Natsu Day 12 Highlights

Takayasu-12

Pivotal Day Did Not Disappoint.

There were indications that day 12 would be a decisive day in the Natsu basho, and it delivered. Just to review some of the items that were resolved overnight

Goeido’s Kadoban Doom – He easily defeated Aoiyama, and is now one win away from his kachi-koshi and reaffirming his Ozeki rank. To be certain, he has had a fairly weak performance this basho, but it will now likely be enough to life the kadoban doom. Day 13 he faces hapless Maegashira Takarafuji, which he should win with ease. Goeido should send flowers and sake to Kisenosato, his withdrawal scrambled to torikumi, and brought more upper Maegashira into matches in the final week than would have been normal.

Ojisan Kotoshogiku’s Fade – Mitakeumi was successful in handing the Kyushu Bulldozer his make-koshi. He will rank no higher than Komusubi come July, if he does not choose to retire and enjoy his kabu. This means we will likely be back to 2 Sekiwake as is normal, and we may see a new Sekiwake in Nagoya.

Takayasu’s Ozeki Bid – As expected, Takayasu made fairly easy work out of an injured Takarafuji, securing his 10th win. He is now eligible for promotion to Ozeki, but it is not guaranteed at this point, the NSK still must have their say. If he is promoted, and Kotoshogiku will certainly be demoted, the bottle-neck in San’yaku will be cleared, and Maegashira promotion lanes are once again open.

Highlight Matches Aplenty

*Note, almost all of the matches today were great, don’t settle for the NHK highlights, supplement them with Jason’s All Sumo Channel or Kintamayama’s great daily digest.

Onosho defeats Tokushoryu – This fast rising youngster secured his kachi-koshi. They traded attempts at slap downs, but Onosho’s connected.

Kagayaki defeats Chiyotairyu – Another rikishi with a good looking future, Kagayaki secured his winning record today. Kagayaki seems to have fixed some of the problem he had with his tachiai, and as long as he does not get into the poor habit of moving backwards, he’s going to do great stuff.

Ura defeats Hokutofuji – Again Ura engaged his hyper-dimensional plane shifting mode, and deployed something very henka flavored, but not quite “jump out of the way”, it was more of a attack from the side move. To his credit, Hokotofuji read the move well, and responded very well. But Ura was now in about 3 places at once, and only his feet were still in this dimension. He had Hokotofuji turned around and shoved from behind off the dohyo before you could even understand what he did. With 10 wins Ura is now in special prize territory. The question is, which one. One other thing that is great to see, both Ura and Hokutofuji have really excellent manners in the ring. During the Asashōryū these seemed to go out of fashion, but I am so glad these guys are bringing it back.

Takakeisho defeats Tochinoshin – What a great bout this turned out to be. Both rikishi put in a lot of effort, and brought their best sumo. Tochinoshin is wonderful to watch when he is healthy, but the smaller, rounder Takakeisho used Tochinoshin’s height and mass against him with great effect. The throw at the edge was expertly done, and both these rikishi may be in contention for well deserved special prizes.

Yoshikaze defeats Chiyonokuni – What a fantastic battle, it ranged back and forth across the dohyo, with Yoshikaze always having the upper hand, but Chiyonokuni refusing to concede. Slapping, pushing, multiple attempts at throwing each other, neither one could close the deal until Yoshikaze was able to turn Chiyonokuni to the side and push him out. I could watch that again (and I will!). Yoshikaze is going to make a great coach, and I expect he will produce a great generation of berserkers that will improve sumo for decades.

Mitakeumi defeats Kotoshogiku – Another milestone in the sunset of once Ozeki Kotoshogiku. Mitakeumi shut down at least 2 attempts to establish the hug-n-chug. I am now hoping against hope that Mitakeumi can get 8 wins, as I think it’s time he was Sekiwake. It’s rare that a rikishi can survive in San’yaku for more than 2 tournaments, and he has been fighting at Tamawashi levels for the last 2 basho.

Terunofuji defeats Shodai – This match did not disappoint. Shodai gave Terunofuji two handfuls of trouble, and many of Terunofuji’s preferred winning combos had no effect on Shodai. It should be noted that after the match, Terunofuji seems to have been hurt, and was helped back to the hanamichi by one of his elves.

Goeido defeats Aoiyama – Great day for Goeido 2.0 to take the dohyo. Aoiyama seemed disoriented and distracted, poor guy. He is better than his 2-10 record would indicate, but he and Ichinojo need to discover that bulk is only sometimes a kimarite at the upper ends of sumo.

Hakuho defeats Tochiozan – Hakuho formula for yusho cake: Head-slap, discombobulate, slap down to the clay. For the most part, the only one who can stop him now is Harumafuji, and that will come as the final bout of day 15.

Natsu Day 12 Preview

Hakuho-dohyo-iri

Potential To Be The Pivotal Day

Yokozuna Harumafuji’s inadvertent step-out on day 11 appears to have set the stage for a number of resolutions to all the story threads, and we anticipate the resolutions may come day 12. With Harumafuji having a single loss, the yuchi is for Hakuho to lose. Hakuho certainly appears to be on a run towards a perfect score, but now with Kisenosato wisely focusing on recovery, the final match of the final day will be Hakuho vs Harumafuji.

That brings us to all of the stories that now hinge on day 12 bouts. This includes (there are probably more):

  • Goeido’s Kadoban Doom – He faces Aoiyama on day 12, whom he has beaten 17 of their 20 career matches. But Aoiyama gave Terunofuji (a tougher opponent this tournament) one hell of a fight on day 11. If Goeido loses this match, his chances of ending up with 8 wins becomes very small.
  • Ojisan Kotoshogiku’s Fade – We have talked about how it’s still quite plausible for Kotoshogiku to end up kochi-koshi and remain at Sekiwake for Nagoya. Obviously the NSK wants to continue to challenge Kotoshogiku, so he faces Mitakeumi on day 12. In one match we will have the bright future challenge the glorious past. Mitakeumi could end it for Kotoshogiku today.
  • Takayasu’s Ozeki Bid – One more win for the magic 33 for Takayasu, which is the minimum number of wins across 3 basho to be considered for Ozeki promotion. The Great Sumo Cat of the Kokugikan must love Takayasu, as they have scheduled him to fight Takarafuji (who is already make-koshi, and obviously hurt) on day 12.

Add to that, many more rikishi are still battling to get their kochi-koshi and stave off demotion. We can count on the last 4 days being intense and competitive.

Natsu Leader board

Leader Hakuho
Hunt Group – Harumafuji
Chasers – Terunofuji, Takayasu, Tochinoshin, Ura

4 Matches Remain

Matches We Like

*If there is one day to supplant your NHK Digest with the great works of Jason’s All Sumo Channel or Kintamayama’s daily summary, it’s probably day 12. Too many crazy matches to let NHK pare it down.

Tokushoryu vs Onosho – The winner is kachi-koshi. There has only been 2 prior matches between these rikishi, and Tokushoryu has won them both. But it would be unwise to count out Onosho.

Chiyotairyu vs Kagayaki – Kagayaki seems to fly below the radar for now, but he is starting to get his sumo together at the Makuuchi level. He has a slight 2-1 career advantage over Chiyotairyu, who is heavier and more compact. This should be a pretty good match if nobody blows the tachiai.

Hokutofuji vs Ura – It’s clear the schedulers are setting up fun and interesting matches for the fans. Both of these sumotori have secured winning records, but now let’s see how two up-and-coming wrestlers battle. We have to wonder what trick Ura is going to deploy next, possibly linking the multiverse together and putting several dozen Ura’s on the same dohyo for a split second.

Tochinoshin vs Takakeisho – Another in the “Let’s see what happens” series of day 12, Takakeisho is more or less a bowling ball with legs. What happens when you get a tall, super strong Tochinoshin to battle against him? Hey, let’s find out!

Chiyonokuni vs Yoshikaze – Time for Yoshikaze to get his kachi-koshi bid back on track. Chiyonokuni seems dispirited and maybe a bit injured, so perhaps the Berserker can rack up a win.

Takarafuji vs Takayasu – Takayasu is looking for win #10 and his bone fide for promotion to Ozeki. Takarafuji is looking hurt and disorganzied, so let’s see if Takayasu can seal the deal.

Kotoshogiku vs Mitakeumi – Kotoshogiku is one loss from further demotion, and Mitakeumi has been nominated to test his mettle. The concern I have on this match is that Mitakeumi will likely try to lock up Ojisan, and that plays directly into the infamous hug-n-chug. So it’s time to see if Mitakeumi can revert back to his pusher ways, or if he really has the strength to defeat Kotoshogiku chest to chest.

Terunofuji vs Shodai – Third in our series of “Let’s see what happens” bouts, let’s take two big, strong rikishi. Both are kind of sloppy in their techique, preferring to use brute force above technical prowess. My money is on Terunofuji, but this one is weird enough that you can’t discount Shodai doing something unexpected and scamming up Terunofuji’s sumo.

Aoiyama vs Goeido – Believe it or not, this one is probably the decider for Goeido. It would seem on paper to be a straightforward win for the Ozeki, but Goeido has struggled to be consistent this basho.

Tochiozan vs Hakuho – One directive now for Hakuho: don’t get injured prior to the day 15 showdown.

Harumafuji vs Takanoiwa – This could be really ugly for Takanoiwa, as I am sure Harumafuji is frustrated after his day 11 loss. Still hoping for the death spin this basho.

Natsu Day 11 Highlights

Day-11-2

And Then There Was One

Overnight in Tokyo, the yusho race narrowed when Harumafuji lost to Mitakeumi. This leaves Hakuho as the sole, undefeated leader of the basho going into day 12. The bout with Mitakeumi was lost when the Yokozuna inadvertently stepped out of bounds, and the Gyoji awarded the match to Mitakeumi.

Across the board the matches were a notch above the average thus far for Natsu, with a host of close contests that were hard fought and won.

Most impressive to me was the effort that Aoiyama put up against Terunofuji. For once Terunofuji battled an opponent who was too tall and too massive to lift and eject. To his credit, Aoiyama would not surrender, and gave Terunofuji a real challenge.

Selected Matches

Takakeisho defeats Chiyotairyu – Takakeisho racks up his kachi-koshi. While he has been a fairly standard pushme-pullyou to date, he fights with a lot of energy and vigor. With any luck he will take a page from Mitakeumi’s book and increase his skills in yotsu-zumō (belt fighting and throws).

Hokutofuji defeats Daishomaru – Last basho was the first tournament where Hokutofuji did not have a winning record, and it’s great to see him come roaring back. I continue to believe that if Hokutofuji can stay healthy, he is going to be a big deal. In today’s match, he blasted Daishomaru off the dohyo in a very convincing manner.

Ikioi defeats Kotoyuki – Crowd favorite Ikioi also secures his kochi-koshi, and in the process Kotoyuki is injured. This is notable in that he exited the dohyo in a wheel chair. Kotoyuki went kyujo for day 9 for a single day, and returned. Now he seems to be more severely injured.

Ura defeats Shodai – I am sure Shodai has watch full speed and slow motion replays of this bout a few times, and would really like to know what on wizardry took place. He had Ura pinned at the edge, and suddenly a tear in space-time opened again (as Ura is known to do), and suddenly Shodai is stumbling off the dohyo and Ura is high stepping back to his side. Centuries from know, physicists are still going to be working out the math this guy uses to phase between universes. Ura now has 9 wins and is cruising towards a special prize, as well as a possible visit by the Nobel committee.

Endo defeats Yoshikaze – This match was all Yoshikaze, but he could not finish Endo. After multiple to throw, lift out and move over the tawara, Ends rallied and turned the tables on Yoshikaze. Very nice effort from both, and I am sure Endo was happy to avoid make-koshi.

Kotoshogiku defeats Chiyonokuni – Ojisan Kotoshogiku easily deploys the hug-n-chug against Chiyonokuni, and just like that the Kyushu Bulldozer lives on another day.

Takayasu defeats Tochiozan – Tochiozan put up a stiff fight, but Takayasu finally got his 9th win, and is now 1 win away from the 33 win threshold to be considered for promtion to Ozeki. This is likely to come day 12 when Takayasu faces already make-koshi Takarafuji.

Terunofuji defeats Aoiyama – A battle of two giants, this match raged as a contest of strength that was frankly, kind of epic. I have not been much of an Aoiyama fan ever, but today he impressed me. The man-mountain stood his ground against the Kaiju and stalemated him for an impressive length of time.

Hakuho defeats Goeido – Goeido 2.0 showed up today, but we have the REAL Hakuho right now, and there is likely no one who can defeat him this tournament. Goeido is now in real trouble, as he needs to find 2 more wins in the next 4 days somehow to save his Ozeki rank. There is the very real and very silly possibility that Nagoya may see 4 Sekiwake, two of them dethroned Ozeki. Nuts.

Mitakeumi defeats Harumafuji – Mitakeumi clearly had control of the match from the tachiai, but the match ended when Harumafuji seems to have inadvertently stepped out. I would say that Harumafuji does seem to be favoring one leg over the other, and we might assume that he actually did injure himself on day 9.

Natsu Day 11 Preview

kaiju mode
Ozeki Terunofuji Headed to McDonalds In Ryogoku, 11:22 PM Tuesday

We Start The Final Act

As we begin the last 5 days of this awesome tournament, it’s time to check up on a few of our story threads

Takayasu’s Ozeki Run – I would declare this on uncertain footing but still quite possible. Takayasu needs to face another Yokozuna who is currently unbeaten, and both Ozeki, one of which is operating in kaiju mode. That leaves him with 2-3 plausible wins, so still possible.

Injured Yokozuna Corps – Kakuryu already has withdrawn. He is probably facing pressure now to retire. He can in fact hang his hopes of delaying that by his November yusho in Fukuoka. Kisenosato insists on competing even though he lacks the strength in his upper body to present a reasonable threat to the upper San’yaku. Harumafuji and Hakuho have reverted to their genki forms, and are unbeaten and undeterred. It’s wonderful to see them both back to their former potency, and we are reminded of how they dominated everything sumo for years.

No-Zeki – Goeido is kadoban, this tournament, and is only 6-4 as of today. It’s not too far of a stretch to think he can pick up 2 more wins, but that’s very weak performance for an Ozeki. This week he faces all 3 Yokozuna, so I would guess at least 2 more losses are inbound. His match with Tamawashi may be the decider. Terunofuji on the other hand seems to be in the same mode he was in during Osaka. That of a rampaging sumo powerhouse with unbeatable strength. He has yet to face any Yokozuna, and I am guessing that he has a fair chance of beating any of them, except Kisenosato. I think he could actually injure Kisenosato.

Mitakeumi’s Komisubi Residency – He was out to strong start, but then hit some very rough patches. Now, Mitakeumi is in real danger of going make-koshi and being pushed back to rank and file Maegashira. I personally don’t think that’s going to harm him, as there is still a bunch of brush clearing that needs to take place in San’yaku before the promotion lanes are actually open. He has faced all of the Ozeki, but still needs to get by Harumafuji on day 11. After that he should draw some easier matches, and may end up 8-7 if he is not too discouraged.

Ojisan Kotoshogiku – We are at day 10, and he is still not make-koshi. His next loss seals his demotion, but he has faced both Ozeki and all three Yokozuna. Is it possible he can win his last 5 matches and escape demotion? Yes, but it would be highly improbably. But look at who he is likely to face: Chiyonokuni (2-8), Okinoumi (1-9!), Daieisho (2-8), Aoiyama (2-8)? We get to Tochiozan before we find a rikishi who is looking strong. So don’t write of Kotoshogiku yet. Then there is the thought of a Shodai – Kotoshogiku match, which might be a big deal.

Upper Maegashira Blood Bath – Ranks M1 – M5 contain 10 rikishi, only 3 of them have even or winning records. This is not atypical by any means, as the upper Maegashira are frequently the punching bags of the San’yaku, but the last few basho had been relatively gentle on these folks. But Natsu has brought the pain back with vengeance.

Juryo Meat Grinder – Upper Juryo is in worse shape than anything I have seen in some time. None of the top 6 Juryo ranks has anyone with more than 6 wins. Without a strong leader or leaders, it throws the promotion picture into chaos. It’s clear that a number of rikishi will be booted out of Makuuchi, but are any of these Juryo guys worthy to replace them?

Osunaarashi In Trouble – He is 1-9 right now. Given that the NSK has given him brutal demotions in the past, it’s reasonable to ask how far down the banzuke he will fall. It was clear from watching him in person that his multiple, unrecovered injuries have robbed him of the physical presence he used to command.

Natsu Leader board

LeadersHarumafuji, Hakuho
Chasers – Terunofuji, Takayasu, Shodai, Tochinoshin, Ura

5 Matches Remain

* Note, we are almost to the point where the math required for anyone to catch Hakuho or Harumafuji becomes unworkable.

Matches We Like

Kaisei vs Toyohibiki – In spite of his injuries, it seems Kaisei decided he is not going back to Juryo, no matter what. He needs 2 more wins to make that a reality. He has a 10-5 career advantage over Toyohibiki.

Tochinoshin vs Tokushoryu – Tokushoryu trying for kachi-koshi against a resurgent Tochinoshin. I am looking for Tochinoshin to employ his massive strength and size advantage if he can grab the mawashi, Tochinoshin will be thrusting with everything to keep the big Georgian away.

Chiyotairyu vs Takakeisho – Less of a mismatch than a M7 vs M14 bout should be. If Takakeisho wins, he claims his kachi-koshi. But Chiyotairyu has beaten him 2 out of their 3 times they have matched before. I would guess Chiyotairyu is going to try for a quick slap down before Takakeisho can set his feet and start his sumo.

Ura vs Shodai – Also a match likely better than you would expect with a M10 vs M5 bout. Ura deploy his quantum sumo against Shodai’s flawed tachiai. As Ura will probably go low and crazy, it’s going to be fun to see how Shodai reacts. This is their first ever match. May be the best match of day 11.

Endo vs Yoshikaze – Time to see if Endo learned anything from the Mitakeumi vs Yoshikaze bout. I am guessing he did not. Interestingly enough, these two are tied 5-5 over their career. Endo is looking a bit off now, and may be hurt, where Yoshikaze seems to actually be enjoying himself almost as much as Hakuho is.

Kotoshogiku vs Chiyonokuni – Yes, Chiyonokuni is already make-koshi, but he has not been phoning in his matches. He has stepped on the dohyo each day with a plan to win, and he has given it his all. Kotoshogiku has a narrow path to hold onto Sekiwake, and the next step is defeating Chiyonokuni.

Tochiozan vs Takayasu – This is a must win for Takayasu. Given the brutality of the rest of his schedule, he needs to bank this win. Tochiozan is stronger this basho than he has looked since Nagoya 2016, so it’s not a foregone conclusion. Also of note is Tochiozan leads the career matches 18-5, so he has a habit of beating Takayasu. Much as Kintamayama seems to play on it, it does seem true that Takayasu is a chronic worrier, and it may restrain his sumo on day 11.

Terunofuji vs Aoiyama – The only question is what look of pain Aoiyama will have on his face moments after the tachiai. Kailua for the win over the man shaped meat mountain.

Hakuho vs Goeido – Only Goeido 2.0 has a chance here, and it would be so very magical if he appeared and battled Hakuho to a win. But reality says Hakuho is going to play with Goeido for a bit, then toss him around. Success here means that Goeido can come out of it without an injury.

Harumafuji vs Mitakeumi – I am still hoping to see the death-spin. It’s been many months since Harumafuji tried to put a man in orbit, and I do so hope he can pull that one out this basho. Mitakeumi is still going to be a big deal in a while, but day 11 he gets to “enjoy” Harumafuji.

Kisenosato vs Tamawashi – Although Kisenosato has won all 9 of their prior meetings, Tamawashi has a fair chance against the one-armed Yokozuna. I am still looking for Kisenosato to do the responsible thing and go kyujo.