Aki Day 5 Observations and Opinions

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Special thanks to Herouth who is absolutely killing it with her commentary.

The Aki basho continues to be a chaotic swirl as the new order battles the old for the future. This is most likely the “false dawn” of this new order, as the stalwarts of sumo are not yet gone, simply too injured to compete for now. Will they be able to return? For some of them, no. At least not in any appreciable form.

Indicative of weakness in the old order, reports are coming in that Ozeki Terunofuji has once again injured his knees, and is considering just accepting the demotion and declaring himself kyujo. Meanwhile, the other surviving Ozeki – Goeido, has yet to really show us Ozeki level sumo. We have seen him strong and dominant. We have seen him crumple and fold Kisenosato, Harumafuji and Hakuho. But for whatever reason he is locked in some kind of survival mode, and he dares not fight by moving forward.

In response to Herouth’s headline – we are going to see a wave of retirements (Intai) in the next year, there can be no doubt. All that is required is for one senior / stalwart to boldly be the first to make a move for the exit, and many will follow suit. For those of us who love the “old guard”, steel your hearts. Thanks to people like Jason and Kintamayama, we will have their matches to re-enjoy online for as long as we wish. But the new age is rising now, and there are many many wonderful battles yet to be fought, and oh so many victories large and small to witness.

Match Comments

Asanoyama defeats Okinoumi – I suspect that Okinoumi could be the rikishi who breaks the Intai damn and starts the cascade. We know the guy is competing with an injury that makes him ineffective on most days. Again Asanoyama looks great, and seems happy to just have a chance to compete.

Kotoyuki defeats Endo – Wow, Kotoyuki found a way to heal up from all of the damage he was suffering from this year, and he looked very strong against Endo. I try to keep in mind that Endo is M14e, which is barely above Juryo. He has a long way to go with his recovery before he can be a solid Maegashira again.

Nishikigi defeats Takekaze – Another candidate for the “Dam Buster”, the winless veteran dropped one to Nishikigi, who is also far from full power.

Ichinojo defeats Ikioi – No longer satisfied with his career as a bridge abutment in Yamaguchi prefecture along the Shinkansen line, Ichinojo has decided to return to sumo. Granted it’s the kind of sumo you might see a bridge abutment do, but it trashed Ikioi today.

Shodai defeats Kotoshogiku – I owe a debt of thanks to Shodai. I bust him hard about his crummy tachiai, but he went a long way to preventing the now perilous “Kotoshogiku Day”. His crummy tachiai is exactly what made this match a real contest. Kotoshogiku knew that Shodai would simply stand up at the tachiai, so no henka was possible. So he had to really bring some sumo moves, but Shodai kept him from getting the gaburi-yori rolling. Well done!

Tochiozan defeats Tamawashi – Tochiozan dropped his Mongolian foe like a bag of rotten mochi. Tochiozan is capable of some amazing sumo, and I don’t know who he is renting it to this basho, but he’s actually one of the guys who could play a spoiler.

Yoshikaze defeats Hokutofuji – We love you Not Kaio, but I am very happy that Yoshikaze finally won one. Very very interested to see who comes out on top in day 6’s Yoshikaze vs Tochiozan match.

Shohozan defeats Terunofuji – I remember watching Godliza, and feeling sorry for the big monster. He was not inherently evil, he did not want to be a giant radioactive lizard. It’s clear that Terunofuji is done for a while. Sadly it might be for good.

Onosho defeats Harumafuji – Onosho continues to impress. I dearly hope we can get a functioning Ura back, because and Onosho – Ura rivalry could be infinite awesome for years to come. But Harumafuji is in trouble, and he is very close to intai as of today. Out of all the Yokozuna, he is the one I had hoped would have to most longevity, as his sumo is unique and for a good percentage of rikishi, a massive challenge. But the cumulative injuries are clearly too great for now, and it’s go kyujo or go intai, it seems.

Aki Day 3 Preview

Harumafuji-Dohyo-Iri

We have yet to start day 3, and it’s already fair to say this will be unlike any other basho for the last few years. We face the possibility of losing 2 more from the top ranks and a crowd favorite Maegashira. If all 3 who were injured on day 2 drop out of Aki, that means that both Tagonoura sekitori (Kisenosato and Takayasu) will be out, and the primary Kensho magnet (Takayasu) will be gone.

I know some readers here (and we dearly love our readers!) were uncomfortable with my prediction that Sumo’s injury problems were in the process of boiling over. But as we say in Texas, “Hold my beer”.

But it can and should rightly be pointed out that we are looking at a sekitori population that has multiple kanban rikishi at or above the average age of retirement, and that given the current sumo schedule, there are few windows for medical treatment and recovery without rather stiff demotions. Sumo is a very Darwin environment – the strong advance and the injured or lesser skilled fall away.

But even if there are no other rikishi that go kyujo this tournament, we are now up to possibly as many as 8 from Makuuchi, and half of those maybe from the Yokozuna/Ozeki ranks. Sumo as a brand stakes a lot of their draw and publicity on these top two ranks, and their decimation at Aki may take some time to recover.

Please note that some of the below matches will possibly have fusen wins if one of the rikishi announced they are withdrawing from the tournament

What We Are Watching Day 3

Tokushoryu vs Aminishiki – The REAL Ojisan, Uncle Sumo Aminishiki, comes to Makuuchi to give battle to the bulbous Tokushoryu. With NHK show it on their highlight reel? We can dare to hope.

Endo vs Kaisei – Ends has not come out strong, in spite of only having to face the lower end of the Makuuchi banzuke. Now he goes against the Kaisei, who has not been showing much in terms of speed. Their career series is nearly tied, but it will be interesting to see if Endo can muster his sumo to overpower the large Brazilian.

Daishomaru vs Okinoumi – I am very happy that Okinoumi has started 2-0, and I hope that he has his injuries under control, at least for this basho. He has beaten Daishomaru in their only prior meeting, which was at Nagoya, and one of his 5 wins for that basho.

Takanoiwa vs Ishiura – Takanoiwa has started strong, and he may be well positioned to have a “good basho” provided that he can stick to mid and lower Maegashira for the remaining bouts. Ishiura is still hit or miss, and we have to wonder if he has some chronic injury that is sapping him of his strength.

Chiyonokuni vs Ikioi – A pair of dedicated oshi-zumo practitioners, I would give a slight edge to Ikioi, who has two straight wins and leads the career total 5-2. Ikioi also bests Chiyonokuni in total mass.

Shodai vs Takakeisho – Takakeisho is eagerly throwing himself into his offense so far. He explodes off the tachiai and delivers a relentless torrent tsuppari from the start. Shodai on the other hand is looking slow and comes in high at the tachiai. Takakeisho has never won against Shodai, but I think day 3 changes that.

Ichinojo vs Ura – I expect Ura to be kyujo before this bout. If he insists on competing, I expect Ura will be kyujo after this bout. Ichinojo is looking especially unpolished this basho, but all he has to do is push Ura hard and he might break him at this point.

Chiyotairyu vs Tochiozan – Someone activated Chiyotairyu’s “Beast Mode” and he has been coming off the line strong, and overwhelming his opponents. Tochiozan, by comparison, is looking vague and overwhelmed in each of his matches. It’s hard to tell if some injury is slowing down Tochiozan, but I am going to give an edge to Chiyotairyu this match.

Tamawashi vs Onosho – Tamawashi may be able to gamberize and make it to his day 3 match. But he faces Onosho, who is delighted to have a big target like Tamawashi for his match. Onosho is the real deal right now, strong, fast and completely sure his sumo will win each time. A healthy Tamawashi could delivery a brutal lesson to the young contender, but given day 2’s wrenched ankle, Tamawashi is not likely to be at full power.

Mitakeumi vs Shohozan – Mitakeumi received a lot of elevated expectations going into the basho, but now finds himself with a cold 0-2 start. I doubt that Mitakeumi picked up any injury, so I am going to assume it’s all in his mind right now. Day 3 he faces Shohozan, who has brought his big guns to each match and unleashed hell upon his opponents. Will this be the match where Mitakeumi turns it around?

Yoshikaze vs Goeido – Yoshikaze is also suffering a cold start. And on day 3 he faces Goeido, who is likewise struggling. These two are actually a very good match, with Yoshikaze leading their career total 12-9. I would expect for Yoshikaze to try to disrupt Goeido’s attempt to overwhelm Yoshikaze at the tachiai.

Takayasu vs Hokutofuji – If Takayasu is not too injured to compete, he is going to get a strong workout from Hokutofuji. They have only met once before (in Nagoya), and Hokutofuji was the winner. But my money is on Hokutofuji getting a fusen win.

Terunofuji vs Tochinoshin – Our favorite kaiju is really struggling now, he as no wins in his first 2 days, and we can assume he is not yet even close to 100% healthy. Tochinoshin is likewise winless, but I think he has a real chance to take one from Terunofuji day 3, even though Terunofuji dominates their career totals at 8-2.

Kotoshogiku vs Harumafuji – These two veterans have met 62 times in their careers. But it is Kotoshogiku who holds a slight edge at 34-30 over Harumafuji. If Kotoshogiku can take a win against the lone surviving Yokozuna today, it would in fact be Kotoshogiku’s first kinboshi.

Aki Day 2 Highlights

Ura-Injured

The Body Count Increments Again.

Prior to the start of Aki, it was clear that this basho was going to be a jumbled and surprising event. With a number of mainstays out on medical leave, and a vigorous corps of new talent blasting their way up the ranks, it was clear that we were going to see many familiar names getting losses. But we can excuse fans in thinking that all of the injuries were accounted for up front. Sadly day 2 seems have have had a swarm of rikishi suffering lower body injuries, and one has to wonder if the yusho will simply be the last man standing.

We can start in the Ozeki, who are still suffering. Today both Terunofuji (his second) and Takayasu (his first) hit the clay. This is especially alarming for Terunofuji who has to pick up 8 wins to remove his kadoban tag. Prior to the start of Aki, I had assumed that he would be able to produce 8 wins without too much challenge. But clearly he is still recovering from surgery and not quite up to full Kaiju power yet.

Sekiwake? 0-2, both of them. Both of them are very capable rikishi. Both of them have gone down like Juryo punks in the first two days (this coming from a Yoshikaze fan). The frustration on Mitakeumi’s face was evident as Chiyotairyu put him away handily. Tochiozan shares the 0-2 start at Komusubi, and has looked a half step slower than the ranging sumo machine that went 10-5 in Nagoya. Yes, the first 3 days frequently feature favorites shaking off the cobwebs, but with the big bad Yokozuna sidelined, you would think the San’yaku would attack with a sense of purpose. The lone surviving Yokozuna, Harumafuji, is holding up fine for the first 2 days, but it’s clear to see that he’s competing in spite of the pain.

Finally it’s worth noting that Ura may have further degraded his injured knee today in his bout with Takakeisho, who was out for a clear victory, and achieved it. Ura needs to take care, and he should study the calamities that visited Endo when he was a rising star and fan favorite.

Highlight Matches

Myogiryu defeats Yutakayama – Due to the late breaking kyujo wave, there is an imbalance in the banzuke, so upper members of Juryo have been visiting Makuuchi daily to fill in the match list. Today Myogiryu, tomorrow we get “Uncle Sumo” Aminishiki.

Endo defeats Asanoyama – Endo has his hurt ankle taped, and he still looks a bit slow, but he managed to deliver a defeat to Asanoyama via a somewhat lucky slap-down. In general there seems to be traction problems with the dohyo already this basho. This after the Kyokai made a statement that they would use the same clay for every dohyo from here on out. Note – Asanoyama strikes me as one of these rikishi who is just happy to show up and get to do sumo today.

Okinoumi defeats Tokushoryu – The nature of Okinoumi’s chronic injury means his ability is more or less a day-by-day surprise package. At Maegashira 14, he has a fairly easy schedule for his “healthy mode”, which he currently seems to be in. The rather massive Tokushoryu gave him a very good contest today, but Okinoumi took his time and worked him to done.

Nishikigi defeats Chiyomaru – Solid effort from Nishikigi in his second match. He overpowered Chiyomaru and kept moving forward. Many bouts, it’s as simple as finding a way to do that.

Arawashi defeats Takekaze – Takekaze’s henka did not fool Arawashi for a moment, and it left Takekaze off balance and easy to thrust out. Who faces Takekaze and is not looking for a henka?

Ikioi defeats Kagayaki – Kagayaki needs to find a way to move beyond the “good effort” category he falls into in far too many bouts. Ikioi is quite strong, but he is a benchmark for Kagayaki – he needs to find a way to systemically defeat a rikishi like Ikioi if he wants to reach his goals of higher ranks.

Shodai defeats Ichinojo – Two large, hulking guys, wearing the same color mawashi. Moving kind of slow, seem to be kind of phoning it in. No wonder there was a Monoii. From the replay it was really hard to tell who touched out / down first. But the Shimpan did the right thing and called for a Torinaohi (re-match) and ran it again. Second run was all Shodai.

Takakeisho defeats Ura – Takakeisho blasted out of the tachiai and had Ura back and off balance. But being Ura, he attempted to distort space-time at the tawara, but his injured knee gave out as he went to evade Takakeisho’s finishing thrust. After the match it was evident that that damaged knee is now a much more damaged knee. They ended up taking him out via a wheelchair. I will be surprised if Ura sees Aki day 15, and frankly should be focusing on recuperating.

Chiyotairyu defeats Mitakeumi – This bout was all Chiyotairyu. A forearm blast out of the tachiai got Mitakeumi off balance and Chiyotairyu finished him moments later with a firm slap-down. Many fans have hopes for Mitakeumi, but at the moment he is looking really disorganized.

Onosho defeats Yoshikaze – Yoshikaze put up a good fight, but man, can Onosho really pour it on! If Onosho can stay healthy, he has a lot of great sumo to offer for years to come. Yoshikaze’s dismount looked really ragged, and I am willing to guess that he, too, lost his footing.

Tamawashi defeats Takayasu – This whole bout was all Tamawashi. I don’t know if Takayasu’s mawashi was on too tight or if he had too much sake Sunday night, but he looked surprised and unable to respond to Tamawashi’s explosive tachiai. Blasting your opponent off the dohyo at the tachiai is usually Takayasu’s forte. Worryingly, Tamawashi and Tamawashi both seem to have wrenched their ankles. Both limped off the dohyo, but moments later Takayasu rode a wheelchair back to the dressing room.

Kotoshogiku defeats Terunofuji – The Kyushu Bulldozer was able to lock up the big Kaiju and hip-pump him across the bales. It was a classic Kotoshogiku attack strategy, and it underscores that Terunofuji may not yet be ready to compete at full strength.

Goeido defeats Hokutofuji – This is more like the Goeido we wanted to see day 1. Strong, confident and committed to his attack strategy. Hokutofuji put up some firm resistance, but was not match for Goeido booted up in 2.0 mode. Watch the slow motion replay for some great upper body work by Goeido to disrupt Hokutofuji’s effective opening gambit.

Harumafuji defeats Tochinoshin – Another solid day of sumo from the surviving Yokozuna. The big Georgian went down in a quick mawashi battle that Harumafuji made look easy. When he’s on, he’s a joy to watch.

Closing note – How many more kyujo before the end of week 1?

Nagoya Aftermath – How We See It

Goeido Down

Day 15 put an end to a Nagoya basho that marked a further evolution of a trend that started with Hakuho’s injury a year ago. At that time, it was clear that “The Boss” was damaged, and no one knew if he was going to be able to return. Hakuho has been such a dominant force in sumo for an extended period of time, and his internal presence at the top of the banzuke set the rules for every basho for years.

With his win at Nagoya, Hakuho has managed to achieve back to back yusho after surgery and an extended recovery period. How long will his new reign last? Hakuho hopes at least 3 years, as he has stated yet again that he wants to perform a dohyo-iri as part of the 2020 Olympic ceremonies immediately following the Nagoya basho. His achievement of coming back after most fans (and it turns out the YDC) thought he was done, drew comment from the committee in their post basho meeting at the Kokugikan. They have decided to give Yokozuna Hakuho a special award for breaking the all time wins record and being the Michael Jordan of sumo. I am going to assume he needs to buy a shed to keep all of this stuff in. Maybe he can have Ishiura build him one with parts from Tokyu Hands.

We are in a transitional period where the old guard is either fading or staging their last mad surge of glory. We now have the next generation (I call them Tadpoles, because they mostly share the same body shape), in Makuuchi, and they are getting comfortable at the higher levels of competition. We guess that would be one of the stories at Nagoya, and it turns out it was a big continuation of the evolution in sumo.

Winners

  • Aoiyama – Jun Yusho! Congrats, prepare for your brutal fisting at Aki.
  • Takayasu – You did not choke in your first Ozeki basho. Rest up that pulled groin and bask in the fact that your peers are both kadoban.
  • Tochiozan – Not sure where that came from, but please, can we have more of this version of Tochiozan? He’s great. Calm, calculating, patient. He dismantles his opponents methodically.
  • Onosho – Two basho in makuuchi, two 10 win results. That’s big stuff. Get in line behind Aoiyama at Aki, you get to play with the big guns.
  • Ura – Yeah, you ended up with a make-koshi, but you survived a trip through the upper ranks without doing too poorly, and you got your first kinboshi. Excellent work expanded your sumo repertoire! Go heal up that knee and come back healthy.
  • Tochinoshin – When your healthy, you can really unleash some great sumo. It was great to see you genki again. I just know you are one more tweak to that knee away from being a breath away from intai.
  • Nishikigi – Never give up, never surrender. Fighting spirit like yours makes the sumo world go ’round!

Losers

  • Goeido – Kadoban again? You won Aki 2016 in a clean sweep! You are a fantastic Ozeki when you are in your groove, but it’s getting harder for you to find that groove.
  • Kakuryu – The YDC is talking about Aki being your last chance. It had to happen some time, please get well soon.
  • Terunofuji – I hope you did not damage that freshly repaired knee. Sumo needs you big kaiju.
  • Kisenosato – No, you can’t “naturally” heal a torn pectoral. Get your giant self to a surgery and get rebuilt.
  • Okinoumi – I wish there were some way you could get that painful injury repaired without retiring from sumo.
  • Gagamaru – Again we ask, “what are you doing in Makuuchi?”
  • Ikioi – Everyone wants you strong and ready to fight. Do you have one last run in you?
  • Kotoyuki – Either you get healed up, or you fade away. The modern sumo schedule is brutal, and it’s tearing you apart.
  • Kotoshogiku – You continue to fade, your spirit is strong but your body is failing your sumo. You make me sad now to watch you fight.

Thanks to all the readers who gave us yet another record breaking month. We are eternally thankful for you spending part of your day with us, and we hope you tell your friends and family about the joy of sumo. Onward to Aki!