Long-time readers of Tachiai will know that the yusho is relatively recent concept, and a secondary one to the real purpose of a honbasho—determining the rankings for the next tournament. So, what are the November results likely to mean for the Hatsu basho scheduled for January? The new banzuke will be drawn up on Wednesday, but it won’t be made public (with the exception of promotions to Juryo) until December 24 as an early Christmas present to sumo fans. In the meantime, we can speculate.
A big story of the final day was that every single endangered incumbent—in lower san’yaku, in lower Makuuchi, and in lower Juryo—won. This neatly resolved the division exchange picture, but created a logjam near the top of the banzuke.
The named ranks
Barring any retirements, the Yokozuna ranks won’t change. We should see a slight reshuffle of the Ozeki order, with Shodai (three wins) moving ahead of Asanoyama (one win). The two Sekiwake are also clear: Terunofuji and Takanosho, though the order is up for debate: does the kachi-koshi incumbent move over to the East side, or do Terunofuji’s 5 extra wins allow him to leapfrog Takanosho?
The real action is at Komusubi. Takayasu (8-7) successfully defended his rank. Mitakeumi‘s 7-8 at Sekiwake has been a guarantee of demotion to no lower than Komusubi for the past 27 years. Will this continue to hold in the face of two very strong contenders for promotion, M2w Daieisho (10-5) and M4e Hokutofuji (11-4)? If Mitakeumi were to get bumped, which would get the nod? Could we once again see the creation of one or even two extra Komusubi slots?
The new joi
In addition to the 11 men above, who else will be joining the melee in the top 16? M1w Wakatakakage and M2e Onosho, both 7-8, have done enough to stay in the “meat grinder.” Rising up to join them will be M6e Takarafuji (9-6), M5w Kotoshoho (8-7), and M7e Tochinoshin (9-6). Just outside the top 16, ready to step up in case of withdrawals and same-heya conflicts, will be M6w Tamawashi (8-7), M3w Okinoumi (6-9), and M7w Endo (8-7). His 3 losses in the final 3 days mean that the low maegashira yusho contender du jour Shimanoumi (11-4) will get a sensible promotion to something like M9, instead of being launched all the way up the banzuke.
Makuuchi-Juryo exchanges
Final-day victories by Yutakayama and Sadanoumi, coupled with losses by Ishiura and Chiyomaru, made this cut-and-dried—we will have only two exchanges for the first time in over 5 years. Going down are absent Kotoyuki and Enho. Taking their place are J2e Midorifuji (10-5), the Juryo yusho winner, who’ll make his long-awaited top-division debut, and veteran journeyman J1e Akiseyama (9-6). The line between M11e Sadanoumi (5-10) and J3e Ishiura (8-7) is very clear, though the latter may be able to console himself with being at the very top of Juryo next time, where another 8-7 record should guarantee promotion.
Juryo-Makushita exchanges
Once again, any uncertainties here were resolved by final-day victories by endangered Takagenji and Ikioi. We will see three demotions: absent Abi, Nishikifuji, and winless Fujiazuma (I can’t let Andy forget that he predicted Fujiazuma would go 12-3). We hadn’t seen an 0-15 record since 2005 until Oki “accomplished” this feat in September, and now we get two in consecutive tournaments—thanks, 2020.
The three slots vacated by demotions, plus a 4th opened up by Kotoshogiku’s intai will go to Ms1w Naya (6-1), Makushita yusho winner Ms15w Ryuko (7-0), Ms2e Yago (4-3) and Ms2w Shiraishi (4-3). Naya and Shiraishi are highly touted prospects who’ll be making their sekitori debuts. Missing out despite winning records in the Makushita top 5 promotion zone will be Ms3e Kitaharima (4-3), Ms4e Bushozan (4-3), and Ms5w Kotokuzan (4-3).
Bonus: Makushita joi
The January top 5 promotion zone will include the 3 kachi-koshi holdovers listed above, along with Daishoho, who just missed promotion by going 3-4 at Ms1e. Unusually, none of the three Juryo dropouts will be joining them, as their records are bad enough to drop them deeper into Makushita. Instead, my guess is that the other 6 spots will go to Ms6 Takakento (4-3), Ms8 Tochimaru (4-3), Ms8 Ichiyamamoto (5-2), Ms9 Nakazono (5-2), Ms12 Roga (6-1), and Ms15 Hokutenkai (5-2). The last two have been on our “ones to watch list” for a while, and they faced off head-to-head in their 7th bout, so it will be exciting to see them battle it out for a shot at sekitori promotion.
And here’s a wild-card: Hakuho’s recruit Hokuseiho, who is now 21-0 with three lower-division yusho at just 19, should be ranked in the top 15, with a chance of promotion if he can put up another 7-0, though his first basho at this level is more likely to be a learning experience.
And that’s a wrap. Let me know in the comments if you’re curious about the likely banzuke position of anyone I didn’t discuss, and I’ll do my best to answer.
I am not one of those who qualifies as a long-time reader. For the uninitiated, when were yusho races introduced?
I’m not 100% sure, but I think you can deduce it from this list: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Yusho.aspx
Per Wikipedia: A yūshō system giving the wrestler with the best tournament record a prize was introduced by the Mainichi newspaper in the second half of 1909, and this was officially integrated by the JSA in 1926. All tournaments predating the second tournament of 1909 did not recognize or award a championship.
Tournaments in some organized fashion predate this by a couple centuries.
ma boule de cristal…
Hakuho Y Kakuryu
Takakeisho O Shodai
Asanoyama O2
Takanosho S Terunofuji
Takayasu K Hokutofuji
Daieisho K2 Mitakeumi
Takarafuji M1 Tochinoshin
Wakatakakage M2 Onosho
Kotoshoho M3 Tamawashi
Endo M4 Okinoumi
Ryuden M5 Meisei
Tobizaru M6 Tokushoryu
Kagayaki M7 Chiyonokuni
Shimanoumi M8 Kiribayama
Aoiyama M9 Chiyotairyu
Ichinojo M10 Myogiryu
Kotoeko M11 Akua
Terutsuyoshi M12 Chiyoshoma
Midorifuji M13 Hoshoryu
Yutakayama M14 Kaisei
Kotonowaka M15 Akiseyama
Sadanoumi M16
J1 Daiamami / Enho
J2 Ishiura / Chiyonoo
J3 Chiyomaru / Kyokushuho
J4 Churanoumi / Wakamotoharu
J5 Shohozan / Chiyootori
J6 Azumaryu / Hidenoumi
J7 Kyokutaisei / Nishikigi
J8 Tsurugisho / Daishomaru
J9 Jokoryu / Ura
J10 Mitoryu / Kotoyuki
J11 Chiyonoumi / Naya
J12 Ikioi / Hakuyozan
J13 Takagenji / Yago
J14 Shiraishi / Kitaharima
Ryuko will be going up in place of Kitaharima: 7-0 in the top 15 Makushita ranks is an automatic promotion.
The tricky thing about trying to guess this banzuke is the komusubi situation: you could get the ORDER completely correct but get all the maegashira ranks wrong.
Who received what special prizes this tournament? And thank you so much for providing this window on the sumo world. It has been a much needed and appreciated distraction during this turbulent year.
Fighting spirit prizes: Chiyonokuni and Shimanoumi. Technique prize: Terunofuji. Outstanding performance prize: not awarded.
Tochinoshin also received a fighting spirit prize…
Not this tournament he didn’t http://sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoMain/champions/
What did Tochinoshin get, then? He was definitely handed a special prize on his last bout.
I think Tochinoshin’s prize left many viewers confused, myself included. What Tochinoshin won was probably one of the three separate special prizes awarded to the winners of the last three matches of the basho. They are the arrow, string and bow. He won the arrows. It’s explained at the end of this article: https://everything2.com/title/Sumo+Special+Prizes
I always feel sorry for the guy who gets the string!
Did Terunofuji get a bow?
yes, i saw that on the highlights show today…(why I made the comment originally)
Yes, that’s completely different from the sansho: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sansh%C5%8D_(sumo)
The arrows? That’s not a special prize. The winner of the third from the last bout on senshuraku gets arrows.
I mean, it seems kind of special. Maybe it’s not one of the “special prizes”, but still special. Honestly, I had no idea the arrow, string, and bow were a thing and I’ve watched every tournament for the past five years…Thanks for the education!
My money is on Takanosho as S1E. I went to SumoDB and queried for S1W rikishi with 8+ wins who stayed S1W. When S1W were denied promotion with kachi-koshi, there seemed to be an S1E incumbent with a kachi-koshi record. I didn’t have a chance to go back far, though.
This is the most recent counter-example I found: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=200211&heya=-1&shusshin=-1&snr=on
It’s a great example. Apparently stronger wins, too, by Kotomitsuki (which included Ozeki) and a stronger promotion case for Terunofuji.
Thanks very much as always lksumo.
Can you (or anyone else) tell me how far down into Makushita Abi is going to drop?
And this was the last tournament of his ban, right? So he will be competing in January?
He should drop to around Ms10. And I thought the ban was 3 full basho, so that would mean he’d have to sit out January and return in March. I’m sure someone will know the exact answer.
Thanks! And I’m you are right that he cannot return till March. In which case he would drop further to around Ms30-something?
I think he will drop further to something around Ms50. He will need a Yusho in March to get in striking distance for promotion in May basho. Depending on banzuke luck he could return to Makushita joiin with a Yusho or end just outside. Most likely he will need two yusho to return within two tournaments, if banzuke favors him he might get by with a strong showing in the 2nd tournament (like 6-1). He can’t mess up the first tournament thought, cause even a 6-1 will likely not land him t Ms15 or below.
Thanks!
Ms50?! Oh dear…
For a recent parallel, you can look at Chiyonokuni’s path back from injury. He sat out 3 full tournaments and dropped to Ms46 before working his way back up, though he got stuck in upper Makushita for a couple of tournaments: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=6642
I think Ura also dropped from somewhere from Ms10 to Ms50 in 2018. He sat out two more tournaments thought and then had his return stopped by another injury.