Kyushu Promotion/Demotion Picture, Day 14

Congratulations to Yokozuna Terunofuji (14-0) on a well-deserved victory. With the yusho race decided, what else is on the line on Day 15? Two Komusubi slots, at least one Makuuchi-Juryo exchange, and two exchanges between Juryo and Makushita are at stake in senshuraku action.

Lower San’yaku

Mitakeumi (10-4) will remain East Sekiwake, and needs a final-day win against Shodai to mount a credible Ozeki bid in January. West Sekiwake Meisei (6-8) will surrender his rank, and needs to beat Ichinojo to limit his fall to Komusubi. Both current Komusubi, Ichinojo (5-9) and Kiribayama (5-9), are assured of a drop into the rank-and-file.

M2w Takanosho (10-4) has locked up a return to West Sekiwake after a 3-basho absence (fun fact: this will be his 5th appearance at that exact rank without ever being ranked Komusubi).

The pecking order for the two Komusubi slots is as follows: 1. Meisei with a win; 2. M1e Daieisho (7-7) with a win; 3. M1w Wakatakakage (7-7) with a win; 4. M7e Ura (10-4) with a win; 5. M6w Tamawashi with a win (9-5); 6. Ura with a loss; 7. M4w Endo (7-7) with a win; 8. Tamawashi with a loss. It’s possible that Endo with a win could jump over Ura with a loss, and also that M15w Abi (12-2) with a win could jump over Tamawashi with a loss. So that’s as many as seven men with san’yaku hopes on senshuraku!

Makuuchi/Juryo

There will be at least three open slots in the top division: one due to Hakuho’s retirement, one due to Asanoyama’s suspension, and one to be vacated by the lowest man on the banzuke, M17w Shohozan (3-11). Their spots will be taken by Juryo yusho frontrunner J4w Ichiyamamoto (12-2), Wakatakakage’s bro J1w Wakamotoharu (10-4), and J1e Tsurugisho (8-6).

Will we see any other exchanges? If M14e Kagayaki (4-10) loses, he’ll be demoted for certain. He really ought to be demoted even if he wins, but he could yet be bailed out by his uncanny banzuke luck. M17e Kaisei (7-7) is probably already safe, and can make certain of that by defeating Endo, a tough ask by the schedulers.

J7e Oho (10-4) broke his 4-bout losing streak just in time, and should have the 4th-best promotion case. He’ll replace Kagayaki with a win or a Kagayaki loss. The decision is less clear if the choice is between a 10-5 Oho and a 5-10 Kagayaki, and I would guess might favor the incumbent, especially since this is Kagayaki we’re talking about.

Finally, I don’t think they’ll drop Kaisei with a loss in favor of J3w Bushozan (7-7) with a win, and J6e Kotoshoho (8-6) is even less likely to get the nod if he wins and both Kaisei and Bushozan lose, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility.

Juryo/Makushita

Three slots are definitely open in Juryo: one by Hakuho’s retirement, one by Hokuseiho’s withdrawal, and one by J9w Kyokutaisei (2-12). J14e Kyokushuho (6-8) and J10e Yago (4-10) will also finish with demotable records, but each could earn a reprieve with a win, while a loss would doom them to Makushita.

Ms1w Kotoyusho (4-2) should be making his Juryo debut win or lose. He is matched with Yago. Ms2w Shiba (5-2) will also finally become a sekitori after toiling in the unsalaried ranks since 2014. Ms4e Chiyoarashi (5-2) should also be in, as he is competing with Ms3e Kitanowaka (4-2), who is matched with Kyokushuho. A Kitanowaka victory would force down Kyokushuho, creating space for both himself and Chiyoarashi, while a Kitanowaka loss would place him behind Chiyoarashi. In that case, Kitanowaka may need to hope for a Yago loss. Finally, Ms4w Fukai (3-3) faces J8w Churanoumi (6-8). Should he pull off the upset, he would need both Yago and Kyokushuho to lose. If Fukai, Yago and Kyokushuho all lose, a spot would open up for someone outside the traditional Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone: either Ms6e Shimazuumi (4-3) or possibly Ms8e Tamashoho (5-2).

5 thoughts on “Kyushu Promotion/Demotion Picture, Day 14

  1. Yago hitting the skids, what on earth happened to Oguruma heya. I wonder if there might be an urge to just take the churn this time, and rotate a bunch of the crummy records out of the top division, and take a risk on aggressive promotions.

  2. Meisei, Daieisho and Wakatakakage all won the final day. So I’m wondering if a 3rd Komusubi will open up for Wakatakakage. Knowing how JSA operates, I think he probably have to settle for M1E. Hard luck but winning the last 6 on a streak is quite impressive.

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