Yusho Race
The key Day 12 bouts are:
- Wakatakakage (11-2) vs. Takakeisho (8-5)
- Shodai (7-6) vs. Takayasu (12-1)
- Kotonowaka (10-3) vs. vs. Mitakeumi (10-3)
The loser of the bout between Kotonowaka and Mitakeumi will be eliminated from the race; the winner must hope for a loss by the sole leader to stay in it. A Takayasu win combined with a Wakatakakage loss hands the former the yusho; otherwise the race goes down to the wire with either two or three rikishi still in it on senshuraku. If we still have a race, Takayasu would probably face Abi, while Wakatakakage should face Shodai.
Ozeki
O2w Mitakeumi has his 10 wins in his debut at the rank. O1w Takakeisho (8-5) has cleared kadoban. O1e Shodai (7-6) still needs one more win to avoid dropping to:
Sekiwake
S1e Wakatakakage (11-2) will continue at his current rank (and aim higher). S1w Abi (7-6) needs a win to hold rank, but can fall no lower than:
Komusubi
K1e Takanosho (2-9) will be fighting in the maegashira ranks in May. K1w Hoshoryu (6-7) needs to win out avoid joining him.
One san’yaku slot should be open, unless Shodai is demoted to Sekiwake and Abi is demoted to Komusubi. At most one more may open. The contenders are M7e Takayasu (12-1), M2e Ichinojo (9-4), M4e Kiribayama (9-4), and M6w Kotonowaka (10-3). In with a chance are M2w Tamawashi (6-7), M4w Endo (7-6), and M1e Daieisho (6-7), who must win out but would jump to the head of the queue with a kachi-koshi by virtue of his status as the top maegashira. Depending on how the final weekend plays out, extra Komusubi slots are starting to look like a distinct possibility.
Makuuchi/Juryo Exchanges
Going down for certain: Akua.
In deep trouble unless they win out: Ichiyamamoto, Kagayaki, Chiyomaru.
Need one win for safety: Ishiura, Chiyonokuni, Kotokuzan.
Coming up, assuming two slots open, which is not yet a given: Oho, Azumaryu.
Chance of promotion: Midorifuji, Mitoryu, Tsurugisho, Hidenoumi.
I really like the way you wrote this! I’m still rooting for Abi and Shodai!
Me too!
Curious to see what would happen in a scenario where only one K slot is available, Daieisho goes 8-7 and Takayasu goes 14-1.
I would imagine that we would see 3 Komusubi in that situation, but also there’s part of me that wonders whether they would just go with Takayasu and leave Daieisho at M1E given that the rule as I understand it is not so much that he must be promoted as that he cannot be demoted.
Another curious one: In the event that Shodai does fall to Sekiwake AND a third Komusubi is promoted, who sits on which side? Does the Komusubi sit on the west side to balance the banzuke, or does the Sekiwake by virtue of simply being the next biggest rank with an odd number of rikishi down from the Yokozuna?
This has actually made me consider whether Takayasu’s Day 15 opponent actually is whichever sanyaku contender’s position for the next basho is unsettled, since he hasn’t faced Daieisho or Abi…. ie …. if Abi is kachi-koshi and has nothing to fight for (other than running up the score for a potential first basho of a three basho ozeki run), would they not actually give him Daieisho if he’s 7-7 and in potential direct competition with Takayasu for that sanyaku slot?
All good points; this will be fascinating to watch and I’ll make my predictions once the dust has settled.
Wakatakakage is probably very motivated right now to get as close to the yusho and run up his score as he can. He is now 20 wins over 2 tournaments. An ozeki run starting in the high Maegashira is not unusual. So a M1 – Se – Se – O is a good possibility if he keeps this level of performance up in may.