Nagoya Banzuke Prediction Postmortem

Now that the official banzuke is out, it’s time once again to review how my predictions fared.

The San’yaku

Here, my forecast was right on the money: all ten slots were predicted correctly. There was some talk about whether Shin-Ozeki Tochinoshin would leapfrog the two incumbent kadoban Ozeki, Goeido and Takayasu, in the standings. Instead, as predicted, he begins his Ozeki career at O2w (the additional wrinkle here is that he is placed on the less prestigious West side, leaving the O1e rank empty, in order to balance the two sides).

It was clear that the Sekiwake ranks would be occupied by Ichinojo and Mitakeumi, although there was some question about the order. As predicted, the incumbent, Ichinojo, is ranked ahead of Mitakeumi, who is returning to the rank after spending a tournament at Komusubi, despite Mitakeumi’s better win total (9 vs. 8) and head-to-head victory over Ichinojo. Also as forecast, the Komusubi slots are occupied by Tamawashi and Shohozan, neither of whom is a newcomer to the rank. Shodai has to settle for M1e, and is in pole position for any potential San’yaku openings should he achieve kachi-koshi in Nagoya.

The Rank-and-File

Here the forecast record is a lot more mixed. Of the 32 maegashira ranks, I correctly predicted 16, and for 11 of these I also got the side correct. Of the other 16 predictions, 13 were off by one rank, typically as a result of a switch between two consecutively ranked rikishi (e.g. 10w Nishikigi and 11e Aoiyama) or a more complex local rearrangement.

This brings me to the three more substantial misses. Two that could have been anticipated resulted from the banzuke committee’s noted bias against promotions from Juryo. I tried to take this into account by dropping Onosho and Kotoeko, who by my formula should have been ranked M8 and M11, to M9 and M12, respectively. The banzuke committee was much harsher, ranking the two M11 and M14. This is especially surprising to me in the case of Onosho, a recent Makuuchi mainstay who was only back down in Juryo for a single tournament due to injury and won the yusho with an impressive 12-3 record from J1, but nevertheless got treated like someone making his top-division debut. (I’ll note parenthetically that I correctly forecast the three promotions, Onosho, Kotoeko, and Meisei, who occupies the final M16w rung, and the corresponding demotions of Takekaze (J1e), Daiamami (J2e) and Aminishiki (J4w)).

This brings us to by far my biggest miss in this or any previous forecast, by a whopping five ranks, and one where I find the banzuke committee’s decision completely baffling. M3 Yutakayama, after putting up a disastrous 2-13 record, finds himself demoted only 6 ranks, landing at M9. My forecast had him at M14, which one could argue was slightly harsh, but even M11 would have been extremely charitable, and M9 is beyond generous. For comparison, the next-worst-performing rikishi, Ryuden, was demoted 8 ranks despite a slightly better 3-12 record. Perhaps the quality of Yutakayama’s losses was taken into account, although this is not something the banzuke committee generally engages in. It’s hard to argue that his ranking is simply a consequence of good banzuke luck, as several rikishi with kachi-koshi or minimal make-koshi records deserve to be ranked ahead of him. If anyone has an explanation, I’d love to hear it.

 

10 thoughts on “Nagoya Banzuke Prediction Postmortem

  1. Possibly the craziest damn banzuke I have ever witnessed. I am sure there is some prior ranking sheet this hard to fathom, but I am unable to recall it during my tenure as a sumo fan. I would call it “unpredictable”.

    • Given that I placed 39 of 42 rikishi either at the correct rank or off by one, I’ll take that as a compliment :-)

      But even aside from the 3 big misses, there are some real head-scratchers. Kotoshogiku and Ikioi ahead of Chiyonokuni? Takakeisho ahead of Kaisei? Endo only down to M6e? Tochiozan slotted between Arawashi and Asanoyama, who earned identical records at the same rank? I could go on. Some of these decisions were enough for someone at the sumo forum to suggest that the banzuke committee is deliberately trolling all of us trying to predict what they’ll do :lol:

      • The trolling theory is as good an explanation as any…. Maybe they all got hugely drunk and just started writing names down. Maybe the “Mole Boss” took over and started pushing names around on the big board.

    • To be honest, the banzuke committee can do whatever they want to some extent. This is why I theorized they all got drunk and let the cat do it.

  2. In any other sport they’d have a spreadsheet to work it all out. But much more fun this way, it’s a nice run up to the event going through the predictions and post banzuke debate.

  3. I think that Yutakayama’s ranking might be an outbreak of common sense. If you drop him down to the bottom of the banzuke he would likely get 12 or so wins, rocket up the rankings and the cycle would repeat itself. Instead they have put him in a slot were he is liable to get 6 to 9 wins which is a sign that a wrestler is in more or less the right place.

    By ranking Onosho so low they have given the kid a chance to post some big numbers without having to face any of the top guys (although he could probably have done the same from a slightly higher rank). Again there is some logic to it, even if it might look like weird, drunken, feline logic. But remember that this is a nation which plays “Go” a game which sees me whimpering “I don’t get what I’m supposed to be doing” after about five moves.

      • Counting territory is an art form of its own, I think. I can do it, but not at all efficiently (and certainly not as I’m playing!).

    • I dearly love playing Go. The tactics can definitely be tricky- though that’s part of what makes it so enriching and enjoyable. But given my experience with that game, and the comments on the banzuke committee on this post, I suspect that a lot of Japanese logic is derived as much from intuition as it is from solid reason.

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