It’s almost that magical day that sumo fans wait 2 months for: The Japan Sumo Association will release the ranking list for the Natsu tournament, which starts 2 weeks from today. Tachiai will bring you the details as soon as it’s posted (we expect it in about 48+6 hours), and if you want to read through master prognosticator lksumo’s forecast you will find it here. The banzuke comes out on Tuesday. (Hat tip Herouth…per now deleted tweet.)
This will be the first banzuke where we see Takakeisho as an Ozeki, and we will see Tochinoshin reduced to a rank we call Ozekiwake – he is a Sekiwake, but 10 wins returns him to Ozeki. Given the brutal records of many fan favorites, we anticipate a large amount of churn when the Banzuke is published today. We expect to see micro powerhouse Enho make his Makuuchi debut, and for the spheroid known as Chiyomaru to return to the top division. But die hard fans want to know who will fill in the top division’s joi-jin, and we will be tracking new ranks for all of our lower division ones to watch. Check back soon for all of the glorious details.
My prediction:
Y: Hakuho (E), Kakuryu (W)
O: Goeido (1E), Takayasu (1W), Takakeisho (2E)
S: Ichinojo (E), Tochinoshin (W)
K: Aoiyama (E), Mitakeumi (W) (Mitakeumi will likely hold rank despite 7-8 make-koshi)
M1: Kotoshogiku (E), Hokutofuji (W)
M2: Abi (E), Endo (W)
M3: Chiyotairyu (E), Tamawashi (W),
M4: Okinoumi (E), Myogiryu (W)
M5: Daieisho (E), Yoshikaze (W)
M6: Ryuden (E), Takarafuji (W)
M7: Meisei (E), Kaisei (W)
M8: Kagayaki (E), Shodai (W)
M9: Tomokaze (E), Onosho (W)
M10: Asanoyama (E), Tochiozan (W)
M11: Shimanoumi (E), Shohozan (W)
M12: Chiyomaru (E), Sadanoumi (W)
M13: Yago (E), Ikioi (W)
M14: Enho (E), Chiyonokuni (W)
M15: Tokushoryu (E), Kotoeko (W)
M16: Terutsuyoshi (E), Daishoho (W)
M17: Toyonoshima
If Tochinoshin is fit he’ll get at least 10 wins. He’s pissed off and he wants his Ozeki rank back in the worst way! Hakuho will be kyujo the entire tournament. Enho will drive the other rikishi bonkers and he’ll get an 8-9 win kachi-koshi. We’ll see the return of sluggish Ichinojo and he’ll finish with no more than 8 wins. Mitakeumi will fihish with 9-10 wins and return to Sekiwake. Kakuryu, Kaisei, all 3 Ozeki and Tochinoshin will post double digit wins, and I think this is the tourney where Takayasu breaks free and wins the yusho.
Doesn’t make sense for Abi to bypass Chiyotairyu and Okinoumi, who both were ranked higher than him in the previous tournament and achieved the same score of 8-7.
Ditto for Yoshikaze ahead of Ryuden. There’s no way Chiyonokuni can stay in the top division. And what happened to Nishikigi?
I am really rooting for Tochinoshin to make his 10 wins. However…
Even supposing he is back to fitness – and even with Hakuho out injured – I am not sure how many wins I would expect Tochinoshin to get against the 5 ranked above him (Kakuryu, Goeido, Takayasu, Takakeisho, Ichinojo), all of whom looked in fine form at Haru.
And then there’s Aoiyama and Mitakeumi and even old Kotoshogiku who all seem extremely live and dangerous against him.
So I guess I am not feeling so confident about his prospects of converting Ozekiwake back to Ozeki. Just think what a struggle it was for Takakeisho to make his 10 last tournament and he was in pretty good nick. Tochi really needs some solid wins over a goodly number of his peers in the sanyaku if he is gonna make it….
So I looked it up. There have been 20 prior occasions of an Ozeki demoted to Sekiwake since 1969, when (I believe) the “win 10 and you’re back up” rule was introduced. 5 of those resulted in successes. So based on that, a 1 in 4 chance is a good starting point.
I would make it like this:
Rank: E1, W1, E2
Y: Hakuho, Kakuryu
O: Goeido, Takayasu, Takakeisho
S: Tochinoshin, Ichinojo
K: Aoiyama, Mitakeumi
1: Hokutofuji, Kotoshogiku
2: Endo, Chiyotairyu
3: Tamawashi, Okinoumi
4: Abi, Myogiryu
5: Takarafuji, Ryuden
6: Meisei, Yoshikaze
7: Tomokaze, Shodai
8: Kagayaki, Asanoyama
Forgot about Daieisho – I would place him between Endo and Chiyotairyu.
I think we in the US get the banzuke tomorrow afternoon. I believe it’s released first thing in the morning on Tuesday Japan time (a day later than the usual Monday morning release).
This what I ended up with.
Y: Hakuho, Kakuryu
O: Goeido, Takayasu, Takakeisho
S: Ichinojo, Tochinoshin
K: Aoiyama, Mitakeumi
M1: Kotoshogiku, Hokutofuji
M2: Chiyotairyu, Okinoumi
M3: Endo, Tamawashi
M4: Abi, Daieisho
M5: Takarafuji, Ryuden
M6: Myogiryu, Yoshikaze
M7: Meisei,,Shimanoumi,
M8: Shodai, Tomokaze,
M9: Kagayaki, Asanoyama,
M10: Onosho, Kaisei,
M11: Nishikigi, Shohozan
M12: Chiyomaru, Tochiozan
M13: Yago, Sadanoumi
M14: Enho, Tokushoryu
M15: Kotoeko, Terutsuyohi
M16: Takagenji, Daishoho
M17: Ihiura
In hindsight I appear to have committed a schoolboy error by putting Tochinoshin on the east side. Everyone else has him on the west so I must have gone against some precedent.
It’s going to be interesting what they do with lower makuuchi. I have Chiyoshoma being saved by the lack of viable alternatives. Enho and Tokoshoryu are also interesting as it’s virtually impossible to make the banzuke work without giving them a massive over-promotion to M14. With their records they are lucky to even get into the top division (if they do)
Will be interesting how high Shimanoumi goes as well