The official rankings for the November tournament will be released Sunday or Monday, depending on where you are in the world. Fun fact—the banzuke is actually drawn up at a meeting on the Wednesday after the previous basho concludes, but it remains a closely guarded secret for several weeks; only the promotions to Juryo and any Ozeki and Yokozuna promotions are announced right away. In advance of the real thing, here is my guess. Scroll down for a few comments, which build on my banzuke preview post from a few weeks ago.
As mentioned in the preview post, I view K1w/M1e as a coin flip between Takayasu and Hakuoho. Further down, Atamifuji, Onokatsu, and Churanoumi could be rearranged in any order. There are huge gaps at M8e and M9w, which I’ve opted to fill with Ichiyamamoto and Tobizaru, though one could easily swap them. And there are many plausible solutions for the area from M11 to M14. In particular, Kotoshoho and Gonoyama are major wildcards.
The Aki basho provided a lot of great storylines, culminating with a long-awaited showdown between two Yokozuna on the final day. With the results in the books, let’s take our preliminary early look at how they’re likely to reshuffle the rankings for the Kyushu basho.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
No changes here. After finishing with identical 13-2 records, the two Yokozuna will retain their spots, with Onosato on the East side and Hoshoryu on the West, though a different result in the playoff would have caused them to swap places if the precedent from the last such playoff in 2009, won by Asashoryu against Hakuho, is still valid. And Kotozakura (9-5-1) remains our sole Ozeki for now, as both Sekiwake disappointingly posted losing records and will have to restart their quests from scratch.
Sekiwake
Both Wakatakakage and Kirishima went 6-9, which, Takayasu’s exceptional treatment after May notwithstanding, should see both back in the rank-and-file in November. So we need two new Sekiwake. K1w Aonishiki posted his 4th straight 11-4 record, which would have been good enough to force an extra Sekiwake slot if one hadn’t come open, and he will easily take the East Sekiwake rank. His 22 wins over 2 basho while ranked M1e and Komusubi have opened the conversation about his Ozeki chances after November; I won’t add to the speculation here other than to note that 11 wins will be needed at a minimum, and that it may take a very impressive result (yusho?) for the JSA not to say “well done, kid, now do it again in January.” The West Sekiwake slot should go to Oho, who went 10-5 at M2w and last held the third-highest rank in March; this will mark the second time he goes straight from maegashira to Sekiwake, bypassing Komusubi, a rank he’s never held.
Komusubi
This is where things start to get tricky. There are three plausible candidates for two spots, and little chance that a third slot will be created. The first candidate is M7e Takanosho, whose 12-3 record gives him a really strong case. The other two are M2e Hakuoho (8-7) and an incumbent, K1e Takayasu (7-8). Both mathematically deserve to be ranked M1e, and exact precedents are few, not recent, and conflicting. It’s not impossible that both could be ranked Komusubi at the expense of Takanosho, but this seems highly unlikely, so we can pencil in Takanosho at K1e and then flip a coin to see whether they opt to give Hakuoho his long-awaited sanyaku debut or demote Takayasu only half a rank, allowing him to stay at Komusubi for the 4th consecutive basho despite two losing records in three tournaments.
Makuuchi Demotions and Promotions
Two top-division wrestlers are guaranteed to be demoted to Juryo—M16w Nishikigi (2-13) and absent M12e Takerufuji. Their spots will go to J3w Nishikifuji (11-4), returning for the first time since his March injury, and J1w Oshoumi (9-6), making his Makuuchi debut. There’s one more incumbent with a (barely) demotable record: newcomer M17w Hitoshi (7-8). The Juryo wrestler with the third-strongest promotion case is our old friend J2w Chiyoshoma (9-6), who dropped to division two after his 1-14 performance in July. I think that his case is good enough that they’ll make the exchange, but this is far from certain. There are two more Juryo men who posted records that are numerically promotable: J5w Fujiseiun (10-5) and the division rookie and yusho winner J11w Asahakuryu (13-2). Unfortunately for them, it looks like there’s no room at the inn: the incumbent next-closest to demotion is J13e Meisei (5-10), whose rank and record place him right at M18e, so he should be safe by the skin of his teeth.
Banzuke Conundrums
There are some tricky decisions in addition to deciding who gets K1w. Several high-ranked maegashira, including Gonoyama, Kotoshoho, Abi, Ichiyamamoto and Atamifuji, posted double-digit losing records, making it tricky to decide how far to drop them. There’s also an unusually high number of wrestlers with 7-8 records (10, one short of the record), and we have to decide who stays in place and who drops, and by how much. There’s also a “hole” in the middle of the maegashira ranks that will require rather extreme over-promotions and under-demotions to fill. If you want to try your hand at this, see if you can figure out whom to place at M8e and M9w. In general, with the two Yokozuna and a handful of other high-performing wrestlers racking up a lot of wins, the rest of the rikishi have to soak up the losses, so this is going to be a “lucky” banzuke, with almost everyone ranked above where their rank-record combination would suggest.
Juryo Demotions and Promotions
Here, we have a lot more certainty. The promotions from Makushita to Juryo have been announced, with Kitanowaka and Wakanosho returning to the paid ranks and Nagamura (now Himukamaru) and Goshima (now Fujiryōga) making their salaried debuts. You can read more about their journeys in my Makushita posts. Takakento just missed out and will try again, probably from the very top rank, to earn a return exactly two years after a knee injury dropped him from Juryo to Sandanme.
The corresponding demotions are not announced, but we can be certain about three of them and reasonably confident in the fourth. J10w Miyanokaze (3-12) will return to Makushita after three basho in Juryo. Absent Endo will also drop, and it’s not clear whether he will attempt a comeback from what sounds like surgeries on both knees. And of course we already know that Takarafuji has chosen retirement over demotion. The most likely 4th demotion is J13e Kyokukaiyu (6-9), whose first sekitori basho was not a success. Assuming they do the math right, J14e Shiden (7-8) should be just barely safe, but you never know with this banzuke committee.
The full banzuke will be announced on October 27, two weeks before the start of the Kyushu basho, and I’ll try to post my full banzuke guess closer to that time. Meanwhile, let me know what you think in the comments.
After the Nagoya basho, I reviewed the performance of the wrestlers who debuted at Ms60 under the Makushita tsukedashi system after it was changed at the end of 2023. Let’s take a brief look at how our protagonists fared at Aki.
Winning records
After the blazing start to his career, M6w Kusano hit a bit of a wall in upper Makuuchi but won his final bout to finish 8-7, posting his 10th winning record in 10 basho. He will be rewarded with yet another career-high rank, at which he should face a full slate of sanyaku opponents. J4w Mita got off to a fast 7-0 start and looked like he could improve on his 11-4 July yusho and easily earn promotion, but he went 2-6 the rest of the way and finished 9-6, which will bump him up but won’t be enough to make Makuuchi. Ms5w Goshima (just renamed Fujiryoga) took full advantage of his rank just inside the promotion zone, going 6-1 to earn sekitori promotion after only four basho; his only loss was in a hard-fought belt bout with former maegashira Kitanowaka. Ms22e Hanaoka, who debuted in May, went 4-3 to post his third-straight kachi-koshi. The most recent debutant, Ms40w Ryusho, finished with his second-straight 5-2 record. And Sd26e Kazuma, who got injured in his first basho in July 2024, continued his comeback by adding the Sandanme yusho to the Jonokuchi yusho he claimed in May; his record during his return is now 20-1, and he should be ranked right around Ms15 in November. Finally, as a bonus, there’s Ms34w Ikarigata, Fujinokawa’s brother. He debuted as a Sandanme tsukedashi in January, went 6-1 in each of his two fourth-division basho, had a 3-4 setback in March in his first Makushita appearance, but has since recovered with consecutive 5-2 scores which should see him rise to around Ms20.
Losing Records
J12w Asasuiryu (the brother of Asakoryu; both started their careers under their family name Ishizaki) went 7-8 in his sekitori debut. He did do just enough to earn a second chance in Juryo; in fact, he’s likely to stay at the same rank. Ms6w Fukuzaki, who debuted alongside heya-mate Goshima and had kept pace with him until this basho, hit the single-digit Makushita wall hard, finishing with a 2-5 record that’ll send him ten or so ranks lower to regroup. And Ms9e Matsui, the first in this group to debut back in March 2024, posted his second make-koshi in his second basho in the single digits, going 3-4. He’s still only 20, and on the small side at 118 kg, so he has time to develop.
Absences
Ms14e Gyotoku looked like a beast in his first two basho, with a combined 11-3 record. He lost a hard-fought bout to Kotokenryu on Day 2, and then failed to appear for his scheduled Day 4 bout. I just rewatched his Day 2 loss, and there was no sign of injury. The only information I could find on Sumo Forum was that he had apparently been sick before the tournament, and may still not have been feeling well enough to continue. Hopefully we’ll see him back and fully fit in November; he was ranked high enough that even a winless record won’t drop him out of the division. Finally, Sd30w Kakueizan (originally Urayama) never fought in July, apparently sustaining a knee injury in training right before the tournament. He did not appear in September, and I haven’t seen any news about the timeline for his return.
The yusho was decided today. Ms50 Daiyusho, who’s never been ranked above Ms25, was no pushover, using a strong tachiai to drive back Ms20 Shimazuumi—a former maegashira on the road back from injury. Shimazuumi resisted, reversed the field, and chased Daiyusho around the ring before dispatching him by oshitaoshi as both tumbled off the dohyo. I guess Daiyusho was a pushover after all. I’ll be here all week, folks. The yusho is Shimazuumi’s first in any division, and it should see him rise well into the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone. Daiyusho’s consolation prize should be a new career-high rank.
Here’s how things stand in the promotion zone:
The promotion order is roughly as follows: Kitanowaka, Nagamura, Otsuji, Wakanosho, Goshima, Takakento. The contenders are taking turns visiting Juryo in potential “exchange bouts.” Today, the visitors were Kitanowaka and Takakento, who both lost. This doesn’t really affect Kitanowaka, who is guaranteed to be first in the promotion queue and will return to the paid ranks, but it at least temporarily bumps Takakento to the end of the line, as any of the remaining quartet of contenders will be ahead of him with a win. Nagamura and Otsuji will take their turns tomorrow, with Wakanosho and Goshima presumably slotted in on senshuraku.
In Juryo, absent Endo will be demoted, and J10w Miyanokaze (3-10) now has a demotable record. Kyokukaiyu, Shiden, and Takarafuji need to win out to be safe, while Tsurugisho, Nishinoryu, and Hakuyozan need one apiece. Tomorrow’s action pits Nagamura against Miyanokaze and Otsuji against Shiden.
