Myogiryu will likely join Terunofuji at sekiwake on the strength of his 8-7 record at komusubi. But he does have competition in the form of Tochiozan’s 10-5 record at M1. The sekiwake position is very important since it means that wrestler gets a bit of a reprieve during the first week. Does anyone know if Tochiozan will leap over Myogiryu into sekiwake?
The last time a komusubi had an 8-7 record and was not promoted was when Toyonoshima had 8 wins in Fall 2011 but repeated at komusubi in November. In that case, there were three sekiwake who all finished strongly. Kotoshogiku and Kisenosato had 12-3 records and then-sekiwake Kakuryu had a 9-6 record.
For this tournament, though, there will be at least one opening at sekiwake since Okinoumi will be demoted. Maybe there will be three sekiwake this May, Terunofuji and both Tochiozan and Myogiryu? In that case, Ichinojo and Takarafuji would probably both pick up the dreaded komusubi slots, and face the ozeki and yokozuna gauntlet during the first week. Tochinoshin & Toyonoshima will probably snag top maegashira positions, also facing a rough first week against sanyaku opponents.
With these three weak ozeki and these very strong up-and-comers, it will make for a very interesting first week. It would be nice to have several 7-0 rikishi contending going into week 2.
As cruel as it sounds, I’m really hoping for Kotoshogiku and Goeido to go Makekoshi this basho. Kotoshogiku needs to retire – I’ll miss his humpty-bumpy gappuri-yotsu style, but he’s physically shot. Goeido on the other hand just has no business being at Ozeki, and needs to head on down to a more appropriate rank.
Kisenosato still has something to offer at Ozeki (not as much as he should, but still he’s got something) but the other two don’t, in my opinion.
Yeah, I just can’t see how Kotoshogiku’s knees will hold up. Ichinojo was toying with him. And I think you’re right that it will be even more difficult for Goeido to get 8 wins on a weakened shoulder. I had a cracked finger and it was annoying for what seemed like forever. His right shoulder will be a target during every tachiai.
On a more positive note, what do you think Tochiozan’s chances are of establishing himself as a sanyaku regular and maybe making an ozeki run? I think he’s probably the best Japanese guy on the Banzuke right now, but I’m not convinced he can beat the Mongolian titans consistently