The changing of the sumo guard is now in full swing. How rude, you say! Terunofuji is still a potent technician in the ring and a yusho threat every time he steps on the dohyo. In fact, over his yokozuna tenure (so far) he has an almost 50% yusho win rate if he shows up on day 1 of the basho, but he is also at a stage in his career where he misses more tournaments than he makes, and the end draws nearer every day. Now, with the retirement in September of his main rival, Takakeisho, who was himself a several-time candidate for the white rope, I think it’s fair that we be allowed to turn our attentions to the next generation and have some fun speculating over the big question on everyone’s minds:
Who is next in line for sumo’s throne?
A few fun facts before we get started. Yokozuna promotions are a regular occurrence in sumo, but they are not frequent. There have only been 73 in the last 275 years, which is an average of 1 yokozuna every 3.77 years. Spoken another way, that’s a new yokozuna every 23ish basho.
Recent history seems to maintain this trend. If we only consider the last 10 yokozuna promotions (starting with the elevation of the late, great Akebono in March 1993), then we see the average gap between yokozuna promotions shrink only marginally, to 3.098 years, or just over 18 basho. The shortest gap during that time was exactly one year, between the promotions of Wakanohana and Musashimaru. The longest gap was between Hakuho and Harumafuji, a span of 5 years and 4 months, or 32 basho(!), which I believe can be easily explained by Hakuho’s (and until 2010, Asashoryu’s) utter dominance during that period.
So where does that leave us? Looking at the numbers, it would appear we are due, as it has now been just over 3 years since Terunofuji’s promotion. Who will next rise to claim the title? There are several contenders, some more likely than others, and I have separated them into 3 categories: front runners, dark horses, and prospects.
Front runners:
Onosato, Kotozakura, Hoshoryu
It should come as no surprise that the most promising candidates are our three current ozeki. They are all still young, and Aki’s lackluster performances notwithstanding, appear increasingly strong in their sumo. Onosato’s rise to ozeki is the fastest in professional history, and with 2 yusho already in 5 top division basho he is my runaway favorite, but I would not sleep on his ozeki rivals either. Both Kotozakura and Hoshoryu have jun-yusho in the last year, and neither have logged a losing record / gone kadoban since attaining their ozeki rank. Not every yokozuna breezes through ozeki (Harumafuji took 22 basho to earn the rope; Musashimaru took 32).
I’d say all three current ozeki have the makings of a grand champion—it is simply down to them to execute. With his size, strength, and overwhelming style, Onosato seems not a question of “if” but “when.” Kotozakura reminds me of Kisenosato with his disciplined, patient sumo—let’s hope he doesn’t also share the former yokozuna’s yusho woes. Hoshoryu, meanwhile, has always held an athleticism edge over his foes, beating them to the punch and pulling off spectacular counters, but now he seems to be bulking to match their size. Let’s hope his gains don’t come at the expense of his agility and finesse.
Dark horses:
Kirishima, Wakatakakage
Hear me out. Yes, both men are closer to age 30 than the front runners, and neither are currently ozeki due to unfortunate injuries—Wakatakakage’s coming before he could earn promotion and Kirishima’s, sadly, coming just after his ozeki rise.
BUT, both men, when healthy, are strong, technical, and tenacious. Both are former yusho winners (Kirishima won two just last year, don’t forget), and both had identical 12-3 records in this most recent Aki basho. To me this signals potential, even if the likelihood is not high. Both would have to earn (or re-earn) promotion to ozeki first, and then elevate their wrestling further while fending off a host of talented rivals, but crazier things have happened (see: Terunofuji’s career). If both men can preserve their good health long enough to sustain the runs they started in September, their shot at ozeki—and subsequently yokozuna—will be better than most.
Prospects:
Takerufuji, Atamifuji, Hakuoho
There are dozens of young rikishi who may unexpectedly become the next world beater in sumo, but Leonid won’t lend me his banzuke crystal ball, so there’s no point in making wild guesses.
Aw heck, let’s do it anyway. There are a trio of rikishi who, in my opinion, pass “the smell test” of a sumo star in the making, and they are debutant yusho winner Takerufuji, his baby-faced teammate Atamifuji, and the Boss’s protégé, Hakuoho.
Because he’s already held the Emperor’s Cup, it makes sense to me to start with Takerufuji, even though he’s (at the time of this writing) the lowest ranked of the three. The same age as Hoshoryu, he would likely already be making his own run at ozeki if not for that fateful ankle injury, but the good news is that the recovery process seems not to have diminished him whatsoever. His official comeback in Aki took the form of a dominant Juryo yusho, and if he’s not back in Makuuchi next basho, I fear for the second tier. He looks that strong, the proverbial unstoppable force who has yet to meet the immovable object, and unless another injury sidelines him, I think his bullet train oshi style could carry him all the way to sumo’s peak.
His teammate, Atamifuji, has had a quieter—yet more steady—rise, but he’s already got a pair of jun-yusho to his name and is now threatening for sanyaku promotion at the tender age of 22. Don’t let the baby face or the goofy pre-bout dance routine fool you. He’s BIG, he’s strong, and he’s exceptionally patient in his sumo for one so young. I fully expect Atami to threaten for ozeki promotion within the next two years, and from there, who knows his ceiling? Not I.
Lastly, I’d like to speak briefly on Hakuoho, the pride of (temporarily disbanded) Miyagino stable. The best sumo wrestler to ever do it thinks this kid’s got what it takes, so who am I to gainsay him? The only thing standing in this young man’s way is injuries, and to see all the tape on him, you can’t help but feel his hurt. Hakuoho’s initial rise into the salaried ranks was nothing short of impressive, with displays of technical polish you just don’t see in rikishi that young, and if he can get healthy, I fully expect to see him reassert that prowess against the top division again.
There are of course others with promise—Hiradoumi and Oho come to mind, as well as a slew of lower division youngsters who appear to have a future in the top division—but we haven’t the time for them all. I’m sure many will also protest the exclusion of the likes of Wakamotoharu and Daieisho, but in my opinion both are too old and too limited to make a legitimate run at ozeki, let alone yokozuna. As I said up above, this is my smell test and nothing more. Feel free to tell me in the comments who’s on your olfactory radar, and if 5 years down the road you happen to be right, save this post and rub my nose in it.
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Great article!
IMO, the list is Onosato vs the field and it’s not that close. He’s clearly better than the other two ozeki and still has room to grow.
Hoshoryu has never gotten 13 wins and Kotozakura has only made one legit yusho push so far.
Something that bolsters this view is that Onosato has remained fit and healthy so far. Everyone else seems to have issues come up.
I know the gap between Hakuho and Harumafuji was long, but it wasn’t 92 basho, which is over 15 years ;)
Where the heck did I get that number??? Should be 32 I think?
Hmm…If Onosato makes the rope there are other sumofan factions who are going to be spitting in their Natto..cause they think he’s already been carried to where he is now..wonder if he’s going to have to drag that dark Horse around with him endlessly…
I understand how some might still have a bad taste in their mouth from all the hype he had before he’d even made his pro debut, and I think it’s clear the JSA wants him to succeed, but he had to earn ozeki the same way as everyone else, and he did so beating the Yokozuna twice in a row. If he earns the rope in convincing fashion I don’t know how anyone will be able to deny him, especially if he keeps winning yusho.
Well yeah, “fans” who are invested in the idea of continued Mongolian dominance to unhealthy degrees have been throwing temper tantrums about Onosato of late. Haven’t really seen anybody else, and I suspect nobody in Japan actually cares what they think.
Sadly I feel that Hakuoho’s injuries woes are frequent enough to be deterministic for his career. In other words, if he holds it together enough to get to Takakeisho’s level, that would be a major achievement. Hopefully I’m wrong and he moves past the current injuries, but I don’t seem him making Yokozuna.
I’m agreeing with you. What’s troubling is that he’s not been a lock for a kachi-koshi in Juryo without the shoulder injury seeming to factor into his performance.
My head agrees with you both, but my heart still remembers the 19 year old kid who made light work of the maegashira ranks last July. Sports science is only getting better, and I think there are several examples (Terunofuji, Ura, Tochinoshin, Wakatakakage) that suggest a skilled rikishi isn’t necessarily doomed by injury woes early in their career. At 21 he’s still far too young to be written off, but I am worried for him.
The problem is that Hakuoho can’t seem to stay healthy, period. The guys you mentioned had very specific issues that were accessible to specific treatment. (And Terunofuji is just a massive outlier in everything.) Hakuoho’s been going from one issue to another on a near-monthly basis this year. That could cease to happen, but it’s just as likely that his body just isn’t made for the rigours of a professional career.
I think no human body is really made for continued sumo, except if one of your parents was a PET-bottle. For Hakuoho it might as well have been some ‚injury causes injury‘-chain, like obviously in Asanoyama‘s case. (Asanoyama, maybe another dark horse in a distance). If you are prohibited from taking a break for, let‘s say, different reasons, this will probably go on and on, if the first injury was really bad. Shoulder must be very difficult. Recently deceased Asahikuni had to resign from a firm-held Ozeki rank with a broken shoulder in the year 1979. Just finito.
Yeah, he’s beginning to look a bit like Howl’s Moving Castle..
Glad you’re not writing off Kirishima yet. Being two wins from the rank a year or two ago was a bit heartbreaking to watch, and his decline was even worse, injury or not. I had to check sumo reference to see how many recent yokozuna have been that close and came back later to earn the rank, and it looks like quite a few, including Terunofuji and Hakuho. So there is hope there.
But the other trend in the last 10 yokozuna or so is that some guys just beast their way right through the ozeki rank and get their rope within a year or less. I don’t think anyone will be too surprised if Onosato becomes one of those, even if some will grumble. The kid’s earning everything, and I don’t see that changing.
Onosato is as close to a Thanos-level inevitability as there can be in sumo, but I don’t think he’ll be the solo king of his generation. Kirishima is hypothetically only 1 – 2 basho away from re-earning ozeki, and I think he’s clearly talented enough to do it, even if history isn’t on his side. I hope he does. From there I’d like at least one other ozeki to step up and position himself as Onosato’s rival, but there’s really no telling who it might be.
Like almost everyone else I would have put Onosato in a category of his own.
As to the prospects I also have my doubts about Hakuoho and I‘m not sure whether Atamifuji really has the next steps in him. But he and Oho are still very young and unquestionably have great bodies for Sumo, therefore it doesn’t seem impossible for both of them.
I wonder if Aonishiki could be one of the prospects, too. At 125 kilos it‘s a heavy (!) task but his results are very straightforward so far. And, of course, Ama brought about 130 kilos to the scales when he reached the top rank. So it has to be allowed to dream for the Ukrainian!
Aonishiki is my favorite prospect from the lower divisions. As impressive as he’s been so far, we’ll learn a lot about his likely future trajectory when he fights sekitori for 15 days in November.
Aonishiki is DEFINITELY on my radar. The only reason I didn’t mention him by name is for the reason stated above: we haven’t even seen him compete a full 15 yet. He’s young and super skilled, but let’s see how he fares in Juryo and Makuuchi before we braid his rope.
Some favourite prospect of mine: for Nagoya basho Daiseizan seemed to exhale some victory frangrance base note. But the last four Juryo bouts were not adequate to that impression and he went MK. Maybe due to tough opponents, maybe for an undercover injury… With the Waka bros. as kind of mentors he might get his stuff together again – and will not have to face them ever (except for possible yusho conditions).
Daiseizan definitely has promise! Many rikishi need a basho or two to adjust to salaried status and the 15-bout schedule, plus he’s still very young. I’m sure he’ll get stronger. He looks like a top division prospect for sure.
Onosato obviously looks like the safe bet atm. He is a tough match for everyone and will only get better learning from his mistakes, although he fell 3 times for the same Uwatenage from Hoshoryu.
Other than him it’s really difficult. None of those guys (and that includes Onosato) has reached 13wins more than once and most didn’t even reach 13 yet.
Kotozakura with his style of sumo should be the most stable/consistent guy, but he needs to overcome the Phlegma he is showing at times.
Hoshoryu and Kirishima have the widest arsenal of tools and if they stay healthy should be able to consistently compete for the Yusho.
Wakatakakage ever making it to Yokozuna seems as likely to me as the Brooklyn Nets winning the NBA championship this year. He has two, only two double digit records in Sanyaku before his injury. He choked really hard (or maybe he is just a streaky guy) when an Ozeki run was a possibility.
As for Hakuoho … like others said already, he didn’t get back to his original form yet. He isn’t crushing Juryo … there is a real concern that injury will forever hinder him to realise his potential.
Takerufuji needs to get to the top of Makuuchi healthy as well. His sample against top competition so far is almost non existent. I too believe that he has a bright future.
With Atamifuji, Oho etc. .. I don’t know, if their ceiling is high enough, but they are young and could surprise, but that’s more of a mid/long term thing.
I wouldn’t be too surprised, if we get two new Yokozuna within one or two years.
Thanks Thomas.
I briefly talk to Hakuho (when he was in Toronto in 2023) and specifically asked him about possibility of being promoted to youkozuna for Hakuoho and Hoshoryu.
For Hukuoho he wasn’t sure because primarily he got an injury and secondly because he is too young.
For Hoshoryu he said the man definitely can be a yokozuna one day because of his heart, kinda strong intention to be better rikishi.
But of course some thing were changed for the last tournaments.
Paul
Well who would know better than the Boss! Hoshoryu is one of my favorites to watch so I hope he continues to get better.
It seems to me that in this sport, not being injury-prone matters just as much as strength and skill do. Onosato looks very good so far, while the signs for Hakuoho are not good and I also have a feeling those thin legs of his will keep giving Takerufuji problems. With Kirishima, the question also is whether this neck thing has truly healed, in which case he’ll get ozeki back very soon and have plenty of time to try for yokozuna – but if it becomes a recurrent issue, it’ll stop him from getting anywhere sadly. Hoshoryu is the one where I think it might be down to his head rather than his body…
I think it’s Onosato, then a gap to Hoshoryu and Kiribayama, then a gap to the rest. Kotozakura to me could do it only through the absence of anyone else to step up. Hoshoryu feels like he should be able to manage it but for his head and Kiribayama should already once have been able to manage it but for his body.
In a healthy sumo ecosystem, Kotozakura feels like a good long term Ozeki, a sort of Kaio figure or the type of Ozeki that Takayasu/Mitakeumi should have been but for injuries, although he lacks the multi-dimensionality of those guys. Wakatakakage still feels like he can get to Ozeki although I have some questions about his ring sense.
Beyond that, I’m not actually sure there are any other Ozeki in the top two divisions right now, nevermind Yokozuna. Need to see a bit more of Takerufuji, sample size is way too small.
I hear you about Kotozakura but I’m not sure it’s totally fair. Before Aki he’d had a year straight of double digit wins, including a playoff jun-yusho with Terunofuji. To me his size and style are perfect to be dominant, he just needs to show more killer instinct against the best of the best. But I agree that like Kisenosato or Kotoshogiku he could also turn out to be a stable ozeki for several years. It will come down to his fighting spirit IMO.
My gut instinct on him is just that he’s coming into his physical prime, but I also think he’s a little bit late to the party. He’s 27 next month, I just don’t know where the back to back yusho are going to come from in the next 18-24 months. Maybe he’s able to bide his time a bit like Kisenosato did, although Kisenosato was challenging from a younger age and even with his incredible body of work as an Ozeki (arguably one of the best Ozeki ever), didn’t even start to really knock on the door until that great final year of his Ozeki tenure.
That all being said, it’s probably fair that there could always be a Kakuryu type in the system who takes a while to put it together. Kakuryu also reached Ozeki at a similar age to Kotozakura. He was an Ozeki for 2 years in a much more challenging era so it feels like that’s an interesting comp to watch over the next couple years.
I don’t think anyone on this list but maybe Onosato (albeit quite a bit later) would have made it to Ozeki in the last decade given their current form/strength. But there is also a chance that some guys and I’m specifically thinking of Hoshoryu here, would have also grown more against stronger competition.
With the near permanent absence of Teru the door is white open for anyone who can muster two strong tournaments. I’m so used to seeing 13+ win Yusho, that I don’t even feel confident that a 12–3 Yusho and jun Yusho would be enough, but that’s the likely kind of results we are going to see.
Yeah, Kisenosato had some good competition at the time. Kotozakura just looks a little less mobile to me, and a small difference can make a big difference, if you know what I mean..
Hi Thomas (if that is your preferred name)!
Terrific Article! I enjoyed reading this and all of the responses! I don’t qualify to really comment as I am fairly new, but this is why I LOVE THIS SITE!!! I learn from everyone and everyone seems to give their honest opinions. I really liked all of the comments and always appreciate articles that get everyone involved in one way or another.
Thank you!
Thank you! I am always learning, too. A lot of great knowledge in the comments.