While preparing my Guess The Banzuke entry, I took another look at my forecast. In particular, inspired by Herouth’s comment, I tried to tease out patterns from the choices made by the banzuke committee for the previous two tournaments, the only ones since the Shimpan department turned over after the recent elections. I also spotted a minor data entry error in my spreadsheet—I had credited Kyokutaisei with 5 wins, rather than the 6 he actually got, which affected his placement.
The resulting changes aren’t major. None of the upper ranks are affected at all. About half of the maegashira predictions are identical between the two forecasts, and most of the rest differ by half a rank. The exceptions are moving Asanoyama up a rank, in deference to his 11 wins, at the expense of Chiyonokuni, moving Shohozan up a rank, to reflect the lenient recent treatment of demoted Komusubi, moving Aoiyama up a rank, and moving Kyokutaisei above the Juryo promotions to correct the error noted above. We’ll see if this forecast is actually more accurate than the original one when the rankings are released in less than a week!