Congratulations to Kirishima on his third yusho and impending Ozeki re-promotion. Let’s take a look at how the Haru results might reshuffle the rankings for Natsu.
Counting Kirishima, we’ll have two Yokozuna and three Ozeki, one of whom, Aonishiki (a shocking 7-8), will need a winning record in May to hold his rank. Sanyaku will expand to 9, and M17w will disappear. Two sanyaku slots will be vacated by Kirishima going up and K1e Wakamotoharu (a disastrous 3-12) going down. K1w Atamifuji (9-6) looks set to follow his Komusubi debut with a Sekiwake debut. The other three spots should be filled by S1w Takayasu (7-8), whose last-day win over Atamifuji should be just enough to stay in the named ranks, M1e Wakatakakage (8-6-1), and M5w Kotoshoho (11-4), although there’s room for debate about how to order them. M2e Fujinokawa (8-7) and M4w Takanosho (9-6) just miss out and should occupy M1. With a 9-man sanyaku, the joi line only goes down to M4e, and I expect these ranks to be filled out by Yoshinofuji, Ichiyamamoto, Hiradoumi, Oho and Daieisho, although M10e Gonoyama (10-5) could also be in the conversation.
Key question marks for the rest of the maegashira ranks are how far Wakamotoharu and M2w Churanoumi (4-11) will drop, as well as how far the rikishi promoted from Juryo will rise. Speaking of which, there are only two clear promotion cases: J1e Ryuden (9-6) and J3w Wakanosho (11-4), who is set to make his top-division debut. It looks like J3e Daiseizan (8-7) will suffer his 5th straight narrow miss. So two rikishi will drop from Makuuchi. The first is absent Midorifuji, though we are more concerned about his health. The second will likely be M6w Onokatsu (1-6-8), whose one win (by hansoku, no less!) probably won’t be enough to save him. The only other candidate is newcomer M17e Fujiryoga (7-8), who will be lucky to hang on to the bottom of the banzuke by the skin of his teeth.
There’s more movement between Juryo and Makushita. Dropping out of the sekitori ranks are J12w Tsurugisho (0-15), whom I fully expect to call it quits, J13e Shimazuumi (2-9-4), J14w Kotokuzan (4-11), and newcomer J13w Fujitensei (5-10), the Ms60TD high-schooler who frequently looked overmatched at this level. Taking their places will be Ms2w Okaryu (6-1), Ms2e Hakuyozan (5-2), Ms1w Tochitaikai (4-3), and, saving the best for last, Ms4e Enho (5-2)! If this is correct, Enho will have reached his longstanding goal of 30 sekitori basho, qualifying him for elder status should he wish to remain in the sumo association after he hangs up his mawashi.
We’ll find out about the Juryo promotions in a couple of days, but the rest of the rankings won’t come out until April 27. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
