Arawashi

Handicapping The Haru Banzuke – Part 2

Bruce H Banzuke (番付), Endo (遠藤), Harubasho 2017 (Osaka), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Takarafuji (宝富士), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yoshikaze (嘉風), Ōzeki (大関) , , , , , , , ,

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The Meat Grinder & Cannon Fodder

In the first of our series speculating on the Haru banzuke, we took at look at the San’yaku ranks, which face fierce competition for the competitive ranks, and significant injury and problems in the “permanent” ranks.

Today we look at the rikishi who have hard work to earn their pay, the upper half of Maegashira ranks.  As with the first group, this is all purely speculative, and based on some formula concocted by myself in an attempt to guess where the Nippo Sumo Kyokai will rank the men for the March tournament in Osaka.

Plugging everyone’s win/loss record, the difficulty of their foes, a scoring factor for their rank (harder to move up the higher you were in the banzuke) and a few other magic elements, we get this prospective ranking:

East Rank West
Ikioi Maegashira 1 Takekaze
Takarafuji Maegashira 2 Sokokurai
Tochinoshin Maegashira 3 Shohozan
Arawashi Maegashira 4 Takanoiwa
Yoshikaze Maegashira 5 Endo
Ichinojo Maegashira 6 Chiyonokuni
Hokutofuji Maegashira 7 Aoiyama

Ikioi is an amazingly popular rikishi with the public, and his posting to Maegashira 1e for the Osaka basho will only ramp public interest higher, above and beyond the current Kisenosato mania sweeping Japan.  Ikioi’s sumo has been improving steadily, and the NSK probably assume it’s time to give him a test for a San’yaku slot in the near future. Interestingly enough, the sumotori with the highest “mathematical” rank is Sokokurai! Sokokurai had 11 wins, his “rank velocity” (win vs loss * rank factor * schedule difficulty) was an astounding 9.9, higher than anyone and well ahead of second highest Ichinojo. But I think the Maegashira 1 ranks are prized positions, and the Nippon Sumo Kyokai will likely put Ikioi’s impact on the popularity of sumo foremost. Takekaze moves up from Maegashira 5 to a Maegashira 1 spot at Haru, and we will see if the veteran can fend off the up-and-coming crowd.

Takarafuji benefits from the chaos and blood bath at the upper end of Makuuchi in January, landing solidly at Maegashira 2e, and a chance to rack up kinboshi against a wounded Yokozuna crew.  Joining him is Sokokurai at Maegashira 2w, the rikishi who computed out to the highest “rank velocity” of anyone coming out of Hatsu. If he continues his strong streak from Hatsu, he will present a really good opponent to many top rikishi.

Tochinoshin drops 3 slots from Komusubi to Maegashira 3, he had a terrible record before his injuries forced him to withdraw. To be honest, it will be interesting to see if he is even healed up enough to compete, but as always Tachiai wishes the big Georgain the best of fortune. Joining him at Maegashira 3w is Yokozuna Kisenosato‘s dew-sweeper, Shohozan.

Takanoiwa,  who has been really blowing the doors off of his competition, raises from Maegashira 10 to Maegashira 4. I put him on the west side, which draws a slightly easier schedule.  However, if there is a lack of fierce Ozeki class competition, we may once again see score inflation among the up-and-coming rikishi, and I would look for Takanoiwa to excel. Joining him is Arawashi falling from Maegashira 2 in January.

Yoshikaze (a favorite of mine) seems to have been ranked in a very comfortable spot, as the computation put him at the same rank, but moved him from West to East. Joining him at Maegashira 5 is fan favorite Endo, whose make-koshi in January pushed him down from M2.

Another of the levitating next-gen rikishi, Ichinojo, leaps to Maegashira 6 from his prior spot at Maegashira 13.  Frankly, I am not sure if he is ready for this intensity of competition, but we will see in March how he fares. His computed “rank velocity” was an impressive 7.7, which was more than Takanoiwa.  Joining him is Chiyonokuni, who turned in a solid performance in January at Maegashira 8.

Rounding out the upper portion of the Maegashira ranks, we the rather impressive Hokutofuji at Maegashira 7e, with man-mountain Aoiyama broadly occupying the Maegashira 7w position.  This is one of the cases where even though Aoiyama was able to turn in a winning record (8-7), there was a huge cohort with strong winning records, with victories over higher ranked rikishi, and they ended up passing him by.

Keep in mind – this exercise is for discussion purposes for the most part. So feel free to leave comments, and alternate opinions. I am hoping to tune my formulas over time, and this first attempt should not be taken too seriously.

Tune in Friday for part 3!

Hatsu Day 12 Preview

Bruce H Hatsubasho 2017, Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Takayasu (高安) , , , , ,

mitakeumi-day-11

Waiting For Kotoshogiku

Yesterday’s withdrawl of Yokozuna Kakuryu was a disappointment, but not unexpected due to his poor performance. As a result, Kotoshogiku survived for another, and was awarded a fusen (default) win over the Yokozuna. I take no joy in his imminent demotion, but given how crowded Komosumbi and Sekiwake will be in Osaka, it’s probably time to clean up the upper San’yaku ranks.

Meanwhile the basho is wide open still, if Kisenosato loses at least once prior to day 15, as many expect given his past performance anxiety, you could have any of the Maegashira with 2 losses pick up a stunning Yusho win, or better still a mass multi-way final day mini tournament. But we still have 3 days to go before we see what day 15 will bring

Notable Matches

Hokutofuji vs Ichinojo – Battle of the lower Maegashira, it seems the schedulers are testing Ichinojo now against the higher ranked and hugely successful Hokutofuji. This match has lots of potential. Ichinojo won their only prior bout.

Chiyoshoma vs Sokokurai – Chiyoshoma has a slight losing record (5-6) but has been fighting well. Meanwhile Sokokurai is in the group tied for second behind Kisenosato. Chiyoshoma can play spoiler and even up at 6-6 with a good effort. Their two prior bouts were split, so it’s anyone’s guess.

Takayasu vs Arawashi – Arawashi has crumpled some upper ranked rikishi this tournament, now Takayasu faces him, and his lightning speed. Takayasu may need to come in with a flexible plan for this match, as Arawashi may surprise from the tachiai. Takayasu has lost to him twice before, and only won once in their prior 3 matches.

Kisenosato vs Ikioi – Fans are dreading the expected Kisenosato loss, and Ikioi is more than capable of handing it to him. As long as Ikioi can keep the dump truck from locking up the mawashi, he stands a chance. Ikioi has never defeated Kisenosato, who commands a 13-0 record against Ikioi

Tamawashi vs Kotoshogiku – It falls to Tamawashi to try to deliver the kimarate that ends Kotoshogiku’s Ozeki rank. I feel bad for both of them. In thier 8 prior bouts, Tamawashi has won twice

Hatsu Basho Day 10 Summary

Bruce H Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Hatsubasho 2017, Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Osunaarashi (大砂嵐) , , , , , , , ,

chiyoo

Osunaarashi faced off against the Sadanoumi in the first Makuuchi bout of day 10. This was a long and difficult match, and clearly Osunaarashi is fighting with a lot of pain from his chronic injuries. Sadanoumi is looking good now, and I really hope he can keep this level of sumo and begin again to improve. Osunaarashi now one loss from make-koshi and certain return to Juryo.

Chiyoo showed some very nice work against the massive Aoiyama, who continues to struggle with anything other than a straight pushing attack. Arawashi’s bout against Shohozan was a thing of beauty, with Arawashi employing a great arm bar throw (tottari). Arawashi seems to have found his strength and his sumo, and is now fighting with vigor and purpose.

In a battle of the up and comings, Mitakeumi beat Shodai, though both rikishi put forth some solid effort. The battle was fast paced and highly mobile. Whatever Mitakeumi did to prepare for Hatsu, it was the right formula – more of that.

The Kisenosato bout showed that in spite of his injuries, Terunofuji is not giving one inch to anyone. He went into the match with a loose mawashi, and it was effective, making Kisenosato work to gain control of the big Mongolian Terunofuji. But Kisenosato got inside, got low – he was not going to make the same mistake he made against Kotoshogiku. Kisenosato lowered his hips and applied force, and won. He remains the sole leader

Goeido showed great skill and ring sense in defeating the struggling Kotoshogiku. He pressed Kotoshogiku back to the bales, and as Kotoshogiku began to ramp up a thrusting counter attack, Goeido used that force to propel Kotoshogiku into the throw as he stepped aside. Nice sumo from the Aki champion. Kimarite was katasukashi – under-shoulder swing down

Now I wonder if Hakuho has re-injured his legs or feet. In the past three days his sumo has been defensive rather than mostly offense, which is his style. He handled Ikioi with a bit of difficulty, which says that Ikioi is doing better, and Hakuho doing a bit worse. Sumo shines when Hakuho is healthy and winning. So I hope he is physically ok.

Hatsu Leader Board

Leader – Kisenosato
Hunt Group – Hakuho, Takanoiwa, Sokokurai, Ichinojo
Chasers – Goeido, Takayasu, Mitakeumi, Ikioi, Takekaze, Hokutofuji

5 Matches Remain

Day 10 Preview

Bruce H Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Hatsubasho 2017, Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Osunaarashi (大砂嵐), San'yaku (三役), Sekiwake (関脇), Takayasu (高安) , , , , , ,

ikioi-kakuryu-9

Where we hope it won’t get any weirder.

Bizzaro-world day 9 is in the history books, with a tremendous impact for the yusho race at Hatsu. With day 10, we close out the middle act of the basho, and prepare to launch headlong into the final 5 days, where dreams get crushed and champions are made.

Clearly Hakuho is off his game now. I don’t think it’s injury or physical, I think it started with Arawashi. Clearly whatever happened at the tachiai took a direction that the Yokozuna did not expect, and moved to counter. But before he could do anything, Arawashi had him out. As stated prior, Hakuho is about 80% offense 20% defense, and he almost always starts with a strong battle plan. That is why when Takayasu stood him up with a big tachiai on day 10, he was in trouble. Honestly I don’t recall seeing Takayasu move with that kind of speed ever before. Takayasu gave quick shoulder blast at the tachiai, and then he had a hand inside pushing against Hakuho’s chest. This time The Boss was quick to implement his defensive plan, but his much vaunted ring sense failed him as he stepped out. I would look for him to get back in his sumo today, as he has Ikioi.

On the subject of Kotoshogiku, if he wins over Goeido I am going to suspect some coordinated effort to rescue the injured Ozeki. Frankly one of the great appeals of sumo is the appearance of meritocracy. I am sure Kotoshogiku is a lovely human being, but the time has come for someone to show his kadoban ass the door. He is perpetually injured, which is a crying shame as he has had brought some great sumo to the sport.

One the subject of Ozeki who should be moving forward, Kisenosato has a lot to make up for after his disappointing loss to Kotoshogiku. Kise – you had one job to do, and you had most of this handed to you on a plate by Harumafuji and Hakuho. Some corners of the sumo world jokingly call him “Choke-o-zuna”, which I thought was cruel. But today I think it might be accurate. Day 10 he faces Terunofuji, who is also a great sumotori who has chronic injuries and has little left until he is healed.

Kakuryu is back to stinking after a really excellent Kyushu. As of today he is in serious risk of going make-koshi, which would rain down doom from the Japan Sumo Association on the most recent Yokozuna. On day 10 he faces Tamawashi, who is seriously looking like he might survive as Sekiwake.

Notable Matches

Sadanoumi vs Ichinojo – Ichinojo can go kachi-koshi with a win here. He is tied for second place! SECOND PLACE! Ichinojo leads the series 4-2.

Takanoiwa vs Chiyotairyu – Co-Leader Takanoiwa takes on a struggling Chiyotairyu. Maybe day 11 the can put him against Hakuho? Chiyotairyu leads the series 3-1, so maybe Takanoiwa will be knocked back from his co-leader status.

Osunaarashi vs Sokokurai – Also tied for second place, Sokokurai draws an easy match against the Egyptian, who is really too hurt to be on the dohyo. Osunaarashi has won all 4 of their prior bouts.

Takekaze vs Hokutofuji – Henka master Takekaze takes on Hokutofuji, who is also tied for second place. I love me some Hokutofuji, but this is crazy. This will be the first time these two have faced off

Mitakeumi vs Shodai – A magical battle of the up-and-coming. With Shodai largely 1 step behind Mitakeumi on the learning curve, we shall see if Shodai is firming up and getting over his san’yaku jitters. Shodai has won 4 of their prior 5 matches.