Nagoya banzuke crystal ball part 2

This post is the follow-up to Nagoya banzuke crystal ball part 1.

Lower maegashira

M5 Chiyoshoma Tochiozan
M6 Ichinojo Onosho
M7 Daieisho Aoiyama
M8 Takanoiwa Ishiura
M9 Tokushoryu Chiyotairyu
M10 Okinoumi Shohozan
M11 Daishomaru Chiyonokuni
M12 Arawashi Takarafuji
M13 Takekaze Sokokurai
M14 Sadanoumi (J) Chiyomaru (J)
M15 Nishikigi (J) Kotoyuki
M16 Kaisei/Gagamaru (J)?

Make-koshi at Natsu in red; kachi-koshi in green; (J) = promotion from Juryo.

That looks like a lot of red. So I counted, and 14 of the rikishi in this part of the banzuke had losing records at Natsu. I guess that’s why they’re here. Only 6 of the wrestlers here who were in Makuuchi at Natsu had winning records, most notably Onosho, who jumps all the way from M14 to M6. It’s probably to Onosho’s benefit that he takes a big jump up the banzuke but gets more experience before having to face the highest ranks. Conversely, Chiyonokuni tumbles all the way from M1 to M11 (see “meat grinder, the” in the previous post; everyone but Endo finds themselves here: Chiyoshoma, Tochiozan, Daieisho, Aoiyama, Okinoumi).

I learned my lesson from Natsu banzuke prediction and stuck entirely to the order dictated by my computed ranks. So the only decision was how to break ties. In general, I gave the nod to the rikishi ranked higher at Natsu. But in a few cases, I bumped up wrestlers with kachi-koshi above those with make-koshi: Tokushoryu and Chiyotairyu above Okinoumi and Shohozan, Daishomaru above Chiyonokuni and Arawashi, and Chiyomaru and Nishikigi above Kotoyuki.

Finally, Kaisei/Gagamaru seems like a complete toss-up. Kaisei went 7-8 in Makuuchi. His 7 wins include 2 over Juryo opponents and a fusen “win” over Kotoyuki. Gagamaru went 9-6 in Juryo, including 1-1 against Makuuchi opponents. Their recent performances don’t give any reason to expect anything more than a mediocre performance by either at the bottom of Makuuchi, with a good chance of demotion to Juryo after Nagoya. But someone has to fill M16e…

3 thoughts on “Nagoya banzuke crystal ball part 2

  1. Well there are only 2 weeks to go before the real thing is published, so I’ll get my ten pence in here. I’ve tweaked my system and am hoping to get a good few hits this time.

    Y: Hakuho, Harumafuji, Kisenosato, Kakuryu
    O: Terunofuji, Goeido, Takayasu
    S: Tamawashi, Mitakeumi
    K: Yoshikaze, Kotoshogiku
    M1: Shodai, Takakeisho
    M2: Hokutofuji, Tochinoshin
    M3: Endo, Ikioi
    M4: Ura, Chiyoshoma
    M5: Tochiozan, Kagayaki
    M6: Daieisho, Ichinojo
    M7: Okinoumi, Aoiyama
    M8: Takanoiwa, Chiyonokuni
    M9: Shohozan, Onosho
    M10: Ishiura, Takarafuji
    M11: Takekaze, Tokushoryu
    M12: Arawashi, Sokokurai
    M13: Sadanoumi, Chiyotairyu
    M14: Daishomaru, Chiyomaru
    M15: Nishikigi, Kotoyuki
    M16: Kaisei

    • Lots of similarities, especially at the top and the bottom, and some interesting differences in the middle. I’m predicting much bigger drops for Okinoumi and Chiyonokuni, and a bigger rise for Onosho and Chiyotairyu. Daishomaru at M14 must be a glitch, as he went 8-7 at M13 so should rise, not drop.


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