News from the infirmary as Hokutofuji checked out and will compete today. He will face Ryuden.
Takerufuji won the Juryo yusho, even with his loss to Kaiyo today because Chiyoshoma lost to Asakoryu. The big question is whether a win tomorrow will be enough to earn promotion to Makuuchi.
NHK videos are here: Juryo, Makuuchi Part I and Part II.
Makuuchi Action
Nishikifuji (7-7) defeated Tokihayate (9-5). Tokihayate tried to pull Nishikifuji out, over the bales but Nishikifuji was wise to it and forced Tokihayate out. Yorikiri.
Hokutofuji (7-5-2) defeated Ryuden (7-7). Hokutofuji tried several slapdowns. They didn’t work. Then he tried tsuppari to drive Ryuden back. That didn’t work. Then they tried Ryuden’s way, with a left-hand inside. THAT FINALLY WORKED. Hokutofuji took the bull by the horns and beat him at his own game. Yes, I mix my metaphors but I don’t care because it was a great bout and Hokutofuji took it to Ryuden like I’ve never seen before. Welcome back, Thumper! Two battered, exhausted warriors probably wish today was senshuraku. Shitatenage.
Tamawashi (7-7) defeated Takarafuji (9-5). Tamawashi plowed forward and overpowered Takarafuji. Oshidashi.
Roga (8-6) defeated Kinbozan (4-10). Migi-yotsu. Kinbozan drove into Roga but Roga stood his ground well and stopped before the bales. Kinbozan seemed to tire quickly. Roga tried an uwatenage. Though it failed, he dragged Kinbozan to the bales. From there, Kinbozan knew he was toast and stepped back over the tawara. Yorikiri.
Onokatsu (6-8) defeated Ichiyamamoto (7-7). Onokatsu got his left-hand inside. When Ichiyamamoto tried an ill-timed pull, Onokatsu drove him back and out. Yorikiri.
Oshoma (9-5) defeated Kitanowaka (5-9). Oshoma got a firm grip behind Kitanowaka’s head and pulled him forward. Hatakikomi.
Kagayaki (2-12) defeated Endo (8-6). Ishikawa prefecture was getting hit with a huge amount of rainfall. Meanwhile, two of their native sons face each other on the dohyo. Kagayaki battered Endo about the head and drove him back and out. Oshidashi.
Midorifuji (7-7) defeated Bushozan (4-10). Midorifuji repeatedly set Bushozan up for a pull. He finally got him on the fourth attempt. Hikiotoshi.
Churanoumi (9-5) defeated Sadanoumi (7-7). Churanoumi hit Sadanoumi hard at the tachiai. Sadanoumi pulled Churanoumi back to the red tassel but Churanoumi kept his opponent square in front and drove him over the edge. Yorikiri.
Gonoyama (6-8) defeated Mitakeumi (4-10). Gonoyama pressed Mitakeumi to the red tassel. Mitakeumi attempted his shift at the bales but it failed. I am not a fan of this style of sumo. Oshidashi.
Halftime
Wakamotoharu (10-4) defeated Kotoshoho (6-8). Hidari-yotsu. Once Wakamotoharu locked on with his right hand, he drove forward and crushed Kotoshoho over the bales under the black tassel. Yoritaoshi.
Atamifuji (6-8) defeated Ura (9-5). From under the black tassel, Ura put his head down and drove forward but Atamifuji wisely shifted his angle of attack by stepping to the side. Atamifuji then used Ura’s momentum to run him out the other side of the ring with the red tassel. Ura needs new brakes. Oshidashi.
Nishikigi (11-3) defeated Oho (8-6). Nishikigi met Oho with a forearm to the throat. This got Oho into reverse and he never recovered. Nishikigi forced him down under the green tassel. Yoritaoshi.
Takanosho (4-10) defeated Meisei (4-10). Meisei drove forward and Takanosho shoved him over to the side. Both men are probably looking forward to a lighter schedule in Kyushu. Tsukiotoshi.
Tobizaru (5-9) defeated Shonannoumi (3-11). Tobizaru pulled and Shonannoumi pursued him across the ring. Shonannoumi went down and Tobizaru flew into the crowd. Gunbai Shonannoumi. Upon review, Tobizaru brought Shonannoumi down before stepping out. Sashi-chigae, Tobizaru won. Sokubiotoshi sounds fancy but it really just looked like a run-of-the-mill pulldown.
Sanyaku
Wakatakakage (11-3) defeated Daieisho (8-6). Daieisho did his thing but Wakatakakage waited until he tired, then tackled him. Yoritaoshi.
Shodai (10-4) defeated Hiradoumi (6-8). Shodai met Hiradoumi’s tachiai head-on and reached up front with a maemitsu, then yanked Hiradoumi forward and down. Where has this Shodai been? Hiradoumi makekoshi. Hikiotoshi.
Kirishima (11-3) defeated Takayasu (10-4). Takayasu hit Kirishima with tsuppari to the face. Kirishima shifted left to avoid and Takayasu fell forward. In an instant, Takayasu went from a bar-fight to starring in a Life-Alert commercial, “I’ve fallen, and I can’t get up.” Tsukiotoshi.
Kotozakura (8-6) defeated Abi (4-10). Kotozakura was steady against Abi and picked up his kachi-koshi. Abi-zumo might have more success in Kyushu against the rank-and-file. Oshidashi.
Onosato (13-1) defeated Hoshoryu (7-7). He made this look routine as he shoved Hoshoryu off the edge under the black tassel. Hoshoryu landed in a heap next to Nishonoseki-oyakata. Oshidashi.
Wrap-up
Onosato Yusho. What a dominant victory. He absolutely blitzed Hoshoryu. Very convincing, not only for a deserving yusho but surely Ozeki promotion will follow. With all of the recent flux at the rank of Ozeki, I am hopeful for a period of stability and for a ready heir to the ailing Terunofuji.
Shonosuke turned 65 and will hand in his gunbai after the action is over tomorrow. Asked for a memorable bout and he mentioned Hakuho’s final yusho against Terunofuji, both men were undefeated coming into the day.
Onosato will fight Abi tomorrow, the lone high-ranker that he has not fought. There is no yusho race, so, Kirishima will fight Daieisho and no need to bring up Takayasu, Nishikigi, or Wakatakakage.
Shodai! 10-4 going into senshuraku! Nishikigi seems to be over whatever had been troubling him the last couple of tournaments. I hope Meisei will have a similar recovery but he might not fall far enough with 4-5 wins.
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I thought Takerufuji’s yusho and strong record would guarantee promotion to 1st division, considering there’s going to be many opening available
It might depend on tomorrow. He’s quite low in the division and when I looked at Sumo DB it seemed 13-14 wins were needed for promotion. I don’t think as many will go down as people think. 4, maybe 5?
Don‘t forget Takakeisho’s retirement.
Apart from him there are five rikishi in great danger or already lost.
And that’s not even counting Nishikifuji, who might even win places with a 7 to 8…
I mean, who really knows after last time!
;-)
If we look at the candidates:
Takakeisho-retired
Shirokuma, Kitanowaka- already on the barge
Kagayaki, Bushozan, Kinbozan – at very high risk
Nishikifuji – needs a win tomorrow, otherwise he boards the barge
vs:
Chiyosoma, – already in Makuuchi
Tokihayate, Shishi – next in line
Asakoryu and Takerufuji – deserving candidates
nobody else deserves promotion
I think Takerufuji has a good case for promotion, even if Nishikifuji wins
I think Nishikifuji is safe. 7-8 often retains their rank.
Oh, good call! I had forgotten him. Several of the bottom guys saved their positions though. I’m not sure if Bushozan will drop.
If he wins tomorrow, there’s little doubt he comes up. If he loses, it’s more dicey.
We could see like half of Juryo exchanged next tournament. I see like 7 demotion candidates. Hatsuyama will probably get a nod despite being one rank too low. Crazy tournament.
Oho (or Shodai) for komosubi . I would had preferred Wakatakakage + Wakamotoharu duo, but I guess we will have to wait a few months
Where is the third Waka brother? Can’t remember his t.
Wakatakamoto is in Makushita. Makushita 35 West, this tournament. He finished with a 3-4 record.
Onosato finally solved Hoshoryu. The solution? Good old Abizumo!!
Congrats and hope u be a ‘Real’ ozeki.
Great round-up, thank you Andy. I caught the last 50 minutes on NHK’s live broadcast this morning. Well done Onosato! Even after his false start, he was much quicker off the mark than Hoshoryu and just pushed him with barely a moment for Hoshoryu to respond. Fingers crossed for Onosato’s promotion to Ozeki. When might this be announced?
Kirishima looks in a much better space this basho, and with him, WTK and others aiming at Sanyaku promotions, interesting times !
Is someone able to tell me why Takerufuji wouldn’t be promoted to Makuuchi after winning the Juryo division? Is it because he’s so far down the Juryo rankings? Does he have to be in the top 5? I’d love to see him back in Makuuchi. Thanks 😊
I think Onosato’s Ozeki promotion is guaranteed now that he won Yusho. 32 or more wins coupled with Yusho at 3rd basho in the Ozeki run has had a 100% success probability for Ozeki promotion in the past
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=4&sum_wins=28&show_sum=on&form1_rank=k-s&form2_rank=k-s&form3_rank=k-s&form3_y=on&form4_highlight=on&form4_rank=o&sort_by=sum_wins
And he’ll go in with at least 34 wins. All but one of that list in your query went on to yokozuna status. None of them won 2 out of 3 though. This kid’s special.
I’m wondering how he will handle make-koshi. He got 9 wins at Sekiwake last tournament and it felt like he went make-koshi.
The way he’s going he’ll just have to withdraw before it happens, because he’ll be a yokozuna.
Wouldn’t that be nuts?
I mean he’s been a pro less than 2 years, in Makuuchi less than a year, and already won 2 basho. What hasn’t been nuts about him?
Very true.
I just looked up Asashoryu. Dude had one 3-4 in Makushita and one 7-8 at Komusubi, otherwise all kachi-koshi until the first tournament he had to withdraw from as a yokozuna.
Funnily enough this search may come into play next basho with Kirishima. 13 wins gets him back to ozeki with 33 wins, but 12 with the basho should do as well.
I like the way you think. But for Kirishima to return, I think they will set the bar higher. He’ll probably need more than 33 wins. Zensho yusho would probably force a conversation but I don’t think they’ll be ready to re-promote him anytime soon.
I don’t see any instances where that’s ever happened to someone at sekiwake in the first basho and 10+ wins in the last. 33+ with all three as sekiwake and 10+ in the final one has been enough.
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=4&sum_wins=33&show_sum=on&form1_rank=k-s&form2_rank=k-s&form3_rank=k-s&form4_highlight=on&form4_rank=o&sort_by=sum_wins
Probably all academic as 13 wins isn’t likely, but you never know.
Miyabiyama, 2006. 34 wins over three tournaments, 10-14-10, not re-promoted. The first basho was at Komusubi but we have seen that Sekiwake rank for the first basho is not a firm requirement.
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=842
I just would not be surprised if the Kyokai passes over Kirishima at Kyushu, even if he manages 12 or 13 wins.
I completely agree with this. It is really not certain how the re-promotion to Ozeki functions.
There are 3 denials to Ozeki promotion with 33 wins at Komusubi-Sekiwake and at least 10 wins in 3rd basho as Sekiwake, but these are all 1st promotions to Ozeki not re-promotions. The only denial at 34 wins is Miyabiyama 2006 which is a re-promotion and there are to date 13 Ozeki promotions to Ozeki which are 1st promotions. Looking at this it really begs the question is the re-promotion to Ozeki treated similarly to the 1st promotions to Ozeki. Miyabiyama re-promotion denial could be an outlier, but so far it is the only denial of Ozeki promotion with required qualifications met at 34 wins. In Miyabiyama’s case the lack of Yushos i.e. he never won Yusho at top division could also be a reason for denial, or his record as Ozeki: 8 tournaments with 9-6 as his best result when Ozeki.
The only successful re-promotions to Ozeki happened in 1977 Kaiketsu and 2021 Terunofuji, both with 36 wins and Yusho won during the Ozeki run.
This just shows that determinations about Ozeki re-promotion based on previous Ozeki promotions, which are almost completely 1st promotions, could be misleading.
And Terunofuji’s repromotion is a special case because of his injury and the way he fell deep in the lower divisions and clawed his way back. It was almost like a fresh promotion.
Maybe that one was like others were mentioning – too many ozeki. The basho Miyabiyama hit 34 wins there were already 5(!!) in place, and none of them were even make-koshi.
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=200607#M
I wonder whether 3 existing ozeki would be enough. Might be interesting to find some articles from the time.
We’ve had 6 Ozeki before. It’s been a bit of a revolving door lately and I am sure it’s not only foreign fans who’ve noticed.
Wikipedia has interesting background on Miyabiyama
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyabiyama_Tetsushi
“Miyabiyama’s promotion [to ozeki] was controversial. The Sumo Association’s decision was not unanimous, with three of the ten directors present at the meeting voting against the promotion. Sakaigawa-oyakata (former yokozuna Sadanoyama), in particular, was reported to have felt it was too soon as Miyabiyama had only been in makuuchi for just over a year, and had not yet won a top division title.[1] In the end the doubters were proved correct as Miyabiyama lasted just eight tournaments in the rank, never scoring more than 9 wins, before being demoted in the wake of two consecutive losing records. He was one of the shortest-lived ōzeki on record (not counting wrestlers who have quickly been promoted to yokozuna).”
So he was a lackluster ozeki who the sumo association had their doubts on to begin with. That surely factored into re-promotion denial, and isn’t anywhere near the same situation as Kirishima, who was unanimous, two wins away from the yokozuna rank with one basho as ozeki, and basically lost his rank due to injury.
Everyone loses their rank due to injury of some sort. Tochinoshin, Takayasu, Shodai, Mitakeumi, …. 8 basho would be a luxury nowadays. If the three were correct with Miyabiyama, maybe there should have been more scrutiny with all of the recent promotions. It’s not intended to be a revolving door rank with press conferences and fish dinners every year for the same guy.
Iksumo is the banzuke specialist at Tachiai. But I can tell U the basics I‘ve learnt from him.
If a rikishi has more wins than losses he goes up in the ranks and with more losses he goes down (there have been exceptions even to this rule…).
To „calculate“ the probable new position of Takerufuji U have to subtract his losses from his wins and again subtract the result from his current rank which is Juryo 11.
If he won tomorrow he would have eleven more wins than losses (13-2) which would bring him to a virtual Juryo 0. That’s better than Juryo 1 and should mean promotion to Juryo, if (and that’s the big if) there are enough open slots there after all the maths.
If he lost tomorrow (12-3) his prospected position for the next basho would be Juryo 2 (which results from 9 subtracted from Juryo 11). Therefore most certainly no promotion to the highest division.
Wow, many words for a quite simple calculation!
Here‘s the formula: current rank + wins – losses = new rank.
But don‘t forget, this is only an approximation; the Sumo powers decide every single case.
Holy moly, the above formula is wrong, sorry. The text is correct but it translates into:
Current rank MINUS wins PLUS losses equals the theoretical new rank.
😀 Thank you herbern!
Thank you herbern 🙂
Day 15 crystal ball —
Will Hoshoryu avoid kadoban? (Only by slapping both Ozeki with the ridiculing “hachinana” mark)
Will Nishikifuji board the Juryo barge with a loss? (Should have been ticketed for the barge last time)
Will Takerufuji get the nod back to the big show? (Win — possibly yes, Lose –probably no)
I see three definite demotions (Kitanowaka, Shirokuma, Kagayaki), four if Nishikifuji loses.
Will Aoiyama join Takakeisho on the intai train? A likely demotion to Makushita may make up his mind. He seemingly just doesn’t have the fighting spirit any more.
I see five probable demotions to Makushita (Oshoumi, Chiyosakae, Myogiryu, Aoiyama, and Asanoyama)
Onosato – Ozeki! Daieisho to Sekiwake, Shodai and Wakamotoharu to Komusubi, WTK to M1
Bushozan and Kinbozan are both 4-10 at M12, in line for demotion with a loss. Kinbozan fights Shishi (8-6 at J2) who needs a win for promotion (an exchange bout?). With Takakeisho retiring there’s at least 4 spots, so Takerufuji should get promoted with a 13-2.
Only two at the top of Juryo slated for promotion: Chiyoshoma 10-4 at J1 and Tokihayate 9-5 at J2. So maybe Nishikifuji stays up with a loss, and maybe even Bushozan with a loss. Also, if Asakoryu wins to get to 11-4 at J8, they could give him a promotion.
Yup, missed Kiryuko, agree that Bushozan & Kinbozan need wins to stay off the barge.
Asakoryu getting promoted will take a lot of “if’s” to get done.
Just 2 ifs.
1) If there are 4 guaranteed openings: Takakeisho retirement, Kagayaki (2-12 at M11), Shirokuma (4-9-2 at M16), Kitanowaka (5-9 at M16).
2) If Asakoryu wins to get to 11-4 at J8. Only Takerufuji will have a better record. Above J8, the only possible winning records are Chiyoshoma (10-4 at J1), Tokihayate (9-5 at J2), Shishi (8-6 at J2), Hakuoho (7-7 at J5). Chiyoshoma and Tokihayate will be promoted, Shishi if he beats Kinbozan (creating another opening), and Takerufuji with a win.
What about Onosho. I’m not sure one win is enough, but then again with the intai plus 6 other demotion candidates, they will probably lack people to bring up.
he’s fine by the numbers in any case, and like you say, there’ll be seven openings and at most 6 guys to bring up as it is
For Makushita demotions there’s also Kiryuko 4-10 at J12. So, Kotoshoho’s brother Kototebakari 4-2 at Ms5 should get promoted with a win. He’s matched up against Aoiyama (5-9 at J13). Other Ms-J bouts: Tochitaikai (3-3 at Ms1) vs. Kiryuko (4-10 at J12); Wakaikari (3-3 at Ms2) vs. Oshoumi (6-8 at J14).
Thanks so much for those links, Andy, they are SO helpful! And I get to practice my kanji reading a little as I try matching names to faces on those less familiar photos.
I am a Hoshoryu fan so sad about the manner of his defeat today but he looked great yesterday. Get that kachikoshi tomorrow! Also glad Kirishima has been doing so much better, hope he can get back to Ozeki. Love to see the Onami brothers doing well too.
And congratulations to Onosato for yusho and probable promotion, very convincing wins, youngster. Stay healthy.
KIntamayama is in Japan now so maybe that’s why Shodai is doing well! Glad for Moti.
Congrats to Onosato! Reaching (presumed) Ozeki before you’ve even grown a proper topknot is quite a feat.
“He went from bar fight to life alert commercial” may be your greatest line ever. I lol’d.
The current order for promotion to Komusubi is: Wakamotoharu (10-4 at M3), Shodai (10-4 at M4), Wakatakakage (11-3 at M7).
Wakamotoharu fights Ura (9-5 at M5), but even with a win Ura can’t pass Motoharu.
Similarly, Shodai fights Oho (8-6 at M2), but Oho can’t pass Shodai.
Wakatakakage fights Takayasu. With a win and a Shodai loss, we might get the brothers at Komusubi.
Lots of changes coming up for Kyushu, gonna have a lot to mull over before the GTB deadline
I‘m pretty sure that Shodai and Oho fight for the second Komusubi promotion (Wakamotoharu has his secured) and Wakatakakage can do however he likes, but won’t get promoted. He is simply too low to overtake either a 9 win Oho or a 11win Shodai.
I think U haven’t got the maths completely right, but swat has.
Wakamotoharu hasn’t secured his Komusubi promotion yet, he needs either a win or losses by Shodai and his brother.
And Wakatakakage can overtake both Shodai and Oho, but only if the latter wins.
I wouldn’t be so completely confident. The winner of Shodai/Oho probably goes up no matter what, so that doesn’t really factor. If Shodai wins, he will be more promotable than Oho, if he loses, he will be less promotable than Wakamotoharu and Oho will be promotable.
About Wakamotoharu, he has probably already done enough. In the last 70 years there have been 2 occasions where a 10 win M3 hasn’t gone up, and that was purely due to lack of room in san’yaku on both occasions: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&op==&sum_wins=10&sum_range=1&form1_rank=M3
As for a 12 win M7, it’s likely but still an edge case. Leonid might have a stronger opinion on this but I think his best case scenario with the current calculus is still M1. Although in a couple hours it will be a moot point and we can all start filling out GTB’s. I encourage you to share yours here in the comments!! :)
Shodai and Ura played their role perfectly and therefore we should now get the brothers at Komusubi. I like it.
One thing is sure in my mind, unless injuries, Onosato and Takerufuji will share sumo dominance for many years to come…
I think Oho will be right there, too.
I was really impressed by Oho‘s progress this basho although todays bout was a fail. Crossing my fingers that he won’t fail back to old habits.
Wow, that would surprise me very much. He has the body, of course, and he is still very young, but he also has been around for almost four years now and hasn‘t reached Sanyaku yet.
Are there examples of late bloomers in Sumo who went from zero to hero?
(U’re talking dominance, that means at least a Kisenosato career, IMO.)
Oho’s trajectory is somewhat like Kakuryu’s was at this point in Oho’s career. Kakuryu joined at 16 and made it to makuuchi at 21; Oho joined at 18 and made it to makuuchi at 22. After debuting in makuuchi it took Kakuryu 13 basho to get a solid kachi-koshi at the top of the joi; it has taken Oho 14 basho to do the same. As a maegashira Kakuryu was generally higher ranked than Oho but their scores are pretty comparable. If Oho’s career trajectory stays on the Kakuryu path he’ll spend the next three years as a sanyaku mainstay with occasional dips into the upper joi and then makes ozeki.
U‘re right about Onosato, of course.
As to Takerufuji we‘ll have to wait and see until he fights with the joi. His body is more like Kirishima‘s or Hoshoryu‘s, therefore I don’t really expect him to dominate the field.
On the other hand his body is also almost like Asashoryu‘s was!
In any case he has to be the second great favorite for the Kyushu basho when he will fight from the lower Maegashira ranks again.
It was interesting to see Kotozakura and Onosato the other day. Similar weight and height. However Onosato’s weight is down low. Perfect for sumo. He currently depends a lot on that build to win. However, as his technique improves, he will become extremely difficult to beat. If he stays healthy, he should be dominating sumo for the next 5 to 10 years.
I’m looking forward to seeing it. Finally the changing of the guard.
Made my Onosato Rally Towel Yesterday! Wow Onosato!!! Nishonoseki better order TWO LARGE FISH!!!!
Totally agree with you PMF and Andy – need to include Oho and make it a trio!
Andy – thank you so much for the links – mine worked great! I live in Southern
California – Inland Area.
As Always, Thank You Andy, Iksumo and Everyone at Team Tachiai – Best Coverage
Always Accurate and love the interspersed humor!!!
If possible, Andy, I would love to see the pictures of Both Fish!!!
Looking forward to Iksumo’s Crystal Ball.
Something I haven’t seen mentioned much – if you watched the lead up to the musubi-no-ichiban, I felt like Onosato absolutely matta’d on purpose. Hoshoryu is prone to mental gaffes but he has had several matches where he has looked absolutely dialled in and it was pretty clear he was fired up for this one. But he did not look happy at all about the matta and he did not have the same spring-loaded tachiai that we are used to seeing from good Hoshoryu. I think Onosato disturbed his rhythm completely and then blasted him away while he was in his head about it. Yusho and promotion aside, it really felt like Onosato had a game plan and executed it completely.
Yes, Onosato had a game plan and that was Abisumo.
Whether a matta was part of the plan we‘ll never know.
Onosato explained it with his knowing the tachiai would be very important and therefore jumping the gun, which seems very plausible to me.
Hmm… makes me wonder about today. Onosato matta’d again with Abi. He still lost at the tachiai but I wonder if he wanted to disrupt Abi.
Yesterday the yusho with Abisumo and today flattened by the original. Quite funny.
Great Observation Josh!