I don’t have time for a full post that goes through the logic (I did a bit of that right after the basho here), but here’s my banzuke prediction.
The top half seems fairly straightforward, but there are multiple plausible solutions for the lower maegashira ranks, including where to slot in those who should be promoted from Juryo.
The Banzuke committee loves Kagayaki, and thus although it hurts me dearly, I have him staying in div 1 ahead of Chiyomaru. Nothing would please me more than being wrong though
By the analogy with the last basho, when Tsurugisho dropped and Ichiyamamoto stayed, I gave the tiebreaker to the higher-ranked guy.
One thing I found interesting is the disparity between Tochinoshin at 9-6 advancing 5 ranks whereas Nishikigi ranked half a rank lower in March finished with the same 9-6 but only advanced 3 ranks.
Good point, I’d considered that, but who occupies 10e if it’s not Tochi? The possible ways to solve that are to under-demote Chiyoshoma to 10e, which they may well do, or to over-promote Nishikigi ahead of Aoiyama, which doesn’t seem likely since it’s not forced, unlike Tochinoshin. There’s also the gap between 5-10 Okinoumi and Chiyoshoma, but pushing up Chiyoshoma would create a similar one between him and Sadanoumi. Maybe they’ll move both of them up, pushing down all the 7-8’s, whom I left in place, as well as Tochinoshin—there’s no obvious clean solution for this part of the banzuke 🤷🏼♂️
Thx Iksumo! Like I said before, I’m terrible at banzuke predictions and appreciate your efforts and insights.