Yusho Race
Well, maximum chaos failed to materialize, but the race is far from over. Yokozuna Terunofuji (11-2) defeated Sekiwake Mitakeumi to maintain a one-win lead. The ranks of his pursuers have been thinned considerably. Three rank-and-filers—Onosho, Myogiryu, and Endo—trail by a victory, with a fourth—Okinoumi—still mathematically in the race win 9 wins. Everyone else is out of contention.
A win by Terunofuji tomorrow over Ozeki Takakeisho would guarantee him at least a playoff spot if not an outright championship. A loss would open the door to up to a 4-way tie going into Day 15. Onosho, Myogiryu, Endo, and Okinoumi have all been given san’yaku opponents: Meisei, Shodai, Ichinojo and Mitakeumi, respectively. If Terunofuji is in the lead after tomorrow, he should face Shodai on Day 15; otherwise, he’ll likely be matched head-to-head with his highest-ranked 11-win challenger.
San’yaku Exchanges
Mitakeumi has locked down his East Sekiwake slot for his 17th appearance at the rank, which will tie for 8th all-time. Takayasu (4-8-1) will vacate his Komusubi slot. The other two san’yaku slots are still in play: Meisei (6-7) needs to win out to extend his maiden appearance at Sekiwake, but can limit his fall to Komusubi if he goes 1-1. Ichinojo (7-6) needs to go 1-1 or better to stay at Komusubi, and could even move up to Sekiwake if Meisei falters.
Onosho and M1w Takanosho (7-6) are now the leading contenders for the first open san’yaku slot, trailed by Kiribayama, Daieisho, Wakatakakage, Okinoumi, Myogiryu, and Endo.
Juryo-Makuuchi Exchanges
M16w Tokushoryu (3-10) is certain to be demoted. Juryo yusho race leader Abi (11-2) has locked up his long-awaited return to the top division. The M15 duo of Ichiyamamoto and Chiyonoo, both 4-9, now have demotable records, which means that J1w Akua (8-5) and J3w Sadanoumi (9-4) should also be back up in Makuuchi after 2 and 4 basho in Juryo, respectively.
M14e Kaisei (5-8) still needs a win for safety, as does M13w Tsurugisho (5-8). The remaining realistic promotion candidates are J4e veteran Shohozan (8-5) and J9e Nishikifuji (10-3).
Juryo-Makushita Exchanges
Three Juryo slots are open: one by Takagenji’s removal and two by the performances of the J13 duo Takakento (3-10) and Asashiyu (the former Murata), who’s looked completely outclassed in his sekitori debut to the tune of a 1-12 record. Four other second-division men go into the final weekend seeking a win to ensure a return.
Down in Makushita, we have two rikishi guaranteed to make their salaried debuts: Ms1e Terasawa (5-1) and Ms2e Hiradoumi (5-2). Ms2w Kotokuzan (4-2) can bounce right back up to Juryo with a win or a loss by Ms1w Chiyoarashi (3-3); the latter, along with the Ms4 duo Jokoryu and Kotoyusho, both 3-3, must win and hope for favorable outcomes in other bouts.
GIven that Teru is facing Takakeisho tomorrow, – and given that there are 3 lower-ranked rikishi just 1 win behind him, with only 2 day left – I guess that means there is a non-trivial chance that at least one of those 3 ends up in serious yusho contention… Do we assume that Teru will face Shodai on the final day? Or if he loses to Taka-K tomorrow, would the schedulers then consider matching the Yokozuna against one of the lower-ranked contenders? I suddenly feel that there is a small but not totally insignificant chance of an Endo Yusho!
I think I said in the the post that they’re only likely to match him against one of the contenders if he’s tied with them.
I was looking at Kitanowaka’s 6-1 and wondering how many open slots would be needed for that record to be sufficient for promotion. Anyway, I’m just staring at Hakuyozan and Tohakuryu and wondering whether they need one or two more wins to avoid demotion, or if they’re already good.
From Ms11? Ain’t gonna happen outside of mass scandal-driven retirements/demotions: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=ms11&form1_wins=6&form1_year=1958-2021&form2_rank=j
The not quite safe quartet are those two plus Kyokushuho and Churanoumi. All will be safe with one win. They might be good anyway unless Chiyoarashi wins; I don’t think either of the Ms4s would push them down with a 4-3 record.