Here we go! Final act of the November Tokyo basho is ready to start. In the final five days, we sort the make-kosh from the kachi-koshi, and we crown a yusho winner. Right now the race for the Emperor’s Cup is between the top, and the bottom man on the banzuke. Ozeki 1 East Takakeisho, and Maegashira 17 East Shimanoumi. As odd as that may read, it’s not atypical for sumo this past 18 months, as we see the Yokozuna slowly fade away, and it seems that nearly anyone can credibly compete for the yusho right now. Given the spate of wins from the bottom recently, I do expect the scheduling committee to gradually turn up the intensity on Shimanoumi’s schedule if he continues to win. Frankly, I am hoping he draws Terunofuji soon.

On that subject, as act 3 wears on we will see increasingly large rank gaps in the torikumi, as they pair rikishi with similar records, or with interesting history up to round out the schedule. Let’s take a look at the leaderboard!

November Leaderboard

Unlike Aki, the leader group is fairly narrow, and well formed going into act 3. There is a chance of a big brawl at the end of both Takakeisho and Shimanoumi hit the clay between now and the final day.

Leaders – Takakeisho, Shimanoumi
Chasers – Terunofuji, Takarafuji, Ryuden
Hunt Group – Chiyonokuni

5 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 11

Chiyotairyu vs Ishiura – Ishiura comes back from Juryo for a one-day visit. If he can keep the winning record, he just might find himself back in the top division just in time to be part of Hakuho’s dohyo-iri troupe. Chiyotairyu has been doing a tremendous job of creating off-speed (for him) sumo this basho, and I suspect this could be a fun match.

Hoshoryu vs Shimanoumi – Co-leader Shimanoumi goes up against Hoshoryu, who has only fought him once before, and lost. Hoshoryu has been fighting better since the start of act 2, and I am hoping he can give Shimanoumi a hard fight today.

Akua vs Kaisei – First time ever match, and I hope that Kaisei can get a proper tachiai in today. The matta-tachiai from day 10 is a clear and obvious dud. Both are 5-5, and I suspect at least one fo them may end up in danger of a day 15 “Darwin” match.

Yutakayama vs Ichinojo – Can you sense a theme here yet? They have matching dismal 3-7 records, and the loser is going to get a fresh, new make-koshi to take home at the end of the day. I am not sure who I favor here, as both men are fighting well below the abilities.

Sadanoumi vs Enho – Again matching records at 2-8, so both are make-koshi. I would defer to lksumo for any forecast on if either of them are at risk for demotion, but I think they need every win they can manage right now. I am hoping for a continued Enho resurgence.

Chiyonokuni vs Meisei – Chiyonokuni has absorbed 3 losses thus far, but he’s not completely out of the yusho hunt. He has to continue to win, and today’s match against Meisei would be kachi-koshi should he prevail.

Tokushoryu vs Chiyoshoma – Chiyoshoma holds a 8-2 career advantage over Tokushoryu, who showed on day 10 how once you get him off balance, he’s falls to pieces. We have not had a Chiyoshoma henka in a few days, maybe today is the day…

Kotonowaka vs Terutsuyoshi – Terutsuyoshi is now make-koshi, but now he needs to rack up wins to prevent too large of a drop down the banzuke. Kotonowaka lost their only prior match, and it may be a good day for some spicy, small-man sumo.

Aoiyama vs Kotoeko – Big Dan is one loss away from a make-koshi. He’s looked a bit flustered and helpless for many of his matches this November. I think that he is ripe for another loss if compact powerhouse Kotoeko can keep outside of Aoiyama’s bludgeon zone.

Takarafuji vs Ryuden – Both are just one win behind the leaders, and both are kachi-koshi. But only one of them will still be in striking range for the yusho at the end of this match. Takarafuji holds a 6-1 career lead, but this was all before Ryuden unleashed his shiri-zumo. Will Takarafuji be able to defend against Ryuden’s “four way hips”?

Hokutofuji vs Endo – Back to the today’s theme – matching scores. We have both rikishi at 6-4, and both of them are going to at it with gusto. I have a new appreciation for Hokutofuji’s stamina following his day 10 double header against Takarafuji. The career record of 8-6 slightly favors Endo.

Tamawashi vs Daieisho – Daieisho is one win away from a kachi-koshi, and even though his opponent Tamawashi is nowhere near his former power, he is still a tough opponent. Tamawashi holds a 8-5 lead in the series, and I think we may see both rikishi end the day at 7-4.

Onosho vs Okinoumi – Onosho has battled back from a cold 0-4 start to have a shot at a kaich-koshi, if he an win 4 of his last 5 matches. Okinoumi only needs 3 of his last 5, but he’s still going to need to push to get there. He is on a cold streak, losing 4 of his last 5 after a strong start.

Kagayaki vs Wakatakakage – Wakatakakage is already make-koshi, and I think there may be a chance for him to make a point about being a serious contender for the future if he can put Kagayaki on the clay today. Wakatakakage will need to overcome Kagayaki’s excellent defensive footwork, but for attack power, Wakatakakage has an advantage.

Kiribayama vs Tochinoshin – Kiribayama is at a horrible 1-9 right now, and he’s ripe for a big, potent boot down the banzuke. Tochinoshin can still make it to 8, if he wins 3 out of his last 5. The two have split their prior matches (1-1).

Terunofuji vs Myogiryu – Terunofuji can hand Myogiryu his make-koshi today with a win, and I think it’s a pretty likely outcome. The Kaiju holds a 10-3 career record over Myogiryu, and Terunofuji is in his best fighting form in years.

Tobizaru vs Takanosho – Tobizaru came into the November basho, full of bravado and lofty goals. I think the first 10 days have been quite the reality shock for the flying monkey, and he is now at the doorstep of a make-koshi. Takanosho holds a 5-1 career record over Tobizaru, so I wish him a good first step, and an opportunity to strike.

Mitakeumi vs Takayasu – What to make of this match.. Ugh. Both of them are under-performing, and I think that I slightly favor Takayasu, but neither one of them are fighting particularly well this November. Takayasu leads their career series 14-6.

Takakeisho vs Kotoshoho – First time match between these two, and I am going to guess that it will be Takakeisho’s to control. I urge him to be patient and cautious and pick up his 10th win.

What a bloody fantastic day of sumo! The “good” Enho made a very welcome return, Ryuden still has the boogie in his butt, and you can take your pick between Takarafuji and Takayasu for “holy smokes”. We like to talk about the really good rikishi coming into a match with plan A/B and sometimes C (or if you are Hakuho, all the way up to H, naturally). Today it was clear that we were going to plan 🤷 in several cases, as rikishi ran out of ideas and just threw everything they could into these contests.

Highlight Matches

Akua defeats Akiseyama – With the banzuke gap back, we get a daily visitor from Juryo, and today is Akiseyama. He and Akua hae been through this dance a few times, and today it took the form of a mawashi battle. Akua prevailed for his 4th straight win after a fairly cold start. Both end the match with 5-4 records.

Kotonowaka defeats Hoshoryu – Two great mawashi battles in a row! Hoshoryu had advantage early, but could not keep Kotonowaka from setting up a reciprocal grip. Once Kotonowaka had his left hand outside sashi set up, the match favored Kotonowaka, but he could not quite overpower Hoshoryu. The finish came as Kotonowaka shifted his grip, and Hoshoryu responded with a throw. It seems Hoshoryu touched down slightly ahead and the match went to Kotonowaka. Wow!

Kaisei defeats Ichinojo – Let’s make it a three-peat! These two hulks lock up chest to chest, with both taking a left hand outside grip. They stand around. They stand around some more. Kaisei tries to left Ichinojo. They stand around again. Kaisei flexes again, but this time can move forward and takes the win.

Shimanoumi defeats Yutakayama – Yutakayama took the inside position, and like too many matches this basho, started strong but could not maintain his advantage. With Shimanoumi pinned at the tawara, he pulls a Wakaichiro-style spin, ends up behind Yutakayama, and forces him out. Thats the 8th win for Shimanoumi, who is kachi-koshi, and remains in the yusho race from the last slot in the banzuke,

Chiyotairyu defeats Sadanoumi – No low velocity tachiai from Chiyotairyu today, straight forward at power and a single combo was all it took to drive Sadanoumi and his damaged undercarriage from the ring. Chiyotairyu improves to 6-3.

Chiyonokuni defeats Tokushoryu – Tokushoryu has surprising lateral agility for a man of his bulk, and at least twice he put Chiyonokuni perilously off balance during the match by evading to the side. Chiyonokuni kept his feet and kept up the pressure to drive Tokushoryu from the ring, advancing to 7-2, and giving Tokushoryu a bloody nose in the process.

Chiyoshoma defeats Terutsuyoshi – Chiyoshoma employs a leap to the side, a masterful henka against a target that could have (and should have) done the same in exchange. Sadly no flying double henka today, just a laterally rolling throw against Terutsuyoshi who takes a tumble for his 7th loss.

Enho defeats Aoiyama – Now that Enho is safely make-koshi with a perfect 0-8 record, he fires up the sumo machine. He swoops left at the tachiai, gets both arms around Aoiyama’s meaty right leg and runs him across the tawara. That’s more like it! Double bonus points because Aoiyama’s expression was priceless.

Endo defeats Meisei – Meisei succeeded in blocking Endo’s opening frontal grip move, but found himself all the way back against the bales. A single combo pushing attack, and he was out. Endo improves to 6-3.

Ryuden defeats Tochinoshin – Ryuden continues to employ his new wiggle, and his highly energized posterior once again delivers. Perhaps he has invented a new form, some kind of shiri-zumo? Regardless, it seems that the “boogie” remains firmly ensconced in Ryuden’s butt, and it’s looking for wins. Ryuden gets a double inside grip shortly after the tachiai, while Tochinoshin tries to lift him any way he can. But the power of Ryuden’s butt, could not be undone. Tochinoshin tries to throw him, but the throw collapses and Ryuden gets his 7th win.

Tamawashi defeats Kotoeko – Kotoeko was too high at the tachiai, and Tamawashi thundered forward, blasting him from the ring. Kotoeko has yet to find a way to win against Tamawashi in 4 attempts. Tamawashi improves to 6-3.

Takarafuji defeats Okinoumi – They went chest to chest at the tachiai, both locking into a left hand outside grip. Takarafuji had superior body position, and excellent (naturally) defensive foot placement, controlling the center of the ring. They push, they struggle, they lean, but neither one can do anything moderately offense related. This style favors Takarafuji, who is draining whatever stamina Okinoumi may have brought to the match. Okinoumi realizes the clock is running out, lunges forward to get his right hand on Takarafuji’s mawashi, and drives forward. But Takarafuji pulls out a win with a deft pivot at the edge, sending Okinoumi to the clay. What a match!

Hokutofuji defeats Kagayaki – Hokutofuji came in low at the tachiai, connected with gusto and immediately pressed upward, taking Kagayaki’s center of gravity up, up and away. Kagayaki rallies, and it Hokutofuji’s turn to show us his best Wakaichiro impression, spinning away to re-engage. With all structure of the match completely abandoned, the two just throw the kitchen sink at each other (call it plan 🤷). Attack the face, attack the body, attack the neck, attack each others dreams and life goals! But Hokutofuji’s philosophical armor is stronger, and he reaches into Jungian space, realizes “You are what you do, not what you say you’ll do” and wins both the argument and the match.

Daieisho defeats Wakatakakage – Daieisho with a masterful tachiai, transitioning into a running combo of thrusts directly to Wakatakakage’s chest. He had no chance at all and finds himself out. Daieisho improves to 6-3.

Onosho defeats Kiribayama – Kiribayama’s worked the tachiai to get his hands up and around Onosho’s head. But rather than execute at once, he waits two long beats before he tries the pull. This gives Onosho ample time to shift his balance, absorb the pull and run Kiribayama out. That’s loss number 8 for Kiribayama, who falls to 1-8.

Takayasu defeats Terunofuji – Whoo boy! Both of these guys stayed surprisingly low for having such massive bodies. Takayasu got an early advantage, give Terunofuji a massive push, but could not finish him. Once again the match devolved into plan 🤷, and these two switched to a flat out brawl. Neither one of them is going down or out until Takayasu circles behind Terunofuji and applies a mighty shove. Wow, second loss for Terunofuji, and Takayasu improves to 5-4.

Kotoshoho defeats Takanosho – Kotoshoho really controlled this match well, and never let Takanosho set up much offense. He picks up his 5th win.

Myogiryu defeats Mitakeumi – Two false starts by Mitakeumi frankly robbed him of any chance at timing a powerful tachiai. When the two finally did get off correctly, Myogiryu quickly drove Mitakeumi from the ring, dropping him to 6-3.

Tobizaru defeats Takakeisho – Tobizaru managed to be the one who put dirt on the lone surviving Ozeki. I really liked his oshi-technique this match, look where he is putting his hands, right at the deltoid. This seems to somehow decrease Takakeisho’s power output, and for some reason he can’t really blast Tobizaru around the ring, pengo style. It’s clear the Ozeki is getting frustrated, and at the moment he gets his hand inside, and sets up his “half wave” attack with his left hand on Tobizaru’s chest, Tobizaru gives way, backs up and Takakeisho gets a face full of clay and salt. Wow!

Lower Division Yusho Races

Yesterday, we saw Wakakaneko’s narrow escape as he kept his Jonokuchi title hopes alive. Today, he will face Etsunohana, a journeyman grappler who’s cracked into Makushita and has spent the past two tournaments kyujo. Etsunohana’s experience and talent will be a real test and the bout should be a treat to cap off the fun in Jonokuchi.

Jonidan has a further five Darwin bouts for the large group of men with yusho hopes. Of those, I’m paying close attention to Kenho as he faces Shoryudo. Kenho’s pusher-thruster skills should carry the day. He should get a real boost up the banzuke after this tournament. We’re also watching Hagiwara as he faces Yurikiri. If Hagiwara can maintain solid footwork and avoid falling for hatakikomi, he should prevail, particularly if he can force a grapple.

Up in Sandanme, Takeoka will take on the hilariously named, Imafuku. I expect a quick brawl with Takeoka prevailing, particularly if Imafuku gets caught too far forward. I’m on the lookout in the Kotonoumi and Taiyo battle for the same thing but Kotonoumi has to be the favorite. But the bout to watch is Hokuseiho versus Kaizen as Hokuseiho continues his impressive run.

In Makushita, all eyes will be on the Roga/Naya bout. It’s an interesting contrast of styles here with Roga preferring the belt and Naya preferring a brawl. Naya’s best chance will be to keep Roga away. If Roga gets inside, Naya will likely lose.

Juryo’s yusho race is crazy with nineteen wrestlers in striking distance at this early stage. Azumaryu, a former maegashira, will face another former maegashira in Daishomaru. While Ura will take on Makushita visitor Shiraishi, Herouth’s favorite Chiyonoumi will battle Hakuyozan. Jokoryu vs Tsurugisho and Midorifuji is paired off against Nishikigi. I hope Jokoryu will distinguish himself early this week and run the table. It would be a treat to finally see him back in Makuuchi. Speaking of…

What We’re Watching in Makuuchi

Akiseyama vs Akua: Akiseyama is having a great tournament and is well on his way to kachi-koshi. If he can pick up three more wins this week, he’ll be a lock for promotion into makuuchi. Standing in his way is Akua, fresh off his dominating win over Enho and back on track to preserving his own rank after a rough start. If Akua’s gaining confidence in his grappling skills, Akiseyama will be eager to test. This is a close call but I’d give the edge to Akua based on the confidence from his recent run of three wins in the top division and the fact that despite his preference for pushing-thrusting, he wins by yorikiri three times as often as he loses to it.

Hoshoryu vs Kotonowaka: Hoshoryu has not been able to solve Kotonowaka in their previous two bouts and I think Kotonowaka will keep the streak alive. I think he’ll try hard to keep Hoshoryu off his belt, but even if Hoshoryu gets inside, the Sadogatake man is rightfully confident on the belt.

Ichinojo vs Kaisei: Both giants will be motivated to win today since they’re both rather low on the banzuke and have quite a bit of work to do to come close to a kachi-koshi, never mind actually achieve a winning record. Ichinojo’s got the edge here, though, as Ricardo has found Ichinojo a difficult puzzle to solve. Expect a lot of leaning.

Yutakayama vs Shimanoumi: Shimanoumi’s apparently got banzuke position on his side, as well as the lackluster recent performances from Yutakayama. Shimanoumi’s also a confident oshi-master but if he really wants to freak out Yutakayama, he should go for the belt.

Sadanoumi vs Chiyotairyu: Sadanoumi needs to turn things around fast and Chiyotairyu’s been strong but beatable. I expect Sadanoumi to pull off the win by disrupting Chiyotairyu’s thrusts.

Tokushoryu vs Chiyonokuni: Chiyonokuni will do his best to keep Tokushoryu away from his belt. The Hatakikomi artist will have a difficult time with Tokushoryu but persistence should pay off, unless he gets careless again.

Chiyoshoma vs Terutsuyoshi: I really want to see a double henka.

Aoiyama vs Enho: Aoiyama’s tsuppari was very effective today and if engaged tonight, he should blast poor Enho into the nearest shimpan. If I were wearing a black hakama, I’d crouch or sit seiza and be ready.

Meisei vs Endo: This could be a great yotsu battle between two specialists. Or, Meisei could do his homework and realize his chances are better against Endo if he keeps him running and away from his mawashi. In matches decided by oshidashi, Meisei wins at a 2:1 clip. Either way, it should be a fun match.

Tochinoshin vs Ryuden: Tochinoshin’s been finding ways to win lately that don’t involve a belt. This will be particularly useful against Puff the Twerking Dragon.

Kotoeko vs Tamawashi: This should be a fun brawl. I’ll give Tamawashi a slight edge here but will be happy with an outcome that doesn’t involve kotenage.

Takarafuji vs Okinoumi: Takarafuji is off to his best start in four years. I’d love to keep this going but he’ll face a big challenge in Okinoumi. The pair have quite the rivalry with Uncle Takara carrying a slight 2 win edge in 22 meetings. Let’s keep it going! Stay in the hunt!

Kagayaki vs Hokutofuji: Well, I don’t do well predicting these two. I do predict an oshi battle with Kagayaki being a bit more calm and Hokutofuji having had a few too many cups of coffee. Slow and steady wins the race, right? So Kagayaki should squeak out a close one, despite being behind in their head-to-head.

Daieisho vs Wakatakakage: Wakatakakage needs to turn things on if he wants to remain in the joi. But Daieisho shocked the world and sure impressed me the way he did not panic when faced with an angry Kaiju. Daieish-oshi will bounce Wakatakatakakakakage as revenge for testing our patience with the tongue-twister.

Kiribayama vs Onosho: Sad face Emoji. Anyway I slice it, I’ll still have a sad face emoji at the end of this bout but I think Kiribayama will join Enho as makekoshi.

Terunofuji vs Takayasu: Sometimes it feels like Terunofuji’s losses come in clusters. I don’t think it will happen this time, though. He’s wiser than before and driven to be Ozeki again. Wait, which one am I talking about? Yes, they’re both driven to come back but I have to give the edge to Kaiju.

Kotoshoho vs Takanosho: Kotoshoho will deploy hatakikomi as a weapon against Takanosho, who’s rather susceptible to the tactic. It should be a fun fight!

Mitakeumi vs Myogiryu: Mitakeumi fought well against Tobizaru yesterday and I think the momentum will continue. Myogiryu, on the other hand, gets a bit down-in-the-dumps like Endo. I hope he can turn it around but against Mitakeumi that’s a tall order.

Takakeisho vs Tobizaru: Takakeisho will bounce Tobizaru and will be Yokozuna by March.