Day Fourteen brings us late breaking developments. Kotozakura is kyujo. He felt a pop in his knee yesterday while defeating Hoshoryu. Diagnosis is an urgent MCL injury requiring three weeks out. This will hand Onosato a fusen victory today, moving the Yokozuna to 13-1. Aonishiki and Takanosho are mathematically eliminated and Hoshoryu must win today to stay in the race.
In Juryo, Asahakuryu defeated Kagayaki to remain in the lead at 12-2. Asanoyama beat Fujiseiun to stay one loss off the pace at 11-3. Nishikifuji will visit Makuuchi today and will fight Asakoryu to see if he can stay in the race.
The NHK videos are here, along with a highlight bout of Tamashoho vs Nishinoryu in Juryo.
Makuuchi Action
Shonannoumi defeated Hitoshi. Shonannoumi charged forward and flopped to the ground while Hitoshi pulled and attempted a slapdown, running backwards out of the ring. Gunbai Shonannoumi, no mono-ii. Oshidashi.
Nishikifuji (11-3) defeated Asakoryu (6-8). Asakoryu pulled, like Hitoshi before him, and stepped out of the ring. Nishikifuji did not belly flop to the ground so this decision was more obvious. Oshidashi.
Tobizaru (8-6) defeated Mitakeumi (6-8). Tobizaru latched on to Mitakeumi’s belt and drove forward, forcing Mitakeumi over the bales. Yorikiri.
Nishikigi (2-12) defeated Roga (6-8). Nishikigi pressed forward a few steps and then pulled, shoving Roga down to the ground. Hikiotoshi.
Shishi (10-4) defeated Daieisho (6-8). Daieisho tsuppari appeared to be dominating Shishi, while Shishi cycled backward around the ring. Shishi charged forward to attack but Daieisho stepped to the side. Shishi went past but recovered before going out. Daieisho closed to attack but Shishi stepped to the side. Olé. Daieisho ran by and fell off the dohyo. Hatakikomi.
Sadanoumi (6-8) defeated Churanoumi (8-6). Churanoumi charged forward while Sadanoumi twisted with a throw attempt. Both men crashed out of the ring, landing in the crowd. Gunbai Churanoumi. Mono-ii. Churanoumi’s foot went out first so Sadanoumi was given the victory. Tsukiotoshi.
Tomokaze (9-5) defeated Midorifuji (6-8). Tomokaze pivoted to his right and slapped Midorifuji down. Hatakikomi.
Ura (10-4) defeated Ryuden (9-5). Both men pressed into each other with hazu-oshi. Suddenly, Ura pulled and Ryuden stumbled forward. Ryuden stopped his momentum before reaching the bales but Ura shoved him out. Oshidashi.
Kinbozan (7-7) defeated Tokihayate (6-8). Kinbozan thrust Tokihayate back. Tokihayate shifted and pulled but Kinbozan stuck with him and thrust Tokihayate out. Tsukidashi.
Oshoma (9-5) defeated Shodai (9-5). Shodai on the attack, tried to slap Oshoma down and then locked on with a left hand uwate. Oshoma broke Shodai’s hold, pressed forward and forced Shodai out. Oshidashi.
Meisei (5-9) defeated Atamifuji (4-10). Meisei pulled and slapped Atamifuji down. Atamifuji kept glancing at the shimpan, hoping for a mono-ii which never came. The result was not as close as Atamifuji thought but it was closer than necessary. The best pull of the first half was Tomokaze’s because it was such a clear victory with the “pivot and pull”. Hatakikomi.
Halftime
Fujinokawa (6-8) defeated Gonoyama (1-13). Gonoyama charged forward and Fujinokawa pivoted away. Gonoyama turned quickly his back was to the bales. Fujinokawa reengaged with a fierce attack and crushed Gonoyama over the bales. Yoritaoshi.
Wakamotoharu (8-6) defeated Hakuoho (7-7). Wakamotoharu locked up Hakuoho and drove him back. Hakuoho did not seem able to bear much weight on his right leg so he couldn’t get any resistance at the edge. Yorikiri.
Oho (9-5) defeated Kusano (7-7). Oho locked up Kusano’s arms at the tachiai. Kusano struggled to get his right arm released from Oho’s grasp. When he did, Oho still had Kusano’s left arm locked up, pivoted left and swung Kusano around to the edge. Oho then followed up and shoved Kusano out. Oshidashi.
Onokatsu (6-8) defeated Tamawashi. Tamawashi charged into Onokatsu behind his strong tsuppari. Onokatsu weathered the attack and snuck inside to get both arms locked inside on Tamawashi’s belt. This negated Tamawashi’s tsuppari attack and Onokatsu immediately drove him back across the dohyo. Tamawashi resisted at the bales and tried to escape to the left, then to the right. Onokatsu kept the pressure on until he forced Tamawashi over the bales. Yorikiri.
Ichiyamamoto (4-10) defeated Abi (3-11). Abi hit Ichiyamamoto with strong nodowa, then pivoted and pulled. Ichiyamamoto knew the pull was coming so he put the brakes on quickly. Abi was off balance and stumbled out with a little help from Ichiyamamoto. Oshidashi.
Sanyaku
Takayasu (6-8) defeated Kotoshoho (3-11). Solid tsuppari and footwork from Takayasu. He forced Kotoshoho back. Kotoshoho pivoted and pulled, pivoted and pulled, pivoted and pulled. But Takayasu pursued well hit Kotoshoho with strong tsuppari, charged forward and forced Kotoshoho out. Tsukidashi.
Aonishiki (11-3) defeated Hiradoumi (7-7). Hiradoumi hit Aonishiki hard at the tachiai. Aonishiki recovered, pressed ahead and suddenly shifted left, allowing Hiradoumi to fall forward. Hatakikomi.
Onosato (13-1) fusen over Kotozakura (9-5).
Takanosho (11-3) defeated Kirishima (6-8). Takanosho did his best Daieisho impression, thrusting into Kirishima and chasing him back. Kirishima tried to shove him and move to the side but he lost his balance and stepped out. It took a really long time for the kimarite to be announced. I wonder what the criteria were that determined tsukidashi. Were they thinking it might be oshidashi, or were they thinking isamiashi? Tsukidashi.
Hoshoryu (12-2) defeated Wakatakakage (6-8). Henka? Hoshoryu leaped ahead and to his right, grabbing Wakatakakage’s belt and pulling him forward. Hatakikomi.
Wrap-up
Hoshoryu gives us some suspense on Senshuraku. The title will come down to the Yokozuna on senshuraku! We have wanted this for years…5 ½, to be exact. The last time we had a Yokozuna showdown for the yusho was when Hakuho defeated Kakuryu in Osaka 2020. Before that, we have to go way back to Kyushu 2013 when Harumafuji defeated Hakuho.
We have make-koshi records from both Sekiwake and Takayasu at Komusubi. Takayasu will surely fall from sanyaku. The Aonishiki will be promoted to Sekiwake. Oho is laying claim to one of the open slots and Hakuoho might make a case with a win tomorrow, though his loss today has me concerned.
The full bout list is not available at the time of publish. I’ll update this post with the full pairings later.
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I’m an Onosato fan and a Hoshoryu doubter, but there’s something about this matchup that brings out the best in Hoshoryu. Onosato has a great chance to turn things around in this situation, needing only one win out of two matches, but I like Hoshoryu to win it. The sumo gods were not kind to him since going 11-0, but he turned things around quite well today. He’ll be extremely confident tomorrow.
I don’t think that a henka hints at confidence and it also doesn’t generate any. I think Hoshoryu felt quite uneasy after the bout, but he wanted that final at any price.
Still, without the believe in his own strength it will be very difficult to overcome the stronger yokozuna two times.
I’m wondering if the fusen win for Onosato helped Hoshoryu make this decision. It wouldn’t surprise me if that was the case.
I agree. I think he reasoned if Onosato got a freebie with Kotozakura out injured, he would take a freebie as well via Henka.
Not the henka so much as the dominance over Onosato. He knows he can beat him twice. Whether he does is another matter of course, but he’s not on a losing streak at least.
Hoshoryu Henka! Being a Yokozuna, that’s disappointing.
I don’t remember a Yokozuna Henka.
This Basho I was happy with his Yokozuna level dominance, with 10-0.
But today, he lost the charm.
At present Hoshoryu is the favorite for Yusho, giving his record against Onosato.
But this Henka spoils the fun.
Hoshoryu has to win the regulation fight AND the playoff to win the yusho. Even if you make Hoshoryu a 60% favourite over Onosato (and you assume that that holds for both the regulation fight and the playoff) that still only works out as a 36% chance of Hoshoryu winning the yusho.
That’s right, but does it give Onosato a 64% chance to win it?
If his chances in both bouts are 40% that would work out as a 16% chance to win the yusho if there were two bouts. But the chances for the second bout to take place are only 60%. Does that mean that Onosato’s chances in then would be 24% for the second bout alone and that those would be added to the 40% of the first bout?
That would indeed give 64%! Therefore it seems plausible, but I‘m no mathematician…
Onosato’s chances of winning is 64%. He has to win only one match for the ysuho. The only way he can lose is if Hoshoryu wins both bouts.
Statistically his chances are in fact only 43.75%!
Don’t forget that the 64% result from the assumption that Onosato’s chances were 40%. But according to stats (2-6 head to head) they are indeed only 25%.
That said this is of course only one of many possible probabilities.
For instance, Hoshoryu wins a bit more than 6% of his basho, Onosato 40%!
If you want to use match records for the probability, you should correct the probability for the 2nd match, since after Hoshoryu wins the 1st match he gets one more win, and the probability is no longer the same.
And one of the wins by Onosato is fusen, so should one actually start with the record 1-7.
Apparently I cannot write correctly. I meant 1-6 for the 1st match and then 1-7 for the 2nd match.
These are two very good points. Thank U very much, Askoj.
Keep in mind one of Onosato’s wins was a walkover, so it’s more like 6-1.
Okay, let‘s recapitulate: The true head to head is 6-1 in favor of Hoshoryu.
That means the chances before the first bout are roughly 86% to 14% and also the probability of a playoff is therefore 86%. Because of the additional win for Hoshoryu the odds for the playoff would be 7-1, which leaves only 12.5% chances for Onosato in that second bout and altogether a meagre 25%!
And on the other hand for Hoshoryu the chances are six sevenths times seven eighths = 75%. Is that finally all correct now?
But remember; these are only the statistical probabilities for the parameter head to head. There are other parameters which give wholly different results.
And there has never before been neither a duel as yokozunas nor a playoff between those two. Therefore let’s wait and see what senshuraku will bring!
That is not good statistics. You are not allow to multiply the chances , because it is not a random event.
His chance is simply 60%. Because the counter is put back to 0 in every fight. His chances to win in the second fight doesn’t get less because he has won in the first fight.
U are just a little bit right: his chances in the second fight would be 60%.
But if he lost the first one it would be 0%!
As we are before two possible bouts, Hoshoryu’s chances have to be multiplied, because he is one win behind and must win two bouts, not just one like Onosato.
Therefore the chances at this moment are 36% to 64% in favor of the Japanese.
Nope
There is a 50% chance of a sudden death playoff (all thing being equal).
Hoshoryu has a 50% chance of winning that playoff (all other things being equal).
50% of 50% is 25%
Andy, could U please delete my answer to Brasidas?
The first part of it is correct, but the second unfortunately isn’t.
Thanks a lot in advance.
Your calculation would be correct if the basho was decided by coin flips. But it isn’t. Therefore all things are not being equal at all.
Hoshoryu has a 6-1 advantage in the head to head against Onosato.
So 6/7 (chances for the first bout) multiplied by 7/8 (second bout with now 7-1 head to head) equals 75% in the favor of… Hoshoryu!
Wrong. The probability for winning two matches is what is being calculated, not the probability of winning the 2nd match, which you are describing. The probabilities of winning the 1st match and then the 2nd match given that the 1st match was won are multiplied, if one looks at the situation before the 1st match. The two probabilities could actually be different. Here they were assumed to be the same 60%.
Hakuho henka’d Harumafuji. It was epic. Picture perfect.
Considering that Bruce coined the term “Haramafuji hit and shift” I absolutely agree. Definitely a “the henka giveth and the henka taketh away” situation.
Pretty sure Ross Mihara has used “hit and shift” for going on 20 years.
The audience found Hoshoryu’s henka somewhat acceptable, probably because the other Yusho contender got a fusen win on the same day.
I’m just going to think of it as like one of those Batman stories where the Dark Knight accepts being viewed publicly as a villain if that’s what it takes to protect the city: Hoshoryu pulled that lame-ass henka (boo!) to ensure we wouldn’t have a day 14 fusensho take a yusho, and instead there’ll be a proper day 15 yokozuna duel for the Cup. But nephew better really bring it tomorrow to make to make torpedoing WTK that way today worth it!
Ichiyamamoto had a really distressed look on his face after his win, right? Well, he always shows more emotion than the others, so I hope it was just something on his mind rather than an injury.
I wish Kotozakura a good recovery. I had been getting ready to raise a glass in honor of good health tomorrow in honor of a whole basho with 21 makunouchi torikumi every day, and only one kyujo. Oh well, it’s still the highest participation rate in a long time, I believe.
Was it a henka? I’ll have to wait until the NHK Highlights show later (I’m sitting in an airport right now). That’s bad news re Kotozakura, I’m no particular fan, but I hate seeing rikishi injured. For me he’ll always be part of the Hosh/Kirishima/himself triumvirate, just in my head I know. I wish him well. Kinda woulda liked him to have beaten Onosato today, but them’s the breaks!
I can’t even contemplate tomorrow’s live show. Oh my, the television will be getting screamed at. May the sumo gods be kind!
A henka is a dodge of the initial charge, the goal being to get you opponent faceplant on the dohyo or running out of it under their own momentum.
A Yokozuna pulling a henka on an opponent who wanted a fair fight to avoid MK… cheap… this is why Japanese culture matters in sumo, concepts like hinkaku are real and valuable and make the sport special. Take them out and you have nothing but another sport done solely for money
The reaction from the crowd was delight. They knew what it meant.
Indeed! Only the second yokozuna showdown for the yusho in a long time!
Friendly reminder that you aren’t the arbiter of Japanese culture.
Sorry, I re-read this and it doesn’t sound very nice. I just mean to remind you that Japanese culture is not the rigid stoicism many foreigners think it is.
Is music playing between bouts on Kokugikan or is it only added to the studio?
Many fans online seem to believe the henka was fine. What if he does it tomorrow? Even better, what if ONOSATO does it to Hoshoryu? After all, Takakeisho did it to Atamifuji two years ago to win the September basho.
His henka was borderline. His right arm still met WTK in the shoulder. It was a quick bout but it meant that tomorrow means something. The crowd is savvy. They know things got interesting. If it happens again tomorrow, if that’s the final bout, they’ll be bummed. They want to see a great bout. No one would call that a great bout. But the henka means there might be a great bout tomorrow.
The JSA wants so much that the Japanese Yokazuna wins, that they have suggested at Kotazakura to go kyusho.
I’m not entertaining conspiracy theories unless I see text messages like during the yaocho scandal.
They have learned since than. I thought it would be a nice way to stir things up a little. However he didn’t seem hurt yesterday and has fought on unnecessarily with worse injuries so I was a little amazed.
To answer another question, I have seen do Yokazuna a henka. Besides it wasn’t a fullblooded one, like Wakamotoharu did to him a few tournaments ago. Wakatakakage didn’t run into a hole, he did touch Hoshoryu only then he wasn’t there anymore. Hakuoho, the GOAT was famous for his henka non henka.
One can easily confuse the names of Hakuho and Hakuoho, but it still doesn’t add credibility to your conspiracy theory…
If you watch the video of Kotozakura’s match from Day 13, you can clearly see that as Kotozakura was pushing Hoshoryu out of the dohyo, Hoshoryu tried to hook Kotozakura’s right leg and Kotozakura’s right knee collapsed inwards. Blow to the outside of the knee is a typical scenario for MCL hyperextension. Kotozakura’s MCL was probably not torn as he was able to squat to receive his kensho after the match, but after such a hyperextension, his knee was probably very sore and swollen the next morning.
Maybe they hope for him to still participate in London as their sole Ozeki. Time for healing will be short.
I can’t see Henkashoryu defeating Onosato two consecutive times; they are too close a match
it is going to be another basho for young Onosato
With a 6-2 head to head in favor of Hoshoryu, they are not that close a match so far!
That said, because of his one win lead Onosato has to be the favorite for the yusho.
Hoshoryu has done similar henkas to win matches since he got the rope before.
I am disappointed that Kotozakura withdrew today but eh.
Hakuoho is too low on the Banzuke to get boosted to sanyaku with just 8. As a Wakatakakage fan I hope they demote him to west Komusubi rather than out if he loses tomorrow since they didn’t demote Takayasu out of sanyaku from Komusubi two tournaments ago even though there was a much stronger case for someone to get promoted to replace him than this basho.
Regardless, Aonishiki is the next Ozeki. Probably in March.
2 sekiwakes at 6-8 ; they should keep one, preferably the one that wins tomorrow
if both wins (or both loses), I don’t know how they can keep one and demote the other
Well, one is east and the other west sekiwake. Therefore Wakatakakage is a half rank in front of Kirishima.
I’d rather value Aonishiki’s chances for January. For him to get to ozeki by March, he’d have to fail to hit the mark next basho and then getting the needed victories for March would become a harder task.
U‘re right, but there’s one exception: they might not consider 33 wins enough for January because he was M1 last basho. For March that would be different.
Oho will have 9-6 or 10-5 after tomorrow as M2w. He will get the other Sekiwake spot.
I think both Oho and Takanosho already did enough for a Sanyaku promotion, even more so if they were to win tomorrow. There could be a scenario where Takayasu beats Kirishima and WTK as well as all other promotion candidates losing, where they decide to keep either WTK or Takayasu in Sanyaku, but I kinda doubt that. Ura could make a return to Komusubi in such a scenario, if he wins tomorrow.
I realize this may sound apologetic—and I admit I’ve been a longtime Hoshoryu fan—but I’d like to offer a different perspective on the henka controversy.
Going into today’s bout, Hoshoryu knew that Onosato would advance without fighting, gaining both a win and some rest. He also knew that he himself had to win at all costs just to keep his chances alive for tomorrow. That may be why he chose to risk a henka: a way to secure the victory he needed without adding further strain to his already less-than-ideal condition. We’ve known for a while now that he hasn’t been at full strength.
Hoshoryu is also very familiar with being the target of henkas himself. He’s one of the best at reading them, but he has suffered more than one costly loss this way. He may also have recognized that Wakatakakage, too, was desperate—and has occasionally resorted to henkas in the past. I still remember the spectacular one he pulled on Takakeisho. In the end, Hoshoryu decided to take the gamble—and accept the criticism—in order to give himself a chance to prove worthy of the Yokozuna rank that some claim he did not earn fairly.
I am certain he will not use a henka tomorrow, and I hope he forces a playoff. Then, let the better man take the title—and perhaps, at last, the critics will finally give him the credit he deserves.
You can frame it any way you want. For a Yokozuna it’s just not a way to earn respect. It looks even more cheap as it was a critical bout for WTK to preserve his rank. Obviously it’s not illegal.
For me it was especially disappointing, because this tournament for the first time since becoming a Yokozuna, he has been actually fighting like one. At least for the first 11 bouts. Those dominant bouts not like in previous basho, were he was often at the edge of losing. Seeing that one loss against Aonishiki shatter his confidence this much is a little worrying.
WTK has had 13 days already to preserve his rank. And there‘s possibility to counter a henka.
There is also possibility to beat WTK without a henka. 7 other guys had done it already this tournament and if I recall right, most did without one, but a Yokozuna has to resort to that? What kind of message is that?;-)
Very good point, but still what a pity if Hoshoryu had fought like a man and then lost, the basho would be decided by now: what an anticlimax!
I question the question mark, Andy. Hoshoryu‘s arm on WTK’s shoulder as proof that it wasn‘t a henka? Not meant to be that way, he just wasn‘t fast enough :)
As an Abi sympathizer I won‘t complain about it anyway.
The nice thing is, that we get that Yokozuna showdown on Senshuraku. Hoshoryu knows how to put on a show for sure and how to keep his fans excited.
Right, intent matters, not results. We’ve seen henka attempts by big guys who were so slow to move that they ended up eating most of their opponent’s charge anyway, but that didn’t make what they did less of a henka.
Shishi vs Daieisho was entertaining – a bit clowny at the end, especially from that view from the roof cam on the highlights show.
Hoping that Kirishima & Wakatakakage both win tomorrow so they don’t leave Sanyaku.
As Kintamayama showed in his video today, exactly 10 years ago yokozuna Kakuryu (11-2) henka’d ozeki Kisenosato (10-3) with the yusho on the line. In fact, he henka’d him twice after the first one was called a matta. Full-on jump to the right on the first, full-on jump to the left on the second. Kisenosato was able to put on the brakes and engage, but Kakuryu won. He then lost to Terunofuji on day 15, which forced a playoff, but won the rematch to take the yusho. And Kakuryu was known for his hinkaku.
Kakuryu had also a 14-28 record against Kisenosato at that time and he might have been the Yokozuna, but he still was the underdog. Don’t think he got applauded for it either.
Kakuryu was really great at capitalising on opportunities (the complete opposite of Kisenosato). I don’t remember him doing a lot of henka, but he always had a disruptive/evasive style.
The thing about henka is that it’s kinda admitting that your chances in a straight on fight are not great. For a Yokozuna that’s not something you usually want to do. For Kakuryu vs. Kisenosato that was very obviously the case. For Hoshoryu however against WTK it should be the opposite.
Lots of drama, I’m gonna stay out of it, cuz I’m firmly in the “OMG Yokozuna showdown!” camp. I’m here for the entertainment not to cast disparaging takes on individuals (except Abi, i really didn’t like him, 🤣😂)
What I did want to post, however, are my personal fighting spirit prizes for this basho. They don’t go to guys with winning records, necessarily, but for “no quit” and “grit” in their game .In no particular order:
Kinbozan. Gosh I’ve been rooting for this kid since he first came up, and even though he can’t figure out the consistency, he has turned it around here in the last few days to make this tourney respectable.
Tamawashi. He gets this award every tournament from me, because, I mean, come on. There is no one cooler than the Iron Man. But that no quit at the edge in today’s match was amazing. He’s 41?!? This secured the prize. No longer contingent on his day 15 result.
Papa Bear. He couldn’t participate in the jungyo, is rusty at the start, is looking like he’s gonna be one basho on, one basho off, and then, man, this week his pride and his strength come bubbling out thru those tsuppari. Another fist pump for the old guys who still want it, and ain’t letting these youngsters forget they still got it.
I may never get this website to post where i want, lol. It does not render on my phone right apparently.
Name a rikishi who would NEVER do a henka no matter what.
I will give a candidate : Hiradoumi