Wrapping Up the Mock Natsu Basho

Thanks for following our coverage of the mock Natsu basho. In the alternate timeline where this tournament took place, what do the results mean for the rikishi?

The upper ranks

While Yokozuna Hakuho cannot be happy with an 11-4 record and a final-day loss, he did enough to extend his own record of 53 appearances at the top Y1e rung of the banzuke. Yokozuna Kakuryu pulled out after recording 8 wins and 4 losses, a result that will be questioned by the YDC. Oh, and he’ll once again occupy the odd Yokozuna-Ozeki rank, because we will have a lone (East) Ozeki, ascendant Asanoyama (12-3, jun-yusho), who did not miss a beat in his debut at sumo’s second-highest rank. Kadoban Ozeki Takakeisho failed to record 8 wins, dropping to Sekiwake on the next banzuke.

Lower san’yaku

Mitakeumi’s 13-2 yusho should vault him over fellow Sekiwake Shodai (8-7) for the East Sekiwake rank, with Shodai sliding over to the West side. Takakeisho will occupy an extra Sekiwake slot (S2w to balance the banzuke). Daieisho (8-7) left it late, but his final-day victory will extend his stay at East Komusubi, while his counterpart on the West side will be shin-san’yaku Yutakayama, who also recorded an all-important 8th win on senshuraku.

Upper maegashira

The top 5 maegashira ranks should be occupied, in order, by M2e Takanosho (8-7), M2w Onosho (8-7), M4w Aoiyama (9-6), M8w Chiyotairyu (11-4), M5w Hokutofuji (9-6), M7w Tokushoryu (10-5), M8e Ishiura (10-5), M3e Takarafuji (7-8), Kw Okinoumi (5-10), and M4e Kagayaki (7-8), with M12e Sadanoumi (11-4) just outside this range.

Demotions and promotions

We have 4 clear demotions from the top division: M17 Terunofuji (0-7-8), M16 Kotoeko (5-10), M17 Kotoyuki (6-9), and M15 Chiyomaru (5-10). There are only three clear promotions in Juryo: the yusho winner J5e Kyokutaisei (12-3), the top-ranked J1e Meisei (9-6), and J4e Daiamami (10-5). The lucky fourth promotion should go to J3w Kyokushuho (8-7).

Two more Makuuchi rikishi have demotable records, but may survive by virtue of banzuke luck: M10 Kaisei (3-12) and M11 Tochinoshin (4-11). Tochinoshin’s final-day win likely ensured a stay in the top division, while Kaisei lost and is on the bubble, with the best candidate to replace him being J5w Ichinojo (9-6).

9 thoughts on “Wrapping Up the Mock Natsu Basho

  1. I think one big thing that was underscored by the simulation is that we may in fact lose another Ozeki. I note that the simulation is not a forecast, but it’s a good tool for seeing what might happen. In the simulation, Takakeisho re-injured his pectoral muscle, and could not generate enough pushing force to win any more matches. While I don’t think that is a “must happen” for July, it’s something to keep an eye one. With the rikishi not doing any contact training for 2 months, many of them will be susceptible to injury as they train up for July. I am keeping things crossed.

  2. It’s interesting that down in Juryo (which it looks like you were also simulating), Chiyoshoma managed to mess things up from being 5-3 on day 9 when he made his top division visit, despite being ranked at J1w. i imagine he will have ended up 7-8 and if so has alternated between 8 and 7 wins in the top 3 ranks of Juryo for the whole of the last year, repeatedly blowing his chances to get back to Makuuchi!

    • Actually he dropped 7 straight to finish 5-10; admittedly the Juryo simulation was a little more crude.

  3. Can we indulge in an alternate timeline where Hattorizakura finally went 2-5, or is such fantasy beneath even a computer model?

  4. Thank you Tachiai crew! This was an exciting basho to follow in its own right. I was going to donate a little money in appreciation but there doesn’t seem to be a way, so please accept my heartfelt thanks.

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