Decisions, decisions…

At the risk of having a post that’s more controversial than anything the president of the USA is going to do in the Kokugikan two days from now… I happen to disagree with Bruce’s opinion regarding the Tochinoshin/Asanoyama decision.

Possible, but inconclusive, touch

It’s true that Onomatsu oyakata is a well-known butcher of kyogi explanations. But is he a well-known butcher of actual decisions?

Before we go, let’s mention that no single frame can be proof that there was no touch. Take a look at the photo posted that Bruce posted earlier:

Here it’s clearly not touching

But this frame could have been taken just before or just after the critical moment. If you have a touching frame, it proves a touch. But if you have a not-touching frame, it doesn’t prove that there was no touch. Take a look at the video:

So, was that a touch? Was that just a shadow? Not even the luckiest photographer can conclude that there is no touch at all. The frame I posted could be a touch, or it could be shadow filling in the pixels. The cameras are not right next to the dohyo, and the resolution is not all that good.

An article at Asahi Shimbun (paywalled, but a good soul on Twitter took screenshots) reveals to us what happened during the monoii and the kyogi (conference) that followed it.

The monoii was raised by Hanaregoma oyakata, who was the one sitting closest to where tochinoshin’s foot was hanging over the tawara. He saw it touch, and raised his hand to mark a monoii.

The judges needed to make a call about it. Point one: the call cannot be a torinaoshi. Torinaoshi may only be called in cases where both rikishi touch ground at the same time (“dotai”). This wasn’t the case here. Either Tochinoshin touched out, in which case Asanoyama was still in and wins, or he didn’t touch out, in which case Tochinoshin is alive and wins.

The judges then called the video room. Unfortunately, the video room told them they cannot see a touch or a janome disturbance.

Point two: that doesn’t mean there was no touch. It just means that the videos they had were not conclusive. As I said, the frame I posted above could mean he touched, or it could just be shadow that fills the pixels.

Point three: a light enough touch would not leave a discernible mark on the janome. That is, discernible by the same video cameras. Yes, Tochinoshin is a heavy guy. But his huge muscles were working hard at keeping that heel from touching ground. If it did, it didn’t do so with all of his weight on it.

So at this point, the referees start to discuss the matter, because they have to reach a decision. All they have to go on is what they saw, and the only one who saw it up close is Hanaregoma. People in the crowd shout for a redo, but again, that’s impossible. Hanaregoma suggests a vote. But Onomatsu oyakata decides that Hanaregoma should call it, because he was the one who saw it and the other’s haven’t. Hanaregoma says there was a very light touch, and that’s the decision.

When a monoii is called, the ultimate decision is the judges’, and theirs alone. If there is a conclusive video that shows the monoii is wrong, it’s fine. But the video is there to help the judges – it’s never the decider.

Now, I’ve seen references to football or other sports. Those do not apply here. In sumo, the gyoji has to make a call at the end of each bout, no matter if he is sure or not. He has to call it even if there is a dotai. So the ultimate decision is not his, it’s the judges. One of my followers complained “if there is no conclusive evidence, it’s ridiculous to reverse the gyoji’s gunbai”. But the gunbai is not holy. It’s not “right by default”. A judge sat half a meter from the dohyo, was looking at the tawara, and saw something that the referee didn’t see from his side.

The shimpan don’t watch the bouts for entertainment value like we do. They concentrate on contact points and centers of gravity. While we may be admiring somebody’s kotenage, they will be watching the boring feet.

Were they right? Was Tochinoshin out? Well, it’s hard to tell. Because the video is inconclusive – even the good footage that is available to the video room, which is better than the footage that’s currently circulating through social media, most of which is taken with a smartphone from a TV screen (probably including the footage I included above).

Only one man saw the alleged touch. He may have been wrong. But was the decision making process bad? I think not. In particular, I don’t think Onomatsu oyakata’s decision to let the only man who saw it decide is unreasonable. The others didn’t see it, so they only act on hearsay. He has to have a decision by the end. It’s a tough call, but that’s what he had to work with.

But yes, he butchered the explanation again.

BruceThanks all for reading and commenting on this post. At this time I am going to end the ability to add further comments to this post. The call and the win / loss are recorded, and the tally has been settled. Endless thanks to Herouth for wading into a hot button subject and taking the time to explain.

There are 2 days left in the basho, and we will see if Tochinoshin can make his 10th.


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40 thoughts on “Decisions, decisions…

  1. Great post, I appreciate you putting it together.

    I think the call could have gone either way, to be honest. The discussion now borders on how many angels could dance on the head of a pin. The bumbled monoii created a perception of incompetence that should not be part of top division sumo. Its not the first time for Onomatsu oyakata as you point out.

    I will admit that as a sumo fan in the United States, I like the social context to adequately understand some of what happens in sumo in situations like this. To my American eye, I always favor that in edge cases like this, the win must go to the contestant that initiated the final offensive move. But keep in mind, I am just a fan watching TV where I can, like almost everyone else on this blog.

  2. I agree. I don’t think it was a horrible decision. I’m not sure if he touched or not, but at full speed, it sure looked like he might have. So many of us are rooting for Tochi to get that 10th win, but I’m not going to fault the judge here as if he made a horrendous decision.

  3. Thanks for the level-headed elaboration of this incident, the youtube comment sections are the exact opposite at the moment…
    To me it looked like he didn’t touch the sand but your frame shows that he was at the very least very very very close to it, maybe even touching it. Extremely hard call for the ringside judges. I just hope Tochinoshin gets his 10th win tomorrow so we have 4 Ozeki next tournament.

    • I hope he gets it on day 15… I happen to be a fan of Kakuryu’s. 😉

  4. Leaving a crucial decision to one individual alone on the basis of his sole claim to reverse a decision already made by the person held responsible on the basis of no supporting evidence is by far NOT a good decision making process. It means one judge at his leisure could make a killing at reversing a decision that has millions riding on it in bets and there are no checks or balances whatsoever. This is literally how lemmings propel themselves off cliffs.

    • You realize, of course, that lemmings don’t actually do that.

      So, he would have millions riding on this knowing in advance that there would be no conclusive evidence because Asanoyama happened to obscure the one forensic evidence that could have been useful?

      Normally, these things are easier to judge – the video has a conclusive frame, the janome stays hygienic, the pressure of the foot is a bit stronger. But there are edge cases. And you have to call them. Since this is a zero-sum game somebody gets hurt either way. Maybe they should change the rules to allow torinaoshi in case of inconclusive evidence.

    • it is also how many men go to prison. With one eye witness and a “Judge”. As forensic evidence was developed and points out. But with Sumo, arbitrary decisions and obscure cultural points still rule the day.

  5. Thanks for the inside scoop on what happened. From one angle, it did seem there was a possibility the heel went down. It was reasonable to call mono-ii. Too bad Asanoyama fell right on top of that spot, preventing a verification. I did not know a re-match is not allowed in cases like this.

  6. I really appreciate this post. I was pretty upset with the call initially, but the step-by-step explanation makes it much more palatable and make more sense. It’ll still hurt if Tochi can’t get another win in the next couple days, but it does seem to have been reasonable.

  7. I wonder if we can rule out reasons that go beyond the bout in that call.

    • I wonder if we have enough evidence to rule them in in the first place. 🤔

  8. Devastating loss for Tochinoshin, already struggling to gain the needed 10th win, and thinking he had achieved it, only to lose by a judge overturning the gyoji’s call. Now he will have to defeat at least one of the top 2 ranked rikishi to accomplish his return to Ozeki, having just lost 3 consecutive bouts to lower ranked, though capable wrestlers. All of that said–and i love Tochi–if he loses 5 consecutive bouts and is denied re-promotion, he has only himself to blame. I am hoping the point becomes moot, and he can secure that 10th victory, as a very poor taste will be left in the mouths of his fans–and many will point to yesterday’s loss to Asanoyama as a travesty (fair or unfair). After all, without the ruling by Hanaregoma oyakata, we would have a 3 way tie for the lead with two days left, and the Tochi/Kakuryu bout today possibly determining the Yusho.

    • I’d say that Tochinoshin has himself to blame for losing the other bouts but I don’t think it was his fault he lost to Asanoyama.

  9. I agree with you Herouth about everything but one (important?) bit: I don’t think you are right about leaving no mark on the janome. If his foot touched down even very lightly, it would leave a mark that the shimpan could point to as proof that he was out. The problem is that the shimpan could not investigate his landing spot themselves because Asanoyama crashed through it, leaving only video evidence. And the cameras…maybe…maybe…might not be able to pick up a very light footprint.

    I’m pretty confident that if the shimpan could have looked at the janome they would have seen undisturbed sand and ruled Tochinoshin the winner. But given what they could do, I completely agree with you that they should accept the shimpan’s eyewitness testimony as the final decision and not the cameras.

    (I decided not to prolong your argument with that other guy on Twitter)

    • Whoops…somehow I missed you clarifying the camera issue in this post. Had your twitter argument still in my head when I posted here. Nothing to see here.

    • That was exactly what I meant. I think the janome was designed for even light touches to be noticeable, but video cameras weren’t. I said in one of the other comments – this was a very unfortunate edge case.

      The other guy is actually our lksumo, and I respect his opinion.

  10. “Only one man saw the alleged touch. He may have been wrong. But was the decision making process bad? I think not. In particular, I don’t think Onomatsu oyakata’s decision to let the only man who saw it decide is unreasonable. ”

    Not only is it unreasonable, it’s ridiculous. The gyoji was as close as anyone with an unobstructed view. This basically came down to a “He said”, “He said” decision. which was decided in favor of the person that had no video evidence to suggest he’s right. If the gyoji can get overruled by one judge without evidence what function is there in having a gyojoi to begin with? What is the function of a monoii meeting if it is going to come down solely to 1 judge’s call?

    • The gyoji did not have an unobstructed view. It’s the other way around. Being inside the ring his view may well be obstructed by the foot itself. The shimpan on that side has a better view. In any case, it is indeed his word against Hanaregoma’s. But how do you suggest they make a decision given that there is no other evidence either way?

      • My suggestion is you accept the call of the person who’s job it is to make the call, the gyoji. Gyoji’s make 100’s of close calls each basho that are accepted without evidence. If you are going to say one judge can overrule him on word alone just because the video is inconclusive then you may as well announce the gyoji is just a flunky with no real responsibility. The reason to ask for a video review is to determine if there is anything to review. If nothing is determined then the call should stand. There was no determination of Hanaregoma’s call, it was just accepted. I don’t see that as the function of a monoii and I don’t think Onomatsu discharged his duty well in determining that is how the decision should be made.

        • The gyoji by definition is not the ultimate decider. He is the lowest level. This is evidenced by the fact that he has to call one side, whatever happens – even in a dotai. He can’t decide a dotai! Also by the fact that he has no voice in the kyogi, though he is present while it takes place. So in sumo, gyoji < shimpan. His decision stands as long as the shimpan accept it. Why not do without a gyoji? Probably because a kyogi is a lengthy process.

          • I never suggested he was the ultimate, merely the initial decider. Someone has to be. My point is that having a decision in place should mean there should be reason to believe that decision is wrong. One shimpan’s word absent any other evidence should not be sufficient. If it were one corrupt shimpan could reek havoc. As far as the gyoji not being able to decide a dotai that is untrue. He can and he does, based on his ability and what he saw. Video evidence suggesting he’s wrong and it is a dotai determines a torinaoshi is in orderr. Should a torinaoshi be allowed because one shimpan thinks it was a dotai? The video is often as inconclusive in such situations. Any dotai is an extremely close call.

            • A gyoji can’t call a dotai. He has to point his gunbai in one direction or the other. A dotai means a torinaoshi and a gyoji can never call a torinaoshi.

              • Did I say he can call a dotai? I said he has the ability to decide a dotai. In other words he has the ability to decide who won. Who touched first. A dotai is determined by looking at the video and coming to the conclusion that is was too close to make such a call. Not that the gyoji made the wrong call. After all a true dotai can be said to not really exist. Someone had to touch first even if it was by a 10,000th of a second. That isn’t what happened in this situation. The gyoji was determined to have made the wrong call based on video evidence which was at best inconclusive. Based solely on another eye witness. Why should one shimpan be able to determine who won? Would it be okay for 1 shimpan to call for a torianoshi? What is the function of a team of shimpan if that stands? Is video review only valid if it disproves what a sole shimpan calls?

          • If the gyoji’s decision is a mere suggestion, why do the top gyoji carry a dagger? Rhetorical question to emphasize the seriousness with which their decisions are expected to be taken, and the evidence required to overrule them

  11. Gosh, this was an excellent, thorough, and brave explanation, Herouth. I appreciate it very much and am now much more comfortable with the outcome. Thanks!

  12. The thing I would ask is why Hanaregoma’s arm does not go up when he sees Tochinoshin’s foot touch down? Don’t the judges raise their hand to indicate a touch outside the ring? His hand doesn’t even begin to go up till after the call is made.

    • He might be thinking that the gyoji saw it, and therefore doesn’t need a signal.

  13. Absent a mark in the janome or clear video to the contrary he was in. I have seen mere pressure on the tawara disturb the sand without leaving a mark. It is sad that the shimpan lacked the courage to simply say “I could be wrong”. Eyewitness observations without some manner of demonstrable physical evidence is always suspect – sad situation.

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