Congratulations to Ozeki Hoshoryu (12-3) on his second career yusho. After a shaky start, with 3 losses in the first 9 days, he won his final 6 bouts, plus two more in the playoff. This run included victories over his two fellow Ozeki and Sekiwake Daieisho (11-4). Hoshoryu also lived up to his rank’s role as “the great barrier” by defeating all the lower-ranked yusho hopefuls: Kirishima, Oho (twice), Chiyoshoma, Kinbozan (twice), and Takerufuji. JSA Chairman Hakkaku has asked the Yokozuna Deliberation Council to consider the promotion of Hoshoryu to sumo’s highest rank, and they will be meeting later today (Japan time). I was all set to write how Haru would be the first basho without a Yokozuna in over 30 years, but barring any unexpected hiccups, we should have a Yokozuna on the March banzuke after all!
Onosato earned a respectable if somewhat disappointing 10-5 record and should be the top-ranked Ozeki in March. He’ll be joined at the rank by Kotozakura (5-10), who will need to recover from whatever ailed him this basho in order to post the 8 wins he needs at Haru to retain his rank.
S1w Daiesho (11-4) ably defended his rank and should be moving over to East side. He’ll be joined at Sekiwake by either M1w Kirishima (11-4) or M3w Oho (12-3), who’ll be filling the space vacated by S1e Wakamotoharu (6-9). Whichever of the two isn’t Sekiwake will take the East Komusubi slot. K1w Wakatakakage (7-8) will join his brother in the rank-and-file. Who’ll be West Komusubi is unclear. The best-placed promotion candidate is M3e Gonoyama (8-7), which may lead the banzuke committee to consider sliding K1e Abi (7-8) over to the West side.
Abi/Gonoyama and the Waka brothers should occupy the first 3 maegashira ranks. They’re likely to be joined in the joi by Chiyoshoma, Tobizaru, Takanosho, Takayasu, Ichiyamamoto, Ura, and Kinbozan.
Who’s on the Juryo barge, and who’s coming up to Makuuchi? The 3 certain demotions are all absentees: Hokutofuji, Roga, and Kitanowaka. Together with Terunofuji’s retirement, this opens up 4 spots in the top division. The 4 obvious candidates to fill these are 3 returnees—Juryo champion Shishi and veterans Ryuden and Sadanoumi—and one rookie, Shishi’s fellow Ukrainian Aonishiki, who is set to earn the fastest top-division promotion by a foreign-born wrestler, and tied for the fastest by someone who started at the bottom. Asakoryu will also make a top-division return. He should take the place of Kagayaki, though this is a little less clear-cut. The other demotion candidates are Tamashoho, Tokihayate, Kotoshoho, and Mitakeumi (who looked completely helpless after a 2-1 start). The most likely 6th exchange, if there is one, is Shirokuma for Tamashoho. J1w Kayo (7-8) missed out on what would have been a near-certain promotion when he lost to Hakuyozan in a rematch of a bout which he pretty clearly should have won.
One last matter—who’ll be crossing the “heaven/hell” boundary between Juryo and Makushita? One spot in the sekitori ranks is opened by Terunofuji’s retirement. Set to lose their salaries are Daishoho, absent Bushozan, Shimazuumi, and Daiamami. This means we need to bring up five guys, and the lucky winners are Ms1e Wakanosho, making his sekitori debut after 19 tournaments, returnees Hitoshi and Kazekeno, who have two Juryo basho between them, and debutants Kusano (who started at Ms60TD last May) and Otsuji (who debuted at the bottom in 2019 as a 15-year-old after a second-place finish at the Hakuho Cup). Hatsuyama should be a bit lucky to survive, while Miyagi is likely to just miss out on promotion. This is one set of banzuke decisions (in addition to Yokozuna promotion) that we’ll learn about in the next couple of days. The rest will be revealed on February 25. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
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That is a stupendous amount of churn and I’m here for it.
I‘d favor Abi over Gonoyama for the last Sanyaku spot.
And I wish Mitakeumi was sent to Juryo instead of Kagayaki because I still think he „stole“ a few wins last basho by not going kyujo though he wasn’t able to put up a fight.
That won’t happen, of course, therefore Kagayaki, who woke up too late, might have to leave and the last free place in Makuuchi might be decided between Tamasoho and Shirokuma. I‘d give it to the brother in law, but I guess one could roll a dice.
The same goes probably for the second Sekiwake spot, where I would prefer Oho with his playoff jun jusho, but tend to expect Kirishima, who beat him in their fight.
As to your query: why 1958 till now? Was something different concerning the Yokozuna rank until 1957?
I believe 1958 is the start of the 6-basho-per-year era. The first Yokozuna didn’t appear on the banzuke until 1890. If you expand the query, you’ll find just one more stretch without a Yokozuna in the early 1930’s, when they fought 11 times per basho, a couple of basho per year, and the guy who ended that stretch got promoted after 10-1 Y, 7-4.
Thank you, lksumo, for the preview again! I‘m sorry for Kayo, très sympa Okinawa guy, but it‘s difficult if you drag 7 losses around up to the last bout. J1 a stormy place, he had to deal with all the maegashira drop outs and the upward pushing ukrainians. Now there‘s another basho to stabilize his position, and later to enter Makuuchi hopefully for settling there.
Hoshoryu 0 Kmboshi, 2 times runner up, only the need for a new Yokozuna justify the promotion.
What a shame that Hoshoryu has no kinboshi! Or is it?
He had exactly TWO fights against a Yokozuna when he was a Maegashira.
It‘s true, Terunofuji won them both, but that’s hardly a reason to throw dirt on the Nephew’s Yokozuna run…
If he became a yokozuna he would be the first to do so before beating another. More dirt. 😀 He is the best, but need to do more to be Uncle finger nail material…
Yes but think about it this way, whoever the next yok is after him, he’ll likely have a winning record versus. Especially if it’s Onosato, who loves getting thrown by Hos apparently 😂
But there currently is no yokozuna to beat…
Seems like you feel Hoshoryu’s promotion is pretty definite.
Which style dohyo iri will he choose to do, I wonder?
According to Herouth (@SumoFollower), probably Unryu.
It would appear there will be a M18e rank for the first time in a long, long time. with only 7 occupying the Sanyaku ranks. I can agree with all of the swaps to Juryo, Makushita and Makuuchi.
GTB helper will definitely get a workout this time.
Looks like just 3 years ago, Hatsu 2022, that Oho was M18e. Probably should have looked into that before making the long, long comment.
First time in 3 years, to be exact.
And before that, in March 2020, Kotonowaka (now Kotozakura) made his top division debut at M18.
A long, long time before that, though — 1959.
I wonder if the controversial Kayo/Hakuyozan Torinaoshi call was because as Hakuyozan’s hand hit the clay, one of Kayo’s feet had rotated and it was no longer the “sole of the foot” touching the ring but the side of his foot?
Just how sure are we that Hosh will get the rope? I see a lot of talk that is sounding like it’s pretty much expected at this point. But if he is promoted it will be the lowest win total for a Yokozuna promotion since the 80’s. There were prominent future Yokozuna who were turned down on better records, and recently Takakeisho was denied on nearly the same record (12-3 J, 13-2 Y).
I looked around in the Japanese press, and they’re writing things like “Hoshoryu to be promoted yokozuna”, “Hoshoryu ensures yokozuna promotion” etc.
Hoshoryu is at the right time at the right place.
Probably Takakeisho would also have been promoted if the Yokozuna had retired then.
Unfortunately 12-3 without yusho has not been treated as equivalent to yusho when coupled with yusho with 13-15 wins in majority of the cases, whereas 12-3 yusho coupled with 13-15 wins without yusho has happened twice, Hokutoumi 1987 and Terunofuji 2021, and both times led to yokozuna promotion. Personally I think Takakeisho’s 2020 result and Hoshoryu’s now should be treated the same, but historically they have not been treated the same.
And I might add here that in 1987 Onokuni got 15-0 Y, 12-3 J and 13-2 J after which he was promoted Yokozuna. So for him 15-0 Y and 12-3 J was not enough for promotion, but for Hokutoumi 12-3 Y and 13-2 J was enough to get him promoted to Yokozuna. And these happened within the same year. This just shows that the apparent contradiction between Takakeisho 2020 and Hoshoryu now is not even as contradictory as what happened in 1987.
I think you can’t just add up the numbers as if this was an ozeki run. The key point is that the jun yusho has to be seen as equivalent to a yusho. 13-2 has been accepted, 12-3 hasn’t. Whereas a 12-3 yusho is still accepted as a yusho, because it is. So I don’t think Takakeisho should have been treated the same.
I think I made a difference between my own opinion on whether Takakeisho and Hoshoryu should be treated the same and what actually happens. I think I wrote in the very first sentence that 12-3 without yusho has not been treated as equivalent to yusho.
You explained perfectly what has happened, I agree. I was just saying that I can see why it has happened that way, so in my opinion, Takakeisho was not treated unfairly. You were not one of the people who just added up the number of wins over two bashos. Sorry if I appeared to be critical, not my intention.
Takakeisho was kyujo in the previous basho, before his 25 win rope run. At that point he had been ozeki in 7 basho, going kyojo 3 times and kadoban twice and dropping to sekiwake once. All in all Takakeisho missed 29 matches. Hoshoryu has been 7 basho as ozeki missing the final weekend twice, never been kadoban. Hoshoryu has missed five matches.
It’s well after 5pm in Tokyo and I haven’t seen a peep about the YDC’s meeting that was supposedly going to be today. All the Japanese press I am seeing that was posted this morning uses the term “presumptive” and mentions the split opinion of the judging committee of the JSA.
Of course all the news now is the resignation of the president of Fuji TV.
And 15 minutes after I post, NHK posts a breaking news ticker that the YDC has recommended his promotion.
Great news. Thanks.
To me the requirement for a Yokozuna isn’t that he has 15 wins every basho, but to be in the yusho race almost every basho. To average 12wins a basho should be the bare minimum expectation especially with no other Yokozuna and few Ozeki around.Hoshoryu is still far away from that. His wins as an Ozeki going backwards are 12, 13, 8, 9, 10, 11, 10, 10, 8. Those are pretty decent numbers(not breathtaking) for an Ozeki, but nowhere near Yokozuna level.
Yes, he has looked strong those last two tournaments, but it’s only September that he had that 8win stinker.
His focus and determination down the stretch this basho was impressive, but it’s also a basho with a Yokozuna going intai, an Ozeki limping out kadoban and 3 of the 4 sanyaku securing a makekoshi.
A lot of people here seem to think that a Yokozuna promotion will kind of instantly push him even further, but it will also come with a lot of pressure.
I definitely think Hoshoryu will make it to Yokozuna, but I also think he should proof himself more before. If that means by another 12-3 yusho next basho, then be it that way.
Every Yokozuna has had his Ozeki history. Even Hakuho had a 8-7 record in it. As a ‚Shin-Yokozuna‘ he went 11-4. Also Hoshoryu would grow with his tasks – like many other persons stepping up in their business.
And Hakuho also was not promoted following a 14-1 yusho and a 13-2 jun-yusho (in that order) and directly before that he had two 13-2 jun-yusho at Sekiwake. In a stretch of 4 basho in a row he reached 13 or more wins. That’s 3 times more than Hoshoryu ever had. He did that with one Yokozuna (Asashoryu) and 4 Ozeki around who had a combined 3 losing records (all went kyujo at some point). Asashoryou was kyujo one of those basho.
In that sense Hakuho would be the perfect example as to why Hoshoryu should have to proof himself more.
Hakuho btw. had his 8-7 basho after that failed promotion followed by a basho he sat out completely, before clearing Kadoban with a 10-5 record followed by two straight yusho just to make sure no one interfered with his promotion.
And 12 win average doesn’t mean to win 12 every basho. You can go 15 and 9 as well. And maybe a little less than 12 is ok too, but definitely not 10 like Hoshoryu has. Those last two basho have to become his new normal.
To be fair, Hakuho’s case was part of some of the most extreme non-promotions post-Futahaguro, when they demanded YY, and that standard got relaxed again in recent years (the last 3 yokozuna before Hoshoryu didn’t hit it). You can throw in Musashimaru’s 12-3 J 15-0 Y (!!!) and Takanohana’s 14-1 Y 13-2 D (his 3rd yusho and 3rd JY).
But it was at a time when they had already spoken openly about accepting lesser/extended runs…Kaio was still considered tsunatori in 2004 after 13-2 Y / 12-3 J, Tochiazuma just a few months prior to Hakuho after 14-1 Y / 12-3 (not even jun-yusho). If anything, Hakuho’s 14-1 Y / 13-2 J first attempt at promotion likely didn’t go through because of bias against young ozeki with too little of a track record. In all likelihood the same line would have worked for a more senior ozeki, even almost a decade before Kakuryu’s promotion officially debunked the need for back-to-back yusho in 2014.
U say that Hoshory‘s Ozeki numbers were nowhere near Yokozuna level.
I say that Terunofuji would have been very happy with tose numbers…
What U don‘t get is how important it is obviously for the JSA to have a Yokozuna.
What you don’t understand is that I posted multiple times over the last days, that Teru’s intai could have a big impact on the decision. I also stated very clearly that this was my opinion and not what I believe will happen.
Not all that U write is wrong, but I think that like even the JSA was, U should be able to adapt your expectations of a Yokozuna run to the situation that we have.
I do hope hoshoryu becomes yokozuna but he does have 3 losses. Yokozuna not only means about wins but he also needs the right mindset that sets an example to other wrestlers – in this case in the last Basho he didn’t bow to his opponent until the Goyoji asked him back. Things like these judges will take note and part of me won’t be surprised if they want to wait out another Basho to decide
The YDC has recommended Hoshoryu to be promoted to Yokozuna.
Many congratulations to Yokozuna Hoshoryu and Tatsunami Oyakata.
Long live the Yokozuna
My first draft has Daieisho, Kirishima, Oho, Abi in that order as Sanyaku.
Then Wakatakakage (M1E), Wakamotoharu (M1W) & Gonoyama (M2E). Of course it could be the other way around for Wakamotoharu & Gonoyama.
After that I have the same M2W-M5 as lksumo except swapped with Kinbozan & Ichiyamamoto.
I sent 6 to Juryo (Tokihayate, Tamashoho, Kagayaki, Kitanowaka, Roga, Hokutofuji) & brought 6 up to replace them (Shishi, Ryuden, Aonishiki, Sadanoumi, Asakoryu, Shirokuma);
Finally the Bottom M17 I have Mitakeumi & Kotoshoho, but did not yet consider an M18E which would throw a lifeline to Tokihayate.
I will let it stand for some days before revisiting.
If You sent 6 guys to Juryo and brought up other 6 to replace them, You have only 41 rikishi. Hint: Terunofuji :)
I have Tamashoho as “next one down” and Shirokuma as “next one up”, but who will actually win that playoff? Seems like a knife-edge. I think I’m opting for Tamashoho, based on solely on the idea that there’ll be enough change already without that swap. But, is that an idea that even enters the Committee’s heads?
6 promotions would be a lot (7 is the record not counting the 2010/2011 scandals), but it does happen, so no idea if they consider the number of changes.