Apologies, but I won’t be posting a day 2 preview for our mock Natsu basho. Some things came up at home which precluded my writing time. But there will be fresh results posted to the site before noon Eastern US time on Monday.
Stay tuned, the Mock Natsu basho rolls on.
Over at Grand Sumo Breakdown – the rest of the story behind the mock Natsu basho we are simulating out of love for the sport. Head over there and enjoy the hard work the team at GSB has put into the engine running the basho.
The first day of the mock Natsu basho is in the record books. Both Ozeki start the tournament with a loss, and for Takakeisho, he can ill afford to lose some of these easy opening matches. As a kadoban Ozeki, he needs to win 8 in this tournament to hold onto his rank. In the lead up to the basho, the rikishi have not really been allowed full contact (or any contact) in training until 1 week before the start of the tournament. As a result, I am fairly sure quite a few of the competitors are far short of the necessary condition to fight.
Kotoyuki defeats Terunofuji (Oshidashi) – Everyone’s hopes are high around the former Ozeki, but today he seemed to struggle with mobility as Kotoyuki showed zero ring rust, and seems to be back in his genki form which saw him kachi-koshi at Maegashira 4 last November. He kept Terunofuji turning to face his blistering slaps, and the former Ozeki found himself out of the ring. The dismount looked a bit rough, but seemed ok.
Nishikigi defeats Kotoeko (Oshidashi) – Kotoeko is an odd hot / cold streak rikishi, and it’s clear that he has a lot of ring rust to start Natsu. He went chest to chest with Nishikigi, who attempted his double arm bar hold, but Kotoeko was able to escape, but a solid shove from Nishikigi as Kotoeko broke contact saw the Sadogatake step across the bales for a loss on opening day.
Chiyomaru defeats Kotoshoho (Tsukiotoshi) – Welcome to the top division, Kotoshoho! As a welcome gift, nearly 200 kg of curry chugging Chiyomaru. I think Kotoshoho was surprised by how quickly Chiyomaru came off the shikiri-sen, pushed inside and unleashed a relentless torrent of thrusts center-mass. Clearly overwhelmed, Kotoshoho went down in a heap. At Maegashira 15, a genki Chiyomaru could really clean up this May.
Kotoshogiku defeats Wakatakakage (Yoritaoshi) – Wakatakakage’s first match against the Kyushu bulldozer was a lesson in what not to do. He went for an outside grip at the tachiai, and Kotoshogiku had morozashi at the second step. Finding himself locked in a burly embrace, the hug-n-chug power assault was relentless, and Wakatakakage went down hard just shy of the tawara. For an old guy on the fade-out part of his career, it’s great to watch Kotoshogiku play his greatest hits.
Takayasu defeats Kotonowaka (Oshidashi) – What busted elbow? A thousand thanks, Oh Great Sumo Cat of the Kokugikan! I think Kotonowaka was not sure what to expect, given how fragile Takayasu has been since Tamawashi’s arm breaker kotenage last July. But it was a shoulder blast, then relentless forward drive against the much smaller Kotonowaka. A good escape move from Kotonowaka after Takayasu’s initial drive, but the former Ozeki lunged back into the fight and took the highest ranking Sadogatake rikishi out. Dare we hope Takayasu is genki?
Sadanoumi defeats Shohozan (Yorikiri) – Shohozan went for a big hit at the tachiai and missed, and Sadanoumi’s speed had Shohozan pinned to Sadanoumi’s chest, and completely off balance a heartbeat later. With a strong push forward, Shohozan was back and out. I worry that Shohozan, who is now 36(!) is starting to fade.
Shimanoumi defeats Tochinoshin (Oshidashi) – It’s painful to watch Tochinoshin struggle in matches like this, but unless some miracle brings his knee back from the happy hunting grounds, this is probably the best Tochinoshin can do. The limited training regimen prior to Natsu has clearly dampened whatever fighting edge he has left.
Kaisei defeats Myogiryu (Oshidashi) – Myogiryu took the fight to the big Brazilian, and manhandled him to the bales before loading a throw. But there’s just so much Kaisei to move that even the best placed pivot is a risk. Both men collapsed into the throw, and the gumbai went to Myogiryu. Replays show Myogiryu touching down first, and the gyoji ended up revised, giving Kaisei an opening day win.
Tamawashi defeats Ikioi (Kotenage) – Both of the rikishi have more injuries than is reasonable, but they mount the dohyo with grim determination and fighting sprit. But you have to wonder when Tamawashi is going to stop using that Kotenage. Ikioi took it today, and it seems to have been bothering him following the match.
Ishiura defeats Chiyotairyu (Tsukiotoshi) – As most fans know, I am not usually in favor of a henka, but today’s flying leap was a graceful work of sumo art, and thunder god Chiyotairyu went blasting forward at the tachiai, sealing his doom. Ok Ishiura, don’t make a habit out of that.
Tokushoryu defeats Terutsuyoshi (Okuridashi) – Am I too sentimental? Maybe. Terutsuyoshi got the better of the opening move, and took inside position at the tachiai. But as he drove forward, Tokushoryu set up his side step at the tawara that took him to the yusho this January. But points to Terutsuyoshi who read it well enough to stay on his feet and in the ring. But he was turned around to the point where a firm shove from behind by Tokushoryu sent him into the timekeeper’s lap.
Ryuden defeats Enho (Kotenage) – The first thing of note, Ryuden mounted the dohyo with un-stiffened sagari. Rather than some manner of sumo faux-pas, I have it on reasonable authority that those are / were Shobushi sagari! Enho’s opening gambit found it’s mark with a frontal grip on Ryuden’s mawashi, but in a deft move he was able to circle against Enho’s pivot, and was rewarded with a grip across Enho’s upper arm. Ryuden dropped his inside hip and launched Enho to the clay. Nice move from Ryuden today.
Abi defeats Hokutofuji (Hikiotoshi) – Hokutofuji’s handshake tachiai had zero chance today as Abi had his hands at Hokutofuji’s neck in the first step. Finding himself trapped, he pushed forward to find Abi stepping to the side, sending Hokutofuji to the clay. Messy fight for Hokutofuji.
Kagayaki defeats Aoiyama (Hikiotoshi)- A clean sweep for the Takadagawa rikishi, Big Dan Aoiyama opened strong, but Kagayaki was able to keep his feet and keep low. I love watching how heavy his feet are in this match, just damn impeccable footwork again from Kagayaki. As can happen with Aoiyama, Kagayaki caught him to far forward and Kagayaki helped him to the clay.
Daieisho defeats Kiribayama (Tsukuinage) – Daieisho got inside at the tachiai, but could not really dominate Kiribayama in the opening moments of the fight. The two locked up in the center of the ring for a few moments before Daieisho loaded a throw and unleashed a brutal Tsukuinage. He put so much energy into the twist that he went down with Kiribayama. It was close enough that the Shimpan wanted to review it, but the gyoji’s verdict was upheld, giving Daieisho an opening day win.
Mitakeumi defeats Takarafuji (Uwatenage) – I don’t know, but I was a bit surprised to see Mitakeumi look, well, hard. He’s still a giant bulbous tadpole, but he seems to have a bit of fire in his enormous belly right now. Takarafuji worked to stay mobile, and kept Mitakeumi moving until the moment that Mitakeumi found a handful of mawashi and unlaced an unexpected Uwatenage, tossing Takarafuji to the clay.
Shodai defeats Onosho (Yorikiri) – I love Onosho, but what the hell – you had to know that if you went chest to chest with Shodai he was going to own you. I am happy that Onosho was willing to give it a try, but it was doomed from the start.
Takanosho defeats Asanoyama (Hikiotoshi) – Ugly way to start your first basho as an Ozeki, and we once again get to see the power and versatility of Takanosho. Asanoyama takes Takanosho to his chest, and instantly goes for that classic sumo stance. But Takanosho deflects his forward power, turning him and pulling him forward by the arm. A surprisingly fast take down of the shin-Ozeki.
Yutakayama defeats Takakeisho (Tsukidashi) – Yutakayama found himself in the driver’s seat against Takakeisho today, who is not looking promising to defend his rank by making it to 8. Yutakayama got inside early, and kept up the pressure. Takakeisho was not able to set up much offense, but was able to stay on his feet and stay inbounds. A rescue move as Yutakayama lunged to finish the Ozeki appeared to work, but a Shimpan review showed that Takakeisho’s heal hit the janome before Yutakayama stepped out. Both Ozeki lose their opening day matches.
Kakuryu defeats Endo (Hatakikomi) – Endo goes for the frontal grip at the tachiai and immediately gets slapped down by the Yokozuna. Quick, brutal and effective.
Hakuho defeats Okinoumi (Yorikiri) – I was expecting an uwatenage, Okinoumi was expecting an uwatenage, I think even people who know nothing about sumo were expecting The Boss to give Okinoumi one of his famous flying lessons. Instead Hakuho kept it simple and scooted Okinoumi across the bales.
Welcome dear readers to our mock basho for Natsu. The actual tournament may have been canceled for health reasons, but the die-hard fans at Grand Sumo Breakdown and Team Tachiai have decided to carry on as best we can. This means that the Grand Sumo Breakdown crew are using their database, statistics and love of the sport to generate daily fight cards (Torikumi), and match results. These match results go quite a bit beyond any sort of random coin toss to determine an outcome. The GSB folks have meticulous statistics on fighting style, advantages and weaknesses that are rolled into the fight scoring system. We have also come up with a way to put things like winning streaks, fighting spirit and injuries large and small into the simulation. So prepare yourself for something we hope will be close enough to real to make it worth your time.
Day 1 has a raft of great matches, and there is likely going to be heaping piles of ring rust to remove, given the tight restrictions on practice leading up to this basho. With the dohyo sanctified in the virtual Kokugikan (a generous offering of sake, gyudon, and some potato chips were made last night), it’s battle time for Natsu!
Terunofuji vs Kotoyuki – Welcome back Kaiju! Fans are very interested to see how the former Ozeki is going to do in his return to the top division. His upper body looks excellent, but we know his knees are on borrowed time. He pushed through Juryo in 2 tournaments, including a yusho from Juryo 13, so lets hope he can hold on. He’s up against Kotoyuki, none other than “The Penguin” who showed remarkable skill and ferocity in the latter half of 2019 before an injury saw him miss Hatsu, before a final day fusensho gave him an 8-7 kachi-koshi and returned him to Makuuchi.
Nishikigi vs Kotoeko – Next up we have Nishikigi’s first match of the tournament. He’s never been a contender above Maegashira 8, except for that magical Cinderella run in late 2018 that saw him in the joi-jin, and even score a kinboshi against Kakuryu. He’s up against Kotoeko, one of the Sadogatake throng that has clogged up the lower rungs of the banzuke like so much oatmeal in a shower drain. I am expecting Nishikigi to open with a right hand inside attempt, and if he can get a handful of mawashi, he will be tough to move.
Kotoshoho vs Chiyomaru – It’s raining Sadogatake men! I don’t envy the scheduling crew with this many rikishi from one heya bunched together at the bottom of the banzuke. But this is young Kotoshoho’s debut match as a Maegashira, and a hearty congratulations to him. But sure, let’s have him draw the bulbous Chiyomaru on day 1. Given their fighting styles, I predict a flurry of blows in the opening seconds. If Chiyomaru can get him down or off balance in the first 5 seconds, he’s favored. But Kotoshoho’s endurance and mobility will likely carry the match.
Kotoshogiku vs Wakatakakage – Veteran and former Ozeki Kotoshogiku draws the highest ranking Onami brother, who has returned to the top division after an injury on day 4 of his debut tournament in Kyushu wrecked what had been a 4-0 start. He fought strongly in Juryo, and I think he’s ready to resume his upward climb. For Kotoshogiku, it’a all about the knees. If they are in good condition (tough to know given the modified training regimen) he may give Wakatakakage a ride on the hug-n-chug express.
Takayasu vs Kotonowaka – Former Ozeki Takayasu is possibly in no condition to fight, given his accumulating and compounding injuries. Couple that with the “no contact” training policy that was in effect until the final days prior to the basho, and I worry that he is almost completely de-conditioned at this point. Like his sempai, Kisenosato, he’s just going to plow ahead and go out fighting. He’s up against Kotonowaka who turned in a solid 9-6 in Osaka from the rump end of the banzuke (M18e). Frankly, I worry that the next injury ends Takayasu’s career.
Sadanoumi vs Shohozan – Speed match up! We are going to get to see brawler Shohozan work to deal with Sadanoumi’s explosive speed. I think the opening gambit will be a hit and shift from Shohozan, in an attempt to dampen some of his opponent’s tendency to get inside a half step faster than anyone.
Shimanoumi vs Tochinoshin – Another wounded former Ozeki with banged up knees. We love Tochinoshin and his amazing power sumo, and wonder if possibly the modified practice rules may have given him a chance to build strength and reduce swelling in that knee tissue. Shimanoumi has an edge on balance and manuverablity, and should be able to shut down Tochinoshin’s try for a left hand outside grip.
Kaisei vs Myogiryu – After a disastrous 4-11 in Osaka, Myogiryu is looking to bounce back. He finds him self in the bottom half of the banzuke, territory he has not patrolled wince May of 2018. His first test to regain his place among the top men of sumo is Kaisei, who sometimes has a slow or shaky start to a tournament.
Tamawashi vs Ikioi – Two long-serving (suffering?) veterans in a highlight match for me. Given how lightly the rikishi have been training in the one week prior to the tournament, this may come down to fighting spirit and who gets the first move. Tamawashi’s mobility may be the deciding factory today.
Ishiura vs Chiyotairyu – A classic sumo size battle, it’s thunder-god Chiyotairyu against a smaller, more nimble Ishiura. Ishiura has been showing much better sumo over the past 2 tournaments, and at times is executing small-man sumo better than Enho. But it’s going to be tough to overcome Chiyotairyu’s potent opening charge. Henka anyone?
Terutsuyoshi vs Tokushoryu – Tokushoryu is slowly drifting back down the banzuke following his surprise January yusho, but his sumo is still a lot of fun to watch, and his posting to Maegashira 7 for May is going to be much more competitive than his Maegashira 2 in Osaka. I expect we may see his trademark tsukiotoshi at the edge against compact powerhouse Terutsuyoshi.
Enho vs Ryuden – I will come out and say it – I am curious if the death of Shobushi will have an effect on the Takadagawa rikishi. Shobushi had an outsized, ebullient personality, and his death via Corona virus likely left a emotional wound in everyone one in Takadagawa heya. But will it hinder, or will it motivate Ryuden and Kagayaki? Expect no quarter from Enho, who will come in low and fast, and Ryuden may find himself on the dirt before he can act.
Abi vs Hokutofuji – Two big pusher-thruster rikishi, but from widely divergent styles. Both of these two are ranked well below their ability, but after horribly crummy performance in Osaka, they get to slug it out from the furthest reaches of the Makuuchi joi-jin. Did the lack of crowd and empty hall rattle their sumo? If anything an empty Kokugikan will be no less spooky for these two. I am going to say that if Abi gets the double arm attack in before Hokutofuji can land his handshake tachiai, he’s going to put the big man down.
Kagayaki vs Aoiyama – Big Dan Aoiyama seems to go through hot and cold streaks. With an 11-4 record in Osaka, following up from a 4-11 at Hatsu, it’s anyone’s guess which version of Aoiyama is going to show up. We can assume that Kagayaki will suffer from his traditional ring rust, plus any distractions from heya-mate Shobushi’s untimely demise. I would guess that gives Aoiyama and edge today, as I don’t quite know if Kagayaki is going to be up to fighting form for a few days.
Daieisho vs Kiribayama – Mongolian Kiribayama has been on a steady climb since he broke into Juryo last year, and now he finds himself in matches facing named ranked rikishi. I worry that he has been over-promoted, and given the limited work up to this tournament, he may struggle against a more seasoned rikishi in Daieisho. If Daieisho can get inside at the tachiai and attack center-mass, I think he gets the win.
Takarafuji vs Mitakeumi – Back at Sekiwake, Mitakeumi has to be completely agitated that now 2 younger rikishi have overtaken him for sumo’s second highest rank. If he is frustrated, he needs to attenuate it against Takarafuji, whose defend and extend sumo will give any rikishi ample chance to make an exploitable mistake. I have confidence that the modified training schedule effected Takarafuji less, but Mitakeumi’s superior size, and very aggressive sumo may carry the day.
Shodai vs Onosho – Wow, readers know that I feel strongly about this match. I am very excited to see Onosho back in the joi, and I think his presence will drive Ozeki Takakeisho to higher levels of performance. But there is the open question of Shodai. It’s clear that Yokozuna Kakuryu has been helping to guide his sumo, and he has improved quite a bit. This is Shoday’s second consecutive tournament as Sekiwake, and he has to be focused on a double digit win. His first step on that path will be overcoming Onosho day 1.
Takanosho vs Asanoyama – Shin Ozeki- Asanoyama faces his first match in sumo’s second highest rank against upstart Takanosho, who picked up the jun-yusho in Osaka with blistering 12-3 score from Maegashira 9. It’s a vastly different level of competition now at Maegashira 2, and he’s up against a man that many feel will be our next Yokozuna, if he can stay healthy. Asanoyama’s yotsu-zumo style has been basically outlawed from practice for the past 2 months, so it will be anyone’s guess just how much ring-rust the shin-Ozeki will need to overcome.
Takakeisho vs Yutakayama – Takakeisho starts this basho kadoban, and at real risk of joining the conga line of defrocked Ozeki milling about in the lower half of Makuuchi. Yutakayama’s slow grind back to the top ranks has been a hard campaign, but he’s looking better than ever, and was fighting fairly well in Osaka. Both men will want to use an oshi-zumo style, which favors Takakeisho.
Endo vs Kakuryu – Endo will try for the right frontal grip at the tachiai, and I fully expect Kakuryu to make him pay through the nose. Out of all the rikishi, I think Kakuryu may be the most able to come out ready to fight in spite of the training limitations.
Hakuho vs Okinoumi – Journeyman Okinoumi draws the first match against the Osaka yusho winner and dai-Yokozuna Hakuho. You know that Okinoumi is going to give it his all, but I can just hear Hakuho loading that uwatenage all the way across the Pacific.