The top three ranks went exactly to form: East Yokozuna Terunofuji, East Ozeki Takakeisho, West Ozeki Shodai, East Sekiwake Mitakeumi, and West Sekiwake Takanosho.
Also as predicted, the two Komusubi slots went to Meisei and Daieisho, but contrary to my guess, Meisei is ranked on the more prestigious East side (I did note that this wouldn’t surprise me).
The Maegashira Ranks
I noted several areas of uncertainty (the known unknowns). How did those play out, and what turned out to be unknown unknowns—surprises by the banzuke committee at ranks that seemed pretty cut-and-dried?
- Who will take the M1w slot—Ura or Kiribayama?
- I went with Ura; the banzuke committee went with Kiribayama.
- Do I have the rikishi on the correct sides at M5 and M6?
- There were more surprises here than I expected, with Onosho only falling three ranks to M5e after a 5-10 record. As a result, Chiyoshoma ended up half a rank lower than I predicted, and Abi a full rank lower. I did get Hoshoryu spot-on.
- Possibly the biggest wildcard—how far will Myogiryu drop? I have him at what I think is the highest possible position, M10e, but anything from there to M14e wouldn’t surprise me.
- Score one for the Crystal Ball, which got Myogiryu exactly right.
- Will Oho get promoted, or will M14e Kagayaki (5-10) get to stay in Makuuchi instead?
- Very happy to see that the banzuke committee gave Oho his top-division debut!
What unexpected surprises did the banzuke committee have up its sleeve? I thought Ichinojo would get a rather lenient drop from Komusubi to M3w after his 5-10 record; the banzuke committee was even more charitable, dropping him to only M2w. Continuing a theme of lenient demotions for upper rankers with bad records, Takarafuji only dropped to M7w (I had him at M8e). And in other minor surprises, Chiyonokuni is ahead of Shimanoumi, Ishiura is ahead of Chiyotairyu, Yutakayama is ahead of Kotonowaka, and Tochinoshin is ahead of Aoiyama.
The Crystal Ball did well with the Juryo promotions, not only getting all the exchanges right, but placing them at exactly the correct rank. In total, the prediction agreed with the actual banzuke at 23 of the 42 positions, and placed a further 7 rikishi at the correct rank but on the wrong side. Of the 12 misses, 8 were a result of half-rank switches (e.g. M1w and M2e), 3 were by one rank, and the worst miss was by one and a half ranks (the aforementioned Onosho). I’m pretty happy with this level of accuracy.