Right after the Kyushu basho, I took an initial look at how the November results are likely to shape the January banzuke. As I noted then, this is the most complex banzuke I’ve ever tried to predict, and I can’t find anything like it in modern sumo history. The range of options for the banzuke committee to consider is much wider than usual, and as a result, what you read below could end up being way off target.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
This is easy. Whether or not he fights, Terunofuji will be the sole Yokozuna, and Takakeisho will be the sole Ozeki. I have them both on the East side, as there is no precedent for a sole Ozeki (or Yokozuna) to be placed on the West side to balance the banzuke.
How many lower San’yaku?
This is the critical question for the rest of the banzuke. Three Sekiwake are locked in: S1e Wakatakakage (8-7), S1w Hoshoryu (11-4) and O1w Shodai (6-9). And there have to be at least two Komusubi. One is K1w Kiribayama (8-7), and if we keep the lower san’yaku to this minimal configuration, he would be joined by M1e Takayasu (12-3). This is the obvious solution that does not involve creating extra slots for rikishi who did not force them. However, it is hard to see how to then put together the upper maegashira ranks.
Let’s consider who would need to be placed within the top 8 maegashira positions (M1-M4). There are 5 rikishi who were at those ranks and got a winning record: M1w Kotonowaka (9-6), M2e Meisei (9-6), M3w Midorifuji (8-7), M4e Wakamotoharu (10-5), M4w Sadanoumi (8-7). That leaves only 3 available spaces. But we have no fewer than four dropping san’yaku rikishi with mild make-koshi: S2w Mitakeumi (6-9), K2e Tobizaru (7-8), K2w Daieisho (7-8), and K1e Tamawashi (6-9). Demoting any of them below M4 would be completely unprecedented, so something has to give. And even if we were to contemplate, say, placing Tamawashi at M5e, we’d then have to freeze M5w Nishikifuji (9-6), M6e Nishikigi (8-7), and M6w Ryuden (9-6) at their current ranks; while 8-7 freezes have happened, albeit very rarely, 9-6 freezes never have. Oh, and we haven’t even gotten to the yusho winner, M9w Abi (12-3). As reluctant as the banzuke committee is to create extra san’yaku slots, the sheer quantity of historically bad banzuke luck this solution entails seems even more unpalatable.
The first step to break this historically bad logjam is to create one extra slot for Kotonowaka. My preferred solution is to do so by bumping up Takayasu to Sekiwake, and letting Kotonowaka naturally slide into the vacant K1w slot, but the exact configuration (4S/2K or 3S/3K) doesn’t matter for the maegashira ranks. This solution isn’t great, as we’ll see below, but to me at least, it seems to balance opening up extra san’yaku slots and living with some fairly extreme underpromotions and overdemotions. One could keep going, of course, and add another Komusubi, or two, or even three, drawn from Meisei, Wakamotoharu, and Abi, most likely in that order. This would give us a total of 7, 8, or 9 S/K, respectively. As I noted when the November banzuke was released, 7 S/K has happened only 7 times in history, and 8 on only one occasion. With the constraints of drawing up this particular banzuke, 7 S/K would not surprise me at all, and that’s what Ryan at Grand Sumo Breakdown went with. Eight is not implausible, though 9 would be both surprising and unprecedented. My prediction below will boldly proceed with 6, which presents a tricky puzzle to put together.
Solving the M1-M4 puzzle
With Kotonowaka out of the picture, we have 8 rikishi to fit into 8 slots, which is at least not impossible but still involves some gymnastics. Meisei, Wakamotoharu, Tobizaru, Daieisho, and Mitakeumi all have rank/record combinations that have never landed below M2, but placing one of them at M3, together with Midorifuji, would not be tragic. This also leaves room for Tamawashi at M4e, low but not completely unprecedented. 8-7 Sadanoumi is frozen in this scenario, which is allowable.
The elephant in the room: M5-M6
The only ranks 9-6 Nishikifuji and Ryuden can go without freezing them are M5e and M5w, with 8-7 Nishikigi frozen at M6e. So, whom haven’t we placed yet? Oh right, Abi! There’s no way to place him any higher without either freezing 9-6 rikishi or way over-demoting Tamawashi. A 3-rank promotion for the 12-3 champion is historically stingy, but I feel like one extreme under-promotion is a price the banzuke committee is willing to pay to make everything else work. If we see more than 6 S/K, this placement would be the main reason why.
Makuuchi to Juryo
Chiyotairyu’s retirement opens up one slot in the top division. M16e Terutsuyoshi (0-15) and M15w Atamifuji (4-11) will be vacating two more. In my prediction, M8e Takarafuji (3-12) finished with a just-demotable record, so I have him going down as well, but the banzuke committee is quite likely to save him.
J3e Tsurugisho (10-5) is definitely coming back up. The other contenders, in a virtual tie, are J1w Chiyomaru (8-7), J3w Mitoryu (9-6), and J5e Akua (10-5). Losses by all three on the final day, coupled with a win by Takarafuji, left the door open for the possibility that one will miss out, in favor of keeping the incumbent. I have all of them coming up, but if one were to miss out, Chiyomaru seems the most likely choice based on recent precedents, although you can find past banzuke with pretty much any possible ordering for these rank-record combinations.
Anyway, here’s the prediction. Many choices to debate on this one.
Great summary. Did I read the possibility of 5 Komusubi? This will be very interesting to see shake out. The weak Ozeki are causing chaos on the dohyo and off.
Yeah in terms of who deserves it, you could certainly make a case for 9 S/K (either 4/5 or 3/6). I don’t think we’ll see it, but you’re right, the upper-rankers should be soaking up wins, not handing them out like candy to the rank-and-filers.
I have a 4S/4K Banzuke on file on GTB, but only because the entry form isn’t equipped with enough spaces for the 6 I think there should (and could) be…
Kintamayama did say he’d accept entries with 5+ komusubi by email 😉 Seriously though, this time around, there are 9 rikishi who deserve to be ranked S/K, and one could in theory solve this by creating slots for them. But there are other banzuke when nobody deserves to fill open S/K slots and/or some of the upper M ranks, and they can’t simply leave them unfilled (remember when Midorifuji went from M11 to M1 after a 10-5 record, simply because there was no one else to put there?). So having some rikishi miss out this time kinda balances out.
chuckle
Would really be interested in hearing what good Kintamayama though of this next banzuke crystal. He’s usualy a beacon of chillness and it really need something huge to make him stir a little.
But this next bazuke placement game is really someting unprecedented. I wonder if it is even making him pull his hair a bit. (If he still had any left. >_< )
Abi at M6? no way. he’ll be much higher. at M1 or M2 probably. when Asanoyama won at M8, he was promoted to M1. that’s probably a good hint.
I am loathe to quibble with the great lksumo’s predictions, but…
Just based on gut intuitions it feels like Abi has to at least be in the joi-jin, no?
for sure, but then where does everyone else go? 🤷🏼♂️
I’m a keen fan of sumo, but not of the banzuke. The situation with Abi shows how absurd it is. He was a komosubi who went kyujo, was absurdly over-demoted, then came back with his komosubi skills intact and won a yusho. Now they are going to say he is M6?
This is total nonsense. Whatever the banzuke committee, in its wisdom (?) may say, Abi is a komosubi level rikishi and should be at that level.
I know that this post is aimed at people who like to play the game of predicting the banzuke, and I respect that, but I felt the need to say that I enjoy sumo regardless of the banzuke.
Great article thank you. One question though, if there’s no (recent) precedent for one Yokozuna and one Ozeki couldn’t you equally well have Takakeisho on the west side?
For example in September’s banzuke it looks like the upper san’yaku were treated as a unit for the purposes of balance, and then the lower san’yaku are treated independently.
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202209&heya=-1&shusshin=-1
For comparison Natsu 1897 (for what that’s worth) has the lone Ozeki on the west side too:
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=189705&heya=-1&shusshin=-1
I think it’s entirely possible, and most projections have Keisho at O1w. Some flip it and have Teru at Y1w. I was swayed to place them both on the east side by this banzuke, which is the closest recent precedent I could find: 3 Yokozuna, 1 Ozeki: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=198201
Hmm I see what you mean…!
I was a bit surprised by your Y/O prediction. To me (and other people on the Natto Discord Server) it seemed quite obvious that Takakeisho will be West Ozeki, because of the famous need for an Ozeki on each side of the banzuke. So Terunofuji as East Yokozuno-Ozeki, and Takakeisho as West Ozeki.
I thought so too, but every time there’s been a lone Ozeki after the 1930s, he’s been ranked on the east side, including when there were an odd number of Yokozuna. Most recent example of that is Kotokaze in Nov 1981 and Jan 1982. But maybe I was led astray by the fact that with 3 Yokozuna, they could make Y1w the YOw?
Yes, in both those banzuke Kitanoumi was the YO.
Yeah I’m inclined to see Takayasu as Sekiwake, if only because they need to promote someone to Ozeki, and he’s the best candidate with 23 wins in his last two tournaments. Then place Abi as Komusubi and the top level issues get solved, with Abi on an Ozeki run for March. If Takayasu and Shodai falter in January the two other Sekiwake you mention could possibly be squeezed in if need be, assuming one of them gets to 12 wins or so. Surely one of the four will step up, right? [looks around nervously] R-r-right?
Thanks for the interesting read as always.
Has anyone heard any updates about Takayasu’s current condition since his fall in the playoff match? I haven’t seen news about that recently.
The banzuke is out and we have 4 sekiwake and 4 komusubi. now That probably made the maegshira ranks a lot easier this time, but has the potential to make the next banzuke equally difficult. Just have 4 of those guys drop out again with 7-8 and 6-9 records ;)
Or the dream scenario of a four-way yushō play-off (Takakeishō, Wakatakakage, Hōshōryū and Takayasu), along with Abi and Shōdai finishing right behind them at 10-5, and other incumbents finishing with at least 8-7 marks. Now there would be an interesting banzuke situation for March…