State of play update: Day 11

The Yusho race

In all likelihood, it’s Yokozuna Kakuryu or M3 Tochinoshin. We haven’t had a maegashira Yusho since 2012, and before that, you have to go back to 2001.

The Sanyaku

While Takayasu achieved his kachi-koshi and placed himself on the outskirts of the Yusho race, Goeido dropped to 6-5 and is at significant risk of going kadoban.

Mitakeumi has lost four straight after his 7-0 start, and still needs to pick up a win to stay Sekiwake. With his basho-shaking victory over Kakuryu, Tamawashi staved off the loss of his Sekiwake rank for now. He still needs to win out to defend it, and to go 3-1 to only drop to Komusubi. Takakeisho also managed to stave off the loss of his Komusubi rank for another day, and he too needs to win out to maintain it.

Tochinoshin and Ichinojo have solidified their leads for the first two Sanyaku slots to open. Should a third slot open up, as is fairly likely, there really is no obvious candidate for it. With four days to go, the list of unconvincing contenders consists of Kotoshogiku, Shodai, Arawashi, Takarafuji, and Endo. Someone from this group will need to distinguish themselves over the final days.

Promotions/Demotions

Need one more win to ensure a place in the top division: Ikioi, Yutakayama, Ryuden, Asanoyama, Ishiura.

Need two more wins: Sokokurai, Nishikigi.

Need three more wins: Takekaze, Daiamami.

Will be demoted: Terunofuji, Aminishiki (unless by some miracle he goes 4-0).

Leading the promotion race: Myogiryu, Kyokutaisei, Hidenoumi.

On the bubble: Aoiyama.

 

10 thoughts on “State of play update: Day 11

  1. If Polldaddy were working, I would give you 5 stars. Love reading your analysis. Crazy that the remnants of Isegahama are about to drop out of Makuuchi.

    • And their Juryo man, Homarefuji, who seemed on his way to Makuuchi only two bashos ago, is also having a bad tournament, and has gone make-koshi. I don’t think he is in bad enough shape to drop to Makushita. But as I already said, the only two functioning rikishi in that heya are Takarafuji and Terutsuyoshi.

      • I beg to differ, Tosahikari and Daitenpaku already have a winning record. Many of the other kids still have a chance to come out positive as well.

        Course 99% of fans wouldn’t be able to pick them out of a lineup…

  2. Thanks Bruce, I’ll try to keep these going for the remaining days. For your preview: they have the two Ozeki squaring off on day 12? Poor Endo gets pulled up late in the basho to face the leading Yokozuna for the second straight tournament. HUGE Tochinoshin-Tamawashi bout! And if Mitakeumi can’t beat Okinoumi…

  3. I think Ryuden is already safe. Nominally a 7-8 (the worst he could do) would be a one rank drop, and since we have a East M17 that is ok. Asanoyama doesn’t have that cushion since he’s on the west side.

    For that same reason, I think Sokokurai only needs one and that Terunofuji is not yet demoted needing to win all 4 remaining bouts (not going to happen).

      • That’s a bit of a chicken and egg problem – is it possible to earn promotion at the expense of a “safe” maegashira in the current makekoshi-favouring climate?

          • Relative to the records that it’s likely to be compared with here in the end (something like J3w 9-6, or worse), I would say “almost certainly”. Even overdemotions by just half a rank are very unusual without a *very* compelling reason.

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