Haru Day 12 Preview

I find myself wondering about day 12. There is a lot on the line, as lksumo so expertly described, but it falls between a crew of rikishi who find themselves on the precipice of a make-koshi, and a narrow group of competitors who are fighting for bigger goals. This basho has been a return to the older days of sumo, where the upper ranks harvested vast numbers of wins from the lesser ranks, and everyone ended each tournament wondering what happened to their sumo.

The big question of the basho – will Hakuho take another yusho? Depends on if someone can put dirt on him between now and Sunday. There are a couple of candidates, but Hakuho seems to be in his genki mode, and short of injury, will be tough to beat.

Haru Leaderboard

Leader: Hakuho
Chaser: Ichinojo
Hunt Group: Goeido, Aoiyama, Kotoshogiku, Kakuryu, Takayasu

4 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 12

Enho vs Toyonoshima – Spritely Enho is back for a second visit to Makuuchi, this time it’s against Toyonoshima who is already make-koshi, and possibly headed back to Juryo. After winning his first 3 matches, Enho has faltered a bit, and is now at 6-5, and not making the strongest case for promotion.

Kotoeko vs Kagayaki – A win today would give Kagayaki his first kachi-koshi since Aki 2018. Kagayaki got off to a slow start, but reconnected with his sumo on the middle weekend, and has been operating well.

Yutakayama vs Yoshikaze – In some prior tournaments, Yoshikaze has eased up once he reached kachi-koshi, and that may happen here too. Yutakayama is clearly on the bubble for demotion, pending how the Juryo promotion race plays out. Any win now would increase his chances of staying put and recovering his formerly genki status in the top division.

Chiyoshoma vs Meisei – Chiyoshoma really needs to pick up this win today. At Maegashira 17, he will need a kachi-koshi to remain in Makuuchi for May. Meisei is very much using speed sumo right now, and this suits Chiyoshoma just fine. We may see a series of Chiyoshoma henka, and hopefully Meisei is expecting that.

Aoiyama vs Ryuden – I very much doubt that the day 11 loss to Ichinojo did more than frustrate sumo’s man-mountain Aoiyama. His day 12 match against Ryuden may be a pugilistic pageant of planetary proportions. But Ryuden may also be little more than a straw bag that Aoiyama uses to work out his frustrations and unfulfilled need to hit things.

Okinoumi vs Shohozan – Another veterans match, there seem to be these every day and they are quite a contrast to the sumo of the younger crowd at times. I expect that Okinoumi will once again dig into this bag of sumo technical mastery and find something unique to use against the always flailing arms of Shohozan.

Terutsuyoshi vs Abi – The battle of the hapless under performers! Who will be let down more, the fans of Abi or the fans of Terutsuyoshi? Honest truth, Terutsuyoshi’s sumo lexicon (at least during Honbasho) seems more diverse than Abi’s.

Chiyotairyu vs Kotoshogiku – Chiyotairyu has only beaten Kotoshogiku once in 12 tries. So I am going to guess we may see Chiyotairyu get a train of pelvic thrusts that rock his world. A win today would move Kotoshogiku to double digits, and it increasingly seems that the Kyushu Bulldozer may be back in the joi-jin for May.

Sadanoumi vs Onosho – It seems everyone in sumo knows what to do with Onosho’s balance problems, except Onosho. Today we see if Sadanoumi can hand Onosho his make-koshi to match the one that Sadanoumi already achieved.

Asanoyama vs Ichinojo – Nope!

Daieisho vs Tochiozan – How did Tochiozan end up make-koshi? This basho really has been a rough ride for a number of storied veterans and solid sumo practitioners. Daieisho holds a 4-1 career advantage, so this could end up being loss #10 for Tochiozan.

Kaisei vs Shodai – I will come out and say it, both of you guys should start breakdancing at the tachiai. This is no time for sumo for either one of you, so just give up and admit you’re not going to do any more sumo in Osaka. Bring a boom box, and a big boat of Takoyaki and just hold a dance off at the shikiri-sen. You bet it will annoy the NSK, but.. you know… YOLO.

Mitakeumi vs Myogiryu – Once you bleach the mental image of Kaisei moonwalking out of your mind, I am going to suggest that Mitakeumi will likely give Myogiryu the black star he is missing for his commemorative make-koshi from Osaka. Myogiryu has a lot of speed, but Mitakeumi has been protecting his knees, and not moving as much. This has resulted in him giving busy little guys like Myogiryu fewer chances to actually get an advantage.

Nishikigi vs Hokutofuji – Two more members of team make-koshi in good standing, I would guess that Hokutofuji will attempt a handshake tachiai blasting into a nodowa. Nishikigi typically is no too badly impacted by this stunt, so it may be a waste of Hokutofuji’s time. If Nishikigi can land a mawashi grip, he will likely take the match.

Endo vs Tamawashi – The loser joins team make-koshi, and I am not sure which one might have the edge here. Tamawashi has fought well, but definitely a notch below his January yusho grade of sumo. Chalk it up to the distractions associated with being the cup-holder.

Takakeisho vs Goeido – After all of the preliminaries, we get down to the heart of the matter. Goeido is in very good form, and his contest against Takakeisho will be a fast and brutal affair. I am looking for Goeido to open distance to Takakeisho and not let him get close enough to set up the wave-action attack. We saw day 11 that Hakuho did this with great skill, staying just beyond Takakeisho’s attack range, and forcing the Ozeki aspirant to move each time he wanted to engage. This robbed Takakeisho of a firm stance to power his thrusts, and reduced his effectiveness significantly. I am certain that Goeido saw all of this, and will act accordingly. He might also just blast out of the tachiai and take Takakeisho to his chest, shutting down his pushing attack.

Hakuho vs Tochinoshin – This has two primary possible outcomes. Hakuho dismantles Tochinoshin and puts him on the clay for his 6th loss is the most likely solution. But it’s also possible that Tochinoshin gets a grip on the dai-Yokozuna’s mawashi with that lethal left hand, and Hakuho ends up putting a lot of force into a counter move that could injure him or Tochinoshin.

Takayasu vs Kakuryu – This will be the best test yet of Takayasu’s change in sumo. Kakuryu is a fairly even match in most cases, and I am going to look for Takayasu to try to take the Yokozuna to his chest. Should that happen, Takayasu will need to be patient, and rely on his superior stamina – wear Kakuryu down. Any rapid move to finish the match, no matter how much Kakuryu feigns an opening, may lose the match.

Haru Day 12 – Ones To Watch

After the full roster and day 11, day 12 brings only a few of our “Ones to Watch” to the dohyo for their 6th match. Day 11 action saw wins by Terunofuji, Amakaze, Roga, Naya and Midorifuji. Sadly Wakaichiro lost his 6th match, and will face make or kachi koshi his final bout. Naya remains in the Makushita yusho hunt, picking up his 6th win. Terunofuji and Roga won their day 11 matches to advance to 6-0 and remain in the yusho hunt.

Day 12 Matches

Hoshoryu vs Sakigake – Loser of this match is make-koshi. Sakigake is a former Juryo rikishi who has been working in Makushita for the last 4 years. Typically in the top 15 ranks of Makushita, Sakigake is one tough competitor, and he will be a handful for Hoshoryu.

Akua vs Ryusei – As with the match above, this is a 2-3 bracket fight, and the loser will take home a make-koshi. After a strong open, Akua has struggled to make headway against a very competitive Makushita Joi-jin. Ryusei is a 32 year old veteran, and this match may come down to who gets the inside position at the tachiai.

Ichiyamamoto vs Kototebakari – Both rikishi are kachi-koshi, and have a single loss. So this match is simply to run up the score. For Ichiyamamoto, there is a slim, outside chance that he might be promotable if he wins the remainder of his matches. Kototebakari is yet another fast-risking young hard-charger. At 19 years of age and 144 kg, he is in a “sweet spot” for Makushita.

Shoji vs Tsuyukusa – Yet another 2-3 bracket match, with the loser being make-koshi for Osaka. Musashigawa heya’s Shoji faces another young, up and coming rikishi looking to press into Makushita.

Haru Storylines, Day 11

The Yusho Race

Yokozuna Hakuho said before the basho that he felt like spoiling Takakeisho’s party. He did just that in avenging the third of his Hatsu losses, and did not let history repeat itself on Day 11, running his record to 11-0 to remain the sole leader. Tomorrow, he begins the Ozeki/Yokozuna portion of his fight card with struggling Tochinoshin.

And then there was one. Hakuho’s sole pursuer with a 10-1 record is the next great Mongolian hope, M4 Ichinojo, who toyed with M7 Aoiyama today before dropping him to the clay and into the 9-2 hunt group. Ichinojo has faced all three Ozeki, defeating two of them, and is unlikely to face the Yokozuna, but he could well be Takakeisho’s final day opponent in a potentially high-stakes bout for both rikishi. The hunt group is filled out by Yokozuna Kakuryu, Ozeki Takayasu and Goeido, and M8 Kotoshogiku.

Tomorrow, Ichinojo has what on paper is an easy match against Asanoyama (M8, 7-4), while Aoiyama also fights a lower-ranked opponent, M11 Ryuden (8-3). The heavyweight clashes at the top of the torikumi have Goeido battling Takakeisho (head-to-head 6-3) and Kakuryu taking on Takayasu in the musubi (head-to-head 12-7).

Kadoban Ozeki Tochinoshin

Tochinoshin’s loss to Takayasu dropped him to 6-5, and he needs 2 wins from 4 bouts to clear kadoban. It seems unlikely that one will come tomorrow against Hakuho (head-to-head: 1-26). The subsequent three bouts will offer better odds, but none are against easy opponents: Kakuryu, Takakeisho, and Tamawashi, each likely with something to fight for.

Takakeisho’s Ozeki Run

Takakeisho could not record a second defeat of a Yokozuna, and fell to 8-3. Like Tochinoshin, he also needs 2 wins from 4 bouts to be Ozeki in May. He will next take on the Ozeki corps, starting with Goeido, followed by a maegashira bout that may well be against a yusho-seeking Ichinojo.

The San’yaku Ranks

West Sekiwake Tamawashi (4-7) now needs to win out to maintain his rank, and can only afford one loss if he is to limit his demotion to Komusubi. East Komusubi Mitakeumi won today and needs 3 victories to defend his rank, while West Komusubi Hokutofuji lost and will relinquish his San’yaku slot after a single basho. Ichinojo is in pole position for promotion, with a number of other contenders behind him, led by Aoiyama and Kotoshogiku.

The Makuuchi <-> Juryo Exchange

Dropping out of the top division: Chiyonokuni. Taking his spot: Shimanoumi (J1e, 10-1).

Yutakayama (M16w, 3-8) is now make koshi, and his record warrants demotion, though he could conceivably survive through banzuke luck.

Toyonoshima (M14w, 3-8), Terutsuyoshi (M14e, 3-8), Daishoho (M16e, 47), and Ikioi (M9w, 1-9) are the next rikishi in the demotion queue, and could pass and save Yutakayama with sufficiently poor performances. Chiyoshoma still needs two wins to be safe, while everyone else has probably done enough to stay in the top division.

Chiyomaru (J1w, 8-3) likely locked up a return to Makuuchi today. Enho (J2w, 6-5) has hit a wall with two losses and needs to start winning fast if he wants to make a top-division debut. Tomorrow he makes his second visit to Makuuchi to take on Toyonoshima is what could be an “exchange bout.” And that’s it for plausible promotion contenders, although a few Juryo men could make a late case by winning out.

Haru Day 11 Highlights

Today was slap down / pull down day it seems. Everyone was getting pounded into the dirt or found a hand grabbing for the back of their neck. This entire basho seems to have taken to pull down / slap down in a big way, and I am hoping this is not some kind of persistent trend. While its a perfectly valid move, it can make for less than exciting sumo.

But day 11 was not lacking in exciting sumo. Our intrepid “Man in Foreign Lands” Josh was on site, and has supplied our readers with his first hand impressions yet again. Go read it now, as it’s one of the better “day of sumo” write ups you can ever read. The man knows how to do it well. I do find it troubling how frequently he an Naruto Oyakata encounter each other near the Men’s room, but I will chalk it up to cosmic coincidence.

Highlight Matches

Daiamami defeats Kotoeko – After engaging at close range, these two execute a flailing grip-battle that ends with Kotoeko in better position. But he can’t convert that to actual offensive power, in spite of Daiamami being backed to the tawara. Instead Daiamami loads a throw and Kotoeko’s strength can’t stop it.

Terutsuyoshi vs Chiyoshoma – We finally see more of Terutsuyoshi’s sumo, which is what brought him to Makuuchi. Sadly its probably going back to Juryo for a rebuild unless he can “win” out or get a healthy dose of Shodai’s banzuke luck.

Kagayaki defeats Toyonoshima – Toyonoshima gets the inside position at the tachiai, but can’t convert that to any offense as Kagayaki side steps and slaps him down. Toyonoshima is now make-koshi, and joins the list of folks who might return to Juryo.

Yago defeats Yutakayama – Close range oshi-battle that ended with what some of the shimpan thought might be a hair pull, but was deemed acceptable after a monoii. Yutakayama now make-koshi, and he has joined the denotable group.

Kotoshogiku defeats Ishiura – Ishiura never really set up any kind of offensive position, and immediately backpedaled away from Kotoshogiku. Yes, getting chest to chest with the Kyushu Bulldozer is a bad idea, but I have to believe that a small, nimble rikishi with tons of strength could have some kind of offensive move closer to his opponent.

Ryuden defeats Asanoyama – Shin-Ikioi goes kachi-koshi, which is a welcome change given his two prior basho. A protracted yotsu battle revolved around Ryuden’s ability to maintain his left hand outside grip. Asanoyama took a chance to shift his grip, and gave up forward pressure for an instant, that was all Ryuden needed to seize the initiative and take the win.

Abi defeats Shohozan – Maybe Abi-zumo is not done for yet. Against a pugilist like Shohozan, there is room for someone who will double arm you off the dohyo.

Okinoumi defeats Ikioi – Ikioi serves no purpose now but to give white stars to people. One every day. While the sacrifice is noble, it’s becoming tedious.

Yoshikaze defeats Onosho – Yoshikaze picks up his 8th win, and will mark a dramatic transition from is very timid start to the basho. At 37 years, he is not as high-energy as he once was, but it seems he can still deliver winning sumo. Onosho continues to struggle with balance, and today had some very poor foot placement in this match. I am sure Onosho is going to continue to improve, if he can avoid further injury.

Ichinojo defeats Aoiyama – A big highlight of day 11, this match which saw the two rikishi who were one behind the undefeated Hakuho battle it out. Aoiyama’s blows could stun an bull elephant, but Ichinojo absorbed them with little outward sign of effect. As Aoiyama continued to flail, Ichinojo advanced, attacking center-mass and Aoiyama quickly found himself on the defensive, and off balance. Not only was Ichinojo quite boulder-like in shrugging off Aoiyama’s attack, his sumo was hideously efficient today. He held the center of the dohyo, and made Aoiyama move, until Aoiyama lost stamina and was easy to pick off.

Shodai defeats Myogiryu – Shodai found his sumo, and gets the better of the tachiai. Myogiryu has him locked up, but tries a pull down, and throws away his position. Shodai advances and Myogiryu takes another step towards a make-koshi.

Endo defeats Hokutofuji – I don’t know if Hokutofuji has run out of energy now 11 days into the tournament, but he was even more ragged than normal against Endo. At the risk of sounding like a broken MP3, watch this match again, but only look at their feet. Endo is calm, controlled and keeps his feet very low. By contrast Hokutofuji is all over the place. His force vector is not aligned to Endo’s center mass, and everything he applies gets deflected to the side. This is a recurring theme with Hokutofuji, who loses the plot when he is chest to chest.

Mitakeumi defeats Daieisho – Mitakeumi continues at about 80% power, but in most cases its sufficient to dispatch all but the best rikishi. His fans hope that the knee damage can be healed to the point where he can operate at full strength, but as we saw with Kisenosato, the “healing naturally” is not always effective. As we saw with Ura, the medical intervention is not a guaranteed fix either.

Takayasu defeats Tochinoshin – No shoulder blast today from Takayasu, but instead the “smooth” tachiai that takes him immediately into a mawahsi fight with Tochinoshin. Both rikishi are shifting their weight drastically, attempting to gain a balance advantage over the other. Neither of them can make it stick. Takayasu gets into trouble as he concedes the center of the dohyo to the Georgian, who sets his hips for a lift. But his hips are higher, and Takayasu advances strongly before Tochinoshin can lift. Tochinoshin makes a valiant stand at the tawara, but is forced to pivot for the second day on his injured knee, and drops, frustrated.

Goeido defeats Chiyotairyu – As expected, Chiyotairyu attempts his usual lift / slap down combo. But when Goeido’s ankle is working, his balance is excellent, and Chiyotairyu can’t bring Goeido forward enough to drop him. This failed gambit left Chiyotairyu wide open, and Goeido drives inside and applied maximum force at center-mass. Nearly perfect Goeido sumo.

Kakuryu defeats Tamawashi – There was so much force flying at both rikishi’s necks that neither of them could keep their footing, and both flopped to the clay moments after the tachiai. But it was clear that not only did Tamawashi touch first, but Kakuryu executed the last “in control” sumo move.

Hakuho defeats Takakeisho – A day will come, when we see a 70 year old Hakuho, still able to fold, spindle and mutilate strong healthy rikishi in their 20s. Takakeisho brought it all out today, and Hakuho was ready. The Yokozuna landed a couple of potent round-house slaps on Takakeisho’s face, but the youngster stayed focused, on plan and on attack. To be clear, there was no defense in this match, just two rikishi blasting each other into submission. Hakuho worked out Takakeisho’s timing, and drive inside for a mawashi grip. Of course this is Takakeisho’s kryptonite, and it was time for the always enjoyable Hakuho uwatenage.