Mock Natsu Storylines, Day 14

Here’s what’s at stake on senshuraku.

The yusho race

Mitakeumi (12-2) leads over an 11-3 trio that includes heavyweights Hakuho and Asanoyama and surprise contender Sadanoumi. The final bout of the tournament pairs Hakuho with Asanoyama, and will cut the list of contenders to at most 3. Should Mitakeumi defeat [checks notes] Tokushoryu, he lifts the Cup; lose, and he goes into a playoff with the winner of musubi-no-ichiban as well as possibly Sadanoumi, if the latter can beat Shodai. A third yusho for Mitakeumi would be unprecedented—no rikishi in history has won three while ranked below Ozeki.

Lower san’yaku

Mitakeumi has secured another tournament at Sekiwake. Shodai (7-7) needs to win his final bout to do likewise, but he can’t fall lower than Komusubi. Daieisho (7-7) also faces a Darwin bout for his san’yaku rank, in his case against Abi. With Okinoumi (5-9) assured of demotion, there will be either one or two open slots.

With M1e Endo (3-11) out of contention, M2w Onosho (8-6) is in pole position and should claim the first open slot with a win. Should he falter against Kotoshogiku, two higher-ranked rikishi, both 7-7, can pass him with a win: M1w Yutakayama and M2e Takanosho. Also in the running are M7w Tokushoryu (10-4), M4w Aoiyama (8-6), and the M8 duo of Ishiura and Chiyotairyu, both 10-4.

Demotion danger

M17 Terunofuji (0-7-7), M15 Chiyomaru (4-10), and M16 Kotoeko (5-9) are almost certainly headed down to Juryo, and could well be joined by M17 Kotoyuki (6-8), M11 Tochinoshin (3-11), and M10 Kaisei (3-11). There are only three strong promotion cases down in Juryo, so if some of these most endangered members of Makuuchi can record a final-day win, they might yet earn a lucky escape, or someone in Juryo could get a very generous promotion to the top division instead.

5 thoughts on “Mock Natsu Storylines, Day 14

  1. Just looking at the matchups for the final day there might be no sanyaku slots open. Takakeisho will be dropping to sekiwake alongside Mitakeumi. If Shodai loses and Daeisho wins tomorrow they would both be at komusubi meaning that someone would need to get the kind of result that would force a slot open (as the bishop said to the actress).

  2. After Ishiura’s surprise run, this simulation has proven rather realistic. Congrats to GSB and thank you, Bruce and Leonid!

    • The idea was that we needed the ability for a rikishi to “catch fire” and really clean up. This mechanic somehow seized upon Ishiura, and off he went. Once the difficulty level of his opponents went up, things fell back to normal a bit, but he matched his prior best of 10-5 from his Makuuchi debut tournament.

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