The key Day 12 bouts are:
- Wakatakakage (11-2) vs. Takakeisho (8-5)
- Shodai (7-6) vs. Takayasu (12-1)
- Kotonowaka (10-3) vs. vs. Mitakeumi (10-3)
The loser of the bout between Kotonowaka and Mitakeumi will be eliminated from the race; the winner must hope for a loss by the sole leader to stay in it. A Takayasu win combined with a Wakatakakage loss hands the former the yusho; otherwise the race goes down to the wire with either two or three rikishi still in it on senshuraku. If we still have a race, Takayasu would probably face Abi, while Wakatakakage should face Shodai.
O2w Mitakeumi has his 10 wins in his debut at the rank. O1w Takakeisho (8-5) has cleared kadoban. O1e Shodai (7-6) still needs one more win to avoid dropping to:
S1e Wakatakakage (11-2) will continue at his current rank (and aim higher). S1w Abi (7-6) needs a win to hold rank, but can fall no lower than:
K1e Takanosho (2-9) will be fighting in the maegashira ranks in May. K1w Hoshoryu (6-7) needs to win out avoid joining him.
One san’yaku slot should be open, unless Shodai is demoted to Sekiwake and Abi is demoted to Komusubi. At most one more may open. The contenders are M7e Takayasu (12-1), M2e Ichinojo (9-4), M4e Kiribayama (9-4), and M6w Kotonowaka (10-3). In with a chance are M2w Tamawashi (6-7), M4w Endo (7-6), and M1e Daieisho (6-7), who must win out but would jump to the head of the queue with a kachi-koshi by virtue of his status as the top maegashira. Depending on how the final weekend plays out, extra Komusubi slots are starting to look like a distinct possibility.
Going down for certain: Akua.
In deep trouble unless they win out: Ichiyamamoto, Kagayaki, Chiyomaru.
Need one win for safety: Ishiura, Chiyonokuni, Kotokuzan.
Coming up, assuming two slots open, which is not yet a given: Oho, Azumaryu.
Chance of promotion: Midorifuji, Mitoryu, Tsurugisho, Hidenoumi.