Sumo World Reforms Announced

The pandemic presented the sumo world with tremendous challenges, notably maintaining wrestler’s health and fitness, and their mental health, within an enterprise with deteriorating financial health. The world has reopened but the impacts have yet to shake their way out of the system. A day after announcing that a total of nineteen rikishi had retired during (and after) Aki Basho, we have heard news that the Kyokai decided to eliminate the height and weight restrictions on new recruits. It is hoped this will allow more wrestlers to join. Previously, most shin-deshi had to be 167cm and 67kg (middle school recruits needed to be 165cm and 65kg).

The Kyokai will also end the practice of granting some top amateur recruits preferential placement in the middle of Makushita division, at Makushita 10 or 15. Instead, Makushita tsukedashi will be limited to Makushita 60. That will probably be revisited if the division is expanded back to 90 ranks. Recent university phenoms, like Hakuoho and Onosato, as well as veterans like Endo and Mitakeumi, benefited from this. Both of these changes will be effective in January 2024.

Of Weights and Measures

Eliminating the height and weight restrictions for rikishi seems like an act of desperation, a way to throw open the doors to any Japanese male teenager. This is not necessarily the case. Several smaller wrestlers have been hampered by the restrictions. Famously, Mainoumi failed the height restriction (which at that time was higher than the current standard) so he had silicone implanted in the top of his head! The picture in this article announcing the change, is of Baraki* (Thank you, Sarah) standing on his tip-toes. I’m not sure if that’s how he reached 168cm. Anna Erhard’s recent hit, “170,” springs to mind when hearing of these shenanigans.

It’s not apparent how many wrestlers have been denied entry to professional sumo because of their height over the entire time frame that the restriction has been in place. It’s also not clear if there are any up-and-coming amateurs who are in danger of failing to meet the legacy threshold. However, what is clear is that the Kyokai is not going to disappear anytime soon. When I saw the list of 19 retiring wrestlers, that seemed like a lot to me until I started going through the historical data. The blue line in the chart below shows the total number of annual intai, according to data pulled from the SumoDB.

The spike in recruitment after Takanohana’s first yusho is apparent. However, that boom was followed by several years where retirements exceeded the number of inbound recruits. The massive recruitment drives of 1992 and 1993 are probably not repeated for many reasons, not just declines in popularity of the sport. The recent dip from Covid is bad news, sure. But the declines from the yaocho and bullying scandals of 2010-2011 appear to have been worse.

Along with the elimination of the height and weight requirements come some wishful thinking that the limitations on the number of foreigners in stables should/could be relaxed, too. Undoubtedly that would increase numbers. I’m not convinced that is what the Kyokai is really after here, though. I think they want quality wrestlers, yes. But they want quality Japanese wrestlers. I have always viewed the sumo world as a social welfare program for young men and I think that is why they will not cave to calls for more foreigners. Not many social benefits programs allow foreigners to get a visa and a path to citizenship.

The sport is subsidized by the government and has deep cultural and religious significance. “Foreign” membership will always be very small. That said, many wrestlers have found ways to skirt those rules, just as Mainoumi found ways to skirt the height requirements.

Slow Down the Hot Shots

The elimination of higher-level Makushita tsukedashi, at the 10 and 15 ranks, may have more of an impact on the quality of Top-Division Sumo than the height and weight reforms. Promising amateur recruits may decide that they would rather forgo their shot at professional sumo if they have to grind it out and fight their way through from the bottom of makushita. However, even this may be of limited real impact.

All of the current sanyaku wrestlers fought their way from Jonokuchi. The top tsukedashi wrestlers are Asanoyama and Gonoyama, both of whom started in Sandanme. University champions have not been the dominant force which I, personally, would have expected. Is Daiamami on any of your top watch lists? Mitakeumi and Ichinojo have probably been the most successful from that cohort. But there are so many other talents out there that come up from the bottom that I am starting to think that we should look in Jonokuchi for our next Yokozuna.

Anyway, they are very interesting reforms and time will tell how wrong I am on both of these. I’m curious what you all think.

Off-season Events Coming Up

The sound of drums has died down around Kokugikan but that doesn’t mean sumo action is “Gone Till November.” This week we will get a bit of a peek at the upcoming November banzuke when we learn about those all-important Juryo promotions. And this weekend, Okinoumi will celebrate his career in a retirement ceremony at Kokugikan. October is chock-full of jungyo dates from October 4 to the 29th, when the banzuke will be finally revealed to the public. So, stay tuned as we try to wipe our minds of what just happened last night.

Turning pro: does amateur sumo success translate?

Perhaps it’s my American sensibility showing (the NFL Draft brought over half a million people to my hometown in 2019), but the amateur-to-pro sumo prospect pipeline has been on my mind for quite some time. After several dark years where four All-Japan Amateur Yokozuna in a row (2017–2020) chose not to join Grand Sumo (one, Hidetora Hanada, is currently trying to make it in the Canadian Football League!), there has been a resurgence of amateur talent joining the pro ranks. In May this trend culminated in the debut of perhaps the most successful amateur wrestler of all time, Daiki Nakamura (now “Onosato”), and so I thought it might be fun to look through the record books and ask, “how does amateur sumo success translate to the professional level?”

In my examination I’ve gone back as far as 2008, because that’s the furthest back one can go and still find an active pro wrestler with a major amateur title (Myogiryu). I used this list from the very helpful sumoforum.net as my principal resource (it’s hard out there for us English-only sumo fans).

First, what do I mean by “amateur success?” There are many amateur tournaments and titles in Japanese sumo, but they are not all created equal. For the purposes of this article, I’m limiting my analysis to only the tournaments that can grant an amateur wrestler a higher debut ranking in Grand Sumo. For the most part, this means university-aged wrestlers and older. There are many prestigious high school titles, and many “high school Yokozuna” enter pro sumo as top prospects, but they must do so from the bottom rung, and for even the best it takes years to reach the salaried ranks from Jonokuchi.

Grand Sumo officially recognizes four in particular as major titles. They are the Kokutai Tournament, the University Championship, the Corporate Sumo Championship, and the most prestigious, the All-Japan Amateur Championship. The University Championship is for college students only, while the Corporate Championship is open only to non-students sponsored by their employer. The Kokutai and the All-Japan Amateurs are open to both, though their qualifying structures are very different (prefectures select their own representatives for the Kokutai, and notably, high school Yokozuna as well as university and corporate stand-outs are given bids to the All-Japan Amateurs). Winning any one of these tournaments (or even coming close) grants you a higher debut rank in Grand Sumo—Makushita 15 for winners, Sandanme 90 for runners up—and winning multiple titles grants you the highest debut rank you can earn: Makushita 10 Tsukedashi.

Since 2008 there have been eighteen men who have won an amateur title and then turned pro, and most have come from the university ranks, where a few powerhouse universities dominate. In particular, rivals Nihon University and Nippon Sport Science University can boast alumni of most of the wrestlers on the list below (for Americans, they are the Alabama and Ohio State of college sumo). There are some notable “corporate” stand-outs as well, however.

Shikona (Amateur titles) — Highest career pro rank as of July 2023

Myogiryu (Kokutai ’08) — Sekiwake

Jokoryu (University ’08) — Komusubi

Chiyotairyu (University ’10 + Kokutai ’10) — Komusubi

Shodai (University ’11) — Ozeki

Daikiho (Kokutai ’11) — Maegashira 16

Endo (All-Japan Amateur ’12 + Kokutai ’12) — Komusubi

Hokutofuji (University ’12 + Kokutai ’13) — Komusubi

Daishomaru (All-Japan Amateur ’13) — Maegashira 5

Ichinojo (Corporate ’13) — Sekiwake

Mitakeumi (All-Japan Amateur ’14 + University ’14) — Ozeki

Daiamami (Corporate ’15) — Maegashira 11

Mitoryu (All-Japan Amateur ’15 + University ’16) — Maegashira 15

Yago (All-Japan Amateur ’16) — Maegashira 10

Tochimusashi (University ’18) — Juryo 7

Oshoma (University ’20) — Juryo 3

Kiho / Kawazoe (University ’21) — Juryo 13

Hakuoho / Ochiai (Corporate ’22) — Maegashira 17

Onosato (All-Japan Amateur ’21, ’22 + University ’19 + Kokutai ’19, ‘22) — Makushita 3

 

At first glance, the answer to our question seems to be, “it depends.” But the base level seems clear. Every man on this list from 2008—2016 has achieved at least a Makuuchi promotion. Of those thirteen, eight (over half) have reached san’yaku, and two, Shodai and Mitakeumi, have attained the coveted title of Ozeki. It is also worth noting that those thirteen men have five top division yusho between them.

To me these observations are significant and suggest that our expectation for the last five men on the list, who have all been pros for 14 basho or less, should be at least a Maegashira ranking. San’yaku also seems a safe bet, though above that is anyone’s guess. Barring injury or scandal, however, they all have the potential to achieve top division success.

This is quintuply true for the aforementioned Onosato. Keen eyes will have already noted that no wrestlers on the above list have more than two amateur titles to their name—except for one. Onosato, being a 5-time amateur champ, has been heaped with high praise and higher expectations since well before his Ms10TD debut this May, and if he does not rocket up the banzuke it will be considered a colossal bust.

Let’s not worry about that yet, though. So far, our hot prospects have not disappointed. Oshoma, Tochimusashi, and Ochiai (now Hakuoho) already have lower division titles to their names, Kawazoe (now Kiho) just earned his Juryo promotion, and Onosato, with a debut 6-1 record (he won 6 straight after losing his very first bout to wily Ishizaki), is poised for salaried promotion by summer’s end. And these men are just the blue-chip prospects; there are too many young talents to count climbing their way up the banzuke right now. Sumo has been going through a strange transition since the retirement of the last era’s stars, but it seems a bright and competitive future is right around the corner with the next generation. I’m expecting at least one new Ozeki from the names above, and a lot of fun new rivalries besides. In particular, Nishonoseki stable (led by former Yokozuna Kisenosato) seems to be collecting Nippon Sports Science grads like Onosato and Takahashi, while Miyagino (former Yokozuna Hakuho) seems to favor Nihon University stars like Kiho and Otani, as well as some of the top high schoolers such as Hakuoho and Hokuseiho. Let’s hope these amateur-to-pro rivalries take all involved to the next level!

Michinoku-Beya Violence Scandal Update

Tachiai needs to close the loop on the most recent scandal to hit the sumo world which forced me to resurrect the scandal counter. Regular readers will remember that just before the Natsu basho Yasunishi, a junior wrestler at Michinoku-Beya, went to the press in order to call out a stablemate (revealed as Kirinofuji) for bullying. The allegations included verbal and physical abuse. Yasunishi’s protestations were apparently met with a tepid response from Michinoku-oyakata thus the need to go to the press and force his hand, with apparent support of another stablemate.

Kirinofuji retired but that is not the end of the story. We found out today that the Kyokai investigated the way that Michinoku handled the situation and found fault with the way that he minimized or dismissed the allegations. Michinoku will be docked 20% of his salary for 3 months and lost his position as head of operations, though he retains a position on the board.

After repeated rules violations by deshi, Tokiwayama-oyakata and more recently Isegahama-oyakata, suffered harsh demotions. The lesson should be clear. Michinoku will need to watch his junior deshi a bit closer now and act proactively to tackle bullying and harassment in his stable.