Month: April 2022

Here Comes Gen Z

Thomas Griffin Natsu Basho 2022 , , , , ,

The previous few years of sumo have been strange, no? Like it or not, we’re in a transitionary period. For the last decade and more, professional sumo has been dominated by wrestlers of the “Millennial” generation, men born in the 1980s and early 1990s. It’s been an incredible era, and it is by no means over, but with more and more of these Millennials calling it quits each year, and with the retirement of Dai-Yokozuna Hakuho in particular, fans have started to actively speculate over what our beloved Grand Sumo will look like in the future. With our heroes aging before our eyes, it’s only natural to ask, “What’s next?”

First, a short acknowledgement of the Now generation. Men like Terunofuji, Mitakeumi, Shodai, Daiesho, Ichinojo, Takanosho, and Takayasu continue to be relevant at the top of the sport, and a few, such as Abi and reigning champion Wakatakakage, seem only now to be peaking in their late 20s. Many of them will no doubt continue to compete at a high level for much of the next decade, but that’s not the point. The point is that one day soon, this group will no longer be competing exclusively against their peers. Gen Z is coming of age. They are the future.

Makuuchi

They are also, arguably, the present. It’s easy to forget because he achieved so much so early, but Ozeki Takakeisho is still only 25 years old! He and Onosho (25) shot up the banzuke in their early 20s and established themselves as contenders, but at long last their classmates are catching up. Komusubi Hoshoryu (22), fresh off his first successful campaign in san’yaku, has been an early bright star, and with his electric arsenal of throws and trips he’s already being saddled with high expectations as sumo’s next “chosen one.” So too are we expecting great things from M2w Kotonowaka (24) and M9e Kotoshoho (22), two stablemates with formidable size and strength who are right behind Hoshoryu, making strides up the rankings chart. Last but not least, M14e Oho (21), now a Makuuchi sophomore, completes the quartet of young rivals that fans have been watching eagle-eyed for the last several years. All four have displayed great promise at an early age, and I can’t wait for the many battles between them in the years to come.

Juryo

I’ve always thought of sumo’s second division as something of a waystation, a checkpoint where promising young wrestlers stop off to hone their raw talent until they pass up and through, and where aging veterans get one last hurrah on their way down and, eventually, out of the sport. Recently, Juryo has been flooded with the former kind of wrestler, and I think there are two in particular who should be on everyone’s radar. J5e Kitanowaka (21), a former high school Yokozuna, more than impressed in his second Juryo campaign, and with his size (190cm tall) and already mature yotsu style, we shouldn’t expect him to loiter at the rank. His counterpart, J12w Atamifuji, is only 19(!) years old, but he too seems to have all the physical metrics for success, as well as a maturity and skill level which is hard to reconcile with that baby face. Both young men will be top division players before year’s end, or I’m Hoshoryu’s uncle.

Makushita and Below

Set to join them are a host of budding talents—there are too many to name, but let’s try anyway. Literal giant Ms2e Hokuseiho (20), Hakuho’s protégé, and Ms1w Nishikawa (23), a university standout and ex-Ozeki Goeido’s protégé, will sit in pole position come Natsu. A 4-3 kachi-koshi should be enough to earn them both their salaries (Hokuseiho would likely still have his, if not for a knee injury in his Juryo debut last September). Close on their heels will be several of Nishikawa’s university teammates and rivals who had near misses for promotion in Osaka, including top-heavy Ms6e Kanno (23) and a pair of foreign-born powerhouses, 2020 College Yokozuna Ms8e Oshoma (24), and Kazakhstani sensation Ms4w Kinbozan (24), March’s Makushita champion. These last two are getting started slightly later than the rest in terms of age, but have exceptional university pedigrees and seem to be making light work of the lower divisions so far. Both seem to favor an overpowering oshi style, and both are ranked near Makushita’s pinnacle for May. I for one will be crossing my fingers to see their first professional showdown.

I would be remiss not to mention Ms4e Roga, also in the Makushita joi, who most should remember for besting the one and only Terunofuji in a Jonidan championship playoff during the Yokozuna’s first tournament back from injury. Roga has since stalled out in Makushita, but is still only 23, and shows great potential, if he can put it all together. Finally, watch out for these youngsters: Ms47w Yoshii (18), a former Hakuho Cup winner; Ms59e Kanzaki (22), another college standout who won the Sandanme yusho in his Grand Sumo debut; and a fresh-faced pair of stablemates, Jd21e Kototebakari and Jd21w Kotokenryu (both 18), who needed a playoff between them in March to sort out the Jonokuchi yusho. Kototebakari in particular we should watch with interest—not only did he win that playoff, but he is the kid brother of the aforementioned Kotoshoho, and it may not be long before the siblings are reunited in the top division.

The list goes on and on, but if there’s one thing left to say, it’s that sumo’s future looks bright. These kids are big (you can say that twice for Hokuseiho), strong, skilled, and hungry. So watch out world—here comes Gen Z.

Natsu Basho Story 2 – Wakatakakage

Bruce H Natsu Basho 2022, Wakatakakage

Haru yusho winner Wakatakakage, the guy has been in the top division for a couple of years, and it was fairly clear he had potential since his first appearance at Maegashira 16 in November of 2019. He went kyujo on day 5 after starting with 4 consecutive wins, and dropped back to mid-Juryo. By July of 2020 he was back to stay, and proceeded to turn in a pair of double digit winning records in Nagoya and Aki. From there it was a fairly steady grind to the top, with his only make-koshi being his first posting to Komusubi last July with a 5-10.

His form in Osaka was excellent, he faced a variety of opponents that brought a catalog of sumo styles to the dohyo, and he bested most of them. His 12-3 yusho was a fairly low score to take the cup by a historical measure, likely due to a period of weakness in the Ozeki and an absent Yokozuna. His three losses were

  • Kiribayama – Day 4 (He beat Mitakeumi the following day…)
  • Mitakeumi – Day 13
  • Shodai – Day 15

His day 15 loss to Shodai forced a playoff against Takayasu for the cup. He had previously faced Takayasu on day 11, which he won by yorikiri after overpowering the former Ozeki. In a barn burner of a match, it was Wakatakakagi that pulled out a last moment victory by hauling Takayasu out while they were both off balance and moments from stepping out. Hey, watch it with Jason

What an outstanding performance.

So the question we are all asking ourselves, was this Wakatakakage’s “Golden Basho”? Much like Goiedo in Aki 2017, where he tore the guts out of everyone including Harumafuji, he somehow managed to make his sumo align and won the cup. Or is this simply his new normal?

He has turned in double digit records before, but this is his first in the san’yaku. I would also point out he did not get to face the Yokozuna (through no fault of his own). He has faced Terunofuji 8 times in the top division, and lost them all.

Clearly this guy is headed for dominance in the coming years. He is 27 as of today, in the prime of his sumo years, and he’s leap ahead of just about everyone else to be a favorite for higher rank – soon. Yes, with that 12-3 yusho from Sekiwake, he’s started an Ozeki bid in fine fashion, but the route from here is tough. The promotion criteria is not simply numbers, but the quality of the wins, and the quality of the opponents. No one can argue that he was up to Ozeki form in March, but consistency is key in being considered for promotion. He knows he needs a double digit score in May and July to even have an argument for promotion, and don’t be surprised if he can’t put his first attempt over the finish line. Many rikishi fail their first time.

Natsu Basho Story 1 – Top Ozeki Mitakeumi

Bruce H Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Natsu Basho 2022

Mitakeumi has been tough on his fans since he rose to prominence in July of 2018, taking the Nagoya basho cup in front of a raging crowd of home-town supporters. After attending Toyo University, he entered professional sumo as Makushita 10, and promptly began stomping the daylights out of just about everyone. He has always been above average, quickly rising to the san’yaku in 2016, and more or less staying there.

For years, his supporters were sure he would be Ozeki “any basho now”, but he was dependable to undergo a week 2 fade, and could not really keep his week 1 intensity into week 2. His second yusho, in September of 2019, may have surprised a few, but it was a glimpse of what what Mitakeumi could do if he stayed strong into week 2.

Late in 2021, he seemed to finally have solved his problems with endurance and consistency, and racked up a 9-6, 11-4 and a blistering 13-2 yusho run to stamp his ticket to sumo’s second highest rank. I had questions if he really had made a step change in his sumo, or was just in a good spot for once, and could string together the storied 33 wins over 3 basho goal. His first basho as Ozeki answered that, perhaps, with an 11-4 record that saw him in the running for the cup into week 2.

His 4 losses in Osaka were to

  • Kiribayama – Day 5
  • Hokutofuji – Day 10
  • Takayasu – Day 12
  • Kotonowaka – Day 14

I vividly recall his day 4 loss to Kiribayama, where he (to my eye) underestimated his opponent, and assumed his bulky mass would be sufficient defense. Mitakeumi then found not only was he wrong, but had no working plan “B” as Kiribayama hussled him across the bales. This same miscalculation seemed to play out again on day 10 against Hokutofuji, who is always dangers, as he is able to rally and surprised just about any opponent if he can get his opening.

I am sure Mitakeumi was disappointed to not be in the battle on day 15 to take the cup, but an 11-4 result from an Ozeki is a very good score. Good enough that he bypassed 9-6 Shodai and 8-7 Takakeisho to assume the lead Ozeki 1 East spot. This means that should both he and Terunofuji make it to day 15, the fight between these two should close out the basho.

Naturally Mitakeumi fans are once again making Yokozuna noises about the “Original Tadpole”, and I honestly think it comes down to that question around his endurance. Has he in fact made that step change, and we will we see 4th consecutive basho with strong week 2 performance? Japanese fans of sumo (which is most of them) would love to see another Japanese Yokozuna.

What can we expect in terms of opponents for Mitakeumi? I think he will face Takayasu on day 1, a great re-match of that day 12 match that knocked him out of the yusho race. He may follow that up with a match against Hoshoryu, who was (to my eye) a bit rough in March. I think we will see a rematch against Kiribayama sometime in act 1 (the first 5 days), and that one I have on a “must watch” list for Natsu.

Natsu Banzuke Postmortem

lksumo Haru Basho 2022 (Osaka)

The May banzuke just dropped. Let’s take a look at how the committee reshuffled the rankings, and how my prediction fared (spoiler: not very well).

The named ranks seemed straightforward, and so they proved, with my prediction going 8 for 8. Atop the banzuke is East Yokozuna Terunofuji, followed in order by East Ozeki Mitakeumi, West Ozeki Shodai, West Ozeki 2 Takakeisho, East Sekiwake Wakatakakage, West Sekiwake Abi, East Komusubi Hoshoryu, and the only newcomer, West Komusubi Daieisho.

The first mild surprise comes at M1e, where we find March runner-up, Takayasu. He deserves to be here “by the numbers”, but I thought that his edge was small enough that joi members Ichinojo and Kiribayama would be ranked at M1 ahead of him; as it is, they are half a rank lower than I predicted, at M1w and M2e, respectively. As expected, Kotonowaka is next at M2w.

Takayasu’s placement ahead of Ichinojo signals the theme of this banzuke. Whereas recently, and especially in March, preference was given to prior rank over record, sometimes to an unprecedented extent, this time the pattern is almost exactly the opposite, and this banzuke strongly favors over-promotion vs. under-demotion. Since my prediction tried to take the recent committee approach into account, this led to many disparities. In almost all cases, my prediction differs from the rankings by half a rank or a full rank, but there are a few eye-brow-raising exceptions.

It was a bit surprising to see M6e Hokutofuji (9-6) ranked at M3e, a full rank ahead of M4w Endo (8-7), who was in the joi; on any recent banzuke, this would have gone the other way. I’m also not sure why M1w Ura (4-11) took the M6e rank ahead of M9w Wakamotoharu (9-6), who deserved to be two full ranks above Ura, especially when this meant splitting Wakamotoharu from M9e Tobizaru (9-6), who occupies M5w.

Things get more puzzling in the lower maegashira ranks. How did M15w Tochinoshin (9-6) end up ahead of M7w Okinoumi (5-10) given equal projected ranks and an 8-rung difference in starting position? But the biggest surprise to me, and the biggest difference with my prediction, is promoting M16e Nishikigi (9-6) all the way up to M10w, ahead of M10w Aoiyama (7-8). Aoiyama deserved to be two ranks above Nishikigi, and the only rationale here appears to be a desire to make sure those with a 7-8 record experience at least some demotion, in sharp contrast with recent banzuke, which typically left them at their rank. Of course, even this wasn’t done consistently, with Yutakayama getting to stay at M14w, despite plenty of other options.

I could go on, but I’ll close with just a couple of other cases. M3w Meisei (1-14) and M5w Ishiura (2-7-6) deserved the same rank, yet the former finds himself at M13w and the latter at M16e, in what has to be the biggest snub on the banzuke and looks like a punishment for his withdrawal with a neck injury. In breaking another pattern, juryo promotees Oho and Azumaryu are placed above Ichiyamamoto, despite the fact that the latter got a winning record in Makuuchi. Finally, as many readers of the blog pointed out, the banzuke committee’s love for Kagayaki is undiminished, and so despite going 7-8 at M17, he gets to stay in the top division, with Chiyomaru dropping instead.