News from the infirmary that Roga is kyujo again. He was obviously still hobbled by his injury and unable to win. Chiyoshoma will pick up the default fusen victory.
The NHK videos are here: Juryo Part I & Part II, Makuuchi Part I & Part II.
The contest in Juryo is down to the two Ukrainians, Shishi and Aonishiki, and Wakaikari. The three men lead with one loss. Six guys trail with two losses, including Asakoryu, Ryuden, Tochitaikai, Oshoumi, Hakuyozan and Kotoeiho. Aonishiki wrangled Daiseizan with an impressive whirling attack, culminating in a second consecutive shitatehineri. Do what works.
Makuuchi Action
Hakuoho (4-3) defeated Tamashoho (2-5). Tamashoho henka but Hakuoho adjusted well and latched on with his left-hand inside and right-hand outside. Tamashoho’s loose belt clearly created challenges for Hakuoho, who was heavily taped on his back and seemed to be in pain. Yorikiri.
Kinbozan (7-0) defeated Tokihayate (3-4). Kinbozan destroyed Tokihayate with a series of his brutal thrusting nodowa attacks. He drove him to the edge and then slammed him to the ground with a powerful left hand. Ouch. Oshitaoshi.
Kagayaki (2-5) defeated Kotoshoho (1-6). Several clashes of heads as Kagayaki and Kotoshoho clunk into each other repeatedly. Kagayaki’s tsuppari, paired with the head butts, forced Kotoshoho back to the edge and over the bales. Oshidashi.
Nishikifuji (4-3) defeated Shonannoumi (2-5). After a short flurry of tsuppari, Nishikifuji secured Shonannoumi’s belt and churned forward. On the way, he shifted his right hand grip from outside to inside, securing a morozashi to finish Shonannoumi off with ease. Yorikiri.
Onokatsu (4-3) defeated Kitanowaka (4-3). Kitanowaka shifted to the side at the tachiai and locked on with his left hand deep on Onokatsu’s belt. This allowed him to drag Onokatsu to the edge. However, Onokatsu recovered his footing along the bales and turned the tables with his own solid belt grip. He drove forward into Kitanowaka and forced him out. Yorikiri.
Tamawashi (6-1) defeated Nishikigi (4-3). Tamawashi locked horns with Nishikigi at the middle of the ring, rather than launching his trademark aggressive tsuppari. Nishikigi shoved Tamawashi back behind his right hand and started to surge forward. But Tamawashi countered and knocked that right hand away, slipped to his right, and slapped Nishikigi down. Strategery. Hatakikomi.
Takerufuji (6-1) defeated Oshoma (4-3). Takerufuji secured a morozashi at the tachiai to drive into Oshoma, forcing him to the edge. Oshoma tried to slip down the bales but Takerufuji obliterated him with a powerful shove to the neck. Oshidashi.
Churanoumi (3-4) defeated Midorifuji (1-6). Midorifuji false start. Midorifuji pitched forward to re-engage but Churanoumi backed up and slapped Midorifuji down with his right-hand firm at the base of Midorifuji’s neck. Hatakikomi.
Takarafuji (3-4) defeated Meisei (2-5). Meisei let Takarafuji get inside and secure a left-hand inside belt grip. Takarafuji got the legs churning and drove Meisei back and out. Yorikiri.
Takayasu (4-3) defeated Mitakeumi (2-5). Takayasu quickly secured Mitakeumi’s mawashi and drove him back to the bales. Mitakeumi tried to shift to his right along the bales but Takayasu followed and forced him over. Yorikiri.
Halftime
Chiyoshoma (7-0) fusen win over Roga (0-3-4)
Hiradoumi (3-4) defeated Endo (3-4). Endo slow-rolls Hiradoumi into a false start. It didn’t help, however, as Hiradoumi launched into Endo, locked up his right-hand inside grip and he quickly forced Endo back. Endo tried a lazy slapdown with his right but he was already toast. Yorikiri.
Ura (3-4) defeated Ichiyamamoto (4-3). Ichiyamamoto tried to pull and slap Ura down. Not a wise choice as Ura charged forward, staying with Ichiyamamoto. Ichiyamamoto jumped and drove Ura down but Ichiyamamoto was already dead in the air. Incompetence. Oshidashi.
Tobizaru (5-2) defeated Shodai (2-5). Shodai had control for most of this bout. Tobizaru hung on for the ride as Shodai dragged him around the dohyo and importantly kept Tobizaru front-and-center. But at the edge Tobizaru slipped away from Shodai’s grip at a critical moment. Shodai tried to hurl Tobizaru over the edge but Tobizaru got in behind and pushed Shodai from the back. What an escape! Okuridashi.
Sanyaku
Kirishima (4-3) defeated Wakatakakage (3-4). Kirishima grabbed Wakatakakage’s left arm and dragged him back to the bales. Kirishima shifted right along the bales and used his left leg to tip hims forward. Tottari.
Takanosho (2-5) defeated Abi (4-3). Takanosho shifted left as Abi charged forward, nearly forcing him out. Abi slammed on the brakes and reengaged. Unfortunately for Abi fans, he decided to pull and Takanosho chased him out of the ring. Oshidashi.
Daieisho (5-2) defeated Wakamotoharu (1-6). Daieisho pounded away with his tsuppari. Wakamotoharu tried to force Daieisho’s arms away and leaned forward to try to get away from the tawara, so Daieisho shifted to the side and let Wakamotoharu fall forward. Tsukiotoshi.
Onosato (4-3) defeated Atamifuji (2-5). Atamifuji used his right hand inside Onosato’s armpit to hold Onosato high and drive him back to the edge. Onosato recovered and tried to break Atamifuji’s hold with left-hand ottsuke but Atamifuji would not relent. Onosato locked in with his right hand inside and struggled to force Atamifuji back. He pitched right and that dragged Atamifuji to the side, putting his back to the edge. Onosato then used gaburi yotsu to force Atamifuji over the edge. Yorikiri.
Hoshoryu (6-1) defeated Oho (6-1). Oho pulled at the start Hoshoryu was on him like white on rice. Oho moved forward and Hoshoryu yanked on Oho’s right arm, pulling him forward. From Oho’s right side Hoshoryu tried to pull him over the edge but Oho resisted and pitched forward. This effectively turned Oho’s back to Hoshoryu so Hoshoryu leapt in to attack from behind and rushed Oho across the ring, shoving him to the ground at the edge. Okuritaoshi.
Kotozakura (2-5) defeated Gonoyama (4-3). Kotozakura’s left knee is taped and the way Gonoyama drove him back to the bales made me think he really cannot put much weight on it. Kotozakura used his right-foot only to brace against the tawara and resist Gonoyama’s charge and he settled things down in the center but was unable to launch an attack. Instead, Gonoyama pressed forward again, driving Kotozakura back to the edge of the dohyo. The Ozeki teetered on the bales and pulled Gonoyama forward to the ground. Gunbai Kotozakura. No mono-ii. None needed. Kotozakura won and replays show Gonoyama fell forward first. Tsukiotoshi.
Wrap-up
Several solid wins from Kirishima this tournament as he tries to re-establish himself at the top of the division. Onosato had a great recovery but sure came close to another quick loss. Hoshoryu demonstrated what he failed to show in the loss to Atamifuji, an ability to adapt to his opponent and the ability to attack in different ways to find a solution. Kotozakura was very fortunate to pick up his second win today.
Kinbozan will face Tamawashi while Chiyoshoma takes on the Takarabune. That Kinbozan/Tamawashi bout will be interesting. Tamawashi is not going to like nodowa. When Chiyoshoma gets his kachi-koshi, I would expect him to move up and face stiffer competition in Week Two.
Kotozakura will get his turn against Oho tomorrow. As well as Oho is fighting, and as hurt as Kotozakura seems to be, this will not look promising for the Ozeki who is drawing close to kadoban. Onosato will take on Wakatakakage, who has appeared shaky in the last few days. Wakatakakage is always dangerous so Onosato will need to reestablish his fundamentals and leverage his size and good footwork to force him out. Finally, Hoshoryu will face Shodai. We know Shodai will bring it because there will be a massive stack of kensho on the line.
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Any prediction about what Shodai will or won’t do is, a priori, absurd. He exists in a quantum state of flux. Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle made flesh. Like the peace of God he surpasses all understanding. You cannot know what Shodai will do, he is a superposition of both glorious victory and abject defeat. Schrodinger’s Rikishi.
Back when Shodai was ozeki he was the most predictable guy. You knew he would barely even try, and just pile up the sorry defeats until he was kadoban and nearing his 2nd make-koshi – at which point he would rise from his ashes like a phoenix and bulldoze everybody for precisely as long as it took to keep rank. But since he finally slipped up and lost ozeki, he’s been varying his dishrag and his bulldozer self seemingly without a pattern. I’ve learned not to expect anything, so the only time I do scratch my head is when he occasionally throws in a match where it looks like he’s genuinely trying but doesn’t get the win – now that is truly un-shodaiesque :) I love the Lord of Chaos!
In a parallel universe Shodai could have won all his bouts and we just don‘t know it!
Was holding my breath for the Hoshoryu vs. Oho match. Oho has given the Evil Nephew a lot of problems over the past few basho so I’m very glad he cleared that hurdle. Now he just needs to keep up with the smart sumo. If he can take the yusho at 14-1, and with Terunofuji retiring, I think the NSK just might make him our next Yokozuna.
I’m thinking with a 14-1 yusho it’s at least 50-50 but with a 13-2 yusho it’s 40-60 against.
There has been one Ozeki with a 13 wins jun yusho and a 13 wins yusho. He got the rope.
Therefore statistically it‘s 100-0 not 40-60…
Interesting: Two Ozeki had a 13 wins jun yusho and then a 14 wins yusho; they both were promoted. But two others had it the other way round (first Y14, then J13) and they both were denied promotion! It seems that the second tournament is more important than the first.
Your sample size is very insignificant. Also your examples are from the early 80s and therefore before Futahaguro. After Futahaguro they also promoted Onokuni after a yusho and two Jun-yusho(12 and 13w), which didn’t turn into a great Yokozuna career either.
The none promotions of Takanohana and Hakuho are both probably linked to this experience. Also at that time there were with Akebono respectively Asashoryu fairly new and dominant Yokozuna around.
Quite different times. Don’t think we can deduct much from this.
I couldn’t blame the YDC for not promoting Hoshoryu even with 14 wins, as he has, despite being the most consistent Sanyaku rikishi in the past years, only 2 tournaments with 12 or more wins so far. On the other hand, they might feel pressured to fill that spot with Teru gone, especially if Kotozakura also goes Kadoban.
Personally i think a yusho with 13wins will be enough
It‘s obvious that the numbers are not significant. With the 100% I was only mocking your percentages for which there is no derivation at all.
Though there is also no statistical relevance for the second part of my reply, I still find it very interesting that identical results (27 wins, a yusho and a jun yusho) twice grant the rope and twice not. Maybe a jun yusho might be seen as a small disappointment when it follows a victory, while a yusho after a jun yusho is an improvement reached under great pressure.
Anyway, I agree with U that a yusho with 13 wins will do the trick for Hoshoryu.
Hoshoryu continues to dominate .. he owned Oho + flashed the glare after dumping him off the dohyo .. Credit to Tobizaru for a strong basho .. Shodai seemingly lost focus (as expected) on the edge at the very moment he should be making sure there was no escape .. Out flew the monkey .. Tobizaru is ying to Shodai’s yang .. His elusive sumo can look really bad if his opponents force him to dance on bales .. Kirishima’s move looked clever to me .. WTK reached in .. K-shima takes that arm + roundly escorted him over the bales .. WTK looked confused afterwards .. Kotozakura traded his powder blue mawashi for black .. Good move! .. Stick with it kid .. Powder blue does not look good w the big baby face .. Hakuoho looked really sore/hurting .. Sorry to see his should/back bandages re-appear .. Tamawashi has extremely rare joint chemistry .. or is one of those warriors who refuse to tape up .. Looking forward to the lower ranked 6-1 & 7-0 rikishi facing higher ranked competition ..
The last few days it looks like Kiribayama has shown up. Never should have changed his shikona
I agree.
On the other hand, Kotozakura changed his mawashi and it brought him a day seven win. (Though I doubt that Oho will be jinxed by the unusual color today.)
Yeah, i don’t know, that was the slimist of escapes. The whole bout i was thinking, “the new mawashi isn’t helping”. I guess it did? But he is cooked. He has an uphill battle to not go kadoban.
I see that they still haven’t announced a Jungyo for April 2025 in Tokyo. Does anyone know if they are having an event at the shrine this April?
Second question, is the even always on the 15th April , or a particular weekday of the month historically? Thanks
It’s been on Mondays for the last ~10 years, so probably on the 14th this year. No guarantees, though.