My Haru Banzuke forecast was right on target, if I do say so myself. In the upper ranks, the only deviation from the real thing was that I swapped the two Sekiwake after Tamawashi’s yusho, following what I thought was the precedent set when Mitakeumi and Ichinojo switched sides after the former won the Nagoya basho. Apparently, that was a one-off exception, and Takakeisho stayed on the East side despite finishing behind Tamawashi. Congratulations to Shin-Komusubi Hokutofuji on his sanyaku debut.
I am especially pleased with how close I was in the M1-M6 ranks, as this was a tricky area based on the Hatsu results, with a number of possible solutions. My only error was switching Tochiozan and Shodai at M3w and M4e, and I am beginning to see Bruce’s point about Shodai’s inordinate banzuke luck, as by all rights a 6-9 M1e should have stayed ahead of a 7-8 M3e.
In the M6-M12 ranks, I got a few things wrong. I thought Asanoyama would be promoted a rank after posting an 8-7 winning record at M8w, but (unusually) he was only moved to the East side, with Takarafuji taking the M7w slot instead, and Kotoshogiku filling the vacated slot at M8w. I also had the Ryuden/Yago and Yoshikaze/Chiyonokuni pairs in the wrong order.
In the lower ranks, I correctly called the number (5) and identity of promotions from Juryo. While I had Tomokaze making his debut at M13, I did not move him up quite far enough, as he ended up on the East side, ahead of Kagayaki. I am a bit surprised they let Kotoeko keep his M15w rank despite a 7-8 losing record, when there was room to demote him to M16e. In any case, this bumped Daishoho, not Toyonoshima as I had forecast, into the lowest promotion position. And as predicted, Yutakayama and Chiyoshoma were fortunate to hang on to the bottom two rungs of the Makuuchi ladder.
To sum up, I had the right rank for 33 of the 42 Makuuchi rikishi, and in 26 of these cases, I also forecast the correct side. Most of the misses were by half a rank, with the exception of Takarafuji and Toyonoshima (one rank) and Daishoho (one and a half). This is my best prediction by the total number of correct ranks, if not quite by Guess The Banzuke scoring, and my second top-ten finish in that game.
It’s the weekend that sumo fans have waited 6 weeks for – the time when the banzuke for the upcoming Haru Basho in Osaka is published. We expect it to appear some time around 4:30 PM Eastern US time on Sunday, and we will of course bring you coverage, including one of our world famous Tachiai podcasts.
Our own prognosticator, lksumo, has already gazed into his formula and produced his forecast, but who knows what is actually going to be published?
Leave your forecasts, predictions and wild guesses in the comments.
Hello sumo fans! Here is a new series that I hope will be a helpful resource for new sumo followers and a good refresher for longtime fans of the sport of giants. Sumo is a very complex sport it can be easy to get overwhelmed and confused by all the vocabulary. In episode one of Learning the Lingo, I briefly go over and break down five sumo terms including sekitori, hanamichi, and sagari.
If you enjoyed this episode and want to see more of the series, please let me know. As always, thanks so much for watching!
I assume that the people deciding on Ozeki promotions are aiming to promote rikishi who are likely to make long-term Ozeki and potential Yokozuna. You included some examples of the outcomes of Ozeki promotions, but it would be interesting to see more analysis of how successful the Ozeki promotion decisions have turned out to be. In other words, do the decision makers largely get it right, if they are aiming for long-term Ozeki?
This is a great question. Of course, what counts as a long-term or successful Ozeki is necessarily somewhat subjective, but we can look at the history to get an idea. As usual, I will limit the analysis to the six annual basho era from 1958 to the present. Sixty rikishi were promoted to Ozeki during this time. How have they fared?
Reaching The Top
A clear career goal for Ozeki is making it to Yokozuna, sumo’s highest rank. Of the 60 most recent Ozeki, 26 have made this final ascent. Five who have not are still active, although the chances that Kotoshogiku and Terunofuji regain the rank of Ozeki, much less become Yokozuna, seem exceedingly remote, and I would put the likely expected number of promotions from among Goeido, Takayasu, and Tochinoshin at one. In any case, the odds that an Ozeki takes the next step are close to 50:50.
While it could be argued that making Yokozuna always counts as success, there is one obvious exception: Kitao. He became the 60th Yokozuna, under the shikona Futahaguro, after only four basho as Ozeki and despite not winning a yusho. He failed to do so in his eight more tournaments at the top rank as well, becoming the only Yokozuna not to win a championship, and was forced to leave sumo in disgrace.
Many of the most successful Yokozuna have treated the second-highest rank as a brief waypoint on the climb to the top. The nine Ozeki not named Kitao who spent between 3 and 7 basho at the rank have 191 yusho among them, and seven of them are all-time great Dai-Yokozuna: Taiho, Wajima, Kitanoumi, Chiyonofuji, Akebono, Asashoryu and Hakuho. Of the three other modern Yokozuna with double-digit championships, Takanohana had to wait 11 tournaments (with 5 yusho!) for promotion, Kitanofuji took 21, and Musashimaru is tied for the most tournaments at Ozeki before Yokozuna promotion with 32, as well as the most Ozeki yusho with 5. The average number of basho at Ozeki before promotion is 13.5, or a little over two years.
Interestingly, in light of the oft-discussed “two consecutive yusho or equivalent” guideline for Yokozuna promotion, fully half of the 26 promotions happened with either zero (Kitao and Mienoumi) or one yusho as Ozeki, and only 11 followed consecutive championships. For more on the rather fluid and ever-changing criteria for Yokozuna status, I highly recommend this terrific video by Chris Gould:
You can skip to the part about modern promotion guidelines at 8m 15s, but the whole thing is well worth a watch.
The Terminal Ozeki
What of the 29 (retired) rikishi for whom sumo’s second-highest rank represented the pinnacle of their career? They range from Daiju, who lasted 5 undistinguished basho at the rank in 1973-74, to Kaio, who set the standard for Ozeki longevity and excellence with 65 basho (tied for the most with Chiyotaikai) and 4 yusho, the most among Ozeki who did not become Yokozuna. On average, an Ozeki career has spanned just over 27 basho, or 4.5 years. The time spent at the rank drops to around 21 basho, or 3.5 years, if we include those who vacate it through Yokozuna promotion. Given that there have been 60 Ozeki promotions in just over 60 years, 3.5 also represents the expected number of Ozeki on the banzuke at any one time, so we are a tad below average with three at the moment.
How many of the 29 can we regard as “successful”? Six lasted 12 basho or fewer at the rank, with zero yusho. These are pretty clearly misses, for one reason or another. On the other end of the distribution, there are eight “super-Ozeki” who held the rank for 36 or more basho and won at least one yusho. In addition to the aforementioned Kaio and Chiyotaikai, this group includes such notables as Takanohana I, the father of two future Yokozuna, Konishiki, the first foreign Ozeki, and Kotooshu, the first European to raise the Emperor’s Cup. The other 15 can be regarded as average Ozeki, serving between 2 and 6 years and often picking up a yusho along the way (Wakashimazu managed 2 yusho, and Tochiazuma won 3). So, if we regard these as “successful”, then the decision makers “get it right” almost 90% of the time; if we raise the bar to either lasting longer than average at the rank or being promoted to Yokozuna, this rate drops to a little over 70%.
Does The Quality Of The Ozeki Run Matter?
As noted in my previous post, 18 of the 60 Ozeki reached this rank after recording fewer than 33 victories in the 3 basho before promotion, 14 recorded exactly 33, and 28 recorded more. The average is just over 33 wins. We can ask if the number of wins during the Ozeki run correlates with subsequent success at the rank.
How do we measure success? We can try a couple of ways. First, does the number of wins predict which Ozeki go on to make Yokozuna? The answer is “no”—the correlation is actually slightly negative, with 33 wins for those who eventually make the next level, and 33.4 for those who do not. Ten of the 18 rikishi promoted with fewer than 33 wins reached the highest rank. Next, we can look at the length of the Ozeki career among those top out at the rank. Here, there is a weak positive correlation (0.18) with the number of wins, but it’s not statistically significant.
Interestingly, the one metric that does show a moderate correlation (0.39) with the number of wins during the Ozeki run is career yusho won by those who make Yokozuna. Only two of the 10 Dai-Yokozuna were promoted to Ozeki with fewer than 33 wins, while six recorded more than the target number. The future greats usually have no trouble racking up wins on their way to Ozeki promotion, just like they tend to pass through the rank quickly.
How Do The Active Ozeki Stack Up?
With the historical numbers in hand, I’ll close with a brief look at the active Ozeki (or former Ozeki). Assuming that Kotoshogiku’s Ozeki days are behind him, his 32 basho and 1 yusho would place him somewhat above average among those who never made Yokozuna. Were his career to end today, Goeido, with 27 basho at the rank and one yusho, would already grade out as pretty much exactly an average terminal Ozeki, and of course he will continue to accrue service time, so the scorn often heaped on him is undeserved. With his 14 basho as Ozeki, the sad tale that is Terunofuji falls just outside the bottom six. And we can all hope that the stories of the Ozeki careers of Tochinoshin and Takayasu are far from finished.
