Here’s what to look for on the final day.

The Yusho Race

Only the two final bouts matter: Aonishiki (11-3) vs. Kotozakura and the Yokozuna clash between Onosato (11-3) and Hoshoryu (11-3). A win by Aonoshiki gets him a spot in a playoff, while a loss eliminates him from contention. His Ozeki chances may also hang in the balance—the shimpan department has announced that they’ll hold a special meeting to discuss a potential promotion after the basho. The head-to-head favors the Sekiwake 2-1. The outcome of the last regulation bout will either determine the other playoff participant or the outright winner. The head-to-head in regulation favors Hoshoryu 7-1, with Onosato also winning their most recent meeting in the September playoff.

Sanyaku

K1e Takanosho (5-9) will vacate his spot. S1w Oho (6-8) and K1w Takayasu (7-7) both need final-day wins to stay in the named ranks. And as discussed above, there is a chance that Aonishiki’s spot could open up via promotion. So we could have anywhere between one and four new sanyaku members. M2e Kirishima (10-4) should be a lock for the first open spot, regardless of his day 15 result. The other contenders are M2w Wakamotoharu (8-6), M5e Yoshinofuji (9-5), M3w Ura (8-6), and perhaps M8e Ichiyamamoto (10-4). Yoshinofuji fights Takayasu tomorrow in what looks like an exchange bout. Kirishima faces Ura, and Wakamotoharu takes on Ichiyamamoto.

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

Since Andy asked:

• Makuuchi demotion queue: Meisei, Shonannoumi, Sadanoumi, Oshoumi, Asakoryu.
• Juryo promotion queue: Asahakuryu, Asanoyama, Hatsuyama, Kotoeiho, Fujiseiun, Daiseizan.

Meisei, Shonannoumi, and Sadanoumi are fully booked on the Juryo barge, with nonrefundable tickets. In their place, Asanoyama will make his long-awaited return to the top division, where he’ll be joined by his heya-mate Asahakuryu and by Hatsuyama, both of whom will be making their Makuuchi debuts. The final two spots will almost certainly go to the winners of the two day 15 crossover bouts that pit Kotoeiho against Asakoryu and Oshoumi against Fujiseiun. Daiseizan has rapidly dropped from first to 6th in the promotion queue and should be out of luck even with a win—which would be a rare miss for a 10-5 J3, but there’s no room at the inn.

The yusho race has been decided. Kazuma accepted Ryusho’s invitation to make the final a yotsu bout, with both fighters going for an inside left. Kazuma wrapped up his opponent and moved him toward the tawara. Ryusho used his lateral mobility to avoid immediate defeat, but Kazuma kept him centered and powered him over the edge to win by yorikiri. Kazuma took full advantage of his Ms15w ranking—the last spot in the extended promotion zone—to earn a fast-track Juryo promotion. His career record is now 31-2, not counting absences, and he should be an early favorite for the Hatsu Juryo yusho.

A bit of bonus coverage: Kaki won the Sandanme yusho, becoming only the 8th rikishi to start his career with three straight yusho. We’ll see Kaki in Makushita, and hopefully in the yusho bracket, in January. Something about his build and style reminds me of Kusano/Yoshinofuji.

Of the ten rikishi ranked in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone, one retired (Endo), and six others are make-koshi. Ms1w Kyokukaiyu (4-2) and Ms3w Dewanoryu (5-1) are set to join Kazuma in Juryo at Hatsu regardless of the results of their final bouts. The only other rikishi who still has a chance at a winning record is Ms5w Seihakuho, 3-3, but at that rank, he is not likely to go up with a 4-3 record unless there is an extra opening in Juryo that has to be filled.

On the Juryo side, injured J14e Shiden (5-7-1) is guaranteed to drop, and he should be joined in Makushita by hapless rookie J13e Himukamaru (3-10) and injury victim J3e Mita (0-3-8). I don’t think J10e Hakuyozan (4-9) can pass either of them in the demotion queue even if he loses twice, though if he loses tomorrow, I would expect him to be pitted against Seihakuho on senshuraku in a potential exchange bout.

Thanks for following Tachiai’s November coverage of Makushita. With the yusho race decided and the promotion picture largely settled, the next update will likely come after the basho concludes. I also plan to take another look at how the Ms60TD debutants of the last couple of years fared in Kyushu.

In the first semifinal, Ryusho managed to grab the belt and overpowered Ohata with a nifty throw. In the second, Kazuma took his time against Daiyusho, being careful to avoid any mistakes, but was in full control throughout the bout and won by an inevitable-seeming oshidashi. So Ryusho and Kazuma will clash on day 13 for all the marbles; Kazuma has the added incentive of Juryo promotion on the line. It should be an interesting matchup between two Ms60TD rikishi, one a skillful 270-pound technician and the other a 400-pound wrecking ball. Ryusho’s career record is 16-4, while Kazuma’s is 30-2, not counting absences.

A bit of bonus Makushita coverage: Ms17 Enho got the jump on Kamito at the tachiai, grabbed the belt with both hands, lifted his opponent off his feet, and won by a powerful yoritaoshi, clinching his kachi-koshi and securing a spot in the extended promotion zone for Hatsu.

It was carnage in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone. Of the ten rikishi ranked there, one retired (Endo), and five others are make-koshi after today. That leaves only Ms1w Kyokukaiyu (4-2) and Ms3w Dewanoryu (5-1) with realistic promotion chances. The only other rikishi who still have a chance at a winning record are the Ms5 duo of Kazuto and Seihakuho, both 3-3, and neither is likely to go up with a 4-3 record unless there is an extra opening in Juryo that has to be filled.

On the Juryo side, we have two rikishi with records that are already likely to send them down: injury victim Ms3e Mita (0-3-8) and hapless rookie J13e Himukamaru (2-9). J10w Tohakuryu (3-8) is next in the demotion queue, followed by J14e Shiden (5-6), who looked to be injured at the conclusion of today’s loss. With at most 3 strong promotion candidates, everyone else is probably okay.

The only relevant action tomorrow is Kazuto visiting Juryo to fight Tohakuryu, so look for the next update on day 13.

And then there were four. As a reminder, these were the quarterfinal matchups:

Ohata overcame Ieshima after a protracted struggle, finally pulling down his Sandanme opponent by the belt to win by uwatehineri. Ryusho was outweighed by over 100 pounds by Shiroma but used his mobility to gain an advantageous dohyo position and win by oshidashi. His heya-mate Daiyusho met a bit of resistance at the tachiai but then pushed out Hokutenkai with relative ease. Kazuma was prepared for any shenanigans by Tochimusashi, employing a soft tachiai and then completely dominating his opponent to record the third oshidashi in four quarterfinal bouts.

So we’re set for the semifinals on day 11. In the first, featuring a 31-rank difference, Ohata will fight Ryusho. In the second, Daiyusho faces Kazuma; both employ a high-power pushing game. If Ohata or Kazuma win, we’ll have straightforward title decider on day 13. But if both Ryusho and Daiyusho make it through the semifinals, they’d have to be matched with 5-1 opponents, potentially opening the door to a big playoff on senshuraku. As Andy notes in the comments, Daiyusho made it all the way to the finals in September! Come back after the day 11 bouts conclude to see how everything turned out. In that post, I’ll also take a look at the Juryo promotion picture.