The Makushita yusho race is down to the four semifinalists.

Yesterday, we went through the quarterfinal bracket:

• Ms3w Kawazoe vs. Ms6e Shiden
• Ms19e Yoshii vs. Ms26e Ryuo
• Ms27w Kayo vs. Ms43 Kairyu
• Ms50e Kaizen vs. Ms59 Kainoshima

Here’s how this played out:

Kawazoe and Shiden locked up, and the veteran used his size advantage to drive the prospect back and out, with Kawazoe unable to pull off one of his patented utchari rescue moves. Yoshii and Ryuo appeared to go down together, with the gumbai going to Yoshii, followed by a monoii that reversed the decision and gave the victory to Ryuo. Kayo dominated Kairyu, while Kaizen prevailed after a back-and-forth battle Kainoshima.

This leaves us with Shiden vs. Ryuo and Kayo vs. Kaizen on Day 11. Kayo and Ryuo are in the same heya, so if both win, they would be given 5-1 opponents on Day 13, potentially opening the door to a multi-way playoff on the final day among 6-1 rikishi. Shiden, of course, has Juryo promotion on the line if he can win out.

After 5 rounds of bouts, we are left with only four realistic contenders in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone. In rough order of likelihood, they are:

1. Ms2w Chiyosakae (4-1)
2. Ms3w Kawazoe (4-1)
3. Ms2e Fujiseiun (3-2)
4. Ms1e Tsukahara (2-3)

Top-ranked Tsukahara must win out, but would jump to the head of the queue if he does. Fujiseiun needs at least one more win, and is very likely to go up with two. Chiyosakae and Kawazoe may have done enough already depending on other results, but of course will be seeking wins to bolster their cases (they’ve already fought, with Kawazoe prevailing, and so will probably see Juryo opponents).

Ms3e Tokihayate (2-3), Ms4w Kaisho (2-3), Ms5e Chiyonoumi (3-2), and Ms5w Tochikamiyama (2-3) are all long shots and must hope for losses by the other contenders and/or a meltdown in Juryo.

The Makushita yusho race is essentially a seven-round single-elimination tournament in which the 120 or so rikishi are reduced by half over two-day rounds until one man with a 7-0 record takes the title (occasionally, same-heya rikishi and other wrinkles throw a wrench into the works, and we end up with a playoff and a 6-1 champion). A 7-0 record from Ms1-Ms15 is a near-guarantee of promotion to Juryo, which otherwise usually requires a winning record from Ms1-Ms5. Four rounds have been completed so far, and we are left with 8 undefeated wrestlers. The next round, held on Day 9, will reduce them to our Final Four.

Here’s the bracket:

• Ms3w Kawazoe vs. Ms6e Shiden
• Ms19e Yoshii vs. Ms26e Ryuo
• Ms27w Kayo vs. Ms43 Kairyu
• Ms50e Kaizen vs. Ms59 Kainoshima

Kawazoe, from Miyagino beya, debuted at Ms15TD in September and holds an 18-7 career record with no make-koshi. Shiden is the hard-luck veteran who had to sit out his only Juryo tournament so far due to his involvement in a gambling incident with Hidenoumi, though he was later judged blameless. Yoshii, still only 19, was a hot prospect who’s stalled in Makushita; he won the 3rd-division title in July with a huge upset of Kinbozan, but then posted 3 straight losing records. Kayo is one of Nishonoseki beya’s top prospects, debuting at Sd90TD last May and going 29-10, with his only losing record being a 3-4 in January. The others are all lower-division lifers. Kayo and Ryuo are in the same heya, but they are on the opposite sides of the bracket, so this will only become an issue if both advance to 6-0, which seems a lot more likely for Kayo.

After 4 rounds of bouts, here’s a ranked list of contenders in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone.

1. Ms3w Kawazoe (4-0)
2. Ms2w Chiyosakae (3-1)
3. Ms2e Fujiseiun (2-2)
4. Ms3e Tokihayate (2-2)
5. Ms1e Tsukahara (1-3)
6. Ms1w Terutsuyoshi (1-3)
7. Ms5e Chiyonoumi (2-2)
8. Ms5w Tochikamiyama (2-2)
9. Ms4e Mineyaiba (1-3)
10. Ms4w Kaisho (1-3)

Very roughly, the first two could earn promotion with one more win, 3 and 4 need at least two, 5 and 6 must win out, while the rest would need a lot of help even if they win out. Tomorrow’s bouts feature 5 vs. 9 and 6 vs. 10, with the losers completely eliminated from contention. Another key bout is 3 vs. 4, while 7 vs. 8 is unlikely to be relevant. 1 and 2 fight Shiden and Ms6w Hayatefuji (3-1), respectively. Come back tomorrow, when the picture should be a fair bit clearer.

After 6 days and 3 rounds of bouts, let’s take a look at the action in Makushita, where exciting newcomers mix it up with veterans for a shot at the salaried ranks.

As a reminder, the Makushita yusho race is essentially a seven-round single-elimination tournament in which the 120 or so rikishi are reduced by half over two-day rounds until one man with a 7-0 record takes the title (occasionally, same-heya rikishi and other wrinkles throw a wrench into the works, and we end up with a playoff and a 6-1 champion). A 7-0 record from Ms1-Ms15 is a near-guarantee of promotion to Juryo, which otherwise usually requires a winning record from Ms1-Ms5. Three rounds have been completed so far, and we are left with 15 undefeated wrestlers. The next round, unfolding over Days 7 and 8, should reduce the number to 8.

Unlike in many recent basho, Makushita this time around lacks star power in the form of top-division mainstays fighting their way back from injury or suspension (think Terunofuji, Abi, Ryuden, and Asanoyama) or white-hot prospects like Hokuseiho, Kinbozan, Oshoma, and Ochiai. The closest to the latter group is Ochiai’s stablemate Ms3w Kawazoe (4-0), who looks to be well on his way to a sekitori debut. Other notable names among the undefeated 3-0 group are Ms6e Shiden, who was forced to sit out his only sekitori tournament to date, and Ms12e Ukranian Shishi. They should be matched up on Day 8, with the winner facing Kawazoe.

After only 3 rounds of bouts, all 10 active wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are still technically in contention for a Juryo spot, but it’s already a long shot for the top-ranked Ms1e Tsukahara (0-3), who must win out. Everyone else, aside from Kawazoe, is either 2-1 or 1-2.

I’ll try to keep these reports coming every two days or so, as additional rounds of bouts are completed.

As expected, former Ozeki Asanoyama will return to the salaried ranks in January. He’ll be joined by Ms1w Shonannoumi (5-2), who will make his sekitori debut. Yutakayama’s sudden retirement opened up one more slot, and the lucky beneficiary is former Juryo regular Ms5w Hakuyozan (5-2), who was expected to miss out after losing his Day 15 exchange bout to Kaisho. No one else in the Makushita promotion zone managed a winning record. I expect only one demotion—Tokushoryu—with the other two spots vacated by Yutakayama and Chiyotairyu.

本日１１月３０日、令和５年一月場所の番付編成会議を開き、以下の通り発表しました。

＜新十両＞湘南乃海（高田川）
＜再十両＞朝乃山（高砂）、白鷹山（高田川）#sumo　#相撲 pic.twitter.com/QA8nw6lC01

— 日本相撲協会公式（九州場所まで あと4日！） (@sumokyokai) November 30, 2022