Congratulations to Onosato for what we hope is the first of many yusho! Now that the bouts are over and all the hardware has been handed out, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how the results are likely to reshuffle the rankings.
The Named Ranks
Terunofuji will remain the sole Yokozuna; Tachiai wishes him as complete a recovery as possible, with the hope that he can fully participate in the Nagoya basho. The result of the final Natsu bout means that O1e Hoshoryu (10-5) will switch positions with O1w Kotozakura (11-4). O2e Takakeisho (0-2-13) will be kadoban, requiring 8 wins in July to save his rank. And O2w Kirishima (1-6-8) suffered his second losing record in a row, which means that he’ll fall to Sekiwake, with one shot to regain the Ozeki rank with double-digit wins in Nagoya. S1w Abi (10-5) successfully defended his rank with his best san’yaku performance to date, and we’ll have 3 Sekiwake for the first time since November by virtue of our champion forcing a promotion from Komusubi with his 12 wins. That means that two Komusubi slots are open; M1w Daieisho (11-4) is a lock for one, while the second is a close call between M2e Hiradoumi (9-6) and M5w Meisei (10-5). Rank-record combination and schedule strength favor Hiradoumi, so he should make his san’yaku debut, unless Meisei’s prior san’yaku experience wins out. Whichever of them isn’t Komusubi is a lock for the top maegashira slot.
What of Ozeki runs, you ask? Officially, the NSK said that Onosato’s run just started, as his 11 wins at M5w in March came at too low a rank to count. Unofficially, they’d probably have to promote him in July with either a yusho or 13+ wins, though anything less would likely mean waiting for September. Abi posted double-digits in san’yaku, so he’s on a run as well (his 9 wins at Komusubi last time mean that mathematically, he could reach the 33 over 3 threshold with 14 wins in Nagoya). And Daieisho’s 11 wins from M1w, while they aren’t officially a start of anything, could serve as a foundation given sufficiently strong performances in July and September. And before anyone asks, no, Kotozakura’s 11-4 jun-yusho is not the start of a tsuna run!
Filling out the Joi
So, M1e is taken care of, and its current occupant, Atamifuji (7-8), who came thisclose to a san’yaku debut, can slide over to M1w. What do we do from there? The next winning record belongs to [checks notes] M7w Mitakeumi (8-7). I expect him to get a very generous promotion. There’s also demoted Sekiwake Wakamotoharu (4-8-3), whose fall could be very gentle indeed. Likewise, the rikishi with losing records between the ranks of M2 and M5 may find themselves treated very leniently.
Division Exchanges
There are 5 rikishi in Juryo who posted records that warrant promotion: the yusho winner and former Sekiwake J6w Wakatakakage (14-1), J3e Endo (12-3), who’ll be making an immediate return after only his 3rd career basho in the second division, J3w Chiyoshoma, who returns after a 4-basho Juryo stint, J5e Kagayaki (11-4), who likewise was last in Makuuchi in September, and J2e Bushozan (9-6), who’s recently been a classic elevator rikishi (too good for Juryo, not good enough for Makuuchi).
Conveniently, 5 top-division incumbents warrant a trip to Juryo. Sadly, one of them is the March champion M6e Takerufuji, whose ankle injury did not heal in time for May. The others are M17e Tsurugisho (3-12), M16e Tomokaze (2-13), M13e Mitoryu (2-9-4) and newcomer M15e Tokihayate (6-9), who lost a de facto demotion playoff to M15w Roga (7-8) on the final day. Two rikishi are on the bubble, but I don’t think they’ll exchange M12w Nishikifuji (5-10) and runner-up J12e Onokatsu (13-2), though one more loss on the part of the former or one more win on the part of the latter might have done it.
Finally, we come to the Makushita-Juryo exchanges, and here things did not work out so neatly. Two rikishi were slated for demotion before the final day: J13w Chiyomaru (4-11) and J13e Oshoumi (5-10). Their places were spoken for by Ms1w Kayo (5-2), who’ll be making his sekitori debut in Nagoya, and yusho winner Ms11e Fujiseiun (7-0), returning to Juryo after an injury-related drop. Two additional incumbents were on the bubble going into Day 15, and they were paired with two promotion hopefuls in direct exchange bouts. Ms2w Nabatame (5-2) earned his Juryo debut by prevailing over just-promoted J14w Kazekeno (7-8), who will have to fight his way back up from Makushita. Ms1e Akua, who entered the day at 3-3, false-started 3 times against J8w Hakuoho (5-6-4), making contact each time and once delivering a slap and driving the Juryo man off the dohyo. After these shenanigans, I was very happy to see Hakuoho counter Akua’s latest kakenage attempt by driving him into the ground with a sukuinage, thereby reaching safety and keeping Akua in the third division.
With no additional openings, four rikishi who had winning records in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone will miss out. The hardest-done-by is Ms3e Kiryuko (5-2), whose rank and record would normally guarantee promotion. The Juryo promotions should be confirmed on Wednesday. The rest of the rankings will be out on July 1, and I’ll try to put up a Crystal Ball post before then. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments!
Akua was a real jerk in that bout. He is joining my list (fortunately short) of disliked wrestlers, mostly bullies.
I hope Takerufuji’s ankle heals well with his time off.
Glad to have Wakatakakage, Endo and Chiyoshoma back looking so well.
Thanks for the info and insights!
Thanks for the great post!
I am SO HAPPY for Wakatakakage (one of my favorites), his comeback is Amazing to say the least! Always glad to see the elegant technician Endo, and really hoping to see Onokatsu! Also, Awesome Job Hakuoho!!! (I’m not fond of Akua either)! Glad for Chiyoshoma but really sad for Takerafuji – really hope he’s better soon!
Looking forward to your further predictions!
Chiyoshoma was terrific this basho. It appears that he has added to his upper body strength.
Kagayaki also impressed me. He seemed more focused and disciplined.
Super interesting Iksumo.
Personally, i think there will only be 4 exchanges between Juryo and Makuuchi. And that they’ll leave Takerufuji at M17. Bushozan will have to settle for J1. If they absolutely want to promote him back to Makuuchi, it’s Nishikifuji that they’ll send down.
I believe they will not want to send back down a Yusho Champion immediatly back after winning a championship because #1: It would be some kind of a “waste”. He would be tearing everyone down there. And #2: Spectator (especially those with big pocket that get to their seat late) would be wanting to see him fight ! And in the top division.
Not to mention it would kinda give some strange “image” to the prestige of the Grand Prize of the Yusho. «Hey you ! You were so good that you were worthy of winning and astonishing Grand Cup and all the prizes ! Buuuut, we are immediatly sending you back in the “lower” division with the other less good rikishi.»
They will want to at least give him one other chance to fight in the top division after his winning yusho. The only reason i would foresee them sending him directly back to Juryo would be if they (the Sumo association) would have some inside information about Takerufuji health condition and would know that he would not be able to participate in the next basho and would also sit this one out.
They had absolutely no problem with sending Ichinojo to juryo only three tournaments after his top division championship.
Yes, they did. But for Ichinojo, it was completly a different case. Not comparable at all ! He showed up and fought all the days in the next two basho following his yusho. And his demotion was entirely due to his own poor performance by his own two hands. (In other words, he digged his own grave toward juryo.)
Then, when he went 0-15 at M7 (one rank difference than Takerufuji) after two previous makekoshi in that january basho with his 6-9 and a bad 4-11, he already had quite tarnished the glorious shine of his yusho win. BUT what is the most important to remember, it’s that Ichinojo went 0-15 that basho not because of an injury kyujo, but because he was SUSPENDED by the sumo kyokai. For his behavior outside the ring.
The sumo elders were certainly not going to be lenien then about his demotion and feel any remorse sending him to juryo because of that at that rank.
The exactly same arguments already failed after last basho…
They would certainly want the hot yusho winner to fight the joi in the next tournament, therefore they‘d promote him at least to M4 (my words). I was wrong then and I guess U‘re clearly wrong now.
You will be wrong. They don’t care about that. The argument would be that if he is that good, he will be back in Makuuchi in no time. There is also no guarantee he will completely healthy a a basho in Juryo might serve him better.
He will probably end up at around J3, that’s where others with comparable rank&win combinations were send. And yes in 2003 Tochinonada ended at M17, but that’s because the next best promotion candidate was at J7e with 10 wins, not a J2e with 9. For reference, everyone with 0 wins from M5 got demoted since 2000.
He would probably even get demoted from M3, as the promotion cases are quite strong this time, despite that being normally safe even with no wins.
Looking at the scores in Juryo, I think J2e is most likely—he should go behind Tokihayate and probably Onokatsu, but after that there’s a huge gap.
Not to pile on Akua but he has been on the top of my very short list for awhile, and it’s usually his tachiai rush tactics every time. Knocked Atamifuji rolling ass over teakettle last year, that was it for me. Hope Hakuoho can heal up and fight Onosato at the top soon. Stoked for Fujiseiun, and hoping Tokihayate can stay in Makuuchi though he probably won’t Exciting basho!
Instead of sending Takerufuji down, do you think there’s a chance of sending Roga (7-8 at M15) down instead? I know it would be sort of a harsh fall, but it doesn’t seem that far fetched, does it? To have a losing record at such a low rank of M15, that seems at least a reasonable demotion to me. Or am I dreaming? Really hoping they give Takeru another chance if he’s healthy enough for it!
With the banzuke extending to M17, it would be extremely unusual for Roga to go down in any case, and especially when someone else has a record that pretty much always goes down
To all the people in the comments saying that Takerufuji may stay in Makuuchi by nature of his Yusho, allow me to explain why he won’t.
The Banzuke is created by analyzing where each rikishi lands mathematically, and then analyzing rank-record combinations to fill the empty spots. In the Haru Basho, M6e Tsurugisho was demoted to M17e with two wins, so a winless Basho from M6e would place Takerufuji somewhere around J2. The fact that he won a Yusho will not be taken into account.
Also, by placing Takerufuji in the Juryo division, they may be doing him a favor by allowing him to compete at a slightly lower level to allow him to reach his full health. If he can score a record better than 9-6, he should be repromoted to Makuuchi for the Aki Basho. From the lower reaches of the division, he may even be able to contend the Yusho again.
As for the Nishikifuji-Onokatsu exchange, I would like to see Onokatsu reach Makuuchi, though I think that won’t happen until the Aki Basho.
I leave the banzuke math to others and don’t claim to know anything about it. And I do think giving Takerufuji an easier time in juryo could be good for him. I really don’t want his decision to go for that yusho while injured to be something he has cause to rue for a long time.
It does seem that I have heard knowledgeable people imply that the banzuke “rules” are not always followed, in the case of Shimanoumi, who gets extreme lenience apparently so that he will be able to have enough basho as a sekitori to be able to take over the stable run by his wife’s father. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong!
That’s a more insider reason than lenience to Takerufuji would be, of course. I don’t think they say “Give him a chance, it wasn’t his fault, so let’s keep him up.”
There are certainly borderline cases where factors other than math may enter into the decisions (though these are usually speculations on our part). Some combination of Takerufuji being ranked a little higher (say M4), Nishikifuji having one more loss, and Bushozan getting one less win could have put us in that territory, but this scenario is just too clear-cut.
Putting all of the “they might save Takerufuji” to one side (I agree with your assessment)…
I wonder if there is a historical case, or if this will be a new curiosity for the record books, of a rikishi winning the makuuchi yusho and then having their next bout take place in Juryo?
Seems like it would be a first
Yeah, I think Ichinojo set the previous record by fighting in juryo 4 basho after his makuuchi yusho.
I think that this would be a first-time event, as I read somewhere that Tokushoryu’s Juryo demotion five tournaments after winning the championship was a new record, which I believe was then broken by Ichinojo’s three tournaments before demotion.
The (formerly) complete list of makuuchi yusho winners who dropped to juryo:
http://www.sumoforum.net/forums/topic/34111-trivia-bits/?do=findComment&comment=433636
(Posted after Tokushoryu’s demotion. Since then, Ichinojo with 3 basho and Wakatakakage with 8 have added their names.)
Completely agree with everything. The promotion/demotion picture seems pretty clear cut this time, but the ranking of the promotees and devotees might be tricky.
This Juryo basho has been by far the strongest leaderboard I have ever seen. It’s a pity that Endo messed up the last fight … 14-1, 13-2, 2×12-3 and 11-4. Pretty unusual for Juryo.
If Hakuoho returns to form/health this last second safe could prove quite valuable. The unsportsmanlike behaviour of Akua was disgusting.
The only small uncertainty is if Onokatsu could get swapped with Nishikifuji, but given recent decisions that seems as likely as me winning the lottery. Hadn’t there been that botched call with Bushozan, things would be a lot less clear.
But I think one more tournament in Juryo will serve Onokatsu well.
You’re right, I forgot about that blown call, Tokihayate might have been saved otherwise.
Yes–Onokatsu is probably better off at J1 than M17. At M17, other than a visit from Juryo, all his matches would be against higher ranked Maegashira. At J1 (again, other than a visit to Maegashira), all his matches will be against lower ranked Juryo. It will be easier to get a good record at J1 , which should lead to a higher Maegashira placement for the next tournament.
Congratulations to Nabatame on his likely promotion to Juryo. Well deserved for one of the good guys!
There could be another slot open in juryo. I don’t really understand how the kabu system works but I sense rumblings of a Myogiryu retirement.
he’d have to hand in his papers in the next few hours—it’s Wed morning in Japan and the banzuke meeting is later today