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Kyushu Day 5 Preview

Josh K Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyomaru, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Daishomaru, Endo (遠藤), Enho, Hakuho (白鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kotoeko, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kotoyuki, Kyushu Basho 2019, Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimanoumi, Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tsurugisho, Wakatakakage, Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

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Incredibly, the Kyushu injury curse continues! Wakatakakage will be kyujo from Day 5, which means that we’ve lost one sekitori per day in addition to Ichinojo, who started the tournament on the sidelines. He has not been officially added to the NSK’s list at the time of writing, but if reports are true, injury has taken one of the co-leaders off the board (and handed a useful win to Kagayaki). It’s a good job these tournaments are only 15 days…

[Edited to add: Tochinoshin has now been pronounced kyujo as well with an abdominal injury. Apart from the extremely unlikely scenario in which he miraculously returns from Day 8 and wins out, this will end his attempt to reclaim his Ozeki status.]

What We’re Watching on Day 5

Terutsuyoshi vs Daishomaru – Daishomaru came with a game plan on Day 4 and he’ll need to show more of the same energy in his pushing attack against an undersized opponent in Terutsuyoshi. Both men are struggling a bit to find their best sumo, and the head to head is split one apiece.

Daishoho vs Takanosho – Woof.

Nishikigi vs Chiyotairyu – For me, Chiyotairyu was at his absolute best on Day 4. It was an unrelenting forward moving machine. He needs to avoid getting his arms locked up by Nishikigi in this match, which feels all about direction. If Chiyotairyu can go forward in a straight line from the tachiai, he’s got a great chance, but if Nishikigi can redirect him into lateral movement, the match will favour the Isenoumi man.

Ishiura vs Chiyomaru – Ishiura proved that it’s more about the size of the fight in the dog on Day 4. Interestingly he seems to do better against smaller opponents while miniature stablemate Enho claims to do better against the larger opponents. Ishiura is definitely not getting his arms around Chiyomaru’s belly so again it’s going to have to be mobility that gets used as a primary weapon here. And it seems to work: Ishiura has taken 8 of 12 from the Kokonoe man.

Kotoshogiku vs Shodai – It’s another Kyushu derby, as Fukuoka’s Kotoshogiku gets Kumamoto’s Shodai. There are contrasting fortunes here as the former Ozeki is winless, while a win for unbeaten Shodai would move him into sole possession of the lead. Shodai took more initiative than we’ve seen at the tachiai in the previous day’s fixture and it worked out well for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he reverts to type in this match as it will allow him a better grip on Kotoshogiku’s mawashi. The Sadogatake man hasn’t drawn a lot of luck in the fixture list so far, and I don’t think that will change here.

Sadanoumi vs Shimanoumi – Sadanoumi has won both the past matchups and appears to be yet again quietly putting together a nice tournament. Shimanoumi might be a tough character to move but after his impressive performance against Yutakayama, Sadanoumi will be coming into this match full of confidence. He’s won both prior matches against Shimanoumi.

Shohozan vs Yutakayama – Local fan favourite Shohozan has been at the peak of his powers in this tournament, running roughshod over the middle of the rank and file. I predict a riot in this encounter: after the frantic grapple and throw action on Day 4, I think he has recharged his harite and tsuppari machine. Yutakayama was really motoring along but the manner of his defeat on Day 4 means he will be open for examination here: was it just a blip or is he still coming to grips with routine opposition?

Tsurugisho vs Kotoeko – Tsurugisho seems to be adjusting well to top division life. Kotoeko seems a little bereft of confidence at the moment. This will be the 11th bout between the two, who have registered five shiroboshi apiece in their previous encounters. The form guide would indicate Tsurugisho to hold the best chance.

Aoiyama vs Enho – It’s a first time meeting of two rikishi with vastly different styles, builds and fanbases. I tend to be in the camp that thinks actually, Enho’s on a great career trajectory. That he hasn’t hit a huge 12 or 13 win tournament yet means that he’s slowly adapted to the higher quality of opponent, and he’s been tested gradually rather than getting thrown in at the top end and getting his confidence wrecked. He will still take his lumps from time to time, and there are few better to dole those out than Big Dan. I have a hard time thinking that Aoiyama is going to be able to keep up with Enho’s mobility and simply blast him out of the dohyo, so I think he reverts to the form that has served him well recently and tries a slap or pull down. Spare a thought for Enho, who is likely to try and bury his head in Aoiyama’s… well, let’s not mention it.

Onosho vs Kotoyuki – Here’s a matchup of two pusher-thrusters in rather different form. Kotoyuki has continued his impressive, forward moving, sumo. While there’s not much difference in their records this early on, it’s the manner of Onosho’s defeats that I would consider to be concerning. These guys have split their past matches one apiece, but Onosho’s win came in 2017 and both these guys are different animals now in terms of their genki level. This should be a very quick match, and one that presents Kotoyuki with a great chance to keep up his momentum.

Tamawashi vs Ryuden – I think Tamawashi has the beating of Ryuden in this match, as Ryuden has become a bit of a Tochinoshin-lite for me. While he has great heart, he doesn’t possess the dominating mawashi ability of the Georgian former-ish Ozeki, and he’s also susceptible to pusher-thrusters.

Hokutofuji vs Asanoyama – This has to be the highlight bout of the second half of activity. Both of these 3-1 men have a real legitimate shout at yusho contention and/or further san’yaku promotion in their current form. I loved that Asanoyama just shrugged off his bodyslam by Hakuho to come back and reel off another victory. Hokutofuji has been absolutely fearless, and similarly overcame an early defeat to the GOAT to put massive dents in Ozeki promotion and retention challenges from Mitakeumi and Takayasu. Surprisingly it’s only the 5th meeting (past matches have been split two apiece) of these two rikishi, and it could be a rivalry that takes centre stage over the coming years. Hokutofuji must keep up his speed off the tachiai: if he can establish his pushing attack early he has a real chance. But if Asanoyama is allowed any opportunity to pull him off balance with a slap or a mawashi grip, then the former yusho-winner will have a great shot himself.

Abi vs Endo – Both of these guys enter the match in disappointing form. Abi has been far short of his usual energetic self, and has displayed sloppy footwork over his opening matches. That would appear to hand the opportunity to Endo, an inconsistent technician with extremely sound ring sense. But Abi still has it in his locker to blow Endo away, which is going to rely on a storm of tsuppari straight from the tachiai. The longer this match goes the more likely the momentum shifts to Endo. Abi has a 5-2 edge in the rivalry.

Daieisho vs Tochinoshin – Tochinoshin has done well to bounce back from an 0-2 start, and may feel he’s finding enough form to make his 10 win challenge to regain Ozeki status a reality. Daieisho is probably the worst opponent to run into at that moment, as the smaller pusher-thruster has won the past two from the Georgian (who leads 6-3 overall), has a style of sumo Tochinoshin typically finds it difficult to cope with these days, and is also fighting at the peak of his game to date. Even if he is the presumptive favourite on paper, a win here for Tochinoshin would go a long way to restoring the confidence that he can win at the top level. [Edited to add: there are unconfirmed reports at this stage that Tochinoshin may also be going kyujo, which would be incredibly significant as it would end his efforts to automatically regain Ozeki status. More to follow.][Edited again to add: Tochinoshin is now confirmed kyujo and will be set for significant demotion if as expected he does not return. Daieisho will get the fusen-sho victory and improve to 3-2.]

Mitakeumi vs Okinoumi – Okinoumi has had a really horrible fixture list so far, picking up only a fusen-sho in four days of action. But he can take a lot of heart from pushing Hakuho all the way in his previous match, and should be a tough customer for Mitakeumi. The Sekiwake has very little margin for error going forward in his Ozeki promotion push, having dropped another match he would have been expected to win to Daieisho. Okinoumi has won 2 from 3 against Mitakeumi, whose challenge here is to establish a strong pushing-thrusting attack from the off. While Mitakeumi’s all around game has improved immensely, he is not a match for the veteran on the mawashi and needs to tailor his attack appropriately here.

Meisei vs Takayasu – While the form guide would suggest we should be fearful for the Ozeki here, I think Takayasu has a good chance to win this. Meisei has really turned his game up several levels since the start of the Aki basho, but if you look at where Takayasu has been blown away in Fukuoka, they have been in matches against extreme pusher-thrusters: which Meisei is not. Meisei is a tenacious young rikishi who may be a san’yaku fixture for years to come… but I think unless he has lost all confidence, a one-armed Takayasu desperate for wins should be able to get the job done here.

Takakeisho vs Takarafuji – By this point, against a depleted field, Takakeisho probably expects to be in a yusho race no matter what. But the immediate aim is a healthy 8+ wins to retain his Ozeki status for the first time without falling back into kadoban. Takarafuji is probably a good opponent for him, as the defensive specialist needs to be able to actually get a hold of his opponent to stalemate them, and this is not an opportunity that Takekeisho typically affords to his opposition. I’ll tip another win for the Ozeki in this match, with the 3-1 Takakeisho leading their head-to-head rivalry 3-1.

Myogiryu vs Hakuho – Hakuho’s won 19 of 20 from Myogiryu, and the last 8 have all come via different kimarite. The Hakuho of old would be searching to try and win with another different move just to keep himself interested, but at this point in his career, any win that keeps him in the yusho race and on the dohyo will do. Hakuho was given a real mawashi battle by Okinoumi in the previous match, and he’d do well to start to stay away from his opponents’ strengths from now on. Myogiryu is a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none type, but his calling card is often – like his stablemate Goeido – his speedy attack from the tachiai. Don’t be surprised to see Hakuho deploy another harite off the mark here to blunt and divert that attack.

Kyushu Basho Day 1 Preview

Josh K Abi (阿炎), Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishomaru, Endo (遠藤), Enho, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kotoeko, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kotoyuki, Kyushu Basho 2019, Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimanoumi, Shohozan, Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terutsuyoshi, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tomokaze, Tsurugisho, Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲)

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Welcome, sumo fans! The final basho of 2019 is upon us. Cooler temperatures may have already come to Japan, but the action on the dohyo is set to be intense, with many intriguing storylines set to be resolved over the next couple of weeks. I will be joining the action at the Kokusai Center later in the basho, and hopefully will find some more intriguing details to share.

Set the controls for the heart of Hakata, because the Day 1 torikumi has been posted!

What We Are Watching on Day 1

Daishomaru vs Wakatakakage – Arashio’s relatively new heyagashira makes his makuuchi bow against the returning Kansai meatball Daishomaru. These fellas have met in the four preceding basho with honours even. Wakatakakage tends to be a slow starter, so it would be nice to see him set the jitters aside and get an early trip to the interview room. Certainly his soon to be incoming oyakata Sokokurai will want to see that as well.

Terutsuyoshi vs Nishikigi – Nishikigi returns to his spiritual home of Maegashira 14 where he meets a Terutsuyoshi who had a rough basho last time out, and will be looking to replicate the success he found four months ago. Terutsuyoshi wants to establish a pushing attack from down low here, as any devolution into a grappling battle will favour the larger man.

Takanosho vs Chiyotairyu – It’s a little bonkers to see these two drawn against each other, what with Takanosho having spent most of his recent days in Juryo and Chiyotairyu having been a regular fixture in the joi. Chiyotairyu needs to rediscover his cannonball tachiai if he is to have a chance of rebounding up the ranks, so this match should tell us a bit about his genki level.

Shimanoumi vs Yutakayama – This will be an interesting basho for Shimanoumi, as we get to see how he rebounds from his first real setback to his top division career. Yutakayama looks to continue his renaissance, and probably possesses the more powerful thrusting attack here when he is on song. Shimanoumi won their only ever meeting, earlier this year in Osaka.

Kotoshōgiku vs Sadanoumi – Sadanoumi has done a decent job of stabilising himself as a mid-table rank and filer, and faces an opponent who should draw loud cheers on his homecoming. Kotoshogiku hasn’t been ranked as low as M9 for a year, when he reeled off double digit wins in front of his adoring home fans. We all know the score here: if he sets the hug-and-chug then it’s game over. But can he? Narrative fans rejoice: The former Ozeki leads the career series 5-2 and a win here would take him closer notching his 800th career win in his shusshin later in the week.

Shohozan vs Kotoeko – Another homecoming, and another veteran who performed very well in front of his hometown supporters a year ago. Shohozan also sits within touching distance of a 500th career win that we can expect him to achieve this basho. He’s developed in to a much more able grappler which adds intrigue to a match against an opponent who is very able on the mawashi but perhaps possesses less street smarts than Shohozan. The 35 year old is 2-0 against Kotoeko and I’m tipping him to win again here.

Tsurugisho vs Enho – Much has been made of Enho fighting now at by far his highest rank and the new, higher level opponents he will encounter. First things first, however, as he meets a known rival. Tsurugisho is also now fighting as his highest rank and has taken all four previous encounters from the Ishikawa fire pixie. As ever, Enho’s mobility will be the key to a victory, and Tsurugisho will be attempting to lock his movement out of the gate in order to usher the tricky customer towards another shiroboshi.

Onosho vs Ryuden – A lot of what we can expect to see here depends on the health of Onosho, whose career has been blunted by injury but who slowly seems to be getting himself back on track. Ryuden has faced some brutal trips into the joi. At Maegashira 5 he will no doubt be called upon to face high level opponents later in the tournament when the kyujo announcements begin to roll in, but he has a good opportunity to pick up key early wins in the meantime. Onosho’s pushing attack has proven too much for him in the past however, and the popular tadpole owns a 3-0 record over Ryuden.

Aoiyama vs Kotoyuki – This is a bit of an undercard play, but it’s probably the best shot we have at a good old fashioned bloodbath on Day 1. Ever the pugilist, Big Dan takes on an entertaining opponent in Kotoyuki who has been in inspired form for the past several months. Both men somewhat improbably are past sekiwake. While conventional wisdom would dictate that the gunbai will fall in favour of the man who can establish a pushing attack, look for Aoiyama to hit the slap down against an opponent who is notoriously wild on his feet: several of the Bulgarian’s seven wins against Kotoyuki have come via this strategy.

Tamawashi vs Tomokaze – Tamawashi has spent half the year as a sekiwake, but apart from his stunning yusho ten months ago, looks to be settling into a spoiler role in the joi late in his career. Tomokaze has a good early chance to respond to his first ever make-koshi, and we could learn much about his genki level from this match. He was clearly haunted by the loss of senpai Yoshikaze and struggling for form at the Aki tournament, but up against a high octane pusher-thruster, we should get an opportunity to see which tools the ivory tinkler has been able to sharpen over the intervening months.

Abi vs Takarafuji – Fresh from a much ballyhooed apology over the his recent bondage scandal, Abi looks to play the dominator as the Shikoroyama man has established consistency at the Komusubi rank and targets a yusho. Takarafuji, unfortunately, will likely play the role of the submissive in this encounter: Abi’s whole attack is the full throated thrusting that has become his signature, whereas there are few rikishi in the top division that have been able to make as much of a career of stalemating, defensive sumo as Takarafuji. Abi leads the career series 4-3, and would probably be the favourite if not affected by recent events.

Meisei vs Tochinoshin – The Georgian will attempt for the second time this year to regain his Ozeki status, and also for the second time in history to do it twice. The Ozekiwake starts his 10 win campaign against Meisei, who returns to the joi following a successful September meet which saw him spending much of the basho in the yusho race. This should be a mawashi battle and we should learn much about the state of Tochinoshin’s health in what should be a tenacious fight. Meisei has won their only prior meeting, but the smart money is probably on the veteran.

Mitakeumi vs Myogiryu – Not enough words have probably been said about how impressive Myogiryu’s return from kyujo was last tournament to snatch an unlikely kachikoshi. OK, now we’ve said that, we can focus on one of the huge stories of this tournament, current yusho holder Mitakeumi’s latest Ozeki challenge. With all of the high rankers starting the basho, Mitakeumi has to win probably half of the matches against those ranked above him and be flawless against those ranked below him. Both of these men are known for quick powerful manoeuvres from the tachiai, and while their lifetime rivalry is locked at 3 apiece, I have a hard time believing that the Mitakeumi’s Ozeki challenge will come undone on Day 1, so I’m going to tip him here.

Takakeisho vs Okinoumi – Day 1 throws up a number of rematches of critical bouts from Aki, and in this match, veteran Okinoumi gets a chance at revenge for his elimination in last tournament’s final day of action. Again, we will learn much about Takakeisho’s health and chances of success in this tournament here. Okinoumi typically should not be a match for his overwhelming oshi attack, but should the Shimane man get a chance to land a grip, then it is likely the Ozeki may not have the power owing to his recent injury to keep the veteran away. That said, I’m tipping Takakeisho to continue his good form, as he should be able to win this on ability.

Daieisho vs Takayasu – I almost ran out of superlatives for Daieisho in the last basho, as he notched a kinboshi and came from well down to win four in a row and score a kachi-koshi which leads to his highest ever placement on the banzuke here, at Maegashira 1. No matter the opponent or the odds, he simply did not stop doing his style of explosive oshi-zumo. And in this match, I am going to tip him to upset kadoban Ozeki Takayasu. It is clear that Takayasu is not in full health, with his brutally damaged elbow having not fully healed, and I don’t know that even someone as good as him, short of form and fitness, can blunt the thrusting attack of an awkward customer like Daieisho.

Goeido vs Endo – Another critical match from Aki replayed, as Endo scored a big time upset of the Ozeki which helped dismantle early hopes that Goeido could be a yusho challenger last time out. Endo went on to score his first ever sanyaku kachikoshi. Goeido will likely be looking for a manner of revenge here. Endo has won the last 3 and 7 out of the last 9 of their matchups, and with both men being very able technicians, Goeido is going to have call on his hallmark speed from the tachiai in order to overcome the popular pin-up.

Hokutofuji vs Hakuho – The last time Hakuho was seen on the dohyo, he was walking off clutching a broken finger having been upset by a thoroughly fired up Hokutofuji on Day 1 of the Aki basho. If there’s one thing you can say about Hakuho, the legend has a knack for a narrative. And while he’s more GOAT than Elephant, he certainly never forgets. With that in mind, a chance to settle a score and put things right straight from the off against the man ranked Komusubi 2 is probably exactly what Hakuho is looking for. And it will be most exciting to see what kind of technique the Yokozuna chooses from his library to blunt Hokotofuji’s amped up pushing and thrusting attack. I’m tipping the Yokozuna here to win a gripping match.

Kakuryu vs Asanoyama – Growing superstar Asanoyama gets his sanyaku debut in this tournament, having scored his first yusho earlier in the year and his first kinboshi in the previous tournament against Day 1’s opponent. It’s yet another rematch of a key Aki battle, Asanoyama having dealt the Yokozuna his first of the consecutive losses which knocked him out of the tournament. This match in the musubi-no-ichiban is their third meeting. Asanoyama is one of few yotsu-specialists among the current crop of new stars, and the Yokozuna may be best served avoiding strength against strength if he can manage a pushing attack. Kakuryu is always susceptible to move backwards, however, and with questions over his health, this may be one of the more likely upsets we could see on Day 1.

Aki Day 15: Senshuraku Preview

Josh K Abi (阿炎), Aki Basho 2019, Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Chiyoshoma, Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Enho, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kotoeko, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kotoyuki, Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimanoumi, Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takagenji, Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takarafuji (宝富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terutsuyoshi, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Tomokaze, Tsurugisho, Yutakayama, Ōnoshō (阿武咲) ,

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Welcome to the final day of this year’s Aki basho, the Autumn Grand Sumo tournament.

I will be returning to Kokugikan for the final day’s matches, and will look forward to sharing my thoughts on the experience on these pages and upcoming podcast(s). Thanks to everyone for joining us for this wild and unpredictable tournament.

We enter the final day with no fewer than three rikishi still very much in contention for the Emperor’s Cup (and the macaron, and that enormous trophy that the USA created, and beer and gasoline and lots of other prizes besides).

Aki Leaderboard

Leaders: Mitakeumi, Takakeisho, Okinoumi

What We Are Watching Day 15

Takagenji vs Chiyoshoma – Neither of these guys have looked fit for their rank over the past two weeks and will probably be grateful to see the back of this tournament. Both men are makekoshi, and in the case of Takagenji, heavily so. Takagenji needs a win only to cushion his fall into Juryo. There’s not a lot in this.

Kagayaki vs Azumaryu – Another makekoshi pair, Azumaryu probably needs a win here to confirm his spot in the division next time out. Neither showed much to dream on in this basho. This is their first meeting for three years, with the head to head rivalry being even at three apiece.

Shohozan vs Yutakayama – I think Yutakayama has performed much the better of these two over the tournament, in spite of their equal 9-5 records. Both can be happy with that return, though I think Shohozan has just about scratched out some of his wins to get there. This will be an oshi-zumo match, and I think Yutakayama’s pushing attack is the more dominant of the two at the moment, despite his flaws. I’ll tip him to upset the form guide and get his first win over the veteran at the third time of asking.

Onosho vs Tsurugisho – Tsurugisho really deserves our applause after keeping himself in the yusho race until Day 14. Onosho has really grown into the tournament and while he looks some way short of the strength he has displayed in the past, it looks clear that his fiery red mawashi has brought some of his sumo back. I don’t think Tsurugisho was expecting to be in the yusho race but it will be interesting to see how his elimination will affect him. Onosho has won 5 from 8, has the stronger thrusting attack, and I think he’ll finish strongly and win this.

Sadanoumi vs Enho – Enho will be relieved to get his kachi-koshi after a thoroughly entertaining tournament in which he has fully captured the imagination of the public. Sadanoumi’s mobility is still a bit hobbled and I can see Enho targeting the much taller man’s bad leg for a possible leg pick or tripping move. Losing this match wouldn’t be the worst thing for Enho as a succession of 8-7s is probably best for him to acclimate to the higher levels of competition anyway. But I think he’ll win it and finish strongly.

Terutsuyoshi vs Nishikigi – The manner of Terutsuyoshi’s defeat on Day 14 was actually more worrying for me than any of his prior defeats, in so much as he had the match won several times over and couldn’t actually finish it. Unfortunately for him, Nishikigi, while make-koshi, brings a lot more to the party than Takagenji. If Terutsuyoshi is unable to commit any power moving forward with his thrusting attack, Nishikigi should simply be able to wrap him up and contain him.

Kotoshogiku vs Tochiozan – It’s the 40th meeting of these two beloved veterans, and it brings a chance for the former ozeki to level the scores at 20 apiece. That shows just how even this matchup has been. I don’t think the Kyushu Bulldozer has been as bad as his 5-9 record suggests, but he has faltered in the second week and will be happy to welcome the next tournament on home soil. Tochiozan probably needs a win here to keep himself in the division – although as lksumo has noted there aren’t too many folks from Juryo banging down the door. I think this match all comes down to whether Kotoshogiku can set the “hug and chug” and execute his gaburi-yori. Look for Tochiozan to accept the grip but then attempt a throw to toss him aside.

Shimanoumi vs Daishoho –

I stand amid the roar
Of a surf-tormented shore,
And I hold within my hand
Grains of the golden sand —
How few! yet how they creep
Through my fingers to the deep,
While I weep — while I weep!
O God! Can I not grasp
Them with a tighter clasp?
O God! can I not save
One from the pitiless wave?

Daishoho leads the lifetime series.

Kotoyuki vs Shodai – Sometimes it’s easy to forget that Kotoyuki – yes that Kotoyuki, the one who rolls around and goes flying off the dohyo and into people’s bento boxes in the fifth row of the masu seats – is a former sekiwake. He’s gone a long way to making us remember in the last couple of tournaments. His pushing and thrusting attack has largely been good this basho, and he’s coming up against an opponent who will probably let him execute it given Shodai’s lack of tachiai. Shodai may have found some kind of inspiration with his much needed Day 14 win, but I’d imagine Kotoyuki will be gunning hard to finish strong and find his way as far up the banzuke as he can.

Tamawashi vs Ishiura – Finally, ten matches into the day’s events we find our first “Darwin” matchup of a pair of 7-7 rikishi. Tamawashi is probably in slightly the better form although he did get manhandled on Day 14 by a resurgent Hokutofuji. This is where the banzuke will probably tell the story as Ishiura has been in and around the top division for quite a while now, but these two have never met as they’ve largely stayed at opposite ends. Assuming the Angel of Henka doesn’t try anything wacky, he’ll look to get in very low at the tachiai and get a frontal grip on Tamawashi’s mawashi. The Mongolian will just look to pummel him out, though whether and how exactly he raises up the much smaller man with his trademark nodowa is going to be an interesting tactical question. Advantage is very much with the decorated veteran, though I wouldn’t rule out a shock totally.

Chiyotairyu vs Tomokaze – This is another match where mental strength will be as important as anything technical, as we get to see how Tomokaze reacts to his first ever make-koshi. Tomokaze fought with more heart that we have seen from him most of the basho on Day 14, but it was too little too late when coming up against a highly skilled opponent who was in the middle of a yusho challenge. Chiyotairyu has been more or less buried, and Tomokaze should seize the opportunity to minimise his demotion and keep himself among the high level competitors next time out – that is what will continue to improve him.

Daieisho vs Kotoeko – Our second and final “Darwin” match sees this pair go head to head. I’m running out of superlatives for Daieisho, and the way he has continued his remarkable comeback to .500 by executing his strong pushing and thrusting attack really deserves credit. If there’s any justice, he will get it here. Kotoeko has faced poorer opposition over the course of the tournament to end up in the same place, and if Daieisho can come out of the blocks strong and keep his centre of gravity low while aiming his thrusts upward to raise his opponent, he’s got a good chance of completing a magnificent comeback.

Meisei vs Asanoyama – I think this might be a challenge too far for Meisei, who has stumbled badly in the second week after an incredible start to the basho that saw him atop the leaderboard at points. Asanoyama will not win this tournament, but has again raised his stature with double digit wins in the joi, regardless of the volume of opposition. I don’t think this tournament will end up factoring into an ozeki run, but it will be curious if an 11th win here changes the calculus for the banzuke committee as has happened before. Meisei will do best to utilise a pushing and thrusting attack – of which he is very capable, but if Asanoyama gets on the mawashi then the gunbai will fall to him.

Ryuden vs Aoiyama – After losing his first six, Aoiyama’s done well to at least stabilise himself and minimise his fall down the banzuke in the next tournament. Ryuden was moving along at a decent clip until getting drawn in to face much higher level opposition in the last three days. Both are make-koshi, and having seen what the last few days have taken out of Ryuden, and with him facing an opponent who won’t be entertaining a mawashi battle, I have to slightly favour Big Dan. Aoiyama should not be throwing henkas especially in matches with nothing to lose, and he will have an opportunity to bust out his pushing attack in this match.

Hokutofuji vs Takarafuji – It’s a Fuji battle, which has gone 3 times from 5 prior meetings to the man from Aomori. Nonetheless, Hokutofuji has stormed back with seven consecutive wins and his opponent has faded in the last couple of days in which he has shown weakness against a strong pushing attack (Abi). So I’m going to tip Hokutofuji to continue his incredible final weekend form and finish strong.

Abi vs Myogiryu – In normal circumstances, Abi would be facing Takakeisho and Myogiryu would probably have had a “Darwin” match against someone nearer his own rank on the final day. So that’s bad luck. Abi had some good fortune in week 1 but has followed it up with some impressive second week performances to grab his kachi-koshi and more besides. There’s nothing (apart from pride and kensho) at stake for him in this match, as he will end up K1E next tournament regardless of results here or elsewhere. Myogiryu has done admirably in adverse circumstances after his return from kyujo and his hope here will be to get inside and get a grip on Abi’s mawashi while his opponent is pummelling away at him. Myogiryu has the throwing ability to use the taller man’s momentum against him, especially given the high centre of gravity which Abi sustains through most matches. Whether he can actually execute that however, is another matter entirely.

Okinoumi vs Takakeisho – The first truly momentous bout of the day. The schedulers broke with precedent and brought up M8 Okinoumi to face Ozekiwake Takakeisho on Senshuraku and hopefully deliver the climax that this basho deserves. These two 11-3 rikishi facing off means that a 12th win is guaranteed to someone, and so all of the 10-4 chasers are thus eliminated. Okinoumi could do worse than reference some of the video of Goeido’s win over Takakeisho earlier in the week. He won’t be able to account for differences in the tachiai, but he can at least look to Goeido’s quick movement to get over the top to land a belt grip. I think Takakeisho will be too fast for him, however. Takakeisho’s pushing and thrusting attack to me has almost looked effortless in the second week, and it’s been astonishing to see how many matches he’s been able to win with three thrusts off the tachiai. Takekeisho is unquestionably the favourite here, though Okinoumi has beaten him once in four previous tries.

Mitakeumi vs Endo – There will be a lot of kensho on this one. Mitakeumi must win in order to force a playoff against the winner of the previous match. 8-6 Endo will be fighting for nothing apart from pride and money. This has been a closer rivalry than it might seem, Mitakeumi having won 5 out of 9. Endo is a hugely underrated technician and Mitakeumi will do well to keep this match away from the belt. While Endo does occasionally engage with and disarm oshi-zumo battles, the laconic pin-up is also prone to a quick blowout loss and so Mitakeumi will want this over with before Endo can find a way to execute a counter-attack.

Tochinoshin vs Goeido – It’s quite possible that this will be the last bout of Tochinoshin’s Ozeki career, and unfortunately it’s a match with little overall meaning. Fortunately, it may not be a down note that ends the basho in the likely event that there is, in fact, a playoff. This is the 28th matchup of these two Ozeki, with Goeido leading 17-10. It’s a match of “what if’s” for both men. Goeido, as the highest placed rikishi in the competition, could – and probably should – have won this basho. Tochinoshin needed some luck in this tournament to get the 8 wins needed to retain his rank, but none of the breaks have fallen his way. The neutral here might be rooting for the Georgian to give both something to cheer as well as some hope that he can make his second Ozekiwake campaign in November at least competitive and interesting.

Aki Day 13 Preview

Josh K Abi (阿炎), Aki Basho 2019, Aoiyama, Asanoyama (朝乃山), Azumaryu, Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Chiyotairyū (千代大龍), Daieisho (大栄翔), Daishoho, Endo (遠藤), Enho, Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ikioi (勢), Ishiura (石浦), Kagayaki (輝), Kotoeko, Kotonowaka, Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Kotoyuki, Meisei, Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Myogiryu (妙義龍), Nishikigi, Okinoumi (隠岐の海), Ryuden (竜電), Sadanoumi (佐田の海), Shimanoumi, Shohozan, Shōdai (正代直也), Takagenji, Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanosho, Takarafuji (宝富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Terutsuyoshi, Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Tomokaze, Tsurugisho, Yutakayama, Yūshō (優勝), Ōnoshō (阿武咲) ,

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This has been a weird basho. Let’s just get that out of the way right now. When watching Day 12 inside the arena, I found myself alternating between shaking my head and cheering enthusiastically. The tournament has swung wildly between some of the most exciting sumo we have seen in ages, and slippy/slappy/pulldown action.

Less than sixty top division bouts remain, and we will see a victor crowned. What sort of victor will it be? Well, three names were culled from the race on Day 12, and the yusho arasoi should get thinner than a 40 year old’s oicho-mage after another day of action.

Day 13 is also a pivotal day as it will crown several lower division yusho winners.

Aki Leaderboard

Leader: Takakeisho
Chasers: Mitakeumi, Okinoumi, Takarafuji, Meisei, Tsurugisho
Don’t Stop Believin’: Goeido, Asanoyama, Yutakayama

Three Yusho Decided Day 13

Let’s start off with a quick sweep of the nether regions, where the wheat will be separated from the… slightly less sellable wheat. Wheat that’s perfectly good for the mill but not the sort of stuff you’d see in a high-end depachika.

Jonokuchi: The very first bout of the day decides the yusho, with former blue chip prospect and Ms1 Murata looking to seal the deal against less-heralded fellow injury returnee Omura.

Jonidan/Sandanme: Both of these divisions has 3 undefeated rikishi, so it’s splitsville with one of the divisions being won outright on the day and the other heading for a playoff over the weekend:

  • In Jonidan, bottom ranked 6-0’ers Aomihama and Sadanohana do battle, while…
  • In Sandanme, top ranked 6-0’ers Tsushida and Sadanohikari lock horns. Both sets of winners will hope that…
  • Sandanme’s Fujinowaka and Jonidan’s Motobayashi lose their match against the other.

Motobayashi is of course no stranger to strange yusho permutations having beaten two of his Naruto-beya stablemates to the Jonokuchi yusho last time out. Tsushida is the only other prior yusho winner – also in Jonokuchi.

Makushita: The highlight bout of the title matches on the day is unquestionably an intriguing battle of two former Makuuchi favourites. Immediate injury returnee Chiyonokuni takes on the most prominent rikishi in the unsalaried tiers: former Ozeki Terunofuji, who continues his long old slog up from Jonidan. They’ve met twice, each winning once. Neither will be promoted to Juryo with a win, but the winner will be much better placed for promotion in November.

In Juryo, the highlight of the day sees leader Ikioi against his nearest chaser Kotonowaka in a match which won’t decide the title, but may go some way to clearing it up.

What (Else) We Are Watching Day 13

Takanosho vs Azumaryu – Back to the top division then, and Takanosho gets called up again in a sneak preview of Fukuoka action, having clinched his kachikoshi from Juryo 2. Azumaryu has a 3-2 edge over his rival and has cooled off a bit in the preceding days.

Yutakayama vs Enho – After being pulled up to the dizzy heights of second half action, burgeoning superstar Enho finds himself near the bottom of the day’s fight card against an opponent who is just barely on the fringes of the title race. Somehow, this is their first ever meeting. It has been said ad nauseum on the commentary this tournament that Enho fights better against much larger opponents, and I tend to agree his chances will be improved here against an opponent who may not be able to cope with his dynamism and movement. While I correctly predicted he might struggle to finish off Takarafuji, I think this match gives him a bit better potential to score his kachikoshi and end the giant Yutakayama’s spirited title challenge.

Onosho vs Nishikigi – I’m glad this is happening now because it has all the hallmarks of one of those horrible Day 15 Darwin matchups. These guys are indeed both .500, but have a couple days to work out their winning record regardless of what happens. It’s a clash of styles, with Onosho’s dynamic pushing attack against Nishikigi’s preference to lock up his opponent’s arms. Onosho’s in good nick right now so I think he’ll win the day – provided he can stay on his feet.

Shohozan vs Meisei – Shohozan’s unlikely dalliance with title contention ended on Day 12, and Meisei’s took a real hit. Both will want to turn things around for different reasons: Shohozan can seal kachikoshi and Meisei still finds himself just one win off the pace and in with a real shout of a special prize. Their meetings have been split one apiece, but I think Meisei is just about in the better shape here, especially if it’s a mawashi battle. Shohozan has still got it but appears to have lost a step, compensating with increased work on the belt. That plays into Meisei’s hands though, so I’m tipping the energetic youngster.

Sadanoumi vs Takagenji – Takagenji is clearly impacted by off-field activity and will hope to be back soon. Sadanoumi has to be unforgiving and punishing, as this is as good an opportunity as any to score one of the two remaining wins he needs this tournament. Sadanoumi leads the rivalry 2-0, and I’m backing him to make it 3.

Tochiozan vs Kotoyuki – Speaking of losing a step, Tochiozan has looked a bit blasé in this tournament, which isn’t a very good recipe for a match against the pushing attack of Kotoyuki. What he does still have however is ring sense, something that is very much his opponent’s achilles heel. Kotoyuki has lost at least two matches in this tournament from winning positions, and can’t afford to do that again here. I think Kotoyuki will win the tachiai with his trademark thrusting attack, but whether he’s able to actually put the veteran away is another matter.

Terutsuyoshi vs Ishiura – Terutsuyoshi must have summoned the henka genie with his olé move on Day 12, as the genie has arrived to battle him on Day 13! Ishiura has faded badly in terms of results since his hot start and at 6-6 needs to find the wins needed for this tournament to be a success. For makekoshi Terutsuyoshi, it’s all about damage limitation to make sure a bad situation doesn’t get worse. Ishiura tends to henka in desperate situations… surely he won’t here, right? These guys will see plenty of each other in keiko sessions given the close relationship of their heya, so I think we’ll see some straightforward little man sumo, and it could be a bit feisty.

Tsurugisho vs Takarafuji – These guys both improbably find themselves one off the pace heading into the final weekend. What a story! Tsurugisho has exceeded all expectations in his top flight debut. Takarafuji, meanwhile, did very well to stick to his incredibly disciplined style of sumo to take Enho out of the equation on Day 12. This is a first time matchup. Tsurugisho would do well to start with a pushing attack because he doesn’t want a mawashi battle against a more experienced yotsu practitioner who will have designs on simply wearing down the opponent until he can sniff out and exploit a weakness. While a win for the rookie would add to the chaos that has been this Aki basho, I’m going to tip Takarafuji to stay right in the yusho race with a win here.

Okinoumi vs Kagayaki – Okinoumi upended his cold spell and the yusho race by knocking Meisei off the top of the leaderboard in some style on Day 12, and keeping himself in unlikely contention. Kagayaki is 5-7 and will be desperate to avoid makekoshi, but Okinoumi really shouldn’t lose this. While Kagayaki is very good when it comes to his ring sense and overall control, I don’t think he’s better than a healthy, in-form Okinoumi at oshi or yotsu-zumo, including the execution of throws. I’m going to tip the veteran to grab his 10th win.

Daishoho vs Kotoeko – Daishoho is makekoshi and faces a 5-7 rikishi hoping not to suffer the same fate. As evidenced by his win over Tochiozan on Day 12, Daishoho does seem like a rikishi who performs better when the pressure is off. This will be a belt match, with both rikishi preferring the mawashi. The previous 12 meetings have been split evenly. This is kind of a boring one so the boring analysis is: the winner will get a better grip from the tachiai and win by trying to move forward. Prove me wrong, guys. Woof.

Daieisho vs Chiyotairyu – I know I have been singing Daieisho’s praises to the heavens in this tournament, but this guy has just had a really good basho for a 5-7 rikishi. He is establishing his style of sumo all the time, and he backed that up by how he dealt with Asanoyama. Chiyotairyu on the other hand has been neither been able to establish his style of sumo from the tachiai nor recover in order to get his pushing and thrusting attack going. If he were a little more genki this might be the closest we’d get to a good old fashioned street fight in this tournament, but Daieisho might see the light at the end of the tunnel here and keep the chains moving in his quest for an unlikely winning record.

Tamawashi vs Asanoyama – Tamawashi has ended the title challenges of Abi and Endo in consecutive days and the arm-breaking cavity merchant will look to make it a hat trick by finishing off Asanoyama’s slim hopes at a second yusho. As with yesterday, Asanoyama does not handle Tamawashi’s style of sumo particularly well as evidenced by the goose egg he’s sporting from three prior meetings. That all being said, I’m going to break with the prediction I made yesterday and tip him to upset the form guide in this one, as Tamawashi can be a little vulnerable to being escorted out by an opponent who’s able to land a quick belt grip. And that might just keep things interesting into the weekend.

Shodai vs Aoiyama – As Bruce related, Shodai is better than his 2-10 record. With both of these guys in such poor form (five wins between them from 24 matches in this tournament), it’s the kind of match you mark down as “toilet break” or “refill the drink.” Make it fast though, because this should be over quickly. If Aoiyama gets the V-Twin firing and can move Shodai back from the tachiai, he should win this. And if he doesn’t, Shodai will grab the mawashi and get his third win.

Hokutofuji vs Tomokaze – Rescuing us from that dreariness is another first time matchup, and a thoroughly intriguing one at that. Tomokaze is 6-6 and needs to find two wins from three to keep his amazing kachikoshi streak alive, after he started pulling again for some reason yesterday. Hokutofuji is in his now typical strong finish, fighting back with five straight wins and some fantastic oshi-zumo this week. Here’s a stat for you: Hokutofuji is 16-5 over the final weekend (Friday-Sunday) of his past seven tournaments. That’s some indication of his perseverance. He will open up with his typical pushing-thrusting attack here, and Tomokaze in current form is probably going to look for a pull. That isn’t quite as awful as it sounds in this case, as Hokutofuji can be very prone to the hatakikomi/slippiotoshi. Hokutofuji is the favourite, but only just.

Kotoshogiku vs Endo – Kotoshogiku is on the brink, but managed to keep himself afloat with his comfortable win over Tomokaze on Day 12. Endo started strong but has fizzled in the second week. These matches have been split pretty evenly since Kotoshogiku’s Ozeki demotion and I think this hangs on Endo’s focus as much as anything. After all, we know what Kotoshogiku is going to give in every match.

Abi vs Shimanoumi – These guys lock horns for the second time, Abi having won the first earlier this year. Shimanoumi has a decent oshi-attack, but I don’t think it’s on the level of Abi’s tsuppari. Shimanoumi is already make-koshi and while he will be still looking to finish strong, Abi has a chance to lock in his san’yaku position for another tournament and I expect him not to have to wait until Day 15 to do it this time.

Mitakeumi vs Myogiryu – Myogiryu came back from injury strong on Day 11, but then just flat out collapsed against Takakeisho on Day 12. Mitakeumi, meanwhile, rebounded from his own collapse with a thunderous win in a very tense, high stakes, matta-strewn affair against Tochinoshin. These two are actually fairly similar in terms of their ability, Mitakeumi simply operating on a higher level, perhaps apart from when it comes to throws. But I don’t think this match is going to get that far. Mitakeumi is the person that needs to keep the title race relevant into the final days, and he needs to establish a strong oshi attack. I don’t think Myogiryu defends particularly well against high level opposition so if Mitakeumi takes the initiative, he should win.

Tochinoshin vs Ryuden – Ryuden has been all over the shop lately, and we got to see a lot of him against Goeido in a match that was run multiple times due to various matta. For Tochinoshin’s part, he simply needs to win every match to avoid demotion. Their head to head record is 1-1, Ryuden winning most recently in Nagoya. Ryuden is in some ways a good opponent for the Georgian, in that he will allow Tochinoshin to get the belt. But he is also in some ways the absolute worst opponent, because very few rikishi manage to defend at the edge after giving up a belt grip like Ryuden. That effort, and his ability to turn losses into wins at the tawara, has won many fans. There’s nothing worse than seeing your heroes die a slow death and I think Tochinoshin will probably draw the pain out further by just about winning this.

Takakeisho vs Goeido – This is an enormous match to end the day, and for both men. The subtext is perhaps the most interesting. Goeido is safe from demotion, but this is a yusho he should have contended for, and a loss here will officially knock him out of the running. A Takakeisho win may be a symbolic changing of the guard and a big moment in the transition to the new generation of stars. Goeido leads the rivalry 7-3, and has beaten Takakeisho fairly consistently over time. As an all-rounder with a blistering attack, he is one of few rikishi with the tools to overwhelm the perplexing youngster. Goeido is certainly prone to the type of slap down technique that Takakeisho has mastered, but I think the youngster may find it harder to win just with oshi-zumo than against other opponents. I’m going to go out on a limb and tip the veteran Ozeki for the win here.