Year: 2019

Nagoya Storylines, Day 13

lksumo Nagoya Basho 2019

The Yusho Race

Kakuryu’s loss to Tomokaze today, combined with Hakuho’s victory, leaves the two Yokozuna tied at the top of the standings with 12-1 records. Because they will face each other on the final day, at least one of them will end up with no more than two losses, and therefore 3-loss Tomokaze is out of the race. Still in it, however, is 2-loss M16w Terutsuyoshi! The last man on the banzuke, who is short in stature but not in fighting spirit, must win out and hope that each Yokozuna picks up another loss, in which case he would be an extremely improbable playoff participant. His formidable opponent tomorrow is M1w Hokutofuji, followed on Day 15 by perhaps Tomokaze or Mitakeumi. Kakuryu has Mitakeumi tomorrow, and their record is almost even at 6-5. Hakuho faces Kotoshogiku, whom he’s defeated 56 times in 61 meetings on the dohyo.

Here are the yusho scenarios:

  • Both Yokozuna win on Day 14: their Day 15 bout decides the champion.
  • Both Yokozuna lose: their Day 15 bout decides either the champion or Terutsuyoshi’s playoff opponent.
  • One Yokozuna wins, the other loses: The winner can claim the championship with a Day-15 win. The loser can force a 2-way or 3-way playoff.

Excitingly, we now know that no matter what happens tomorrow, the Day 15 Yokozuna face-off will definitely have the highest of stakes for both rikishi! We haven’t seen a playoff since Harumafuji’s memorable victory over Goeido at Aki 2017, and the last one between two Yokozuna was all the way back in January of 2014, with Kakuryu prevailing over Hakuho on that occasion. The last playoff to feature more than two wrestlers was the March 1997 battle royal in which Takanohana outlasted Akebono, Musashimaru, and Kaio.

Lower San’yaku

Mitakeumi’s 8th victory means that he’ll remain East Sekiwake for Aki, with Takakeisho dropping down into the West Sekiwake slot. Abi avoided his make-koshi today, and still has a chance to hold on to the East Komusubi slot with two more victories. He will try to pick up his 7th tomorrow against Ichinojo, whom he has yet to beat in 3 tries. Hokutofuji’s 8th victory today solidified his lead in the san’yaku promotion queue, with Endo (8-5) hot on his heels. The only other rikishi still hanging on to promotion hopes are Tomokaze, Aoiyama, Ichinojo, and (barely) Daieisho, who would need a second slot to open.

Division Exchanges

  • Definite demotions from Makuuchi: Kaisei, Yoshikaze, Yago.
  • In serious danger of demotion: Tochiozan.
  • Will be safe with one victory: Chiyomaru.
  • Probably safe, but could use another win: Toyonoshima, Takagenji.
  • Definite promotion from Juryo: Tsurugisho.
  • Likely promotion, but could use another win: Ishiura.
  • Should earn promotion with another win: Azumaryu, Yutakayama.
  • Still nursing promotion chances: Takanosho, Chiyoshoma, Wakatakage.

Ms1 Irodori won his “exchange bout” with J12w Ryuko, sending the latter to Makushita and most likely earning a slot in Juryo. J14w Kotonowaka staved off demotion for now, but still needs two victories to stay in the second division. It is likely that either 3 or 4 slots will Juryo slots will be open, although the J10 duo of Chiyonoumi and Arawashi, both 5-8, are not completely out of the woods yet. Two of the slots should go to Ms1e Seiro (4-2) and Irodori. The others in contention are Ms2w Hoshoryu, Ms3e Tamaki, and Ms4w Kaisho, all 3-3, and Ms5w Wakamotoharu, 5-1. Tomorrow, we have a “Darwin bout” between Hoshoryu and Tamaki and a Juryo test for Kaisho against Arawashi. Wakamotoharu’s fate will be decided on the final day, in what I’m guessing could be an exchange bout against Kotonowaka.

Nagoya Day 13 Highlights

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Enho, Hakuho (白鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoeko, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kotoyuki, Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nagoya Basho 2019, Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimanoumi, Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takagenji, Takarafuji (宝富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terutsuyoshi, Tochiozan (栃煌山), Tomokaze, Toyonoshima, Yago, Ōnoshō (阿武咲)
Photo courtesy of the NSK Twitter feed

A short highlights today, as my work has the bulk of my time. The big news is that the yusho race took a dramatic change as upstart Tomokaze surprised Yokozuna Kakuryu with a rapid hatakikomi immediately following the tachiai. I think that Kakuryu may have been looking to blast the newcomer clear of the dohyo, and over-committed.

Yokozuna Hakuho also won his match against Myogiryu in a bout that was both chaotic and a bit cautious. That right arm (heck, the left too) is still a concern. This means that both Yokozuna have 1 loss each, and the stakes for the final match on day 15 have been raised. With Hakuho in damaged condition, it’s not clear cut that he can be expected to dominate that final match.

Terutsuyoshi also won, and remains 1 behind the leaders. His bout against Onosho featured Onosho’s all to common balance and stance issues, stemming from his knee injury and apparently not completely successful reconstruction. After turning in 6-9 in Osaka, then 6-9 for Natsu, Terutsuyoshi’s turn around is almost miraculous. He has shown fantastic sumo in Juryo to get him to this point, but this is in fact his best run since his Makushita yusho in Kyushu 2016.

Other Matches Of Note

Sadanoumi defeats Takagenji – Sadanoumi reaches kachi-koshi, in his best tournament since January.

Kotoeko defeats Enho – Enho just can’t seem to get win #8, as Kotoeko deftly uses his maneuverability to keep Enho out of any meaningful attack position. Great planning and execution by Kotoeko.

Toyonoshima defeats Shohozan – Toyonoshima’s back is against the wall, and he once again rallies to victory. Shohozan gave him a decent fight, but ends up make-koshi after Toyonoshima’s relentless sumo.

Kotoyuki defeats Okinoumi – Once again Okinoumi wanted to set up a stalemate and wait strategy, but this Kotoyuki from a parallel dimension seems to be some sort of sumo ass-kicker, and just took charge.

Meisei defeats Chiyomaru – Meisei finally finds some sumo, and flattens Chiyomaru, who lands with a satisfying bounce similar to a round, inflatable child’s bouncy-toy.

Endo defeats Shimanoumi – Endo kachi-koshi as he dispenses with the “thinking man’s sumo” and just overruns Shimanoumi.

Hokutofuji defeats Ichinojo – This was a great match, as expected, and I have to hand it to Ichinojo for putting up a strong fight. Hokutofuji kept his cool and his composure in the face of an enormous, blue-mawashi’d obstacle.

Tamawashi defeats Takarafuji – Where has this Tamawashi been? This is the guy who should have been fighting all tournament. Sadly this pushed Takarafuji to make-koshi.

Mitakeumi defeats Kotoshogiku – Mitakeumi get his 8, and will retain his Sekiwake 1 East rank for September. He has Kakuryu for day 14, who he has managed to beat about ⅓ of the time they fight.

Nagoya Day 13 Preview

Bruce H Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Enho, Hakuho (白鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoeko, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kotoyuki, Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nagoya Basho 2019, Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimanoumi, Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takagenji, Takarafuji (宝富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terutsuyoshi, Tochiozan (栃煌山), Tomokaze, Toyonoshima, Yago, Ōnoshō (阿武咲) , , ,
Ichinojo vs Hokutofuji has my attention as the likely match of the day. Can Hokutofuji move the boulder?

The basho is running screaming into the final weekend, and it looks like it will probably come down to Hakuho vs Kakuryu for the hardware in the final match of the final day. This is a fairly decent way to end a basho, and I think most fans would be satisfied, in spite of the fact that we had the entirety of the Ozeki corps kyujo, and one Yokozuna banged up.

On the way to day 15, there are some rikishi who were doing well in the first few days that seem to have stalled out, and I am sure their fans are worried. This would include Hokutofuji, Abi, and Enho. This underscores my belief that we are going to have an exceptionally brutal final two days.

Nagoya Leaderboard

Tomokaze drops out, and it’s almost down exclusively to the two Yokozuna. If Terutsuyoshi wins day 13, I would guess they will put him against someone in San’yaku to make sure that the chances of a Maegashira 16w taking the yusho go closer to zero.

Leader: Kakuryu
Chaser: Hakuho
Hunt Group: Terutsuyoshi

3 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 13

Tochiozan vs Nishikigi – Both are make-koshi, and will avoid the Darwin death match syndrome that seems to be in the wings for so many of our upper division rikishi. This is to figure out who is going to get dropped how far down the banzuke. If the bulk of the top division finish 7-8 or 8-7, it’s going to make for a very interesting banzuke.

Sadanoumi vs Takagenji – Because I think that a bloody final weekend is what is in store, I am going to guess that Takagenji, how having secured his 8th loss, is going to rally and hand Sadanoumi a black star for day 13, bringing him close to the perilous 7-7 final day score.

Kotoeko vs Enho – Enho looks like he may have injured himself on day 12. He’s dropped the last 2 in a row, and I know he wants to hit 8 today and avoid the Darwin matches on day 15. Kotoeko has his 8, but he may want to run up the score.

Yago vs Daishoho – Yago has likely been condemned to ride the slow, smelly barge back to Juryo with our dear Yoshikaze and beloved Kaisei. But he can still help give Daishoho his 8th loss.

Shohozan vs Toyonoshima – Two tired, hurt veterans with 5-7 records going head to head. One of them will get a make-koshi today. The match of eternal sadness.

Kotoyuki vs Okinoumi – It could be expected that Kotoyuki will jump around like a mad penguin on a hot plate; I imagine Okinoumi will once again try to grapple with Mr 5×5 and slow the tempo of the match down. If he can put the match into that mode, he will probably pick up a much needed 7th win.

Onosho vs Terutsuyoshi – Somehow Onosho has pulled to 6-6, but he has his first ever match against compact sumo atomic reactor Terutsuyoshi, who is not the kind of fellow who would think 10 wins are enough.

Chiyotairyu vs Kagayaki – Both are coming in with 6-6 records. They have split the 6 prior matches. They are quite evenly matched, and who can tell right now which one has an advantage here. We will get to see if Chiyotairyu hurt anything other than his pride in the fall to end his match on day 12.

Meisei vs Chiyomaru – Can Meisei rally to extend his 2-0 career record over Chiyomaru today? Meisei really looks like he has nothing left, and each match is increasingly difficult for him. If he can win today, Chiyomaru will be make-koshi.

Shimanoumi vs Endo – Both are 7-5, so someone exits this match with a kachi-koshi. Endo won their only other meeting.

Ichinojo vs Hokutofuji – Oh dear, Hokutofuji has been fighting so well, but here he has to clear a boulder from his patch to kachi-koshi. Or will the boulder clear him?

Asanoyama vs Aoiyama – Asanoyama needs to “win out” to get his kachi-koshi, which would be another notable achievement for a young rikishi who has greatly improved his sumo. As we saw on day 12, if you let Aoiyama set up his oshi attack, there is not a whole lot that will stop him.

Shodai vs Ryuden – Shodai holds a 3-0 career advantage over Ryuden, who is already make-koshi. Shodai’s sumo was surprisingly good on day 12; can he make it two in a row?

Abi vs Daieisho – I would imagine that Abi was quite embarrassed to lose on day 12 due to falling down. Given his lanky frame, it’s an occupational hazard! Daieisho is fighting quite well, and has a 4-3 career advantage over Abi, so it should be a fight worth watching.

Takarafuji vs Tamawashi – Tamawashi is suffering this basho, and Takarafuji has the patience to hold on and win if he can stalemate Tamawashi, which is a big if. A loss today would put Takarafuji at 8, for a make-koshi.

Mitakeumi vs Kotoshogiku – Mitakeumi holds a 10-4 advantage over the Kyushu bulldozer, and he needs one more win for his 8th. I would expect that Kotoshogiku is going to once again struggle for traction, and it will come down to Mitakeumi not giving Kotoshogiku any opening.

Myogiryu vs Hakuho – Given Hakuho’s degraded state, this match is far from a sure thing. Myogiryu has been especially energetic this basho, and Hakuho’s day 12 caution indicates he is saving what he can for day 15 against Kakuryu. The goal here – don’t get any more hurt than you already are, Boss!

Kakuryu vs Tomokaze – Well, Tomokaze, you should take this as recognition of how far you have come. You get to fight a Yokozuna, and if you manage to put dirt on him, you are going to make the final 2 days even more exciting and unpredictable than they already are. But be aware that Kakuryu is showing some of his best sumo in years.