After 6 days and 3 rounds of bouts, let’s take a look at the action in Makushita, where exciting newcomers mix it up with veterans for a shot at the salaried ranks.

As a reminder, the Makushita yusho race is essentially a seven-round single-elimination tournament in which the 120 or so rikishi are reduced by half over two-day rounds until one man with a 7-0 record takes the title (occasionally, same-heya rikishi and other wrinkles throw a wrench into the works, and we end up with a playoff and a 6-1 champion). A 7-0 record from Ms1-Ms15 is a near-guarantee of promotion to Juryo, which otherwise usually requires a winning record from Ms1-Ms5.

There should be no shortage of promotion opportunities, as absent J6w Hakuoho, J8e Chiyomaru, and J14w Azumaryu are all set to be demoted, and debutant J11e Hitoshi (1-5) will be hard-pressed to find the wins he needs while fighting on one ankle.

After Day 6, we are left with 14 undefeated 3-0 wrestlers. The next round, unfolding over Days 7 and 8, will reduce the number to 7. Heading the undefeated group are two wrestlers with substantial Juryo experience: Ms1e Hakuyozan, who just dropped to the 3rd division after going 4-11 in September, and Ms7e Chiyonoumi. They are matched up tomorrow, and a victory by Hakuyozan would not only keep him in the yusho race but also clinch an immediate return to the sekitori ranks. Also among the undefeated wrestlers are the September yusho winner, Ms11e Kitaharima, who needs to defend his title to earn a record-tying 9th promotion to Juryo, as well as a number of other prospects and veterans. Not among them is Ms6e Wakatakakage (1-2); the former Sekiwake and Ozeki hope has looked rather shaky in his return following ACL surgery.

After only 3 rounds of bouts, all 9 active wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are still mathematically in contention for a Juryo spot (Ms2e Kiho is finally getting surgery for his injured foot and may not be back for a while). Along with the above-mentioned Hakuyozan, top Isegahama prospect Ms1w Takerufuji (2-1) is in good shape for a sekitori debut; everyone else is ranked lower and has one or two wins, so it’s too early to tell who’ll make a promotion push, but most are on the Day 7 torikumi, and these bouts should start to clarify the picture.

When we last left things, journeyman Ms47w Chiyoarashi was the last undefeated Makushita rikishi at 6-0, which meant that he would face a 5-1 opponent on Day 13, who needed to win to force a big Day 15 playoff the likes of which we have not seen since Hatsu 2021. The task fell to former co-leader Ms27w Asahakuryu, and to the delight of everyone except Chiyoarashi fans (are there Chiyoarashi fans?), he pulled it off. This means that we have seven, count them, seven rikishi tied with 6-1 records. They range from Ms3w Hitoshi, who is headed for a Juryo debut, to Ms53w Onojo. The format here is that they will draw lots, one wrestler will get a bye directly into the semifinals, the other six will be paired up randomly, and then the winners of those bouts and the rikishi who got the bye will again be randomly drawn into two semifinals, with the winners facing off for the title.

The Juryo promotions are settled. Precisely three rikishi in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone have winning records: Ms1w Yuma (4-3), Ms2e Hidenoumi (4-2), and Ms3w Hitoshi (6-1). Two spots in Juryo are open due to Wakatakakage’s absence and J13e Kiho’s (4-8-1) withdrawal. J10w Hakuyozan (3-10) is already demotable and would be the last man out as things stand today, but he could yet save himself by winning out, combined with losses by others.

The Makushita yusho race has the potential to be very interesting. Here’s where we left things last time: three rikishi led the yusho race at 5-0: Ms21e Asashiyu, Ms27w Asahakuryu, and Ms47w Chiyoarashi.

Normally, the two highest-ranked 5-0 rikishi would be matched up, and Chiyoarashi would fight the highest-ranked undefeated rikishi in Sandanme. But as the “Asa” prefix suggests, both Asashiyu and Asahakuryu hail from Takasago beya, which means that they can’t face each other. The schedulers matched Asashiyu with Chiyoarashi instead. This still left them looking for someone to fight Asahakuryu, who is ranked too high to get a Sandanme opponent, and they opted for the best available 4-1 candidate, Ms11w Oshoumi. Oshoumi rose to the occasion with a beautiful utchari to win a closely contested bout, while Chiyoarashi pulled off the upset with a thrust down of Asashiyu.

This left only Chiyoarashi undefeated at 6-0, which means that he’ll face a 5-1 opponent on Day 13 (I’m guessing Oshoumi). A win by the journeyman Chiyoarashi would hand him the Makushita yusho to go with the one he won in Sandanme all the way back in 2014. A win by Oshoumi would make things much more interesting, as it would take both men to 6-1. We currently have 5 other riksihi at 5-1 (including the two recent co-leaders), and we’ll get 4 more tomorrow after the bouts between the current 4-1’s. So if Oshoumi can win to go 6-1 and force Chiyoarashi down to the same record, we’ll have somewhere between 5 and 7 wrestlers tied at 6-1 and headed for a big Day 15 playoff the likes of which we have not seen since Hatsu 2021. Go Oshoumi!

After 6 rounds of bouts, 5 wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are still mathematically in contention for a Juryo spot. Three already have winning records and are in strong shape for promotion: Ms1w Yuma (4-2), Ms2e Hidenoumi (4-2), and Ms3w Hitoshi (5-1). Ms2w Tsushimanada (3-3) fights in Juryo tomorrow against J12w Takahashi (6-5); he must win to stay alive but won’t finish better than 4th in the promotion queue. Ms5w Kiryuko (3-3) must win his final bout and hope for a meltdown in Juryo. Only one spot there is currently open due to Wakatakakage’s absence. Several others still need more wins than losses to ensure a stay: the hilariously favored J12e Shimanoumi (3-8), injury-riddled J13e Kiho (4-7), J10w Hakuyozan (3-8), and J6w Azumaryu (1-10), who is looking ever closer to retirement.

Look for the next update after Day 13 action.

Please see this post for background on the Makushita yusho and promotion races. Last time, we had a group of six rikishi leading the yusho race at 4-0: Ms6e Takerufuji, Ms21e Asashiyu, Ms27w Asahakuryu, Ms39e Oshoryu, Ms47w Chiyoarashi, and Ms50e Daiseizan. They were paired up in rank order on Day 9, and Asashiyu, Asahakuryu, and Chiyoarashi prevailed.

Normally, the two highest-ranked 5-0 rikishi would be matched up, and Chiyoarashi would fight Makushita veteran and occasional Juryo visitor Sd2w Kitaharima, the highest-ranked undefeated rikishi in Sandanme. But as the “Asa” prefix suggests, both Asashiyu and Asahakuryu hail from Takasago beya, which means that they can’t face each other. This probably means that Asashiyu will get Chiyoarashi instead, with Asahakuryu facing Kitaharima, although Asahakuryu is ranked higher than anyone who’s gotten a Sandanme opponent in a similar situation in recent memory. Should the two Asa’s go 6-0, they’d have to face 5-1 opponents, raising the possibility of a big 6-1 playoff for the title, which we last saw at Hatsu 2021, with a whopping 9 rikishi involved. Anyway, we’ll find out how this all plays out on Day 11.

After 5 rounds of bouts, 6 wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone are still mathematically in contention for a Juryo spot. Ms3w Hitoshi is the only one who is already kachi-koshi at 4-1. Ms1w Yuma, Ms2e Hidenoumi, and Ms5w Kiryuko are all 3-2, while Ms2w Tsushimanada and Ms3e Kaisho are 2-3. The only action tomorrow will see Yuma visiting Juryo for an important bout against J13w Asakoryu (5-4). At this point, it’s hard to tell who might get a coveted sekitori promotion, especially with only one spot currently open in Juryo due to Wakatakakage’s absence, and only the hilariously favored J12e Shimanoumi (2-7) mathematically needing more wins than losses to stay (I fully expect him to escape demotion yet again with a 6-9 record, and perhaps even with a 5-10).

Look for the next update after Day 11 action.