Kyushu Promotion/Demotion Picture, Day 11

Lower San’yaku

Mitakeumi (9-2) will remain East Sekiwake in January. West Sekiwake Meisei (5-6) needs 3 more wins to retain his rank, and 2 to limit his fall to Komusubi. The two incumbents at the 4th rank, Ichinojo (4-7) and Kiribayama (4-7), both need to win out to avoid a drop into the rank-and-file.

M2w Takanosho (7-4) and M6w Tamawashi (9-2) lead the race for any open promotion slots.

Makuuchi/Juryo

We should have at least three open slots in the top division: one due to Hakuho’s retirement, one due to Asanoyama’s suspension, and one to be vacated by the lowest man on the banzuke, M17w Shohozan (2-8). M17e Kaisei (5-6) and M14e Kagayaki (3-8) each need 3 wins for safety. Fun fact: this is Kagayaki’s 7th straight basho in which he is ranked at maegashira and is make-koshi. That’s not easy to do! In fact, he now shares the all-time record with Sadanoumi, who “accomplished” this feat in 2015. Sadanoumi ended his streak with a kachi-koshi; should Kagayaki dodge demotion, he can go for an unprecedented 8th in January!

M13w Tochinoshin and M13e Yutakayama, each with 4 wins, likely need 2 wins for safety. Several other rikishi still need another win to guarantee a return. There are not many Juryo men with strong promotion cases, so we may see some lenient stays.

Who is in contention down in the second division? J1w Wakamotoharu (8-3) has almost certainly done enough to join his brother in Makuuchi. The next best promotion case belongs to J4w Ichiyamamoto (9-2), who can probably clinch it with another win, followed by J7e Oho (9-2), who needs two more. Top-ranked J1e Tsurugisho (5-6), who lost an epic bout to Midorifuji, can still guarantee a return to the top division with three wins; he faces Oho tomorrow. Fading J6e Kotoshoho (7-4) now probably needs to win out, and everyone else still hoping to move will need banzuke luck.

Juryo/Makushita

Two slots are already open in Juryo, one also due to Hakuho’s retirement and the other due to his protege Hokuseiho’s disappointing early withdrawal in his long-awaited sekitori debut. J14e Kyokushuho (5-6) and J9w Kyokutaisei (2-9) are in the worst shape of those participating, and need 3 wins apiece to retain their salaries, while J10e Yago (4-7) needs 2.

Seven of the ten wrestlers in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone can still finish with a winning record. Four have already clinched it, while the others have 3-3 scores. Top-ranked Ms1e Jokoryu (3-3) can force promotion tomorrow by beating J12e Tohakuryu (6-5), while a loss drops him from contention. The rest of the contenders are not in action on Day 12.

Ms13e Roga (5-1) dropped out of the race with a hard-fought loss to recent Juryo regular Ms33e Chiyonoumi (6-0), who will face former Komusubi Ms47w Ryuden (6-0) for the Makushita yusho and a spot in the promotion zone for January.

5 thoughts on “Kyushu Promotion/Demotion Picture, Day 11

  1. Is it written in stone that a Sekiwake who goes 6-9 must drop into the Maegashira? A quick look at the database would suggest that; but say a lot of results go a certain way and Meisei finishes 6-9, and all the higher ranking 7-loss wrestlers(both Komusubi and the joi) pick up that 8th loss. Takanosho and Tamawashi will take 2 of the open sekitori spots, but will they really promote say a M5 with 8 or 9 wins into Komusubi instead of putting Meisei there? I suppose Ura with 11 wins could get there, but how about with 10?

    Thinking about these edge cases is always fun even if they usually don’t happen.

    • I guess very little is written in stone when it comes to the banzuke, but the fact that it hasn’t happened in 70 instances since 1958 is indicative that it’s extremely unlikely. There have been Komusubi promotions from as low as M8 with 9 wins, and as low as M10 with 10, so things would have to get pretty dire indeed in the maegashira ranks.

  2. That’s a great stat about Kagayaki! Looking at sumo DB Sadanoumi was only a fusensho away from making it nine in a row. I do like his style and am enjoying seeing him back in Makuuchi.

    • Hopefully reinforcements are on the way in the next couple of basho, there are quite a few guys in upper makushita I’m excited about.

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