Kyushu Banzuke Weekend

The glorious weekend sumo fans adore, it’s time for the November ranking sheet, due to be release Sunday afternoon US time, Monday morning Japan time. With Hakuho, “The Boss” no retired, it may lead one to assume that its time to turn the old guard out for good. But just to defy those expectations, we expect none other than Kyushu brawler Shohozan to return to the top division.

This will be the first time since 2019 that the tournament will actually be held in Fukuoka, and I am hoping that the fans in Western Japan turn up in force and with as much enthusiasm as is permitted to cheer on what could be a big basho for lone Yokozuna Terunofuji.

Team Tachiai will post the banzuke as soon as it’s available, so be ready for a storm of sumo fandom in a bit under 48 hours.

New Recruits: October 2021

The New Recruit exam was today and five newbies were welcomed into the Kyokai.

Isegahama picked up two recruits while Fujishima, Sadogatake, and Arashio picked up one each. Suguro Ibuki, Fujishima-beya’s 24 year old new star, will debut in Sandanme. At 167 cm tall, he’s right at the height cutoff but at 152kg and with a successful amateur career, he will want to compete for the yusho.

All of the others will do their maezumo and debut in Jonokuchi at Hatsu. Asuhada, going to Arashio beya, was the tallest of the bunch at 189 cm (about 6′ 2″), and 150 kg. At 21 years old, he hails from the Chinese region of Inner Mongolia, the same region as his new stablemaster, ex-Sokokurai. The final three are youngsters of 17-18 years old. I look forward to seeing them in their kesho mawashi next month!

Birthday Calendar Released

The new Tachiai Birthday Calendar

I have released Tachiai’s new Birthday Calendar. Josh had a couple of very good suggestions, one of which I was able to go ahead and implement for the initial release. The other will take some time, and may need a different dashboard.

I was able to add candlestick charts of Age by Division, and added it to the lower left. The candlesticks give more than the basic average, allowing one a deeper view into the age distribution. While the average age in the lower divisions is lower than Makuuchi, there’s a wider spread with more older wrestlers…notably Hanakaze in Jonidan. It is interesting to see that the average age increases by about a year as you move to higher divisions, but the most outliers are well below Juryo. While young wrestlers progress through the ranks in their career, they drop back down as they age and we see that with this interesting age distribution.

The other suggestion was to look into whether there are more wrestlers who are university graduates. That would mean their entry into Grand Sumo would necessarily be later (and thus older) than previously. Enho, Endo and Myogiryu are examples of university grads who have birthdays this week. Click the link above or you can find the menu item in the main navigation. I don’t want to have it load for everyone visiting the site today, so I didn’t embed it directly into this post, opting for the screenshot above. I’m eager to hear what y’all think!

Things We Learned That Don’t Really Mean Much

Veterans at the ready. Photo credit @nicolaah

In some ways, Wacky Aki lived up to its name. Not because it was a see-saw title race until the end or because there was some kind of crazy left-field title challenger. Indeed, all of the “dark horses” were more or less known entities, or people that could have been expected to run up a double digit score from their respective ranks.

Maybe you’ll say Myogiryu or Onosho aren’t expected to contend, but they’re not Kotoeko or Tsurugisho, or, dare I say it, Tokushoryu. None of the contenders were strangers to the musubi-no-ichiban. There were a few other talking points from the basho though that might fly under the radar, so I’ve assembled some of them here:

Shodai’s kachikoshi

This may not seem like much, but while the Ozeki was maddeningly inconsistent and underwhelming, this kachikoshi means that Shodai will officially have a longer tenure as Ozeki than either recent Ozeki Tochinoshin or Asanoyama.

Tochinoshin is of course in the decline phase of his career and won’t be returning to the rank, and Asanoyama can make it back to Ozeki in 2024 at the earliest following his suspension and fall down the banzuke. While Terunofuji has taught us not to rule anything out, that ain’t likely (even if it does happen, it will likely take more time).

So, Shodai will soldier on. Among other “recent” (last 25 years or so) Ozeki, he can topple Miyabiyama with another kachikoshi in the next tournament, and if he can hang around for another year at the level he can attempt to surpass the likes of Takayasu and Baruto. This is where it’s worth reminding you: we’re talking about Shodai here. He’s always had the talent, but his top division career – including his Ozeki stint – (apart from that magical 12 month run from November 2019 to November 2020, before which he was a .500 rank and filer) could be best described as mediocre.

Takasago beya

Feast or famine for the beleaguered heya. With the former stable master now gone and Asanoyama in the midst of a suspension that eventually will punt the former Ozeki down to Sandanme, there was yet more bad news in the form of shin-Juryo Asashiyu (moto-Murata)’s debut which went all wrong in the form of a 1-14 record. At least it wasn’t as bad as Shikoroyama’s Oki, in his recent Juryo bow. But it continues a worrying trend for in this particular stable, after Asagyokusei similarly not being able to manage a kachi-koshi in the penultimate division in three attempts, and veteran Asabenkei’s last four attempts at the division all ending in double digit losses. At least if you’re a tsukebito, your servitude may not last particularly long.

We shouldn’t feel too bad though. Asashiyu-Murata’s debut itself was something of a feat. Having reached the edge of heaven at Makushita 1, injuries knocked him all the way back down to Jonokuchi where he was forced to restart his career. Now 27, he’ll need to regroup if he’s going to shift through the gears once more, but you suspect having a top heyagashira with something to actually fight for (as opposed to a suspended heyagashira still miles away from his return) might be helpful for the whole stable.

The stable might have a new heyagashira before long though, and it could be one of Asanoyama’s old tsukebito. The rikishi formerly known as Terasawa will make his sekitori debut in the next basho, and as Takasago beya normally gives its rikishi their morning shikona following Juryo promotion, I’m disappointed he hasn’t got Asanousagi. Having instead curiously taken the name Asanowaka, Terasawa was one of two success stories for Takasago in makushita last tournament. You might remember him as the guy who had his practise mawashi stolen with the remains of his dead rabbit inside.

Finally, that second success story would have been the makushita yusho of Fukai, the former Sandanme Tsukedashi debutant who’s made solid if unsteady progress over the past year and a half. Fukai’s yusho sensationally denied the much vaunted Kitanowaka of an automatic promotion (and it was a nice looking win at that, with one of those very satisfying endings that see everyone crash down the side of the dohyo), and the two will hopefully duke it out again next basho from the makushita joi, where they will both be ranked, presumably with promotion on the line.

Oldies Keep Swinging

While recent generations had their one-offs who performed well into their late 30’s (Terao, Kaio, Kyokutenho), one could be forgiven for thinking that the time would come when the current crop of vets would start to get pumped.

Eight participants in the top division are aged 34 or over (including last week’s birthday man Tochinoshin – happy birthday!). Those eight rikishi combined for a record of 59-61.

For sure, this number is propped up by Myogiryu’s championship challenge, but the only really poor result was Tokushoryu’s 4-11 which isn’t all that unexpected from anyone who’s spent part of the year in Juryo.

That almost-.500 record for the vets is reflective of the current mediocre top division quality and it means their decline – which is certainly evident relative to their younger selves in terms of the eye test – has more of a flatline.

As Andy teases a new “birthday” feature for the site, it will be curious to watch the average age of the top division continue to get ever older. You’d think that subtracting a 36 year old retiring yokozuna might help this, but while Hakuho will remain on the November banzuke if not the dohyo, the top division will likely be joined by a trio of 30+ veterans in Akua (30), Sadanoumi (34), Shohozan (37!!), and the 27 year old Abi.

The youth movement that had threatened to wash away the detritus has so far failed to really materialise. Credit must go to Hoshoryu and Kotonowaka for consolidating their positions in the top division for now, but Kotoshoho and Oho haven’t been able to break through or stay through doing to injury or ability respectively, and Onoe-beya’s once heavily hyped 23-year old Ryuko has just sadly announced his intai after a couple of injury plagued Juryo appearances.

The Kyushu basho will, at least, provide some looks in Juryo for Kotoshoho, Hokuseiho and Hiradoumi to hopefully show that there are youngsters who have got what it takes to keep moving up into the top division and establish themselves.

And this may actually be the more telling thing. We know that the age at which a rikishi can break into and stick in the top division is often an indicator of their ultimate final destination in the sport. That inability recently of many to skip through Juryo also owes much to an aged veteran presence in that division. The Mongolian duo of 33 year old Kyokushuho and 34 year old Azumaryu continue to rack up enough wins to hang around the place, and will be joined by Tokushoryu next tournament as he replaces the tricenarian trio who look likely to head up.

Or, it may not be that telling. These are, after all, things that don’t really mean much.