roga (6-5), J2w Mitoryu (6-5), J5w Kitanowaka (7-4), and yusho race leader and former top division man J9w Tomokaze (9-2), who is at the high water mark of his long journey back after the horrific leg injury he suffered almost 4 years ago.

For the Juryo/Makushita exchange picture, please follow my Makushita posts.

7 thoughts on “Promotion/Demotion Picture, Day 11

  1. I’m still sitting Sumo 101….

    So is there a set number of places for each san’yaku division? Or can we have as many yok-o-wake as we like?
    Can an especially deserving candidate…e.g. the ‘Well-dressed Tree’ (Nishikigi)…leapfrog komusubi straight into sekiwake?
    Can one imagine Nishikigi actually leapfrogging anything?

    Thanks in advance for sharing the knowledge 🙏

    • Leapfrogging komusubi is possible. I was just looking at data the other day for someone whose highest rank is sekiwake but they were never komusubi….I just can’t remember who it was. It’s kind of the luck of the draw. If there are a whole bunch of demotions, promotions might come from outside of the joi (top ~4 maegashira ranks).

      There is no limit on Yokozuna and Ozeki, except we must have at least two Ozeki (or Yokozuna-Ozeki). They prefer to have a balanced 2 Komusubi and 2 Sekiwake. There’s never 1 but sometimes three or more.

      • Yeah I think officially there have to be two O (with Y filling in if needed), 2 S and 2 K but there can be more if the results demand it. We’ve had as many as 4 Y, as many as 6 O, as many as 5 S, and as many as 4 K on occasion.

    • Nishikigi could go straight to S in one of two circumstances. (1) there’s a Sekiwake slot open and he’s the best candidate to fill it, or (2) he piles up enough wins (12?)

      • I think i could very see Nishikigi Sekiwake regarless of any Ozeki promotion if his bulldozing is not stop and he end up 14-1 with the yusho.

        I mean, could the elders still deny him that rank with such a record and feat of strenght ?

      • Last November 12 wins saw Takayasu promoted from M1 to S2. It makes sense given what appears to be the prevailing standard for promotion to supernumerary sanyaku ranks (10 wins for M1 to K2, 11 wins for K to S2).


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.