Tonight is when the basho should get serious. The heavy-hitting, big guns take aim at each other tonight through senshuraku. Terunofuji still leads with Ichinojo but he will begin to face the meet of his schedule tonight while Ichinojo will face…checks notes…Nishikigi. These are the situations that completely overturn our preconceptions, where the odds makers go broke and the 100:1 brings home the Kentucky Derby. On with today’s preview.
Tonight’s bouts
Mitoryu vs. Tsurugisho: Mitoryu will visit from Juryo while Tsurugisho hopes to avoid dropping back into the second division. With Chiyomaru and Daiamami’s make-koshi already, it looks like there will be at least two open positions. Ryuden is firm in his promotion while Mitoryu will be auditioning to take a slot. Tsurugisho will likely be safe with one more win but he may drop if he loses all of his bouts. As such, I expect this to be a hot one. Even better, both men are migi yotsu-style wrestlers, so it’s strength versus strength. I wouldn’t be surprised to see tricks at the tachiai or a long lean-fest, or both!
Terutsuyoshi vs. Oho: Terutsuyoshi will have an up-hill battle. Oho comes into this bout with an opportunity to claim his first kachi-koshi record in the top division. He’s also got a significant size advantage. Oho’s a pusher-thruster so he’ll not be looking to catch Terutsuyoshi for a throw, but to beat him with tsuppari or shove him out. It is a first-time meeting so Terutsuyoshi’s novelty and tricks might give Oho fits but Oho beat Enho both times they faced in Juryo. Given the motivation and size factor, I’m expecting an Oho win here tonight.
Yutakayama vs. Midorifuji: Midorifuji is katasukashi-boy. Yutakayama has never won with katasukashi. Neither are particularly strong yotsu-wrestlers, preferring a brawl. Therefore, I expect a wide-ranging brawl, going around the ring. Midorifuji is on the cusp of kachi-koshi, Yutakayama has more work to do so both will be motivated to win. Midorifuji has won their only previous meeting…by katasukashi. I think he picks up win #2 here.
Myogiryu vs. Meisei: Myogiryu has his kachi-koshi. Meisei will secure his tonight. Given the slow pace with all of the kyujo wrestlers, I’ll be half-surprised if one or the other doesn’t take a nap. I expect a quick, forgettable bout.
Chiyotairyu vs. Onosho: Onosho is a bit susceptible to hatakikomi and Chiyotairyu loves to dish it out. Five of Chiyotairyu’s six wins over Onosho have employed the slapdown. So, we’ll expect a pull. The only mystery will be whether Onosho falls for it this time. Even money here.
Shimanoumi vs Chiyomaru: Shimanoumi is having a terrible tournament. Given the kyujo and performance of Juryo wrestlers, though, he’s likely already safe from demotion but the possibility still lies there. He could ensure that with one or two more wins. Chiyomaru is make-koshi from the bottom rank. He’s got the tiniest sliver of hope to remain in the division but I don’t expect him to go at this with as much gusto as Shimanoumi. Both are oshi-tsuki strength, but have some capability on the belt. Shimanoumi is a bit stronger on the belt so I think he’ll go for it and find a way to force Chiyomaru out.
Tochinoshin vs. Chiyoshoma: Double henka. This is it. I may have called this bout this way before but this time it’s really going to happen.
Nishikifuji vs. Tobizaru: Another first-time bout here. Both men are kachi-koshi but Nishikifuji will really want to improve his position on the banzuke and not be in such a perilous position. This will also be prime to claim a few crisp 10,000 yen notes from kensho-kin. Nishikifuji will want to catch Tobizaru and keep him from moving but he’s certainly prone to falling for a pulldown. I’m going against the numbers and against the excitement, though. The odds makers are probably favoring Tobizaru in this one but I’m going with Nishikifuji. It should be a good bout, though.
Daiamami vs. Sadanoumi: Sadanoumi will win this.
Endo vs. Takarafuji: This is a great matchup and the biggest rivalry of the day. After years of Kisenosato vs Kotoshogiku it’s very odd for me to look at this in that same way but I think this could be a classic bout. We’ll get a grapple here, not a brawl, that’s for sure.
Tamawashi vs. Ura: This is Tamawashi’s all day. He’s won 4 of their 5 previous meetings. There will be no novelty here.
Nishikigi vs. Ichinojo: Ichinojo is having a great tournament. Nishikigi started the year in Juryo. Yes, he’s got a kachi-koshi record and has been fighting well recently. Yes, he beat Ichinojo the last time they fought but that was his only victory in seven tries. Ichinojo will want this one more.
Kiribayama vs. Okinoumi: Okinoumi’s longevity has been remarkable. Kiribayama is the up-and-comer and still has a chance at kachikoshi. I think Harumafuji 2.0 claims the win here.
Hokutofuji vs. Abi: Both men are an even 6-6. That’s quite the accomplishment for Hokutofuji but Abi’s eyes are set for a higher level and his capabilities are almost there. Hokutofuji will be sent, tumbling from the dohyo while Abi is on his way to 9 wins.
Hoshoryu vs. Wakamotoharu: This will be a great, entertaining grapple. Hoshoryu will probably pull it out with a throw or a trip but Wakamotoharu has been developing into a real, quality competitor at this level.
Aoiyama vs. Daieisho: Aoiyama will not be pulling his punches today but he will likely execute a full-blown pull. Will Daieisho be ready for it? I think he will.
Takakeisho vs. Shodai: As much as it pains me…well, you likely don’t want to know what I think about Shodai and this great run of his. Regardless, it comes to an end tonight. Takakeisho is no Aoiyama.
Terunofuji vs. Wakatakakage: Wakatakakage has not been having a great tournament. His Ozeki run is pretty much toast and in Terunofuji, he will face an opponent he has not beaten since Juryo…back in Osaka 2020…before Covid really kicked in. If he wants to start a new run, he will really need to win out. Today is THE DAY. Defeating the Yokozuna will get the buzz going again. He’s not going to be foolhardy and let himself get ensnared by those long arms. He’s going to fight smart and wear Terunofuji out. Who are we kidding. Terunofuji is going to win yet another title.
Our best recent precedent for Shimanoumi is Ikioi, who went 3-12 from M9 in 2020 and dropped to Juryo. They had to reach down to bring up J5 Ichinojo, who was 9-6 so not normally promotable, to replace him. I doubt Shimanoumi gets to stay if he doesn’t win out, unless the remaining Juryo contenders have really disastrous three closing days.
I scheduled this in the morning and didn’t have a chance to revise it after our earlier chat. But this is a great example. It sure would add to his motivation tonight.
well, the top of Juryo is having an absolutely disastrous basho. Ryuden ofcourse is safe. Hidenoumi is one loss away from a makekoshi. Both J2 have already accomplished that. Kagayaki sits at 6-6, daishoho is already makekoshi. At J4 Asanowaka is 5-7, even if he wins out … Mitoryu and CHiyonokuni are 7-5 and Bushozan at J6w with an 8-4 record is probably looking like the 2nd best candidate (score+performance) atm.
Getting 3 promotable records looks like a challenge atm.
I agree. All I’m saying is that anyone in the top half of juryo with a kk can be brought up to replace an incumbemt with a sufficiently bad rank-record combo, even if they’re not promotable by the numbers. Daiamami is already impossible to keep, Chiyomaru will be with one more loss, and Shimanoumi with two. Any of the above Juryo guys can replace them if they kk.
I would actually love to hear what you think of Shodai’s recent run, Andy.
Apparently, after his 1-4 start, Hakuho told him he needs to warm up before his bouts . No, seriously, that happened.
Also the scathing comments about the Ozerki from the former Kitanofuji after day five.
I thought I heard on NHK that Hakuho’s advice was after day 3. Certainly not worth arguing about whether it was day 3 or 5. Regardless, something has lit a fire under both Ozeki.
Nishkigi’s stable out? Two fusens in 5 & 6 suggest so…
Yup. You’re right. Wow, lots of kyujo tonight.
Is Isenoumi Stable (Nishkigi) kyujo?
yes and Tamawashi’s
Freebies for Ichinojo and Ura then.
Good point; Ichinojo stays at least tied for the lead without a fight.
And Tamawashi’s iron man streak ends 😢
apparently the shimpan department is saying they’d like it to continue and not count this as an absence…
Yup. And Tamawashi and all the Oitekaze boys.
How can they still justify finishing the basho with 8 rikishi dropping out for day 13? Any results now are a sham. The July records need to be wiped clean as if this tournament never happened.
“The show must go on.”
one more shoe to drop (Isegahama)
Oh, that would be a nightmare.
Hope we get to senshuraku (and a playoff!) without any more withdrawals.
Makes me worry also about the rikishi who are left, how does it feel to go into a bout of heavy panting into someone’s face when you know that covid is everywhere.
Wishing health to all.
Will be interesting if Mitakeumi and Daieisho each save rank by COVID.
Hope this doesn’t become a new strategy, Abi and Wakatakakage please don’t take notice.
Daiamami is the big one for me. The precedent is place on the banzuke is frozen, but he was already makekoshi and was the captain for the Juryo barge. Perhaps the committee’s decision will be easier because of the terrible performances at the top of Juryo? Good grief, what a mess.