The 2021 Haru basho is in the books, and all the prizes have been handed out. How will the results reshuffle the rankings for the Natsu basho? As usual, I’ll have a full banzuke prediction posted once I’ve had more time for analysis, but here’s an early look at the key points.
The named ranks
Barring any unexpected further intai news, we will have Hakuho as the sole Yokozuna. The Ozeki ranks will see a reshuffle, with Asanoyama and Takakeisho, both 10-5, moving up to O1 East and West, respectively, newly kadoban Shodai falling to O2e, and re-promoted Terunofuji “debuting” at O2w.
All the other incumbents in lower san’yaku—S1w Takanosho, K1e Takayasu, K1w Mitakeumi, and K2w Daieisho are kachi-koshi. I think they’ll move up in tandem to S1e, S1w, K1e, and K1w, although there is a chance that Takayasu could leapfrog Takanosho (now there’s an image!).
Upper maegashira
Similar to the situation last time, we had three high-performing upper maegashira—M2e Hokutofuji (9-6), M2w Wakatakakage (10-5) and M3e Meisei (10-5), who would all deserve a san’yaku slot if any were available. The other upper maegashira all put up losing records that ranged from borderline to disastrous, and we have to go all the way down to M8w Tobizaru (10-5) to find the next winning record. This makes filling out this part of the banzuke a real challenge.
I think the least unfair way to accomodate the top trio is to place Wakatakakage at M1e (obviously), and then bump up Hokutofuji a measly half-a-rank to M1w, leaving Meisei, who really should be ahead of him, to settle for M2e. Tobizaru is then a lock for M2w, and remarkably, the surprise jun-yusho winner, M12w Aoiyama (11-4), is the best (and really only) candidate for M3e. What to do with M3w though? Here are your options, ladies and gentlemen: M9e Chiyonokuni, with 8 wins, M15w (!!!) Hidenoumi with 10, or M1w Onosho with his sterling 4-11 record. No, seriously, those are the best-placed rikishi, assuming they don’t promote someone with a losing record. Take your pick between a 5-rank over-promotion, a 7-rank over-promotion, or a 5-rank under-demotion.
Leaving the 7-8 M4 duo of Kiribayama and Myogiryu in place stops the bleeding a bit, but the choices for M5e, M5w, and M6e don’t look so hot either. After that, it’s two more 7-8 rikishi keeping their ranks—M6w Ichinojo and M7e Tochinoshin—and then the rankings return to some semblance of normalcy. And let’s not even think about what would need to happen if an extra Komusubi slot were created for Wakatakakage.
Makuuchi-Juryo exchanges
With a 9-man san’yaku, the M17e rank will reappear. And the exchanges should be pretty straightforward. Everyone in the top division finished with records that easily warrant a return, with the exception of M11 Kotoshoho (one win) and M15 Yutakayama (4-11). Those two demotions, plus Kakuryu’s retirement, open up three slots, and there are three clear promotion candidates: J2e Ishiura (9-6), J3e Chiyomaru (9-6), and J1w Akua (8-7). For the second basho in a row, no one will make a Makuuchi debut; before this March, we’ve had a newcomer in every tournament since Kyushu 2018. Just missing out on a return is M4e Enho (9-6), who will try again from the top spot in Juryo, where even 8 wins will be enough.
I’ll end this here, and cover what I think will happen in Juryo and upper Makushita after the new Juryo promotions are announced on Wednesday (it’s the only part of the banzuke we get to see early). Thanks for reading, and let me know what you think in the comments!
Anybody hearing anything about the lower-ranked wrestler who landed on his head due to a throw? Is he still ‘numb’ from the neck down?
I have not heard news about Hibikiryu. I will post if I see anything confirmed.
Abi won the Makushita yusho (he was the only 7-0 in the division) at M56. Obviously at that low rank he won’t get out of Makushita despite the yusho, but where do you think he’ll be come Natsu?
Ms6 most likely…
He could be right alongside Hokuseiho, which would make for a very interesting start to the basho. I expect Abi to yusho again, but he will have a more challenging schedule.
ma boule de cristal:
Y1e Hakuho
O1e Asanoyama
O1w Takakeisho
O2e Shodai
O2w Terunofuji
S1e Takanosho
S1w Takayasu
K1e Mitakeumi
K1w Daieisho
M1e Wakatakakage
M1w Meisei
M2e Hokutofuji
M2w Tobizaru
M3e Aoiyama
M3w Chiyonokuni
M4e Hoshoryu
M4w Kiribayama
M5e Myogiryu
M5w Onosho
M6e Takarafuji
M6w Endo
M7e Ichinojo
M7w Tochinoshin
M8e Hidenoumi
M8w Shimanoumi
M9e Kagayaki
M9w Tamawashi
M10e Kotonowaka
M10w Tsurugisho
M11e Terutsuyoshi
M11w Chiyoshoma
M12e Kotoeko
M12w Akiseyama
M13e Ryuden
M13w Chiyotairyu
M14e Okinoumi
M14w Midorifuji
M15e Kaisei
M15w Daiamami
M16e Ishiura
M16w Chiyomaru
M17e Akua
J1e Enho
J1w Ura
J2e Tokushoryu
J2w Chiyonoo
J3e Hakuyozan
J3w Azumaryu
J4e Takagenji
J4w Daishomaru
J5e Yutakayama
J5w Shohozan
J6e Sadanoumi
J6w Jokoryu
J7e Kyokushuho
J7w Wakamotoharu
J8e Kyokutaisei
J8w Kotoshoho
J9e Ichiyamamoto
J9w Churanoumi
J10e Chiyootori
J10w Mitoryu
J11e Tohakuryu
J11w Takakento
J12e Chiyonoumi
J12w Nishikifuji
J13e Daishoho
J13w Nishikigi
J14e Bushozan
J14w Oho
Happy I get to see Ishiura back where he belongs, let’s hope he makes it stick this time, when he is on he is tremendously entertaining to watch, plus the henkas are always fun. Looking like an 80’s action flick henchman helps too.
We haven’t had Yokozuna over the last few basho but lower sanyaku has been really very strong and at least two of the three Ozeki were always performing at the appropriate level. This has made the last four tournaments quite exciting to watch. I have the impression that the skill at the top is quite high even though the absolute “top level” skill is missing due to the absence of Yokozuna. Compared to a few years ago I would say lower sanyaku+ozeki are better now. My guess is that the next few basho winners will come from the current lower sanyaku+ozeki crowd.
It’s clear that a lot of the top rikishi are all very close in strength, which makes it really hard for the best ones to stand out, but the ones at the top of the banzuke generally do beat up on everyone else enough such that they stay there and kick out the Shimanoumi-types who lucky into promotions into the danger zone.
I don’t know whether it compounds a felony to nudge the M4 MK pair one half rank down to make it neater to promote both Chiyonokuni and Hoshoryu, otherwise only one of them makes it up when they’re for all intents and purposes equal in rank and result. It’s the least of bad options compared to underdemoting a double-digit MK howler at M1 or bumping a mere 10-5 M15 12 ranks up.
Yeah, that’s a fair point.
I agree that because they are basically forced to push up Chiyonokuni before they can place down those 7-8s, for fairness sake they may move up Hoshoryu just as much since the 7-8s really don’t look too bad moved down one rank, while Hoshoryu multiple ranks away from Chiynokuni looks kinda bad. There was one time in the past where they were faced with a similar decision where they split the difference, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if Hoshoryu ended up between Myogiryu and Kiribayama.
I am thinking very much along the same lines as lksumo. There really is no good solution to M3w, as everyone you can put there looks wrong. My first draft had Hidenoumi in there but there was no way I could countenance that so I currently have Chiyonokuni there. It still looks wrong but I can live with that, If only you could promote MKs, Kiribayama looks a much more natural M3 that any of the current options.
maybe some clever person could come up with a ‘quality of victories’ algorithm to factor in the relative ranks and results of one’s opponents and things like fusen sho wins.
@science_patrol: already done: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glicko_rating_system
Thanks for the insights.
I have a question and can’t find an answer…if Hakuho retires, before any other rikishi becomes a yokozuna, could a yokozunaless banzuke /tournament exist? Has this happened before through the years?
Yes. This happened for about a year after Hokutoumi retired (http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=199205#M) and before Akebono was promoted to Yokozuna (http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=199303#M).