Osaka Day 14 Highlights

As it so frequently does, the world of sumo has simplified matters going into the final day. The yusho race as been reduced into a single winner take all match between the Yokozuna, the winner takes the cup. Asanoyama’s Ozeki bid will probably fall short, as his match went to a monoii, and the judges overturned the gyoji’s gumbai (and rightly so). There are a slew of Darwin matches for the final day, and a number of deserving rikishi scored their 8th win today, to reach safety. Let’s dive into the action.

Highlight Matches

Kotonowaka defeats Nishikigi – Kotonowaka overcame poor body position at the tachiai to pick up his 8th win. Nishikigi’s attempt to change his grip opened door for Kotonowaka to go on the attack, and he rapidly put Nishikigi on the clay. That’s kachi-koshi for Kotonowaka in his first tournament in the top division.

Meisei defeats Ishiura – Ishiura lost this match when he attempted to set up a throw and released forward pressure, and Meisei read it correctly and charged ahead. Meisei improves to 7-7, and will enjoy a lovely Darwin match on the final day.

Shimanoumi defeats Ikioi – Ikioi gave it a full measure today, but Shimanoumi had acres of motivation, and a keen desire to stay out of the Darwin mosh pit on day 15. If you want to see two very strong people grapple and struggle to overpower each other, this match is for you. Both men exit the match 8-6 with well deserved kachi-koshi results for March.

Chiyotairyu defeats Kotoshogiku – Chiyotairyu gave ground at the tachiai, and pulled Kotoshogiku forward and down for a quick win to reach the safety of kachi-koshi. Chiyotairyu opened strong, but lost 5 of his last 7, and is fortunate to get 8 in March. Kotoshogiku drops to 7-7 and joins the Darwin squad.

Terutsuyoshi defeats Chiyomaru – Terutsuyoshi did a masterful job of disrupting Chiyomaru’s preferred attack mode, and took control of the match when he got beside the big man and danced him to the bales. I liked the little “get away from me kid!” slap as Chiyomaru’s overwhelming inertia drove him stumbling across the bales. Terutsuyoshi: kachi-koshi, Chiyomaru: Darwin time.

Tochiozan defeats Azumaryu – Tochiozan manages to piece together his second win of the tournament. You can see him losing power as Azumaryu increases his attack, but Tochiozan found some reservoir of genki and gave his opponent a final vigorous shove for the win. Both were deeply make-koshi before this match, so it’s down to 5-9 for Azumaryu and 2-12 for Tochiozan.

Sadanoumi defeats Shohozan – The timing on that tachiai was odd, and may have contributed to the lack of real offense from Shohozan. Sadanoumi uses his speed to get a hold of Shohozan at the tachiai, and escorts him out to improve to 6-8.

Tamawashi defeats Daiamami – Nice to see a little flavor of the Tamawashi of old. He came off the shikiri-sen looking to attack, and was able to get inside at once and apply a lot of energy into Daiamami. Both end day 14 at 5-9.

Myogiryu defeats Enho – Nearly everyone has done a solid job of shutting down Enho’s two main weapons, “Grabby and Squeezy”. They keep him at distance and hit him repeatedly. Today Myogiryu applied this well, but Enho did manage to get a left hand inside grip. As Enho pivoted to throw, Myogiryu expertly shut it down and send Enho to the clay for his 9th loss. Both are deeply make-koshi, and will end March with stiff demotions.

Tochinoshin defeats Yutakayama – Yutakayama, for some reason, focused high – putting all of his force against Tochinoshin’s face and neck. Tochinoshin focused on Yutakayama’s body, and got good results. Yutakayama has massive potential, but is still working out some of his mechanics, and Tochinoshin’s experience got him a much needed, and well deserved win. Yutakayama drops to 7-7, and joins the Darwin mosh pit.

Takanosho defeats Mitakeumi – Impressive that Takanosho overpowered Mitakeumi at the tachiai, I was not expecting that. Takanosho followed up with a solid right hand ottsuke, pinning Mitakeumi’s arms to his body, and shutting down any real offense. Mitakeumi went to shift his grip, and that just furthered Takanosho’s advantage. Realizing he was almost out of space, Mitakeumi tried a pull, which released forward pressure and allowed Takanosho to drive him from the ring. Nice sumo today from Takanosho, he advances to 11-3. In spite of his loss, Mitakeumi is in double digits for the first time sine his Aki 2019 yusho (12-3).

Kiribayama defeats Okinoumi – Kiribayama took control of this match at the tachiai with a left hand inside grip, and moments later converted it to an uwatehineri. The win gives him a kachi-koshi at his highest ever rank. He has been kachi-koshi in 8 of his last 9 tournaments. Wow! Okinoumi drops to 7-7 and joins the Darwin group.

Tokushoryu defeats Kaisei – A bit more of the Tokushoryu magic came out today. He did a masterful job of controlling Kaisei’s Newtonian sumo, and was able to execute his step back / pivot / thrust finishing move that fans loved in January. Tokushoryu improves to 4-10.

Daieisho defeats Ryuden – Amazing the amount of aggressive sumo that Daieisho output today. Ryuden is no easy mark, but Daieisho battered him with vigor, leaving Ryuden really no means to counter attack. That’s Daieisho’s 8th win, and kachi-koshi for March.

Hokutofuji defeats Kagayaki – Hokutofuji finds his tachiai after being a bit dull for most of March, and blasts Kagayaki out in a hurry, dropping him to 7-7 and placing him in the Darwin group.

Abi defeats Endo – Abi stood him up and then pulled him down. Given Abi’s height advantage and long arms, if he can get that set up, there is little that anyone of Endo’s stature can do to prevent it. Endo drops to 7-7 and is likewise relegated to the Darwin group.

Shodai defeats Takarafuji – Surprisingly sharp tachiai from Shodai today, I think it surprised Takarafuji as well, as Shodai was immedately on the advance, and Takarafuji had no chance to set up any manner of defense or deflection. Shodai now kachi-koshi, and he retains a Sekiwake slot. Nicely done.

Takakeisho defeats Onosho – Onosho had the early advantage, but Takakeisho got a moment to get both arms primed for a double arm blast, and that was really all it took to change the tone of this match. This is the first of many in the years to come, and I am glad they are going to battle it out as mainstays of the new era of sumo. This was a must-win match for Takakeisho, and he improves to 7-7. He has Asanoyama on the final day, and the contest more or less comes down to kadoban vs Ozeki promotion, I would guess.

Hakuho defeats Aoiyama – I am not sure I would call it nerves, but Aoiyama took his time to set up the V-Twin attack, and when he did, Hakuho so expertly deflected it that Aoiyama could not keep his footing. This kind of mistake Hakuho exploits with great skill and energy, and Big Dan was flat on the clay a moment later. Hakuho’s win sets the stage for the final match of the basho to decide the yusho.

Kakuryu defeats Asanoyama – Absolute showcase of Kakuryu’s reactive sumo. Asanoyama brought strong, careful offense today, and the Yokozuna absorbed it all. Asanoyama kept pouring it on, and for a long stretch he saw victory before him. Loading a throw at the bales, he pivoted just as Kakuryu pivoted as well. The went down in tandem, but poor body control saw Asanoyama’s left arm touch down first, costing him the match. That was solid sumo from the Ozeki candidate, but this means he cannot reach 12 wins to reach 33 over 3 tournaments this march. Will it matter? He showed excellent power, and great skill in this match in spite of the loss. Kakuryu joins Hakuho at 12-2, and will contest for the cup on the final match of the tournament.

Osaka Day 14 Preview

The evolution of sumo demands Darwin matches. Lots and lots of Darwin matches…

It’s the final weekend of the Haru Basho, and as odd as it has been to have nobody in the stands, I must say, as the world has gone progressively more crazy, shutting down everything, how glad I am to still have sumo to watch. The weekend promises to be sort of spectacular, with a possibly multi-way challenge for the cup on the final day, and a really disturbing number of Darwin matches. If you have not read lksumo’s write ups of the story lines or the yusho race, go check them out now.

I am going to be very interested to see what the ratings are (in Japan) for this basho. Much as in the US and the EU, all sports have been shut down as the world holds its breath and hopes they don’t start to cough. With nothing else to follow, I suspect that sumo’s numbers will be up dramatically, and just maybe that will help some people re-connect with Japan’s national sport. For fans who have been urging the NSK to throttle back on the intensity and duration of the jungyo regional tour, the jungyo following the Haru Basho has been called off or at least delayed until next year. Following senshuraku (and no senshuraku parties, I am told), the stables will return to Tokyo. For the top men of sumo, that’s 6 weeks of sequestered training, rather than a grueling tour of Japan. We don’t know what will happen for the May / Natsu basho, but given that Osaka seems to have worked, they may conduct the next tournament in the same way. If so, most of the world will be 10 weeks into societal disruption of some level, and it will be wonderful to see the ranks of the top division come together for a brutal 15 days of sumo, fresh from 6 weeks of non-stop training.

What We Are Watching Day 14

Kotonowaka vs Nishikigi – After opening strong, Kotonowaka has lost his last 4, and just can’t seem to cross the kachi-koshi line. He had better win today, or it’s Darwin time for him. He won the only prior match with already make-koshi Nishikigi.

Ishiura vs Meisei – What a position. If Meisei loses today, it’s make-koshi time, and likely a trip on the Juryo demotion barge. If he wins, it’s into the hell of a day 15 Darwin match. He holds a 3-1 career lead over Ishiura.

Shimanoumi vs Ikioi – The converse for this match—if Shimanoumi wins, he reaches the safety of kachi-koshi, and if he loses, it’s Darwin for him as well. Though he won the only prior match with Ikioi, the Osaka native is looking fairly genki, so hold on tight, this one could get rough.

Chiyotairyu vs Kotoshogiku – Oh and the brutality continues! Winner of today’s match is kachi-koshi, loser goes into the Darwin pool for day 15. Now Kotoshogiku holds a 16-2 advantage over Chiyotairyu, and he seems to have found some magic knee grease to keep what’s left of his patellas moving. Chiyotairyu has about 3 seconds at the tachiai to take care of business, and after that I am sure the Kyushu Bulldozer will lower the blade.

Chiyomaru vs Terutsuyoshi – Can you sense a theme here? Winner: kachi-koshi, Loser: DARWIN! As a bonus it’s the spherical Chiyomaru vs the Isegahama mobile attack platform, Terutsuyoshi. Whose sumo will reign supreme? (Oh, sorry – this is not kitchen stadium…)

Azumaryu vs Tochiozan – They had to slide the battle of the damned in here somewhere, so let’s take a look at a couple of sad cases of violent, explosive demotion. Tochiozan could very well end up being the skipper of the Juryo barge. And I don’t see how he can prevent Azumaryu throwing him overboard to try to save his own Maegashira 16 self. [Note: this is Azumaryu’s 7th basho ranked in the top division. He sat out one, and finished make-koshi in each of the other 6, including the current one. Twice, he dodged demotion with a 7-8 record, most recently in January. -lksumo]

Shohozan vs Sadanoumi – It’s another game of “Blow the man down” as fellow grizzled veteran Shohozan takes on water. He holds a 10-4 career advantage over Sadanoumi and his speed sumo. But right now Shohozan is lacking quite a bit, probably due to injuries, and I worry he is gone from the top division after the next tournament.

Daiamami vs Tamawashi – In still more demotion follies, it’s Daiamami on the bubble for Juryo in this match, as already make-koshi Tamawashi works to muster enough genki to send the Oitekaze man into exile in the junior division. This is a first-time match between the two, so who knows what kind of fight they will choose.

Enho vs Myogiryu – Have you had enough brutality yet? No, you have not! Because here comes another. Myogiryu is already in the double-digit-loss column, and he’s headed south in a big way. No, not onto the Juryo barge, but he’s going to be able to see Juryo from where he ends up. Enho will probably use his high-mobility sumo this time, and may end the tournament 7-8. I have to wonder if he has some injury.

Yutakayama vs Tochinoshin – A Yutakayama win today, and he’s kachi-koshi. A loss and he joins the ranks of the Darwin meat grinder. Tochinoshin is already make-koshi, and clearly in a bunch of pain along with having mobility and power problems. So I am going to guess that the “Big Unit” is going to get his first win over the former Ozeki today.

Takanosho vs Mitakeumi – Yes! It’s the first of our big matches! Both are 10-3, both are fighting very well, and only one of them can exit with their 11th win. If its Mitakeumi, the Ozeki talk may start up again. He certainly has shown better sumo than injured Takakeisho, and sumo really needs like 3 more Ozeki. But then there is Takanosho. This guy really has over-performed this March, and I hope it’s the shape of things to come.

Okinoumi vs Kiribayama – And yet again – Winner is kachi-koshi, loser joins the Darwin crew for day 15. It’s going to be a blood bath of epic proportions Sunday, yes indeed. This is a first-time match, so some guesswork will be required by both rikishi as far as tactics to use. I expect Okinoumi to dive inside and try to get his favorite grip, and Kiribayama to try and stay mobile.

Kaisei vs Tokushoryu – Will kachi-koshi Kaisei take pity on the Hatsu yusho winner? I am not suggesting match fixing, but Tokushoryu is already at double digit losses, and these two have some history together (9-3 advantage Kaisei).

Daieisho vs Ryuden – Daieisho needs a win to avoid joining the Darwin crew on day 15. He’s up against make-koshi Ryuden, who has lost 5 out of the last 6 matches. Ouch!

Hokutofuji vs Kagayaki – Hokutofuji, who is also suspected of nursing some form of injury, is already at double-digit losses, and will be trebuchet’d down the banzuke with a resounding, fleshy thud. But if he drops into the double-digits of Maegashira land, and can recover his health, he is going to be an absolute terror in the next tournament. If Kagayaki wins – a nice kachi-koshi for March. If he loses to Cap’n Stompy – that’s right, MOAR DARWIN!

Abi vs Endo – Abi beat the stuffing out of Shodai on day 13, only to find that he was mostly made of sawdust and burlap moments before the golem of Shodai hurled him down. That would be enough to shake any man to his soul, but he’s going to try to give Endo the business today. Yeah, Endo has a one track mind of that right hand frontal mawashi grip. But if Abi can breath some life into the embers of his sumo, its… MOAR DARWIN FOR ENDO! Abi holds a 7-2 career advantage.

Takarafuji vs Shodai – Takarafuji is already kachi-koshi, and he’s really done a solid job of earning it this tournament. But how far does he want to run up the score? At Maegashira 7, he’s already a candidate for the joi-jin. If he beats Shodai, he’s going to be in the thick of it next time. If Shodai wins today, he’s going home with a well deserved 8th win, and a retention of his Sekiwake rank. If not, well… its… DARWIN TIME!

Takakeisho vs Onosho – Readers know I have been looking forward to this match for over a year. Yes, I had to wait to the penultimate day to get my tadpole battle Royale, but here it is. I just wish that Takakeisho were in better condition. They are tied 2-2 across their career, but I am going to guess that Takakeisho takes Onosho apart, which means the Ozeki gets to play with the Darwin troopers. A loss and he is kadoban.

Hakuho vs Aoiyama – A word to Big Dan Aoiyama. Fire up the V-Twin and open the throttle. Yes, the boss is probably going to put you on the clay, but ride this one out hard and fast. Give him everything in your powerful, moving forward style. It’s what the fans want to see, and you just might get the job done.

Asanoyama vs Kakuryu – High-stakes match. A win here and I am going to guess that Asanoyama becomes worthy of consideration for Ozeki. Even though the discussed number is 12 (and it should be), the NSK may look at the banzuke and decide they need another Ozeki, stat. He has beaten Kakuryu before, so it’s possible. But Kakuryu of Haru 2020 is a focused, forceful Yokozuna who has ample skill and power to deal with this upstart from Toyama.

Osaka Day 13 Highlights

Thanks to some skill and a bit of luck, we have a 3 way tie going into the final weekend. In all likelihood, the yusho will come down to the final match on the final day of the tournament – a high stakes battle between the lone surviving Yokozuna. Although both of them are getting closer to the end of their careers on the dohyo, they have once again shown that nobody in the sport is even close to challenging them for dominance. Sure both of them have taken complete tournaments off, but there is not a soul right now that had the sumo to stand up to them in competition.

A hat tip to Takanosho, who took care of business today when Aoiyama made a huge mistake and fell into a bad habit, opening the door for Takanosho’s win, which Takanosho exploited with masterful effect. As a result, Big Dan picks up his second loss of Haru, and has allowed the Yokozuna to catch him, creating a 3 way tie for the lead. Barring some bizarre outcome of day 14, one of these 3 men will take home the hardware. But should calamity fall the leaders, former yusho winners Asanoyama and Mitakeumi are 1 loss behind, ready to engage in one last push for the cup. Exciting times to be a sumo fan!

Highlight Matches

Ikioi defeats Kotonowaka – Ikioi kept Kotonowaka in front of him, where his forward power could do the maximum good. Though youngster Kotonowaka put up a solid effort, Ikioi overpowered him and drove him out for the win, which was his 8th, giving him kahci-koshi in his home town basho. Sadly there was no crowd on hand to cheer him on. His kachi-koshi is all the more impressive given some of the physical problems that Ikioi has faced in the past year.

Shimanoumi defeats Ishiura – As I had expected, Ishiura is not quite at the same intensity that he had leading up to his 8th win. While this may disappoint some sumo fans, it’s really quite smart for Ishiura, who struggles quite a bit if he ranks much higher than this. Shimanoumi’s sumo was also spot on, reacting correctly to Ishiura’s hit and shift, and keeping the smaller more nimble rikishi from getting to the side. Shimanoumi improves to 7-6.

Meisei defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu has now lost 3 in a row, and is on a perilous course toward a Darwin match on day 15. Chiyotairyu attempted a hit and shift as well, but his bulk means that the entire gambit unfolded in slow motion, and Meisei had time to go to combini, get a cup of Joe, maybe some onigiri, and come back in time to grab Chiyotairyu by the mawashi and toss him out. Meisei improves to 6-7, and is another fine candidate for a Darwin match.

Chiyomaru defeats Tochiozan – Watching Tochiozan is just misery now. Tochiozan was lethargic, slow, lacking power and fighting spirit. He’s hurt and going through the motions, but he’s there. At least Chiyomaru picked up his 7th win today, and has a reasonable chance at a kachi-koshi. He faces Terutsuyoshi on day 14.

Sadanoumi defeats Daiamami – Sadanoumi got his right hand inside position at the tachiai, and went to work. Daiamami advanced, but could not finish Sadanoumi at the edge. Sadanoumi rallied and rolled into an uwatenage. Picking up his 5 win and handing Daiamami his make-koshi.

Kotoshogiku defeats Tochinoshin – Probably should have been a matta, as Tochinoshin left the shikiri-sen much earlier than Kotoshogiku. But Tochinoshin could not really generate much forward pressure, and Kotoshogiku quickly had his inside grip, and was on to the hug-n-chug. Kotoshogiku advances to 7-6, and Tochinoshin now make-koshi.

Takanosho defeats Aoiyama – Major consequences from this match. I fully expected Aoiyama to power up the V-Twin thrusting attack from the start, but instead he went into an attempt at a pull. Takanosho must have known this was coming, as he pushed into the pull the moment it started, driving Aoiyama back, shoving him over the west side tawara. Aoiyama’s loss drops him from sole ownership of the yusho lead, and Takanosho gets his 10th win.

Kiribayama defeats Kaisei – Kiribayama executes a nice hit and shift, getting to Kaisei’s right side. From here Kaisei has almost no avenue to attack or defend. Kiribayama pins him down, and prevents Kaisei from turning to face his opponent, and Kiribayama drives him out. Nice strategy today, Kiribayama! He improves to 7-6.

Tamawashi defeats Azumaryu – Tamawashi gets the inside position at the tachiai, with his hands on Azumaryu’s neck and face, and gets to work thrusting against Azumaryu’s chest. Unable to generate much response, he is forced to give up ground to try and recover, but Tamawashi has him beat. Azumaryu picks up his 8th loss, and joins Tamawashi in a losing record for Haru.

Nishikigi defeats Myogiryu – Its kind of shocking to see Myogiryu with so little power right now. Nishikigi quickly got his favored arm bar hold, and it seems Myogiryu had no answer. A step back, and a roll to the left and Nishikigi had a win via sukuinage, handing Myogiryu his 10th loss.

Onosho defeats Terutsuyoshi – Terutsuyoshi attempts a hit and shift, which would normally be likely to end Onosho’s part of the match. But it seems he really has made great strides in his balance and foot work. Faster than Terutsuyoshi could react, Onosho pivots into Terutsuyoshi’s shift, getting to his side. At that point, Terutsuyoshi is more or less a pliable practice toy, and Onosho smacks and shoves him about with great effect before pushing him from the dohyo. Complete domination by Onosho today after a failed opening gambit by Terutsuyoshi. Onosho improves to 8-5, and picks up his kachi-koshi. He will be back in the joi-jin for the next basho, and frankly I think this is a very exciting development for sumo.

Mitakeumi defeats Takarafuji – This may have seemed to be a very pedestrian, low-energy match, but it is in fact littered with brilliant, small details. First the tachiai. Mitakeumi is so damn low for such a large bodied person, I am not sure how he stays upright, but he puts all of that force right on Takarafuji’s chest. Showing outstanding reflexes, Takarafuji responds with a right hand ottsuke, while Mitakeumi unfolds his arms at the elbows (blunting the ottsuke and continuing the force to Takarafuji’s chest. It all happens in less than half a second, but damn! But Takarafuji is a master of defense, and traps Mitakeumi low with his arms extended, the Original Tadpole has no leverage, and no path to attack. Takarafuji attempts something akin to a hikkake, and Mitakeumi uses that change of grip to break free and attack. A moment later, he has forced Takarafuji out, and picks up his 10th win. Very nice technique from both men today.

Shohozan defeats Tokushoryu – Glad to see Shohozan pick up a win, but now both he and Hatsu yusho winner Tokushoryu have 10 losses. It’s a grim basho for some of these beloved veterans.

Okinoumi defeats Yutakayama – This match was 100% Okinoumi, as Yutakayama got tangled up and shut down early. Both men exit the match with 7-6 records, and possibly headed for Darwin matches on day 15.

Enho defeats Daieisho – The first match ended with both rikishi flying out of the ring, and the judges ruled a torinaoshi (rematch). In the second bout, Enho brought his best break dancing moves to the clay, and kept Daieisho batting at the empty Osaka air. In one step, Daieisho lost his balance, and Enho helped him fall out of the ring. Daieisho falls to 7-6 and is also probably headed for a Darwin match.

Endo defeats Kagayaki – Kagayaki could not keep Endo away from his mawashi, and some great hard placement by Endo gave him a grip and put him in charge of the match. Once it was best to chest. It was Endo’s sumo that controlled the match, and Kagayaki could not really respond. If there is a spot for Kagayaki to improve, it would be his yotsu-zumo. His Oshi is fantastic, his foot work excellent, and he clearly gives it his all. Both are 7-6 at the end of this match, and again we seem to have a lot of rikishi headed for Darwin.

Ryuden defeats Hokutofuji – Both are in sad shape this March, and now Hokutofuji has double digit losses. To me this can only mean some kind of injury, and it’s quite disappointing to fans, as he seemed to have his sumo together in January.

Shodai defeats Abi – Shodai’s super power seems to be able to take a beating and stay in the match. I knew people like this in my younger days, they could take punch after punch (Marine Corps, you see..) but not give in or fall down. Eventually the attacker loses control or rhythm, and they are wide open, and maybe a bit tired. The counter-attack in these situations is frequently rapid, brutal and final. Abi picks up his 8th loss, while Shodai remains on a path toward kachi-koshi.

Kakuryu defeats Takakeisho – The only offense Takakeisho could generate was an early pull down attempt on the second step after the tachiai. It was quite useless, and opened himself up to the Yokozuna’s offense. Moments later, Kakuryu landed a right hand shallow grip on Takakeisho’s mawashi, and that was all he needed for the win. Takakeisho fans, just resign yourself to a make-koshi this tournament. Kakuryu picks up win #11 and remains in the yusho hunt.

Hakuho defeats Asanoyama – Hakuho wasted no time going on the attack, but seemed to have a moment of poor balance right at the moment he won. To my eye, that bandaged right foot gave way, and he fell forward. Thankfully for him, he converted most of that forward energy into shoving Asanoyama out of the ring. Hakuho improves to 11-2 and remains tied for the lead.

Osaka Day 13 Preview

We go screaming into the final weekend of this tournament with the very real possibility of a double-digit Maegashira taking the cup on day 15. As has been said by sumo luminaries much more accomplished than myself, in this day—everyone is a contender. As lksumo has assured me many times, the schedule mostly goes by a well-understood formula, and that means that a lower-ranked rikishi can catch fire and run up a score high enough to take the cup, having never really been tested against the top-ranked men. This is also a function of the top-ranked men being too evenly matched to produce a score high enough to ensure that the cup remains in the named ranks.

As we set up for the last 3 days of this basho, it’s time to start trying to wonder who will suffer through the 7-7 matches on the final day. I call these “Darwin matches”, because only one survives with a winning record. Quite a few rikishi are on the perilous path that leads to a Darwin battle, so let’s see who can evade that outcome.

Haru Leaderboard

Aoiyama has sole possession of the lead in the race for the cup. He faces Takanosho on day 13.

Leader: Aoiyama
Chasers: Hakuho, Kakuryu, Asanoyama
Hunt Group: Mitakeumi ,Takanosho

3 matches remain

What We Are Watching Day 13

Kotonowaka vs Ikioi – The winner here picks up kachi-koshi today. Both have fought well, and both deserve it. I think whoever loses today is possibly going to find themselves in a Darwin match on day 15. Please, don’t let it be you, Ikioi.

Ishiura vs Shimanoumi – I am sure that Ishiura is quite happy to be going into the final weekend with 8 wins locked up. The question is, at Maegashira 12, does he really want to push for a big boost up the banzuke? He seems to do well around this rank, and running up the score enough to get him at the bottom of the joi-jin might not be a wise idea. Luckily, Shimanoumi has never lost to Ishiura, so maybe he can end up in a Darwin match on day 15.

Chiyotairyu vs Meisei – Chiyotairyu needs just one more win to get his 8. He has faded into week 2, losing 4 of his last 5. He has only fought Meisei once before, and he took the match. Good luck, Chiyotairyu!

Chiyomaru vs Tochiozan – Chiyomaru is very much on the Darwin path, but he has a chance to add a white start to his tally when he faces the miserable wreckage of Tochiozan. Normally, Tochiozan gives Chiyomaru the business (6-1), but he’s too beat up and injured now to pose much of a threat.

Sadanoumi vs Daiamami – Sadanoumi can dispense some sumo doom today if he can hand Daiamami his 8th loss and a make-koshi for Haru. He won their only prior match, and still seems to have some fighting spirit left.

Kotoshogiku vs Tochinoshin – Battle of the battered and broken former Ozeki. It’s like if your two favorite stuffed animals as a child got mangled in a horrific laundry accident, but hung around your bedroom anyhow because you were too sentimental to toss them out. A Tochinoshin loss today is make-koshi for him.

Takanosho vs Aoiyama – It’s a lot of weight to put on Takanosho—shutting down the yusho juggernaut that is Aoiyama. But that’s exactly who has gotten the nod to try his mettle on day 13. He and Aoiyama have a 3 match history that favors Takanosho 2-1. But right now, Big Dan’s V-Twin seems to be set to take him far, and I am not sure who might stop him from lifting the cup on Sunday with those enormous, pale, meaty arms.

Kaisei vs Kiribayama – The last time that Kaisei beat Kiribayama was in the multi-way playoff for the Juryo yusho during November of 2019. Ah, the good old days, when there was no plague loose in the world, and people got to go to the venue to watch sumo. But it may come down to Kaisei having his 8, and not wanting to run up the score, or risk injury. A win today would keep Kiribayama on track for a Darwin match on Sunday.

Azumaryu vs Tamawashi – Can Tamawashi muster enough genki energy to hand fellow Mongolian Azumaryu his make-koshi? Maybe…but an Azumaryu win today sets him on the path for inclusion in the round of Darwin matches we eagerly await on Sunday.

Myogiryu vs Nishikigi – These two miserable sots just need to hug it out. Luckily, Nishikigi’s sumo seems tailor-made for such a format, even if Myogiryu may find it distasteful. Both are already make-koshi, both need to just get past this basho, and for Nishikigi, he’s likely once again captain or at least boatswain of the Juryo barge of the dammed.

Terutsuyoshi vs Onosho – After a long and withering stretch of depressing matches, we get this lovely gem. One of these fine rikishi will exit the dohyo with a freshly minted kachi-koshi, and both of them deserve it. The loser is probably headed for Darwin with the rest of the condemned souls that are slated for the day 15 bloodletting. I expect a lot of intense action that will favor Terutsuyoshi early, and Onosho the longer it goes.

Takarafuji vs Mitakeumi – Both are kachi-koshi, but frankly, I really want to see Mitakeumi run up the score. At least 1 san’yaku slot will be open, and I would love to see the original tadpole return to the named ranks, and perhaps restart a bid to ascend to Ozeki this year.

Shohozan vs Tokushoryu – Another dry husk of a match between two grizzled veterans sporting deep losing records before the final weekend. Sure, Shohozan has a 6-3 career lead, but this one is just more misery.

Okinoumi vs Yutakayama – Yutakayama has never beaten Okinoumi in 3 attempts, and a win today would be yet another marker that the early leader of the Freshman cohort is back in business. He shares Maegashira 3 with Mitakeumi, so if there ends up being only 1 San’yaku slot, he may have to settle for a modest bump up the Maegashira ranks.

Daieisho vs Enho – Daieisho need just 1 more win to get his 8th, and Enho is looking hurt and dispirited now. Clearly he is headed back down the banzuke to calmer waters, but how far will he drop? They have split their prior 2, and with the abundance of rikishi now shutting down Enho’s pixie magic, there is ample footage of Enho losses for Daieisho to review.

Kagayaki vs Endo – Both of these mainstays are dangerously close to the Darwin path, with Endo serving as vanguard of the Darwin sacrifices marching toward day 15. They share a 5-5 career record, so this one is going to come down to Endo getting his frontal grip at the tachiai, and Kagayaki’s sometimes impressive footwork.

Hokutofuji vs Ryuden – Another match of disappointment: both of them are solid fighters, both are make-koshi, and both just need to finish the tournament without additional injuries. I am sure Hokutofuji will show up with more fighting spirit (he always does), but it’s a mystery if it will do him any good.

Abi vs Shodai – In spite of beating Hakuho on day 12, Shodai has to pick up 2 more wins for a kachi-koshi at his highest-ever rank. More likely, he too is on the Darwin path, and we may see him face off on day 15 in a 7-7 battle to survive. A loss today would be make-koshi for Abi, and a further slide down the banzuke.

Takakeisho vs Kakuryu – Takakeisho starts his tour through hell. Needing 2 wins to escape kadoban, he comes up against Yokozuna Kakuryu, who honestly is fighting better than Hakuho right now. He has beaten the Yokozuna once in their 4 career matches, but Takakeisho’s injuries may mean that Kakuryu makes fast work of the Grand Tadpole today.

Hakuho vs Asanoyama – I can’t even tell you how eager I am for this match. To make the score for Ozeki promotion, Asanoyama needs to beat a Yokozuna. Given the baloney sumo from Hakuho on day 12, I expect him to be brash, hasty and probably careless on day 13. That gives Asanoyama a sliver of an opening. We know Hakuho loves to fight high skill yotsu-zumo rikishi, and Asanoyama is that in spades. But if he gives Asanoyama his chance, he may find himself surprised. Good luck, Asanoyama!