Please see my previous post for background on the Makushita yusho and promotion races. After 8 days and 4 rounds of bouts, we are left with 6 undefeated wrestlers. The next round, unfolding on Day 9, will reduce the number to 3. You’ll note that neither 6 nor 3 are powers of 2, which is what you’d like in a knockout tournament. I expect the lowest-ranked of the 3 semifinalists to face the highest-ranked undefeated Sandanme wrestler, and there are multiple complications on the road to a Makushita champion.

Heading the undefeated group is top Isegahama prospect Ms6e Takerufuji, whose record in his 6th career basho is 36-3, with Jonokuchi and Jonidan yusho to his name. He will next face former hot prospect Ms21e Asashiyu, on the comeback trail after injury. The second quarterfinal is similar: strong newcomer Ms27w Asahakuryu (24-1 after starting in March) vs. former prospect and injury victim Ms39e Oshoryu. As the “Asa” prefix suggests, both Asashiyu and Asahakuryu hail from Takasago beya, which means that should they win, they can’t face each other. And they might be ranked too high to face a Sandanme rikishi, so the schedulers might give one (or both) of them a 4-1 opponent, potentially opening the way to a massive 6-1 playoff for the title.

The other half (third?) of the bracket features veteran Ms47w Chiyoarashi against Arashio beya’s somewhat less heralded prospect, Ms50e Daiseizan. The winner is likely to be matched with the winner of the Sandanme bout between Makushita veteran and occasional Juryo visitor Sd2w Kitaharima and yet another Isegahama prospect, Sd6w Satorufji (4th career basho, 22-3 record, Jonidan yusho).

After 4 rounds of bouts, 7 wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are still mathematically in contention for a Juryo spot. Ms3w Hitoshi and Ms5w Kiryuko are 3-1, Ms1w Yuma, Ms2e Hidenoumi, and Ms3e Kaisho are all 2-2, while Ms2w Tsushimanada and Ms4e Chiyonoumi are teetering on the edge at 1-3. Kiryuko, who might have to win out given his low rank, will try his luck in Juryo tomorrow against J14w Tenshoho (6-2). Other relevant Day 9 bouts match Kaisho with Yuma and Tsushimanada with Chiyonoumi (which will eliminate one), while Hitoshi will look for his kachi-koshi against Ms7w Tochimusashi and Hidenoumi takes on Ms7e Nabatame.

Look for the next update tomorrow.

After 6 days and 3 rounds of bouts, let’s take a look at the action in Makushita, where exciting newcomers mix it up with veterans for a shot at the salaried ranks.

As a reminder, the Makushita yusho race is essentially a seven-round single-elimination tournament in which the 120 or so rikishi are reduced by half over two-day rounds until one man with a 7-0 record takes the title (occasionally, same-heya rikishi and other wrinkles throw a wrench into the works, and we end up with a playoff and a 6-1 champion). A 7-0 record from Ms1-Ms15 is a near-guarantee of promotion to Juryo, which otherwise usually requires a winning record from Ms1-Ms5. Three rounds have been completed so far, and we are left with 12 undefeated wrestlers. The unusually low number is a consequence of (a) 10 absences and (b) no undefeated rikishi in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone because of defeats at the hands of Juryo opponents. The next round, unfolding over Days 7 and 8, will reduce the number to 6.

Heading the undefeated group is top Isegahama prospect Ms6e Takerufuji, whose record in his 6th career basho is 35-3, with Jonokuchi and Jonidan yusho to his name. Other notable names include long-time prospect Ms17e Otsuji and newcomer Ms27w Asahakuryu (23-1 after starting in March), as well as several rikishi on the comeback trail after injuries: Ms21e Asashiyu, Ms39e Oshoryu, and veteran Ms44w Kyokutaisei.

After only 3 rounds of bouts, all 9 active wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are still mathematically in contention for a Juryo spot. Ms3w Hitoshi (3-1) is in the best shape of the bunch after today’s defeat of hapless J12e Shimanoumi (1-5). I’ll try to keep these reports coming every two days or so, as additional rounds of bouts are completed.

Congratulations to Ms1e Tokihayate on taking the third-division title! This is his second career yusho to go with the one he won in his only Jonidan basho exactly 4 years ago. His Juryo debut in May ended with a 6-9 score from J14e; let’s see if he can do better in September, when he should be ranked higher in the division and have more of a cushion against demotion.

We have 4 clear open slots in Juryo: absent J6e Fujiseiun, J14e Yuma (4-9), J14w Chiyonoumi (4-9), and J11w Tsushimanada (2-11). All have unsalvageable rank-record combinations. Two other incumbents are not safe yet. J10w Shimanoumi (5-8) needs one more win for safety, although he could survive with two losses, especially given his extremely lenient treatment in the past. With the same record but two ranks lower, J12w Hidenoumi (5-8) really must win at least one more, although mathematically he needs two.

On the Makushita side, Tokihayate is obviously a lock for promotion. Four other rikishi in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone still have sekitori hopes. Ms5e Ishizaki is 5-2 after taking down Hidenoumi today. Ms4w Takahashi is 4-2, with a Day 15 bout left. Nishonoseki beya’s Ms3e Onosato is 3-3, as is Miyagino’s Ms3w Mukainakano. Both must win their final matches, and they are pitted tomorrow against the two endangered incumbents, Hidenoumi and Shimanoumi, respectively.

Here’s how I think the various scenarios play out. If Onosato and Mukainakano both lose, Ishizaki and Takahashi will go up, Hidenoumi and Shimanoumi survive, and the NSK will be scrambling for a 4th unconventional promotion, presumably Ms7w Tsukahara (6-1). If one of them loses and the other wins, we have 4 demotions and 4 promotions, unless Hidenoumi loses out, in which case Tsukahara could again be in luck. If both win, they both go up, and Takahashi fights Hidenoumi on senshuraku. If he loses, he’s the odd man out. If he wins, there’s room for him and for Ishizaki, who replaces Hidenoumi.

Things are coming down to the wire in the Makushita yusho and promotion races. After 11 days and six rounds of action, we have two undefeated rikishi, who will fight it out for the title.

The bout for the yusho pairs rikishi from opposite ends of the division: Ms1e Tokihayate and Ms54w Tochiseiryu. Top-ranked Tokihayate, with a Juryo basho under his belt, is the clear favorite against the lower-division journeyman, but strange things tend to happen in the Makushita yusho race.

At 6-0, Tokihayate is a lock for re-promotion to Juryo, taking the spot of absent Fujiseiun. J14w Chiyonoumi (3-8) is now demotable, likely opening up a second slot, and several other incumbents need a lot of wins for safety. Four rikishi are still in contention for any openings and will be looking for wins in their final bouts. Nishonoseki beya’s golden boy Ms3e Onosato has slumped to a 3-3 record, as has Miyagino’s Ms3w Mukainakano. Both must win their final matches, which are quite likely to be exchange bouts against endangered Juryo incumbents. Ms4w Takahashi (4-2) and Ms5e Ishizaki (4-2) are in better shape in that they’re already kachi-koshi, but their lower ranks mean that promotion is far from assured, and it’s not even clear if they would have precedence over the Ms3 duo should all win out. There is no relevant Day 12 action in Makushita, as the schedulers wait to see how things shake out in lower Juryo.