Natsu Standings, Day 14

Your humble analyst was otherwise occupied for much of the day, but I wanted to bring these series of posts to a close with a final update going into Day 15.

Yusho race

Terunofuji and Takanosho lead with 11 wins, followed by Daieisho and Sadanoumi with 10. Everyone else has been eliminated from contention. A victory by either leader eliminates the chasers, giving us either a clear champion or a playoff between the leading duo. Losses by both leaders would give us at least a 3-way playoff for the cup, since Sadanoumi has been matched with Takanosho. Daieisho could also join the playoff by beating Shimanoumi.

Ozeki wins needed to avoid kadoban

Not an impressive performance by the Ozeki corps, to say the least! Mitakeumi and Shodai will be kadoban in July; Takakeisho has to beat Shodai on senshuraku to avoid making it a clean sweep.

Wins needed to stay in san’yaku

  • Wakatakakage: will stay Sekiwake
  • Abi: will stay in san’yaku; needs one more win to stay Sekiwake
  • Hoshoryu: wil stay Komusubi
  • Daieisho: will be at least Komusubi in July; could take Abi’s place if the latter loses, or force an extra Sekiwake slot with 11 wins

Frontrunners for san’yaku promotion

The only way a Komusubi slot will open is if Abi and Daieisho both win, giving us 3 Sekiwake. Takanosho would have first dibs with a win or a Kiribayama loss; otherwise Kiribayama could leapfrog him. It’s conceivable that 12 wins at M4 would be deemed strong enough for Takanosho to open an extra Komusubi slot.

Wins needed to stay in Makuuchi

  • Ishiura: will be demoted
  • Kotokuzan: will be demoted
  • Kagayaki: will be demoted
  • Azumaryu: will be demoted with a loss; and probably even with a win
  • Everyone else ought to be safe, but I’d really try hard for a win if I were Oho and especially Yutakayama

Wins needed for promotion from Juryo

Four slots are open in Makuuchi; any others would require losses by and mild over-demotions for Oho and/or Yutakayama.

  • Tsurugisho and Chiyomaru: will be promoted
  • Hidenoumi and Ryuden: will be promoted barring really bad luck; can make certain with a win
  • Daiamami and Nishikifuji: must win and hope for losses by others

Wins needed to stay in Juryo

Currently, there are 5 promotable records in Makushita; 3 should definitely go up; the other two face endangered incumbents in likely exchange bouts.

  • Shohozan, Chiyoarashi, Daishomaru: will be demoted
  • Takakento, Kitanowaka: probably must win to avoid demotion

6 thoughts on “Natsu Standings, Day 14

  1. Looking at the banzuke and results, there is a high probability of an extra sanyaku slot will be opened.
    Is there any chance that both Kiribayama and Tokonosho end up in Sanyaku?

    • Given the final results, my guess is neither will, but I’ll have a prediction post up later today.

    • There’s a bit of a logjam there, 4 obvious demotions and 6 good promotion candidates, haven’t thought through what they’re most likely to do yet.

      • Hmm, be interesting to see what the promotions committee do when they toss the bones in air…

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